Confidence Level in Justin Fields

[adam]

What are your thoughts about Justin Fields? Is he the real deal, or is he another Ohio State QB?

DVOA has him 30th with -29.3%, QBR has him dead last (31st) with 25.2. His QB Rating is 73.2. Those all are historically low and rarely do QBs improve significantly in any of these metrics. They do improve, but even with normal improvement, he would only get to fringe starter, which is somewhat alarming.

So is he capable of improving his DVOA from -29.3% to something like +10%? That would be a 40% increase, which rarely happens. DVOA rarely fluctuates more than 20-25% season to season. So 40% would be massive for one season.

In the same offense, with a smaller sample size, Foles has a 98.5 QB Rating, and Dalton has a 79.9 this season.

I am just wondering what your confidence level is that Fields will turn this around? I was much higher on him earlier in the season, but with 10+ games under his belt, he hasn't taken that next step while other rookies like Davis Mills have looked very solid. 

I think this will take more than a year. My belief is he will improve next year, but it won't be a breakout year. That will come in year 3 (2023) and that will be the best year cap-wise the Bears have had in a long time.

[Mongo3451]

What I see from Justin is mixed.  He shows promise with the deep ball and improvisational plays.  He is very weak on processing the speed of the game, as he often is late to deliver.(this was Mitch's major flaw as well)  He is also weak on moving around in the pocket.(Mitch also)  He also hasn't shown the ability to throw players open.(Mitch again) I've never read a critique on his release, but it could be a lot quicker.  His delivery is long and smooth which helps with the deep ball accuracy, but also gives defenders an edge on everything under.

Above are my thoughts from a few weeks ago and they have not changed.  Fields has the potential, just like Mitch.  Coaching, scheme, personnel and being at the right place at the right time mean everything.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

Funny you ask, was just thinking about this on my drive into work.  What sparked that was a show I was listening to on ESPN speculating about how Tua was going to eventually turn out for Miami. This after Miami won over New Orleans last night while riding a 7 game winning streak.  The question was whether Tua was the long term answer for Miami and how he was shaking out compared to his draft mates in Cincy (Burrow) and LAC (Herbert).  If you ask me it seems a bit premature to predict how well Tua will play long term in only his 2nd year while dealing with the injuries he's had.  And if the Dolphins have won 7 straight because of his play then the answer seems obvious.  Anyhow....

Back sometime after the draft was over I was a bit skeptical about the Bears choosing Justin.  I didn't see him as having 'it' and other than a feeling I couldn't really explain it.  He proved himself to be a QB similar to others I hoped the Bears would've picked before him (Watson with his two NCAA championship appearances for Clemson and Dak Prescott for what he did while at Mississippi State).  Once he came to the Bears and displayed his football IQ and work ethic I warmed to him pretty quick.  Still in the back of my mind I was curious why Urban Meyer (with the first overall pick available to him) didn't go with Justin rather than Lawrence.  I get that Lawrence was ranked higher than Fields but with Urban only a few years removed from Ohio State it seemed fitting he'd want a QB more familiar with his system to help him embark on his NFL HC duty.   

All that being said, I get the concern about the lowly stats and wonder sometimes what it is he's doing when he makes some of the mistakes he's made.  But I have to remind myself this is his first year in the NFL and mistakes happen, especially for rookie QBs.  Add to that he doesn't have the coach or really the supporting players he needs to make that leap.  You have to consider that Andy and Nick have had ALOT of experience to include playoff and Super Bowl games and still have made some mistakes while in Chicago.  Give Justin some more time and a better HC and he'll impress a lot more people than just us.  

PS:  I'll reiterate another 'hot take' I had earlier this year in that Kellen Mond and Justin will be fighting for NFC North supremacy in the years to come.  

[AZ54]

My confidence level is not as high as it was at the mid-point of the season but even then that was all based on optimistic hope.  I still see some signs of progress but signs of him not seeing things well enough.  Even the easy things like screens.  Further he appears to be playing somewhat distracted, disinterested, or maybe it's just plain frustration with this offense.  Something is clearly upsetting him and that shows in his post game comments where he talked about the lack of discipline on the offense.  I think it was after the Vikings game he said maybe it's time for players to run some laps when mistakes are made in practice even if it's him.    Whether he intended to or not, that's calling out the coaches. 

I think Fields has no respect whatsoever for ARob.  Mooney has been working out with Fields after practice since training camp and it shows.  ARob has been headed for his car as fast as he can.  Considering ARob was supposed to be making Fields job easier, Fields has come off that target and we've seen him even more focused on Mooney, Byrd, and most recently Grant.  There have been more TE targets in his last 4 games as well which is something everyone was asking for weeks ago.   

I'm glad he's been starting so many games.  For next year I hope he fixes the slow processing time, perhaps we'll get a glimmer of hope for that in the last games.  Maybe a new offense and coach will help with that but I understand the caution in expecting a big leap.   

   

[Pixote]

Payton Manning as a rookie threw more Interceptions than TDs and had a 71.2 QR

Give him a Good HC, a OC who knows how to utilize his skill set, and a better OL to protect him and this kid will be fine.

TBH, would Mahomes, Brady, or Rodgers have had very much success with what Fields was given to operate under?

[adam]

The Urban Meyer thing is baffling to me as well. If Urban thought so highly of Justin, who beat Clemson and Lawrence, why didn't he choose him? How about SF, NYJ, DEN, CAR, they all passed on Fields. I still love the pick, and even though we gave up Kadarius Toney and a top 10 pick in 2022 for him, I think it is worth it.

I was preparing myself for the Bears to select Jones. Based on where the team was at, aging defense, I thought he was the most NFL ready, but had the lowest ceiling of all the QBs. So when we got Fields, I was shocked, especially at #11. 

When I ask some friends who are not Bears fans, most say they like Fields, but they don't think he is anything special. Most figure he will be a bottom-half QB with some extra mobility. I hope they are wrong and he ends up a top 10 QB. 

 

[adam]

I still can't believe ARob. He had me fooled as this true professional athlete, but it was all a facade. He was all pissy about playing on the tag and his play makes sense. He was playing not to get hurt. 

I saw a Twitter post asking if we should resign him. I am like not no, but hell no. How can that guy be trusted acting like that as a supposed veteran WR. 

[Mongo3451]

6 minutes ago, adam said:

The Urban Meyer thing is baffling to me as well. If Urban thought so highly of Justin, who beat Clemson and Lawrence, why didn't he choose him?

He never played for Meyer.  Plus, Ryan Day ran his own system with Justin.

[AZ54]

1 hour ago, Pixote said:

Payton Manning as a rookie threw more Interceptions than TDs and had a 71.2 QR

Give him a Good HC, a OC who knows how to utilize his skill set, and a better OL to protect him and this kid will be fine.

TBH, would Mahomes, Brady, or Rodgers have had very much success with what Fields was given to operate under?

We've already seen some of Mahomes when he loses his elite weapons and he comes down to earth.  He struggles too with INTs when his pass protection breaks down.   He's really good when he gets 7s to pass like he did against Pittsburgh this past weekend.  Rodgers too can be more human when his surrounding talent drops a bit.  Just take Adams off the field and the offense looks much different.   Both Mahomes and Rodgers have elite arm talent and still make insanely good throws during their "average" games.   In some aspects Fields has shown some of that as well.   

Brady on the other hand does not have elite arm talent but it's enough these days and he's accurate.  He just seems to keep on truckin' regardless of who is on the field with the caveat being when he has Gronk you can't stop him. Or maybe nobody can stop Gronk.  Brady is so good on the field he might even be able to make Nagy look good as an OC.  He's so good at the quick decision and throw that your only chance is to cover up receivers early and then hope the pass rush gets there before they break open.  He knows the weakness of your coverage and who and where they'll get open later in the play.  

[ASHKUM BEAR]

2 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

He never played for Meyer.  Plus, Ryan Day ran his own system with Justin.

Thank God JF is not playing well because if he was, then we would get another 4 years of Nagys offense.  Teams know they can pressure JF and he will make mistakes.  Good players and coaches figure out how to beat that and right now JF and Nagy cannot figure it out.

[adam]

13 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

He never played for Meyer.  Plus, Ryan Day ran his own system with Justin.

Damn you are correct, he was at Georgia in 2018. I totally forgot about the transfer.  So this makes it a lot better. 

[Connorbear]

I'm not going to judge him until he goes through a full training camp as the #1 with a new coaching staff. 

Peace

[jason]

I didn’t like him predraft nearly as much as almost all others. I absolutely HATED the trade to get him. What I will say, however, is that I’ve warmed to him and I think he has shown glimpses despite dragging the Nagy, OL, and WR anchors.

So I’m optimistic, but wary.

[lemonej]

Justin Fields is a work in progress mainly because of his experience in college and current NFL head coach. For him to not be taking snaps from the beginning of TC and now being put under the microscope makes me think this head coach is dodging how he treated the other first round QB under his tutelage.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

7 hours ago, lemonej said:

Justin Fields is a work in progress mainly because of his experience in college and current NFL head coach. For him to not be taking snaps from the beginning of TC and now being put under the microscope makes me think this head coach is dodging how he treated the other first round QB under his tutelage.

I think Nagy never wanted to start Fields. Quite frankly I think Nagy was right and Bears would have been better off with Fields watching from sidelines for longer. But McCaskey reportedly butter in and Dalton got hurt. I am okay with Fields not playing as he was on a rising trajectory until Baltimore and since thay injury I have seen too many new bad habits like jump passes and other crap. He needs an offseason where he focused on making quick and scripted plays…even if simplified with two quick reads they need to do that to protect him.

[adam]

On 1/2/2022 at 4:29 PM, DABEARSDABOMB said:

I think Nagy never wanted to start Fields. Quite frankly I think Nagy was right and Bears would have been better off with Fields watching from sidelines for longer. But McCaskey reportedly butter in and Dalton got hurt. I am okay with Fields not playing as he was on a rising trajectory until Baltimore and since thay injury I have seen too many new bad habits like jump passes and other crap. He needs an offseason where he focused on making quick and scripted plays…even if simplified with two quick reads they need to do that to protect him.

Nagy mismanaged it from the start. Fields got zero reps with the 1s in the offseason, then was running the scout team before getting thrown into Cleveland with arguably the worst (and most predictable) game plans I have ever seen. Then the team gets their bye and Nagy comes out with hot garbage against BAL. 

I just don't know what Fields is/was getting sitting on the bench. It's not like you can see what is going on from the sidelines half the time anyway. Also, it's not like watching Dalton is going to do anything for him other than a "don't do that" type of play. 

Half of Fields' mistakes have been when he was trying to do too much. You really don't get to those mistakes until you are in a game. So I think it is fine that he is getting them out of the way now. 

Throw the ball away, have better ball security at all times, and learn how to slide. If he does that, he magically cuts down on 85% of his turnovers. I just don't know how sitting on the sidelines allows him to get better at any of those things since most are situational.

You also don't build any sort of timing with receivers, cadence rhythm with O-Line, etc, if you are not starting, and those are some of the things that look off when he is out there.

 

 

[AZ54]

4 hours ago, adam said:

Nagy mismanaged it from the start. Fields got zero reps with the 1s in the offseason, then was running the scout team before getting thrown into Cleveland with arguably the worst (and most predictable) game plans I have ever seen. Then the team gets their bye and Nagy comes out with hot garbage against BAL. 

I just don't know what Fields is/was getting sitting on the bench. It's not like you can see what is going on from the sidelines half the time anyway. Also, it's not like watching Dalton is going to do anything for him other than a "don't do that" type of play. 

Half of Fields' mistakes have been when he was trying to do too much. You really don't get to those mistakes until you are in a game. So I think it is fine that he is getting them out of the way now. 

Throw the ball away, have better ball security at all times, and learn how to slide. If he does that, he magically cuts down on 85% of his turnovers. I just don't know how sitting on the sidelines allows him to get better at any of those things since most are situational.

You also don't build any sort of timing with receivers, cadence rhythm with O-Line, etc, if you are not starting, and those are some of the things that look off when he is out there.

 

 

Baker is learning a bit how Justin Fields felt in that game as he got sacked 9 times tonight.