Article on Velus Jones

[adam]

Interesting article, just using age as a comparison of other WRs that had their breakout year at 23 or later. 

https://beargoggleson.com/2022/05/06/velus-jones-chicago-bears/

The top 2 WRs on the list are Cooper Kupp and Van Jefferson. That's basically it. That is out of 37 WRs in that same group. 

I understand their point, that an older player is more fully developed, so they have an easier time against 19 and 20 year olds that are still developing. 

 

The Bears passed on Abraham Lucas, OT, Christian Harris, LB, Travis Jones, DT, Bernard Raimann, OT, Jalen Tolbert, WR, Dylan Parham, OG, and David Bell, WR. 

I really hope he works out and proves everyone wrong, otherwise this may end up as Poles' Shaheen pick. 

[Mongo3451]

3 hours ago, adam said:

I really hope he works out and proves everyone wrong, otherwise this may end up as Poles' Shaheen pick. 

He traded up for Shaheen in the 2nd didn't he?  Not close, especially when George Kittle went much later.  Poles is OK.

[tshanno]

Yeah, a few things about Jones.

1.  I also see the point but there are definite advantages to Jones' age, I think.  If you watch the video of Jones' press conference the other day and compare it to, say, Trestan Ebner's, I think you can really see the effect that the extra couple of years can have on a player.  Jones was patient, thoughtful, didn't let any of the questions throw him.  He was unhurried in his answers and had far less tendency to sort of ramble when a question took him by surprise.  That's not a knock on Ebner.  In a couple years, especially as a pro, he might look exactly the same.  But if Jones plays like he talks, he could make a lot more progress a lot more quickly.

2.  I was really wary when the Bears drafted Jones.  When I hear the words "gadget" and "versatile" and "utility knife", my antennae go up.  In my experience, players like that can be long on media hype and short on production.  Tarik Cohen was an exception but otherwise, a lot of the time those words mean "mediocre at a lot of things but very good at none".   I really , really hope that the coaching staff is smart enough to let this guy get good at one thing, say playing in the slot, then expand his role gradually from there.

3.  I was listening to Dane Brugler cover the draft live as part of The Athletic Football Podcast  and his immediate reaction was to acidly comment, "I guess they needed a kick returner".  That encapsulates my fears in a nutshell.

What give me hope that Jones might be different is reflected in the attached PFF grades on him as a prospect.  Jones has a lot of below average grades and I'm sure he needs work on a lot of things.  But look at that separation percentage, especially in single coverage.  That's the 99th percentile, guys.  And the YAC is 91st percentile.

That's why the Bears drafted him.  I've no idea how that's going to translate to the pro game but the result could be really exciting.  Or it could be really disappointing.  But either way its going to be interesting. 

[adam]

10 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

He traded up for Shaheen in the 2nd didn't he?  Not close, especially when George Kittle went much later.  Poles is OK.

Kittle went in the 5th didn't he? I was just saying there were a lot of guys on the board that could contribute immediately in areas of need. Jones seemed like a reach/project pick, which are normally selected in the later rounds. The Shaheen pick will always be worse, but it was similar in the fact that there were guys on the board in the same round that would've clearly been a better pick.

[adam]

1 hour ago, tshanno said:

Yeah, a few things about Jones.

1.  I also see the point but there are definite advantages to Jones' age, I think.  If you watch the video of Jones' press conference the other day and compare it to, say, Trestan Ebner's, I think you can really see the effect that the extra couple of years can have on a player.  Jones was patient, thoughtful, didn't let any of the questions throw him.  He was unhurried in his answers and had far less tendency to sort of ramble when a question took him by surprise.  That's not a knock on Ebner.  In a couple years, especially as a pro, he might look exactly the same.  But if Jones plays like he talks, he could make a lot more progress a lot more quickly.

2.  I was really wary when the Bears drafted Jones.  When I hear the words "gadget" and "versatile" and "utility knife", my antennae go up.  In my experience, players like that can be long on media hype and short on production.  Tarik Cohen was an exception but otherwise, a lot of the time those words mean "mediocre at a lot of things but very good at none".   I really , really hope that the coaching staff is smart enough to let this guy get good at one thing, say playing in the slot, then expand his role gradually from there.

3.  I was listening to Dane Brugler cover the draft live as part of The Athletic Football Podcast  and his immediate reaction was to acidly comment, "I guess they needed a kick returner".  That encapsulates my fears in a nutshell.

What give me hope that Jones might be different is reflected in the attached PFF grades on him as a prospect.  Jones has a lot of below average grades and I'm sure he needs work on a lot of things.  But look at that separation percentage, especially in single coverage.  That's the 99th percentile, guys.  And the YAC is 91st percentile.

That's why the Bears drafted him.  I've no idea how that's going to translate to the pro game but the result could be really exciting.  Or it could be really disappointing.  But either way its going to be interesting. 

I really hope he surprises everyone and makes Poles look like a genius. If they had him rated over all those other guys, then there was a reason for it.

The fear on any of the stats, especially ones that are not receptions, yards, TDs, etc, is how much of that was due to the fact that he was just more developed as an adult man playing against 19 yr old kids?

If he ends up just being a returner, then it was a bad pick. If he is a returner but also contributes on offense as at least the WR3/4, then it wouldn't be as bad. 

[tshanno]

59 minutes ago, adam said:

I really hope he surprises everyone and makes Poles look like a genius. If they had him rated over all those other guys, then there was a reason for it.

The fear on any of the stats, especially ones that are not receptions, yards, TDs, etc, is how much of that was due to the fact that he was just more developed as an adult man playing against 19 yr old kids?

If he ends up just being a returner, then it was a bad pick. If he is a returner but also contributes on offense as at least the WR3/4, then it wouldn't be as bad. 

I think Poles may have known that he was going to draw criticism for the Jones pick. The reason I say that is because he went out of his way in one of his press conferences to say that other GM’s had told him that he had taken their guy. GM’s usually don’t usually make comments like that in press conferences.  So he must have been feeling defensive or at least a little insecure about the pic.

As far as competing with 19-year-old kids is concerned, I understand the point. But you could make that same point about every fifth year senior that enters the draft. And although it’s valid, I think it’s just one factor to bear in mind not something that you rule a prospect out over.  I don’t discount it. But it doesn’t worry me a whole lot, either.

[GakMan23]

Velus Jones earning praise at rookie minicamp

[AZ54]

55 minutes ago, GakMan23 said:

Velus Jones earning praise at rookie minicamp

link didn't work.  Is this what you were looking for? 

 

 

[GakMan23]

16 hours ago, AZ54 said:

link didn't work.  Is this what you were looking for? 

 

 

sorry about that, fixed. But yes it did have a link to that!

[Stinger226]

On 5/7/2022 at 4:58 PM, adam said:

Interesting article, just using age as a comparison of other WRs that had their breakout year at 23 or later. 

https://beargoggleson.com/2022/05/06/velus-jones-chicago-bears/

The top 2 WRs on the list are Cooper Kupp and Van Jefferson. That's basically it. That is out of 37 WRs in that same group. 

I understand their point, that an older player is more fully developed, so they have an easier time against 19 and 20 year olds that are still developing. 

 

The Bears passed on Abraham Lucas, OT, Christian Harris, LB, Travis Jones, DT, Bernard Raimann, OT, Jalen Tolbert, WR, Dylan Parham, OG, and David Bell, WR. 

I really hope he works out and proves everyone wrong, otherwise this may end up as Poles' Shaheen pick. 

I think  the  age  thing is being to scrutinized. Obviously you've more mature at 25 instead of 22 but it only matters in service time. 7 yrs instead of 10. He was under used as a WR until he went to Tennessee. The WRs at USC while Jones was there, Michael Pittman, Drake London, Amon Ra-St Brown, JuJu Smith Schuster. That's a tough group to try to get reps from. Just a note, Devin Hester was 24 when he entered the NFL. He has skills he showed being all conference STs player of the year in both the Pac 10  and SEC. He is a physical clone to Deebo Samuel and is compared to being able to run and catch passes. His route tree is limited but so was Deebo when he came out but produced right away.  His skills  translate into being used in screens, jet sweeps, out route, slants, reverses, and go routes. He is much faster than Deebo 4.31 to 4.48.  I think they envision him for what he is capable of  doing over what other coaches used him  for. In football terms, he's a boom or bust prospect. I think he was  more of a 4 th round value than in third  but never got a trade to slide down to the 4th so they took him there. They clearly targeted him over other WRs left on the board , since they valued speed. If he had been a 4th or 5th round pick, he won't be talked about as much. In the first place , the first 3  picks you needed starters over players that needed development. They did that. Pringle can play on the outside while they slide him into the slot, so you have your 3 starters. If he gets 50 catches for 640 yds with 250 yrs rushing and 8 TDs , we have a winner.

[adam]

1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:

I think  the  age  thing is being to scrutinized. Obviously you've more mature at 25 instead of 22 but it only matters in service time. 7 yrs instead of 10. He was under used as a WR until he went to Tennessee. The WRs at USC while Jones was there, Michael Pittman, Drake London, Amon Ra-St Brown, JuJu Smith Schuster. That's a tough group to try to get reps from. Just a note, Devin Hester was 24 when he entered the NFL. He has skills he showed being all conference STs player of the year in both the Pac 10  and SEC. He is a physical clone to Deebo Samuel and is compared to being able to run and catch passes. His route tree is limited but so was Deebo when he came out but produced right away.  His skills  translate into being used in screens, jet sweeps, out route, slants, reverses, and go routes. He is much faster than Deebo 4.31 to 4.48.  I think they envision him for what he is capable of  doing over what other coaches used him  for. In football terms, he's a boom or bust prospect. I think he was  more of a 4 th round value than in third  but never got a trade to slide down to the 4th so they took him there. They clearly targeted him over other WRs left on the board , since they valued speed. If he had been a 4th or 5th round pick, he won't be talked about as much. In the first place , the first 3  picks you needed starters over players that needed development. They did that. Pringle can play on the outside while they slide him into the slot, so you have your 3 starters. If he gets 50 catches for 640 yds with 250 yrs rushing and 8 TDs , we have a winner.

Also, age is just one trait. You could do the same thing for height, weight, speed, any combine metric, experience, etc. So to me it is somewhat subjective using an objective data point.

I personally would rather use the holistic approach and age is just one factor. In terms of Fields development, it may actually help him that his top 3 WRs are 25, 25, and 29 (in 2022), his RB1 is 25 and his TE1 is 23. So as much as they can learn together, he is not dealing with that many 20-22 yr olds who are still maturing as an adult. 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

On 5/9/2022 at 7:47 AM, Stinger226 said:

I think  the  age  thing is being to scrutinized. Obviously you've more mature at 25 instead of 22 but it only matters in service time. 7 yrs instead of 10. He was under used as a WR until he went to Tennessee. The WRs at USC while Jones was there, Michael Pittman, Drake London, Amon Ra-St Brown, JuJu Smith Schuster. That's a tough group to try to get reps from. Just a note, Devin Hester was 24 when he entered the NFL. He has skills he showed being all conference STs player of the year in both the Pac 10  and SEC. He is a physical clone to Deebo Samuel and is compared to being able to run and catch passes. His route tree is limited but so was Deebo when he came out but produced right away.  His skills  translate into being used in screens, jet sweeps, out route, slants, reverses, and go routes. He is much faster than Deebo 4.31 to 4.48.  I think they envision him for what he is capable of  doing over what other coaches used him  for. In football terms, he's a boom or bust prospect. I think he was  more of a 4 th round value than in third  but never got a trade to slide down to the 4th so they took him there. They clearly targeted him over other WRs left on the board , since they valued speed. If he had been a 4th or 5th round pick, he won't be talked about as much. In the first place , the first 3  picks you needed starters over players that needed development. They did that. Pringle can play on the outside while they slide him into the slot, so you have your 3 starters. If he gets 50 catches for 640 yds with 250 yrs rushing and 8 TDs , we have a winner.

I think we got a gem. He is top 10 in the NFL for speed. Velus knows he could have timed  4.2 40 if he came off the line straight.  He will have to be accounted for wherever he lines up on the field, especially having a QB who can fly.  No worries about him not being a traditional X wr or limited routes.  He will also put the time in to learn, he carries a white erase board with him to learn like flash cards. LIKE Devin Hester was landed round 3, the Bears have another special player that will win the city. 

[Stinger226]

Until we start playing games his value will look underwhelming, but Poles drafted him with a  role in mind. As you said , defenses will have to pay attention to him. I can't wait until he runs off some chunk plays that will shut up all of the negative narrators. What Poles added to the WR room is more speed and more height. Last yr we had only I WR over 6', AROB, we now have 8 currently on the roster.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

3 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

Until we start playing games his value will look underwhelming, but Poles drafted him with a  role in mind. As you said , defenses will have to pay attention to him. I can't wait until he runs off some chunk plays that will shut up all of the negative narrators. What Poles added to the WR room is more speed and more height. Last yr we had only I WR over 6', AROB, we now have 8 currently on the roster.

This guy is Jakeem Grant with size. I am not so sure he was taken too early either.  I dont think he makes it to round 4 if the Bears didn't take him.  

[adam]

I was wondering why they passed on Pickens in the 2nd:

Quote

Quote

Pickens missed the first 10 games of the Bulldogs’ season after tearing the anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee during spring practice.

I didn't know he had a recent injury. 

Also, he seems like a head case, who does this when they are drafted?

So we will see if Pickens with Trubisky outproduces Jones with Fields. Pickens would have to be significantly better than Jones, otherwise, the Bears made the right call.

[Mongo3451]

4 hours ago, adam said:

I was wondering why they passed on Pickens in the 2nd:

I didn't know he had a recent injury. 

Also, he seems like a head case, who does this when they are drafted?

So we will see if Pickens with Trubisky outproduces Jones with Fields. Pickens would have to be significantly better than Jones, otherwise, the Bears made the right call.

Pickens is a dbag.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

5 hours ago, adam said:

I was wondering why they passed on Pickens in the 2nd:

I didn't know he had a recent injury. 

Also, he seems like a head case, who does this when they are drafted?

So we will see if Pickens with Trubisky outproduces Jones with Fields. Pickens would have to be significantly better than Jones, otherwise, the Bears made the right call.

I don't think we have to worry. Jones is what the Bears and Fields were looking for.  He will line up at multiple positions.  Pickens will mainly line up outside. Pickens may be a good deep threat, but Jones will be a threat anytime he touches the ball. 

It will be exciting watching how it all turns out.  I would even say Herbert surpasses Montgomery and Monty becomes the goal line/short yardage back.

[adam]

15 hours ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

I don't think we have to worry. Jones is what the Bears and Fields were looking for.  He will line up at multiple positions.  Pickens will mainly line up outside. Pickens may be a good deep threat, but Jones will be a threat anytime he touches the ball. 

It will be exciting watching how it all turns out.  I would even say Herbert surpasses Montgomery and Monty becomes the goal line/short yardage back.

In regards to Monty, I could also see a mid season trade. Instead of rolling the dice on a comp pick (especially if they are planning to sign several), take a 5th or 6th rounder and be happy.