Current 2022 Draft Capital

[adam]

With 1 week to go, the Bears are in a logjam at 6-10. They now can draft no higher than #7 but can fall as low as #13. Here is a look at #7 - #13 and their remaining schedules:

7 - SEA 6-10, .517 ARZ
8 - CHI 6-10, .521 MIN
9 - WFT 6-10, .531 NYG
10 - ATL 7-9, .461 NO
11 - DEN 7-9, .478 KC
12 - MIN 7-8, .467 GB, CHI
13 - CLE 7-8, .467 PIT, CIN

Here are the scenarios for each draft spot:

13th - beat MIN, then have WFT, ATL, DEN lose next week and MIN and CLE both lose their last two. Very low chance that the Bears win AND 6 other losses happen. WFT is playing the Giants and are the only team that would have the better SOS than the Bears.
12th - Everything the same but one of the current 7-win teams or WFT win one game. This is the most likely if PIT beats CLE on MNF.
11th - Everything the same but two teams win out of the current 4x 7-win teams and WFT. This seems the most likely with WFT beating NYG and CLE beating PIT.
10th - beat MIN and 3 teams out of WFT, ATL, DEN, MIN, and CLE win at least one game.
9th - I don't see any scenario where the Bears can finish 9th
8th - loss to MIN, SEA loss to ARZ
7th - loss to MIN, SEA beats ARZ

 

The most likely outcome looks like 8th with a loss or 11th/12th with a win depending on what CLE does tomorrow night.

[adam]

Projections at halftime:

7 - SEA 6-10, .518 ARZ
8 - ATL 7-9, .462 NO
9 - MIN 7-10, .515 
10 - DEN 7-10, .482  
11 - CHI 7-10, .520
12 - WFT 7-10, .532 
13 - CLE 7-9, .524 

Drafting 11th would seem like a fitting position because that is what they traded up to for Fields. 

[adam]

LOL, Andy Dalton assures the Bears get a better draft pick by completely crapping the bed in the 2nd half. So the Bears slide back to 8th unless SEA beats ARZ, then they would draft 7th. 

7 - SEA 6-10, .518 ARZ
8 - CHI 6-11, .520 

[adam]

If SEA ends up with the same record as the Bears, depending on SOS, the Bears may draft 7th, which would give them the 8th pick in the 2nd round (#40). So it is better for the Bears to get #8 in the first as they would get the 7th pick in the 2nd (teams rotate picks with same record). So I am hoping for #8 and #39. 

[DABEARSDABOMB]

13 minutes ago, adam said:

If SEA ends up with the same record as the Bears, depending on SOS, the Bears may draft 7th, which would give them the 8th pick in the 2nd round (#40). So it is better for the Bears to get #8 in the first as they would get the 7th pick in the 2nd (teams rotate picks with same record). So I am hoping for #8 and #39. 

The loss was nice in sense we get some earlier 2nd round picks and other rounds too. 

[adam]

4 hours ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

The loss was nice in sense we get some earlier 2nd round picks and other rounds too. 

Yep and in the end, it was probably the best scenario as ATL, SEA, and WFT all won. So the Bears are the lone 6-11 team and will have the 7th pick in every round. That is pick 39 in the 2nd, and pick 71 in the 3rd. 

So the Bears top two picks are 39 and 71.

[killakrzydav]

Atlanta lost

[adam]

9 hours ago, killakrzydav said:

Atlanta lost

Yep, the Bears loss dropped them to #7. ATL was already a win ahead, so they only came into play with a Bears win.

[AZ54]

Lewis Cine would look good in a bears uniform.  

[Mongo3451]

10 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

Lewis Cine would look good in a bears uniform.  

You like how he stuck that RB didn't you?  ?

[AZ54]

12 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

You like how he stuck that RB didn't you?  ?

Yes I did. Imagine that closing ability working behind Roquan who likes to get underneath the blocks?    Pretty sure Williams just fell to us in the draft.    

[Mongo3451]

2 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

Yes I did. Imagine that closing ability working behind Roquan who likes to get underneath the blocks?    Pretty sure Williams just feel to us in the draft.    

I like it too...

[adam]

10 hours ago, AZ54 said:

Lewis Cine would look good in a bears uniform.  

He was flat out dominant. That would be a 180 for how most of our current safeties play. 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

23 hours ago, AZ54 said:

Pretty sure Williams just fell to us in the draft.    

Is that a good thing?  See he tore his ACL when he crumpled to the ground.  He’s not exactly the ‘big body’ receiver I think of even though he measures 6’2.  Seems a bit thin.  I did see he played with Fields at Ohio State before transferring to Bama last season so there’s that.  

[ASHKUM BEAR]

 I seen Olave on the sim and made the pick. He seems to be slipping to late 1st lately so maybe he could drop to the 2nd. 

Your Picks:
Round 2 Pick 7: Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State (A) - slim chance but possible. Bears add a familiar target for Fields. 
Round 3 Pick 34 (N.O.): Brandon Joseph, FS/SS, Northwestern (A+) -traded down and have landed a hometown kid who can be a ballhawk. Can play both S positions.

Round 3 Pick 35 (N.O.): Jeremy Ruckert, TE, Ohio State (A+)- Another familiar target for Fields. Great blocker that takes advantage of targets.  
Round 5 Pick 5: Zach Charbonnet, RB, UCLA (A+) - Big RB with speed, like Javonte Williams. Runs through players, has good vision. Bears need to run the ball and wear opponents down. Keep stacking RBs. 

Round 5 Pick 7: Cole Strange, OG, Chattanooga (A+) - small school G that has the attention of many scouts. Push Daniel to C, Whitehair to RG and Strange to LG. 

Round 5 Pick 18 (N.O.): Josh Paschal, DE/OLB, Kentucky (A+) - universal defensive lineman at Kentucky, play him like Parsons in Dallas. 
Round 6 Pick 23 (ARI): Joshua Williams, CB, Fayetteville State (A+) small school CB that has attracted attention with his 6-3 length, quickness and knack to be a downhill defender.
Round 7 Pick 24 (ARI): Jeremiah Hall FB/RB, Oklahoma (A+) - would like to see a true FB back in the stable again.
 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

3 hours ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

 

 I seen Olave on the sim and made the pick. He seems to be slipping to late 1st lately so maybe he could drop to the 2nd. 

Your Picks:
Round 2 Pick 7: Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State (A) - slim chance but possible. Bears add a familiar target for Fields. 

 

Anyone who has played with Fields; Olave,  Garrett Wilson or even Jameson Williams (who played with Fields in 2020) would be great options.  Williams is probably gonna slip in the draft too with his recent ACL injury.  
 

With pairings like Burrow and Chase in Cincy and Hurts and D. Smith in Philly can’t help but think Fields pairing up with one of his college mates would be a huge boost to his production.  

[DABEARSDABOMB]

6 hours ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

 I seen Olave on the sim and made the pick. He seems to be slipping to late 1st lately so maybe he could drop to the 2nd. 

Your Picks:
Round 2 Pick 7: Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State (A) - slim chance but possible. Bears add a familiar target for Fields. 
Round 3 Pick 34 (N.O.): Brandon Joseph, FS/SS, Northwestern (A+) -traded down and have landed a hometown kid who can be a ballhawk. Can play both S positions.

Round 3 Pick 35 (N.O.): Jeremy Ruckert, TE, Ohio State (A+)- Another familiar target for Fields. Great blocker that takes advantage of targets.  
Round 5 Pick 5: Zach Charbonnet, RB, UCLA (A+) - Big RB with speed, like Javonte Williams. Runs through players, has good vision. Bears need to run the ball and wear opponents down. Keep stacking RBs. 

Round 5 Pick 7: Cole Strange, OG, Chattanooga (A+) - small school G that has the attention of many scouts. Push Daniel to C, Whitehair to RG and Strange to LG. 

Round 5 Pick 18 (N.O.): Josh Paschal, DE/OLB, Kentucky (A+) - universal defensive lineman at Kentucky, play him like Parsons in Dallas. 
Round 6 Pick 23 (ARI): Joshua Williams, CB, Fayetteville State (A+) small school CB that has attracted attention with his 6-3 length, quickness and knack to be a downhill defender.
Round 7 Pick 24 (ARI): Jeremiah Hall FB/RB, Oklahoma (A+) - would like to see a true FB back in the stable again.
 

Please let Olave be there - done and done. 

[adam]

10 hours ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

Please let Olave be there - done and done. 

I can't see him making it out of the first, if he does, he will go within the first 2-3 picks in the 2nd. The only way the Bears can get him is with a trade up. 

[AZ54]

On 1/11/2022 at 7:02 PM, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Is that a good thing?  See he tore his ACL when he crumpled to the ground.  He’s not exactly the ‘big body’ receiver I think of even though he measures 6’2.  Seems a bit thin.  I did see he played with Fields at Ohio State before transferring to Bama last season so there’s that.  

Sorry for the long delay.  I think anytime 1st Rd talent falls into the 2nd Rd it benefits us.  He's not a blue chip player but this at least gives us the chance to evaluate his injury and if a full recovery is likely take a chance.  With he and Metchie both injured it also gives us a chance to trade back in 2nd and still have a shot at them.  All I want is the most talent possible on the board when we choose.