Supporting Cast False Narrative

[adam]

* CAUTION - LONG *

So the latest trend with Fields after the draft is that he has the worst supporting cast in the NFL. I get that the Bears didn't draft a WR in the 2nd but would drafting Pickens, Pierce, or Moore in the 2nd instead of Jones in the 3rd really change anything? I highly doubt it. Going into this season, the Bears already have 4x players who had over 50 targets from last season (Mooney, Kmet, Pringle, and Montgomery). Why does that matter? Well I am glad you asked.

I looked back at two recent 2nd-year QBs that made significant leaps in the 2nd seasons, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. I am not saying Fields is going to win MVP like Jackson did, but check out what both guys did in their 2nd years and who their supporting casts were:

Lamar Jackson was truly a dual-threat QB in his 2nd season, gaining over 4300 yds (Passing+Rushing) with 43 combined TDs. His Passing numbers were modest by today's standards outside of the crazy TD-INT ratio: 265-401, 66.1%, 3127 yds, 36 TD, 6 INT.  His rushing numbers were off the charts as he was one of the top rushers in the NFL and best on his team with 176-1206, and 7 TD. I don't recall anyone saying he had the worst supporting cast in the NFL that year, but here are his top 5 targets from 2019:

1. Andrews - 98
2. M. Brown - 71
3. Snead - 46
4. Boyle - 43
5. Hurst - 39

Outside of Andrews, there is not much there. Andrews over Kmet ok, but then Mooney over Brown, and Pringle over Snead. Would you rather have a TE2 or RB1 with the next highest targets, or does it matter? Still Boyle or Montgomery? Also, does #5 really matter? Nope. Also interesting, no RBs made the list. So they had to be great rushing right? Here are the top 2 RBs in rushing from 2019:

1. Ingram 202-1018, 10 TD
2. Edwards 133-711, 2 TD

The threat of Lamar running made their numbers (from a yards per carry standpoint, look good), but barely eclipsing 1000 yards nowadays is not that big of a deal. Monty+Herbert are as equal if not better all-around than Ingram and Edwards were in 2019.

So now to Josh Allen. He had a similar uptick from his rookie year, just not the crazy TDs and rushing yards that Jackson had. He had a passing line of 271-461, 58.8%, 3089 yds, 20 TD, 9 INT which was very modest across the board. Even his rushing numbers were similar outside of the higher TDs: 109-510, 9 TD. In a quick comparison, Fields had over 400 rushing yards in 30+ less carries last year in Nagy's offense. 

So did Josh Allen also have the worst supporting cast in the NFL in 2019? Here are his top 5 targets that year:

1. John Brown - 115
2. Beasley - 106
3. Knox - 50
4. Singletary - 41
5. McKenzie - 39

Allen's distribution was a little different than Jackson's. More to WRs and RBs, and less to TEs. Mooney or Brown? Mooney. Beasley or Pringle, I will say Beasley (in 2019). Knox or Kmet, I will take 2022 Kmet over 2019 Knox. Monty vs Singletary, Monty, and again does #5 really matter? Again no. 

Now who were Allen's top 2 RBs in 2019 in rushing?

1. Singletary 151-775, 2 TD
2. Gore 166-599, 2 TD

The ageless Frank Gore and a very young Singletary who ended up as a poor man's David Montgomery if you ask me.  Again, would you rather have Montgomery+Herbert or Singletary+Gore from 2019? Seems like another easy answer.

Here is what the Bears have on the roster and their targets from 2021:

Bears players with top 5 targets from 2021 season:

1. Mooney - 140
2. Kmet - 93
3. Pringle - 60 
4. Montgomery - 51
5. O'Shaughnessy - 34

Mooney had 25 more targets than the next highest player (with 3 QBs and in Nagy's offense). Kmet only had 5 fewer than Andrews in that same anemic offense. Pringle, who was basically a 5th or 6th option in KC saw more targets than any #3 player on the lists. Monty was the only #4 player to have over 50 targets and he missed several games. Even O'Shaughnessy gets into the action with his 34 targets at #5. So if Velus Jones comes in and gets 50 targets, will this thread explode?

TLDR? The bottom line is the 5th or 6th highest targeted player on the team doesn't make or break the roster or Fields career. There is only 1 ball and 1 target per play. If Jackson can have an MVP season with that skill position group and Allen can take a huge leap year with that position group, there is no reason why Fields, who came out of college more polished, shouldn't put up comparable numbers to both of those guys in the new system that is not run by a Clown shoe. 

After looking at what those other guys did, I expect Fields to have no less than 3500+ passing yards with 25+ TDs, <12 INTs, and 600+ rushing yards, 5+ TDs AND I would not be surprised if he surpasses those numbers. 

[Pixote]

Adam, Great writeup. Loved your analysis and agree with you 100%.

Thanks for taking the time to put that together for us.

[BearFan PHX]

Love the writeup. Lots of good facts, presented very clearly. Thanks!

Of course there have been other 2nd year QBs who didnt have 3,500 yards passing, who did perform better in year 3nd beyond too. I do have high hopes for Fields, but I'll wait to see it on the field first. I'd like to see growth, even if he doesn't get all the way there this coming year.

That said, your purpose here - to debunk the argument that Fields couldnt possibly succeed in year 2 with this talent around him - is very well made. Fields certainly could do that, and it all depends on his development, not some external ceiling he can't get past.

Again, well done on this post.

[AZ54]

I agree, great writeup.  I ignore NFL pundits because they are always late to the bandwagon after a team starts winning, or they promote people like Carson Wentz when his stats weren't all that great in his first season.  He just had a great team around him.  We can list all sorts of love affairs they've had with QBs:  Garoppolo, even Gardner Minshew had a brief few moments fame where he was "the answer" when it was clear to anyone who watched he had limitations.   The NFL defenses adapt quickly to what you like to do and then the media dumps those guys pretty quickly.  

Fields looked lost much of last year but it did start to come together for him later but injuries, or his lack of staying away from contact, kept him off the field.  It will take a few weeks for a rebuilt Oline and WR corps to come together with the new playbook but I remain optimistic Fields is our guy. I agree, we should be able to see that even with the talent limitations around him.  

[scs787]

Totally agree as I have going into the draft as well. I was the guy making the effort to point out that even a day 2 WR wasn't all that necessary,  but alas, they even addressed it in round 3. 

 

This offense can be really dynamic in a lot of different ways that we don't even know yet. Are they gonna run Fields more? Are they gonna get the full back involved in the passing game? Will they use Ebner in a Cohen type roll? 

 

There is a ton of speed on this team. This is a team that right now I'd love to coach. The big names aren't there, but I think it's gonna be a lot of fun to watch. 

[adam]

Thanks guys, I am sure there are other examples as well, these just seemed comparable to Fields based on his dual-threat ability. 

Outside of Hopkins, Watson didn't have much in terms of talent or an O-Line and did just fine his 2nd year. I feel like a lot of media guys crapped on Fields since the beginning and now are doubling down. It went from black QB, to not smart, to not a hard worker, to unable to read defenses, to throwing mechanics, to holding the ball to long, to lack of ball security. The list goes on and on. Now it's he doesn't have the players around him.

Another interesting note, I think the defense is going to be better than last year and close to Buffalo and Baltimore in 2019. I think both were top 10. I think Bears can have a top 15 defense. 

[Mongo3451]

Sentiments echoed.  NFL media loves the splash.  Bears simply dove into FA and draft without a ripple.  They had to.  They quickly forget the cap hell and bare cupboard left to Ryan Poles and his staff.  We didn't need one or two foundational pieces.  According to Bill Polian, we needed 8.  You can't get 8 with no money and 5 picks.  So, you get more picks for the Mack trade, while freeing up future money.  Blah blah blah, we now have 11 picks.  IMO, that was a coup, in the deepest draft in decades.  Seeing 25 year old rookies will tell you that.(thanks Rona)  Add our blended intell from good organizations.  Stinger said something akin to 30% of rosters are made up of UDFA's.  This was the year to throw darts at the board and hope they stick.  I'll take a splashless entry for the gold any day.

[adam]

47 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

Sentiments echoed.  NFL media loves the splash.  Bears simply dove into FA and draft without a ripple.  They had to.  They quickly forget the cap hell and bare cupboard left to Ryan Poles and his staff.  We didn't need one or two foundational pieces.  According to Bill Polian, we needed 8.  You can't get 8 with no money and 5 picks.  So, you get more picks for the Mack trade, while freeing up future money.  Blah blah blah, we now have 11 picks.  IMO, that was a coup, in the deepest draft in decades.  Seeing 25 year old rookies will tell you that.(thanks Rona)  Add our blended intell from good organizations.  Stinger said something akin to 30% of rosters are made up of UDFA's.  This was the year to throw darts at the board and hope they stick.  I'll take a splashless entry for the gold any day.

They also said the WR class next year is way deeper than this year. So it made sense not to jump at 1st or 2nd rounders when those guys would be going a round later in 2023.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

It would not surprise me if the Bears do not draft WR Round 1 again.  Looking at KC's history and even Green Bays, they look round 2 or later.  

[scs787]

31 minutes ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

It would not surprise me if the Bears do not draft WR Round 1 again.  Looking at KC's history and even Green Bays, they look round 2 or later.  

Certainly possible.  I'd venture to believe next year, assuming mediocrity from both the position and the team, LT is gonna be where they look to next year. 

 

I still hope/expect Brown or Fisher this year but I assume it's gonna be on a 1 year deal. I'd love to be wrong and Borum, Jenkins, or one of the rookies step up in a big big way but I don't expect it. 

 

The WR class is supposed to be loaded again next year so it's still a possibility and I certainly wouldn't be mad though. As a huge Marvin Harrison fan, his son should be in next year's class and is likely a first round pick out of Ohio State. 

[Stinger226]

Good article, you should write for one of these bears sites, their are a ton of them and you are much better than some of their articles.. You and AZ are both very articulate.

One thing different for us compared to the other two teams is we have different regimes between year one and year two. I think that in it self will change how well Fields progresses. We had the worst offense in the league last yr , no discipline and no accountabity  which affected play on the field. We have a coach that will play to his strengths, and not try to overload him with a complex offense like Nagy was trying to do. It will be more simplistic, and user friendly. He wont have five reads, he will have  plays that will give him a couple choices and to run or not. My expectations are raised because I trust the coaches more to fit the talent. Even with a raw OL they will value the run which sets up the play action which helps the oline. If you use a bunch of screens that slows down the pass rush. I think our WR corp will be much better than what Jackson and Allen had in their second yrs. The national media only sees what they want to see and dont dig deep into the roster development and that's why they have such  a doomsday outlook on Fields. 

I expect Mooney to get 150 targets this year, Pringle 100, Velus Jones 70, and Kmet 100. A better offense will increase out offensive output. Fields over 4000 yds, passing, 500 rushing with 32 TDs-10 interceptions.  Where ever Flus went there was an untick in TOs and expect that to happen here. When Flus went to Indy they went from 23 to 29, last year we had 20.

Last year as a team we had 3625 yards passing, Fields 1870. So with a better functioning offense see no reason he cant get to 4000. 

[adam]

2 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

Good article, you should write for one of these bears sites, their are a ton of them and you are much better than some of their articles.. You and AZ are both very articulate.

One thing different for us compared to the other two teams is we have different regimes between year one and year two. I think that in it self will change how well Fields progresses. We had the worst offense in the league last yr , no discipline and no accountabity  which affected play on the field. We have a coach that will play to his strengths, and not try to overload him with a complex offense like Nagy was trying to do. It will be more simplistic, and user friendly. He wont have five reads, he will have  plays that will give him a couple choices and to run or not. My expectations are raised because I trust the coaches more to fit the talent. Even with a raw OL they will value the run which sets up the play action which helps the oline. If you use a bunch of screens that slows down the pass rush. I think our WR corp will be much better than what Jackson and Allen had in their second yrs. The national media only sees what they want to see and dont dig deep into the roster development and that's why they have such  a doomsday outlook on Fields. 

I expect Mooney to get 150 targets this year, Pringle 100, Velus Jones 70, and Kmet 100. A better offense will increase out offensive output. Fields over 4000 yds, passing, 500 rushing with 32 TDs-10 interceptions.  Where ever Flus went there was an untick in TOs and expect that to happen here. When Flus went to Indy they went from 23 to 29, last year we had 20.

Last year as a team we had 3625 yards passing, Fields 1870. So with a better functioning offense see no reason he cant get to 4000. 

Thanks. People must not realize just how bad Nagy was and how little he did for Fields. At least they supported Trubisky for the first year or two. Fields never had a chance. 

Just by removing his first two games (CIN and CLE) where he literally had zero time as QB1, his sacks drop by 11 (basically 33%), his comp% goes up to 61.6% and his Y/A becomes the highest for a rookie for 2021 at 7.35. If he was given QB1 reps in the offseason, had a game plan built around him, he would've easily had over 3K passing yards, 20 TDs last year. So looking back at what Jackson and Allen did in their Year 2s, I think Fields will easily exceed some of their numbers, and like you would not be surprised if he was the Bears first franchise 4K passer (which no requires an average of only 235 yards a game). With the Bears easier schedule, next year is the year to play the underdog.

[Mongo3451]

Don't forget the running backs on your targets Stinger...??

[Stinger226]

3 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

Don't forget the running backs on your targets Stinger...??

Actually I did forget to include them.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

9 hours ago, scs787 said:

Certainly possible.  I'd venture to believe next year, assuming mediocrity from both the position and the team, LT is gonna be where they look to next year. 

 

I still hope/expect Brown or Fisher this year but I assume it's gonna be on a 1 year deal. I'd love to be wrong and Borum, Jenkins, or one of the rookies step up in a big big way but I don't expect it. 

 

The WR class is supposed to be loaded again next year so it's still a possibility and I certainly wouldn't be mad though. As a huge Marvin Harrison fan, his son should be in next year's class and is likely a first round pick out of Ohio State. 

Big needs as of now would be 3T, WR1, RG/LT, and possibly FS. in no particular order.  The Bears most likely will be selecting top 10 unless something unexpectedly happens.  I would be good taking a WR1 if they can be like Chase 2. 

[Stinger226]

There is a lot of ifs at this stage but I can see where we win more than we lose. I think the defense will be better. The offense can't be as bad as last year and if Fields takes a jump,  better play calling, we could have a winning season. As ASH stated we still have a few weaknesses 3T and RG. I think the RG is already here, we just haven't identified him yet. I think the answer at 3T is still coming by way of Larry Ogunjobi. He hasn't been doing any visits and Poles haven't wrote him off yet. We definitely don't have a number#1 WR but we may by the end of the year. Devante Adams didn't turn into D Adams until his 5th season. Mooney still has hope.

[AZ54]

1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:

There is a lot of ifs at this stage but I can see where we win more than we lose. I think the defense will be better. The offense can't be as bad as last year and if Fields takes a jump,  better play calling, we could have a winning season. As ASH stated we still have a few weaknesses 3T and RG. I think the RG is already here, we just haven't identified him yet. I think the answer at 3T is still coming by way of Larry Ogunjobi. He hasn't been doing any visits and Poles haven't wrote him off yet. We definitely don't have a number#1 WR but we may by the end of the year. Devante Adams didn't turn into D Adams until his 5th season. Mooney still has hope.

One of the biggest improvements Adams made was finally getting on the same page with Rodgers when plays broke down.  Rodgers is excellent at buying time but in the early years he just couldn't figure out which way Adams was going to break.  Of course earlier in Adams career Rodgers had some other options too.  

Point here isn't about Adams it's about Mooney and Fields and what can happen when plays break down.  These are the big plays off-schedule we've rarely seen but we got a little taste here and there last year.  I'd say we have some good pieces in place for this, except perhaps a good Oline.  Then again Oline breakdowns often lead to broken plays.  

Between Montgomery, Mooney, Velus, Pringle, Ebner, we have several players who have the quickness and/or speed to get separation during a scramble play.  Mooney working out with Fields should only help that but I'd like to see some others on board this summer.  Getting some of this down with a new offense will take time but hopefully we see some nice gains on broken plays in the 2nd half of the season.    

[adam]

8 hours ago, AZ54 said:

One of the biggest improvements Adams made was finally getting on the same page with Rodgers when plays broke down.  Rodgers is excellent at buying time but in the early years he just couldn't figure out which way Adams was going to break.  Of course earlier in Adams career Rodgers had some other options too.  

Point here isn't about Adams it's about Mooney and Fields and what can happen when plays break down.  These are the big plays off-schedule we've rarely seen but we got a little taste here and there last year.  I'd say we have some good pieces in place for this, except perhaps a good Oline.  Then again Oline breakdowns often lead to broken plays.  

Between Montgomery, Mooney, Velus, Pringle, Ebner, we have several players who have the quickness and/or speed to get separation during a scramble play.  Mooney working out with Fields should only help that but I'd like to see some others on board this summer.  Getting some of this down with a new offense will take time but hopefully we see some nice gains on broken plays in the 2nd half of the season.    

Adams didn't break 500 yds receiving until his 3rd year and didn't hit 1K until his 5th! The media has so many false narratives. The way they talk about him now, he has been a WR1 for a decade. He is also going to be 30 this year. Mooney hit 1K in year 2 with 3 different QBs. So he is trending higher much earlier in his career than Adams. Not that he will peak at the same point, but he is on a good glide path.

The broken plays account for a ton of yards and receptions and a QB and team can't really take advantage of them until the unit is locked in. Hopefully, we will see more of that this year. ARob accounted for several INTs when he would just give up on a play that Fields extended.

[Mongo3451]

Another point to make about the talking heads wanting to see more help for Justin is what we have to evaluate.  They are introducing a new scheme and asking the OL to change their physique.  We spent draft picks on OT's last year.  They are going to want to see what these guys have to offer after they condition properly.  Bringing in a vet at this time takes reps away from Jenkins and Borom, thus hindering the cohesion of the OL.  The WR room has been talked about in a few threads.  IMO, the group is suspect with upside.  Also, IMO, we have enough to work with.  I suspect they will extend core players at some point in the season further helping our cap situation.  If push comes to shove, Poles probably has a few agents on speed dial in case the LT project comes to a dead end.  Again, I'm nervous about this most of all.  Some things we have to take on faith until we learn not to.

[adam]

This guy says Jets put Wilson in the best position to succeed. Here is my reply:

I would take our top 5 WRs over Berrios, Moore, Davis, Wilson, and Mims. Kmet is better than Ozumah, and our RB corps is better than theirs easy. Outside of OLine, it is not like Wilson has a ton of high end weapons. Wilson may be the best, but he is just a rookie. 

[AZ54]

10 hours ago, adam said:

This guy says Jets put Wilson in the best position to succeed. Here is my reply:

I would take our top 5 WRs over Berrios, Moore, Davis, Wilson, and Mims. Kmet is better than Ozumah, and our RB corps is better than theirs easy. Outside of OLine, it is not like Wilson has a ton of high end weapons. Wilson may be the best, but he is just a rookie. 

I think we're ok at WR and TE.  I think we're good at RB.  All this depends on the Oline coming together, including the WR performance.  After the chaos of the Nagy years where players often didn't know who to block I can't imagine it being worse.  To be honest while I like the Oline draft picks and our new C is a good pickup to help the transition, this wait and see approach is an uncomfortable feeling.  As always I'm optimistic but part of that optimism is simply based on Poles' background at KC, along with Cunningham plus the new Oline coach's proven history of success.  We still might add to the LT position but at this point they are their 3rd week of OTAs and they are not panicking.  We still have $15mil in cap space per Overthecap.com.   They could (and IMO would) do something if they felt they had to but so far the players are doing enough learning the new scheme for them to hold off and see what happens.  Getting in the right position for a zone block is one thing, holding that block is another.  All eyes will be on the Oline the first day the pads come on.  

[Pixote]

I'm anxious to see what happens after June 1st cuts. With 15M in his bank, is Poles waiting to see all options available to him before he makes any further moves? It would make sense. There will be a few more surprise moves before the season begins.

[Mongo3451]

3 hours ago, Pixote said:

I'm anxious to see what happens after June 1st cuts. With 15M in his bank, is Poles waiting to see all options available to him before he makes any further moves? It would make sense. There will be a few more surprise moves before the season begins.

Same here.  I'm also still thinking that at some point that Quinn gets traded to a contender before the deadline. (Ala Von Miller)  

[Pixote]

3 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

Same here.  I'm also still thinking that at some point that Quinn gets traded to a contender before the deadline. (Ala Von Miller)  

Also agree. I'm reading that some predict we would get draft picks in exchange for Quinn that would equal or possibly eclipse that which was received for Von Miller. The added bonus, if such a trade took place, is that we will have even more cap space for the next FA period.