Rumor: Bears to Fire Nagy after Thanksgiving

[DABEARSDABOMB]

6 hours ago, adam said:

Right now CB2 is the biggest hole on the team, however, like you said, the team can't go into next year with Mooney and a ton of vets on 1 yr deals in the WR room. So CB/WR are my first two picks. There are some options at Center, you can draft one, or slide Whitehair or Daniels (after extension) back to Center and draft another Guard. However, is Center a bigger hole than Safety right now? Listening to Olin Kreutz, he doesn't think Mustipher is playing that bad. So I would almost put Safety or ILB ahead of Center. Those are definitely the top 5 needs and should be addressed with a high draft pick or a quality FA signing. 

I am prioritizing the offense - so yeah, I could argue safety is a bigger hole than Center, but you know what, the center protects the biggest investment on this team (Fields) so that makes center more important. Similarly - I feel the same way about wideout and the value it will have on Fields. I also think safety is a position you can change via free agency and other spots too.  

And Mustipher is not good. I Liked him last year and maybe he will grow as season goes on, but his physical limitations are becoming obvious. He's a good depth/back-up guy, not strong enough to be a quality starting center.  

[Mongo3451]

2 hours ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

I am prioritizing the offense - so yeah, I could argue safety is a bigger hole than Center, but you know what, the center protects the biggest investment on this team (Fields) so that makes center more important. Similarly - I feel the same way about wideout and the value it will have on Fields. I also think safety is a position you can change via free agency and other spots too.  

And Mustipher is not good. I Liked him last year and maybe he will grow as season goes on, but his physical limitations are becoming obvious. He's a good depth/back-up guy, not strong enough to be a quality starting center.  

We are in lockstep on this matter.  First two picks should be C and WR, in no certain order.  Until Fields is rolling, give him every weapon possible.  It all starts up front.

[adam]

The only issue with going into the draft with the mentality of only drafting from one or two positions at any pick is you really run the risk of overdrafting a player that is nowhere near the pick value than the other positions. Unless it is QB, you have to go in with 4-5 positions of need for every pick, then select the best overall player from that pool. If not, you end up with a ton of Adam Shaheens.

[adam]

I was thinking about how all the injuries have really impacted the season. You could even start that with the Dalton injury against CIN, which led to that horrible game against CLE. Is Nagy going to get a pass like Shanahan has for injuries? Mack out for the season, Trevathan out of the season. Cohen and Jenkins have yet to play. Ifedi, ARob, Montgomery, Jackson, Hicks all have missed time. Roquan may be out, Fields out, etc. 

What was surprising to me, with all of those, the Bears are still one of the top 10-12 healthiest teams in terms of missed games this year:

That should be enough to ensure Nagy doesn't get a get out of jail free card for this season. If anything, teams like the Giants and Jets have more of justification based on how many games their players have missed.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

6 hours ago, adam said:

What was surprising to me, with all of those, the Bears are still one of the top 10-12 healthiest teams in terms of missed games this year. 

Borrowing from the term ‘there’s an app for that’, there really is a stat for everything.  I’d like to see something like this for how the refs each directly influence a win/loss of a game.  Bears bubble would be pretty big.  As would any team that plays GB or TB.  

[adam]

15 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Borrowing from the term ‘there’s an app for that’, there really is a stat for everything.  I’d like to see something like this for how the refs each directly influence a win/loss of a game.  Bears bubble would be pretty big.  As would any team that plays GB or TB.  

You are right AG, there is literally a stat for that. I was looking at snap counts and then subtracting from the total snap counts to get a "snap count lost" but by team, that was taking too long.

I don't know if they account for guys like Cohen, and since rookies don't have AV from last year, how they account for those values (Fields and Jenkins). I would assume the Bears are closer to the middle of the pack if you account for those.

On penalties, the challenging piece is there is no record-keeping for "missed penalties" or "no-calls" that favor a team. That is where the problem lies because if you just look at net penalties for and against, TB is the worst in the league with a -24 net (24 more calls against them than the opponent) and the Bears are 9th worst (-8). That doesn't tell the whole story. Without the missed calls, it is very hard to quantify the impact to a game unless you track the win probability by play to plot the difference before and after a specific penalty or play (no-call). That is a little easier to find.

[Lucky Luciano]

2 hours ago, adam said:

On penalties, the challenging piece is there is no record-keeping for "missed penalties" or "no-calls" that favor a team. That is where the problem lies because if you just look at net penalties for and against, TB is the worst in the league with a -24 net (24 more calls against them than the opponent) and the Bears are 9th worst (-8). That doesn't tell the whole story. Without the missed calls, it is very hard to quantify the impact to a game unless you track the win probability by play to plot the difference before and after a specific penalty or play (no-call). That is a little easier to find.

the crucial factor in bad, missed or no calls, is the timing. it's not the amount of penalties a team has as a whole, it is a case of WHEN the refs decide to penalize a team in the game that factors in the win/loss factor. 

i have seen this numerous times through the decades of watching pro football - a team gets a critical call on a offense or on defense that is beyond the pale. later in the game the so called 'make up calls' usually happens when the game is getting to the point of certainty of who will win or lose. if not that then limiting the scoring (shaving points) to hold a final score within certain gambling parameters.

in example, a holding call... on offense the same call could have been called nearly ever single play but a ref decides at this critical juncture in the game to drop a flag? secondary defense... same goes for pass interference or holding. both teams do the same type of foul at numerous times throughout the game yet one is called at a critical time for no apparent reason.

this sets the tone for the entire game when points are shaved from the board due to referee interference.

let's face it, the NFL purposely has left the rules vague over the last several decades at least. how else could this be justified in a multi billion dollar corporation? the NFL doesn't make enough money to be able to hire full time referee's and hold them accountable to their job performance? it's ludicrous.

the league has no desire to see games regulated in a fair manner probably due to market share and the dollar and cents bottom line for the owners. the way it's set up the rules/penalties are determined by an individual referee at his own discretion (or the gambling syndicates) and NOT by the rule book. at any given time a referee can drop a flag and be correct OR not drop a flag and be correct at the same time.

factor in not only the market share/profits but the gambling factions. this is big, big money. who would have thought 30 years ago that the nfl would actually condone a team moving to the gambling capital of the united states?

 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

So here we are…week three (or so) of the Nagy fire-sale. And so far…nothing.  People chant “fire Nagy” at NFL games, at NBA games, NHL games, at Collegiate games and unfortunately even at Nagy’s own kid’s game.  Yet there he is, still making a mess of things.  Take for example this current conundrum.  
 

Noone can get a fix on Fields’ injury.  It’s possible he could go to IR or he could be back next week.  Right now it sounds less likely he’ll be playing in GB.

Then we find our Dalton was injured in yesterday’s game.  Something about his hand during a tackle.  Late in the game (about late 3rd quarter) I saw him holding his non-throwing shoulder after one of the few sacks against AZ.  So who really knows.
 

Which means Foles could be up.  Here’s a video of him back in August showing how ready he is to go in and put it on the line for the Bears:  

 

[DABEARSDABOMB]

On 12/3/2021 at 3:29 PM, adam said:

The only issue with going into the draft with the mentality of only drafting from one or two positions at any pick is you really run the risk of overdrafting a player that is nowhere near the pick value than the other positions. Unless it is QB, you have to go in with 4-5 positions of need for every pick, then select the best overall player from that pool. If not, you end up with a ton of Adam Shaheens.

I agree - that is why I kind of said certain positions are what you need to tackle - you still have to follow relative draft board, free agency and trade and figure out best way to go get those items.  If a great safety is there and the wideouts aren't good - you draft the safety and find another way to get the wideout.  

[adam]

Now there are rumors that if the Bears lose bad to the Packers on SNF, that Nagy could be fired on Monday. Just like the last rumor, take it for what it's worth. Even if the Bears somehow win out and make the playoffs, I don't know if that would be enough to save Nagy's job. Since the PIT game, it feels like he has been a dead man walking and the team seems to be playing that way.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

11 minutes ago, adam said:

Now there are rumors that if the Bears lose bad to the Packers on SNF, that Nagy could be fired on Monday. Just like the last rumor, take it for what it's worth. Even if the Bears somehow win out and make the playoffs, I don't know if that would be enough to save Nagy's job. Since the PIT game, it feels like he has been a dead man walking and the team seems to be playing that way.

Mooney had a weird quote saying if Fields is hurt it sure doesn't look like it. That might be more of just him implying Fields is looking more like himself or maybe the Bears are being extra protective and want to position Fields to really play following GB game (where he has a shot to finish the season on a nice run).  

[AZ54]

3 hours ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

Mooney had a weird quote saying if Fields is hurt it sure doesn't look like it. That might be more of just him implying Fields is looking more like himself or maybe the Bears are being extra protective and want to position Fields to really play following GB game (where he has a shot to finish the season on a nice run).  

Does Mooney have x-ray vision?  How else to know if the cracks in the ribs have healed?  These were minor cracks that the team did not want to become serious issues.  I agree with that, we need to make sure Fields is playing at or close to full strength while he's still learning the game.   I'm sure there was some soft tissue injury around the impact site.   That might have been what caused the most pain breathing, twisting, and could well be healed up enough to allow Fields to throw. 

Reading Nagy's quote earlier in the week it was obvious that even if Fields is ready to start they are not going to release that until game time.  That's the right approach.  His deep passing skills definitely alter the defense's approach at least to some extent.  

[adam]

Cracked ribs take about 6 weeks to heal. If they are not going to play him now, they might as well put him on IR for the remainder of the season. I almost think they are just going to keep calling it day to day/week to week for the rest of the season. I could be wrong and that would suck, but I wouldn't put it past them at this point.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

And like that - he is starting on Sunday. 

[adam]

1 hour ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

And like that - he is starting on Sunday. 

Bears by 20!