Roster Going Forward...

[Mongo3451]

20 hours ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

Poles value chart.  1.QB, 2.OTs, 3. Pass Rush 4. CBs 5. LBs, 6. FS.

Tells you how he might view the draft and FA.

Bears may look OT and CB with 2nd and 3rd if they don't see a OLT on the roster.  

That's exactly how I value good players, but I count CB's and S's as DB's.  When we are talking elite vs good vs average the scale shifts accordingly.

 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

2 hours ago, adam said:

So Fields, Jenkins/Borom, Mack/Quinn/Gipson, Johnson/Graham/?, Smith/Trevathan/?, Jackson?

Hole to fill: CB2/3

Upgrades are needed: OT, CB2/3, ILB2 and potentially FS.

Pretty hard not to include WR1 in that. So I still think it is OT, CB, WR as the top 3. 

And I don't think he won't look WR or another position before but those are the list of supply/demand in his eyes.  KC took a RB in the first which in Jason's list is a huge no-no.  If KC had to do it over again, I bet they don't take him again.

[adam]

Somehow Poles and Co revamped the entire KC O-Line in one offseason and literally had 7-8 starter caliber players in that room to start the season with less cap to work with than the Bears have this year.

However, I hope he is better at the cap than his Veach and Pace. Interesting to look at the KC cap for this year compared to the Bears, here are their top 5 players in terms of cap hit:

1. Mahomes $35.8M
2. Jones $29.4M - IDL
3. Clark $26.3M - Edge
4. Hill $20.6M - WR
5. Thuney $17.8M - LG
Top 5: $129.9M ~ 62.4% of total cap

1. Mack $30.1M - Edge
2. Quinn $17.1M - Edge
3. Jackson $15M - FS
4. Whitehair $12.3M - LG
5. Goldman $11.8M - IDL
Top 5: $86.3M ~ 41.5% of total cap

KC has 5 players making more than every player on the Bears roster outside of Mack.

With Frank Clark making $26M, Mack's $30M doesn't look that bad, and Quinn's $17M is a steal. Whitehair making $5M less than Thuney and Goldman (even for how bad he played) making $17M less than Jones. Then we have Mahomes out of his rookie deal compared to Fields on Year 2. The Bears are in so much better shape than the Chiefs right now in terms of cap space.

[Stinger226]

Do we have players on the roster that can fill those spots? Borom will play somewhere, if he's stays at OT, then a OC or OG. Jenkins has yet to prove he can play, but I think he has the physically and attitude. If they have to pay Daniels 8 to 10 then maybe he decides to spend 12 and get Ryan Jensen. It is unrealistic to think he can get a LT that's starts day one but its possible to find a RT that could do that. 

Ideally sign Orlando Brown and Ted Karras and your Oline is set with Whitehair, Bosom and Jenkins. Then in the draft grab your WRs (2). A CB, SS and LB. Resign Nichols for 3T. 

So do we keep Travathan for MLB?  Can Snowden, Jeremiah Attaocho, Sam Kamara, and Ledius Mack play anywhere? There are all on the roster. 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

30 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

Do we have players on the roster that can fill those spots? Borom will play somewhere, if he's stays at OT, then a OC or OG. Jenkins has yet to prove he can play, but I think he has the physically and attitude. If they have to pay Daniels 8 to 10 then maybe he decides to spend 12 and get Ryan Jensen. It is unrealistic to think he can get a LT that's starts day one but its possible to find a RT that could do that. 

Ideally sign Orlando Brown and Ted Karras and your Oline is set with Whitehair, Bosom and Jenkins. Then in the draft grab your WRs (2). A CB, SS and LB. Resign Nichols for 3T. 

So do we keep Travathan for MLB?  Can Snowden, Jeremiah Attaocho, Sam Kamara, and Ledius Mack play anywhere? There are all on the roster. 

Wouldn't it be something to sign O Brown and Jensen.  Oline is locked for a few years.

Draft you can find WR, S, ILB to fill out the roster

[Stinger226]

1 hour ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

Wouldn't it be something to sign O Brown and Jensen.  Oline is locked for a few years.

Draft you can find WR, S, ILB to fill out the roster

If the oline is important to Poles,  then at least sign one stud. They say Jensen will be around 12 mil a Year, Orlando Brown, 20 mil , Armsted, 18 mil, and Cam Robinson around 16.. Cheaper options would be Ted Karras-OC,  5 to 6 mil. Mark Glowinski OG 8 mil. Frankly I would be okay with any of those additions.

[AZ54]

3 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

So do we keep Travathan for MLB?  Can Snowden, Jeremiah Attaocho, Sam Kamara, and Ledius Mack play anywhere? There are all on the roster. 

These are great questions.  We have so little invested in any of them that we should just take a wait and see approach.   Move them to where ever they fit best and if it doesn't work send them on their way.   There will be plenty of low level competition brought in that fits what we need.  

Among that list Snowden likely has the most potential.  If he can gain 15-20 lbs and the strength to anchor against the run game he can easily play DE as a backup for us.  He has the frame for it and it's the position he played in college.  I doubt his ceiling is higher than backup but he is a pretty good athlete.   Despite that, at 6'7" I can't see him having enough lateral quickness to play at the 2nd level.  Let him use those 35" arms to attack the OTs.  

[adam]

9 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

Do we have players on the roster that can fill those spots? Borom will play somewhere, if he's stays at OT, then a OC or OG. Jenkins has yet to prove he can play, but I think he has the physically and attitude. If they have to pay Daniels 8 to 10 then maybe he decides to spend 12 and get Ryan Jensen. It is unrealistic to think he can get a LT that's starts day one but its possible to find a RT that could do that. 

Ideally sign Orlando Brown and Ted Karras and your Oline is set with Whitehair, Bosom and Jenkins. Then in the draft grab your WRs (2). A CB, SS and LB. Resign Nichols for 3T. 

So do we keep Travathan for MLB?  Can Snowden, Jeremiah Attaocho, Sam Kamara, and Ledius Mack play anywhere? There are all on the roster. 

I am thinking Attaocho is gone. He has a $3.1M cap hit and they could save $1.9M by cutting or trading him prior to June 1st. Post June-1st cut saves $2.7M with only 400K dead money. 

Snowden should see more time behind Quinn as a DE. The Bears lack the traditional 4-3 LBs. If Smith is going to be Darius Leonard, then he is going to be the Will. That would put Trevathan in the Mike leaving the Sam open. 

Even though they say the switch is no big deal (from 3-4 to 4-3), the one place it does impact is roster construction because Edge guys go from LBs to DL, so you ultimately shrink your DL from 3 spots to 2 and your ILBs go from 2 to 3 full time LBs. So the Bears need to grow some LBs and change some of their IDLs. Now the Bears need a true 3-Tech and NT.

What can Goldman play? Blackson was a pleasant surprise down the stretch, can he play 3-tech? Mario Edwards?

I know they talk about making a scheme to fit the players, but if we truly are going to a 4-3 base, we don't really have the personnel at this time. Depending on where Smith plays (M or W), you need the other one, Trevathan can probably play M, but I am concerned about his ability to drop back into the seam on passing plays. Then we still need a Sam. For the D-Line, Hicks would be great as the 3-Tech, but we would need a better NT. Tonga is good as a backup, but Goldman is not a NT or 3T. 

[adam]

6 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

If the oline is important to Poles,  then at least sign one stud. They say Jensen will be around 12 mil a Year, Orlando Brown, 20 mil , Armsted, 18 mil, and Cam Robinson around 16.. Cheaper options would be Ted Karras-OC,  5 to 6 mil. Mark Glowinski OG 8 mil. Frankly I would be okay with any of those additions.

Brown or Armstead, then someone like Karras would be awesome. 

You could slide Borom inside and go with Armstead/Whitehair/Karras/Borom/Jenkins. Based on what Poles wants in his O-Linemen and team, I don't think they are signing Daniels or Mustipher. 

[lemonej]

Here in Chicagoland Sports Mockery is ridiculed because Erik Lambert writes most of the articles he posts based on secondhand unconfirmed information.

He didn't get the Nagy fired after Thanksgiving game right and he was totally off on the GM and Head Coach hire. Just read the posts from SM for entertainment especially in the comments.

Man I miss Jeff Dickerson(RIP)!

[Connorbear]

18 minutes ago, lemonej said:

Here in Chicagoland Sports Mockery is ridiculed because Erik Lambert writes most of the articles he posts based on secondhand unconfirmed information.

He didn't get the Nagy fired after Thanksgiving game right and he was totally off on the GM and Head Coach hire. Just read the posts from SM for entertainment especially in the comments.

Man I miss Jeff Dickerson(RIP)!

JD was the best. 

Peace

[adam]

1 hour ago, lemonej said:

Here in Chicagoland Sports Mockery is ridiculed because Erik Lambert writes most of the articles he posts based on secondhand unconfirmed information.

He didn't get the Nagy fired after Thanksgiving game right and he was totally off on the GM and Head Coach hire. Just read the posts from SM for entertainment especially in the comments.

Man I miss Jeff Dickerson(RIP)!

What I find ironically comical is the fact that he calls his site Sports Mockery, he ain't lying there! He is just a news aggregator but spins the titles just enough to make it his own then referencing the source in the article. Pretty funny when he falls for the fake news postings.

There is so much misinformation out there, besides the actual beat writers, the only other legitimate blogger that has been Jeff Hughes, aka @dabearsblog. He nailed the GM, HC and several of the assistant hirings.  At one point the beat writers were using him as a source lol.

[Stinger226]

Eric Lambert blocked  me on Twitter as I criticized one of his articles. He outright lied about his content. 

[adam]

8 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

Eric Lambert blocked  me on Twitter as I criticized one of his articles. He outright lied about his content. 

He is one of the bigger frauds, I have no clue why anyone would follow him other than for comic relief.

[adam]

If the Bears feel Thomas Graham can play CB2, I am thinking they are going to go all-in on offense this offseason and only fill the holes on defense with guys on one year deals.

Would you be ok with going 2 OL and 1 WR with the first 3 picks?

[ASHKUM BEAR]

12 hours ago, adam said:

If the Bears feel Thomas Graham can play CB2, I am thinking they are going to go all-in on offense this offseason and only fill the holes on defense with guys on one year deals.

Would you be ok with going 2 OL and 1 WR with the first 3 picks?

I think they fill the Mike LB with the first 3 picks. 

No specific order, I see them going WR, G, and MLB. 

They either re-sign G-Daniel's or let him walk and sign C-Jensen.  Then draft a G which is easier to find in the middle of the draft. 

[AZ54]

17 hours ago, adam said:

If the Bears feel Thomas Graham can play CB2, I am thinking they are going to go all-in on offense this offseason and only fill the holes on defense with guys on one year deals.

Would you be ok with going 2 OL and 1 WR with the first 3 picks?

Wit the scheme change I can see them going in any number of directions in the first 3 picks. 

3-tech DT if the talent falls them in Rd 2 why not?   Especially on a team with DB issues.  

Oline  any of OC/OT/OG all depending on where they think the existing players fit best and it will all be a mystery to us until after the draft.    

WR I could see in Rd 2 but I also feel like there is depth available later in the draft.  

Safety:  Our starters were so bad they made their backups look good when they were on the field.  Would I take Lewis Cine in 2nd/3rd?  Absolutely  

CB:  

With this roster overhaul imminent for me it's easier to state what we don't need early:  RB, QB, and DE with Oline needing something we just don't know where.   We have 2 chances to get starter level players on day 2 and need to make those choices count.  

[Stinger226]

I think they will take BPA at areas of need. Depth at WR may push that back . I think they will prioritize OL , whether OC, OG, or  OT. There is 7 OL prospects in the top 30. If one drops, they will grab him. DTs are another area of strength in the draft.  If you look at free agent CBs, every year there are a few good ones that get cheap prove it contracts. Rasul Douglas comes to mind. 890,000 last year.,p I think he spends all his money on Offense this year. The players he grabs for defense will be 2nd and third wave types . 

 

[Mongo3451]

12 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

I think they will take BPA at areas of need. Depth at WR may push that back . I think they will prioritize OL , whether OC, OG, or  OT. There is 7 OL prospects in the top 30. If one drops, they will grab him. DTs are another area of strength in the draft.  If you look at free agent CBs, every year there are a few good ones that get cheap prove it contracts. Rasul Douglas comes to mind. 890,000 last year.,p I think he spends all his money on Offense this year. The players he grabs for defense will be 2nd and third wave types . 

 

Yup!

[adam]

So I did some deeper digging and came up with this scenario:

If the Bears only cut Goldman, Attaochu, and Cohen, they will have about $33M to spend after the rookie pool and need 18 more players. My assumption is they will have at least 2 UDFAs make the roster (need 16 more) and possibly bring back 7 guys (need 9 more) from last year who are not currently signed. Those 7 guys would cost around $10M to bring back based on last year's salaries (James, Holtz, Horsted, Bars, Ogletree, DHC, and Grant). So after UDFAs and those 7, the Bears would need 9 more players. I figure 4 guys will come in as vet min deals, 2 on offense and 2 on defense, leaving 5 key free agents for approximately $19M.

$37M ~ 23 players
Rookie Pool $4.4M (5 players)

$33M ~ 18 players
UDFAs: not counted on top 51 (2 players)
Resignings: $10M (7 players)
Vet Min: $4M (4 players)
Key FAs: $19M for 5M/5M/3M/3M/3M (5 players) ~ Poles can backload some of these to make this year's cap hit not be so high.

You can easily flex out of resignings and into vet minimums if you don't agree with those and it ends up relatively the same cost.

This scenario does not account for any restructures or additional cuts or trades. I am sure Poles will make some additional space as needed for in-season moves or to free up a little more to sign someone of high interest.

Here is something I didn't know: Only 26 players on the 2021 roster made more than $1M, 15 made between $800K and 999K, and 12 made under $800K. So the bottom 27 averaged $850K and took up only $23M of the cap.

If you project similar numbers to 2022. The Bears have 15 players making more than $1M (not counting the 3 cuts); so simple math says they will bring on approximately 11 more players who will make more than $1M. I figure that will include the 2nd and 3rd rounders, the 5 key FA additions and 4 of the resigned players (Grant, James, Ogletree, and DHC). 

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The roster then looks something like this:
QB: Fields, Foles
RB: Monty, Herbert, RB3
TE: Kmet, James, Horsted, Holtz (TE4/RB4)
WR: WR1, Mooney, WR3, Newsome, Webster (KR)
C: C1, Bars (L/G3)
LG: Whitehair, LG2
RG: RG1, Borom (RG2/RT2)
LT: Jenkins, LT2
RT: RT1, RT3

DT: DT1, Tonga, Blackson, Edwards
DE: Mack, Quinn, Gipson, Snowden
MLB: Trevathan, Ogletree
S/WLB: Smith, SLB, WLB2, Johnson, Kamara
CB: Johnson, CB2, Graham, Shelley, Vildor, DB6
FS: Jackson, DHC
SS: SS1, SS2

K: Santos
P: Winslow
LS: Brinkley

* Key acquisitions in bold (7)
* Italics are not roster locks and can be easily replaced with min deal players (8)

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I feel like the 2nd and 3rd rounders and the 5 key FAs need to be starters. They have to replace ARob (WR1), Mustipher (C1), Daniels (RG1), Hicks (DT1), Nichols (DT2), Gipson (SS1), with an upgrade needed at CB2. If you consider OT a need for Borom or Jenkins, then you have to remove one of the other spots, probably DT2 as part of the top 7.

 

So the question is, what are your top 7 holes to fill this offseason using the 2nd and 3rd rounder, and 5x mid-tier FA signings?

I am going with (in no order): WR1, C1, RG1, DT1, SS1, CB2, and RT1 (replacing DT2). That would overhaul the O-Line with 3 new players and a new top WR. On defense, they get a solid CB2, SS1, and DT1 as upgrades. 

I would feel pretty good about the roster going into 2022 if constructed like that, and Poles can restructure to bring in a bigger fish if he wants to as the Bears will be in a great cap situation in 2023 and beyond. 

[Mongo3451]

1 hour ago, adam said:

You can easily flex out of resignings and into vet minimums if you don't agree with those and it ends up relatively the same cost.

I have a question on vet minimums.  I thought at one time that vet minimum salaries did not go against the cap.  What's the rule on that now?

[adam]

32 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

I have a question on vet minimums.  I thought at one time that vet minimum salaries did not go against the cap.  What's the rule on that now?

The vet minimum contracts do count against the cap if they are within the top 51 salaries on the team. 

There are two things at the team's disposal, the Minimum Salary Benefit (MSB) and the Four-year qualifying contract. The first one makes the vet minimum contract only count against the cap like a player with 2 less years (saves a couple hundred K per player). The second one allows a team to sign a player or two to a qualifying contract and the team can sign them for up to $1.25M more than the cap hit. So traditionally, these savings only amount to $1-2M per year and rarely more than that.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

I am simple. There are some great tackles available and I want one fa wideout and one he drafted wide out. Fill the rest however they want based upon available talent and second/third wave of free agency. 
 

 

[Mongo3451]

2 hours ago, adam said:

The vet minimum contracts do count against the cap if they are within the top 51 salaries on the team. 

There are two things at the team's disposal, the Minimum Salary Benefit (MSB) and the Four-year qualifying contract. The first one makes the vet minimum contract only count against the cap like a player with 2 less years (saves a couple hundred K per player). The second one allows a team to sign a player or two to a qualifying contract and the team can sign them for up to $1.25M more than the cap hit. So traditionally, these savings only amount to $1-2M per year and rarely more than that.

Thank you!

[Stinger226]

11 hours ago, adam said:

So I did some deeper digging and came up with this scenario:

If the Bears only cut Goldman, Attaochu, and Cohen, they will have about $33M to spend after the rookie pool and need 18 more players. My assumption is they will have at least 2 UDFAs make the roster (need 16 more) and possibly bring back 7 guys (need 9 more) from last year who are not currently signed. Those 7 guys would cost around $10M to bring back based on last year's salaries (James, Holtz, Horsted, Bars, Ogletree, DHC, and Grant). So after UDFAs and those 7, the Bears would need 9 more players. I figure 4 guys will come in as vet min deals, 2 on offense and 2 on defense, leaving 5 key free agents for approximately $19M.

$37M ~ 23 players
Rookie Pool $4.4M (5 players)

$33M ~ 18 players
UDFAs: not counted on top 51 (2 players)
Resignings: $10M (7 players)
Vet Min: $4M (4 players)
Key FAs: $19M for 5M/5M/3M/3M/3M (5 players) ~ Poles can backload some of these to make this year's cap hit not be so high.

You can easily flex out of resignings and into vet minimums if you don't agree with those and it ends up relatively the same cost.

This scenario does not account for any restructures or additional cuts or trades. I am sure Poles will make some additional space as needed for in-season moves or to free up a little more to sign someone of high interest.

Here is something I didn't know: Only 26 players on the 2021 roster made more than $1M, 15 made between $800K and 999K, and 12 made under $800K. So the bottom 27 averaged $850K and took up only $23M of the cap.

If you project similar numbers to 2022. The Bears have 15 players making more than $1M (not counting the 3 cuts); so simple math says they will bring on approximately 11 more players who will make more than $1M. I figure that will include the 2nd and 3rd rounders, the 5 key FA additions and 4 of the resigned players (Grant, James, Ogletree, and DHC). 

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The roster then looks something like this:
QB: Fields, Foles
RB: Monty, Herbert, RB3
TE: Kmet, James, Horsted, Holtz (TE4/RB4)
WR: WR1, Mooney, WR3, Newsome, Webster (KR)
C: C1, Bars (L/G3)
LG: Whitehair, LG2
RG: RG1, Borom (RG2/RT2)
LT: Jenkins, LT2
RT: RT1, RT3

DT: DT1, Tonga, Blackson, Edwards
DE: Mack, Quinn, Gipson, Snowden
MLB: Trevathan, Ogletree
S/WLB: Smith, SLB, WLB2, Johnson, Kamara
CB: Johnson, CB2, Graham, Shelley, Vildor, DB6
FS: Jackson, DHC
SS: SS1, SS2

K: Santos
P: Winslow
LS: Brinkley

* Key acquisitions in bold (7)
* Italics are not roster locks and can be easily replaced with min deal players (8)

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I feel like the 2nd and 3rd rounders and the 5 key FAs need to be starters. They have to replace ARob (WR1), Mustipher (C1), Daniels (RG1), Hicks (DT1), Nichols (DT2), Gipson (SS1), with an upgrade needed at CB2. If you consider OT a need for Borom or Jenkins, then you have to remove one of the other spots, probably DT2 as part of the top 7.

 

So the question is, what are your top 7 holes to fill this offseason using the 2nd and 3rd rounder, and 5x mid-tier FA signings?

I am going with (in no order): WR1, C1, RG1, DT1, SS1, CB2, and RT1 (replacing DT2). That would overhaul the O-Line with 3 new players and a new top WR. On defense, they get a solid CB2, SS1, and DT1 as upgrades. 

I would feel pretty good about the roster going into 2022 if constructed like that, and Poles can restructure to bring in a bigger fish if he wants to as the Bears will be in a great cap situation in 2023 and beyond. 

Wow, you did a good job on this. A few things,  I think Sam Kamara at 6'2"- 290 will be considered a 3 T. I also think they may bring back Nichols , he can play both DT spots and seen his contract at Around 6 mil. The only other DT available that played as much was Jarod Reed/ KC . He is 30, Nichols 26. I tink we could be bringing back Christian Jones. He started while in Detroit and was productive. If they need a cheap option st SAM, he could be a temporary get. 

2 Ss available that had ties to Eberflus  is George Odum and Malik Hooker. Both could come cheaply.