Under Appreciated

[AZ54]

David Montgomery makes the value list.

https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-s-most-underappreciated-players-dk-metcalf-david-montgomery-among-nfc-picks

[Stinger226]

I was getting bored, I actually watched a highlight film for David Montgomery today, A good football player.

[adam]

Monty is probably a top 15 RB in the league, but what is that going to cost? That is the dilemma. The RB salary hierarchy goes like this:

Top 8: McCaffrey, Elliott, Kamara, Cook, Henry, Chubb, Mixon, Jones - all making between $16M - $12M per year, then drop all the way to $7.8 for Barkley at #7, $7M for Fournette and Conner. Ekeler is making $6.1M. 

So if you think Monty is top 10, is he top 8? Probably not. I am sure his camp is going to want something around $12M (because newer contracts will surpass his), and the Bears probably won't want to spend more than $8M (unless they believe he is an irreplaceable part in the locker room too).

My biggest concern has always been his yards per carry. Career average of 3.9. That has to improve, otherwise, I don't know if he is worth over $10M per year. Last year, in the same offense, Monty had a 3.8 YPC, Herbert 4.3, and even Williams 4.1. That should be somewhat of a red flag.

If he could do one thing for me, which would give him at least an extra half yard per carry is not to do the head juke on every play, even when it's not needed. What he needs to do is actually make the cut sometimes. 

[Stinger226]

Realistically a 10-15 rated RB. He would be worth signing in a 7-8 mil range. Since our offense will resemble SF more than GB, I think, they have proven plug in and play multiRBs works.  I think he is a team leader and to let him walk would be a negative. I can't think of any big contracts for RBs that has not been a failure. The price is the key. 

Am I messed up to think we can be a good team? I'm thinking 9 maybe 10 wins. I guess that is more average than good but with all the negative projections, A winning team at least. I see what Poles thinks he got Pringle-Jones-Patrick-Morrow- Brisker-Gordon as all good players instead of just backup types. I think the D will be top 10 and Fields taking a step forward which will make this at least a average offense. With good special teams, A winning team.

Change my mind

[AZ54]

6 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

Realistically a 10-15 rated RB. He would be worth signing in a 7-8 mil range. Since our offense will resemble SF more than GB, I think, they have proven plug in and play multiRBs works.  I think he is a team leader and to let him walk would be a negative. I can't think of any big contracts for RBs that has not been a failure. The price is the key. 

Am I messed up to think we can be a good team? I'm thinking 9 maybe 10 wins. I guess that is more average than good but with all the negative projections, A winning team at least. I see what Poles thinks he got Pringle-Jones-Patrick-Morrow- Brisker-Gordon as all good players instead of just backup types. I think the D will be top 10 and Fields taking a step forward which will make this at least a average offense. With good special teams, A winning team.

Change my mind

They'd have to come out of the gate playing well.  I'd be surprised if that happens with the new scheme and 2 rookies starting in the secondary, plus I have concerns about DTs.   The same things go for the new offense with a 2nd yr QB having to learn all that with a nearly new WR corps, 2 new TEs, and some new Oline pieces.  Fields getting used to how all these guys run the new routes is going to take longer than just training camp.  

[Bill]

I can't think of one running back who runs inside would not take one cut and go if called and it was open.  Maybe with this new staff, linemen and

scheme he will have that choice.  Don't have the stats but I believe he had one of the lowest yard before contact?

[killakrzydav]

A replaceable part imo. No chance would I give him 10-12 million a year. 3.9 ypc?? Yikes!

[BearFan PHX]

4 hours ago, killakrzydav said:

A replaceable part imo. No chance would I give him 10-12 million a year. 3.9 ypc?? Yikes!

yeah, but we all saw it, there was NO blocking. It's not like Monty goes down easy - he finishes his runs. This isnt Monty's fault at all.

[AZ54]

8 hours ago, killakrzydav said:

A replaceable part imo. No chance would I give him 10-12 million a year. 3.9 ypc?? Yikes!

It is interesting that Montgomery was averaging 4.2ypc until the last 4 games, and that includes his return after the knee injury.  The last 4 games were MIN, SEA, NYG, and MIN where he averaged just 3.0ypc.  He had bad games in other 4 game stretches but this is only time frame where he had no games over 4ypc.  I don't recall what was going on during the last 4 games of the season but something changed other than everyone knowing the coach was getting fired.  During those games Herbert ran 8 times for 41 yds, or 2.13 ypc.   8 carries is not necessarily statistically significant but it is interesting that both had a significant drop off in the last 4 games.  

FWIW in 15 games Aaron Jones rushed for just 800yds, just 391yds receiving behind the MVP QB and he's making $12mil/yr.  

Monty:   12 games rushed for 849yds, 301yds receiving

While he might not be the ideal lead RB he's a guy you want in your team's rotation and he'll find work easily if he's a FA.  At what price it's hard to say.  James Conner had a similar year as did Austin Ekeler and although each have different styles I put Montgomery in that group.  They make ~$7mil/yr.  If he repeat's with a similar year Montgomery will easily get that and likely at least $8mil/yr.  If he does better in the new offense his value goes up (call it the Nagy bounce) but I can't see him worth $12mil/yr like Jones is getting.   

[adam]

1 hour ago, AZ54 said:

It is interesting that Montgomery was averaging 4.2ypc until the last 4 games, and that includes his return after the knee injury.  The last 4 games were MIN, SEA, NYG, and MIN where he averaged just 3.0ypc.  He had bad games in other 4 game stretches but this is only time frame where he had no games over 4ypc.  I don't recall what was going on during the last 4 games of the season but something changed other than everyone knowing the coach was getting fired.  During those games Herbert ran 8 times for 41 yds, or 2.13 ypc.   8 carries is not necessarily statistically significant but it is interesting that both had a significant drop off in the last 4 games.  

FWIW in 15 games Aaron Jones rushed for just 800yds, just 391yds receiving behind the MVP QB and he's making $12mil/yr.  

Monty:   12 games rushed for 849yds, 301yds receiving

While he might not be the ideal lead RB he's a guy you want in your team's rotation and he'll find work easily if he's a FA.  At what price it's hard to say.  James Conner had a similar year as did Austin Ekeler and although each have different styles I put Montgomery in that group.  They make ~$7mil/yr.  If he repeat's with a similar year Montgomery will easily get that and likely at least $8mil/yr.  If he does better in the new offense his value goes up (call it the Nagy bounce) but I can't see him worth $12mil/yr like Jones is getting.   

I always thought the Aaron Jones deal was terrible, especially with Dillon on the roster. Ekeler on the other hand is underpaid. He should be making $10K. 

For me it is going to come down to how the team views him as a leader. If he is "the guy" then I can see them paying him to help change the culture. They could easily do an extension that has no guaranteed money beyond Fields' rookie deal. 

 

[lemonej]

On 5/28/2022 at 7:29 AM, adam said:

Monty is probably a top 15 RB in the league, but what is that going to cost? That is the dilemma. The RB salary hierarchy goes like this:

Top 8: McCaffrey, Elliott, Kamara, Cook, Henry, Chubb, Mixon, Jones - all making between $16M - $12M per year, then drop all the way to $7.8 for Barkley at #7, $7M for Fournette and Conner. Ekeler is making $6.1M. 

So if you think Monty is top 10, is he top 8? Probably not. I am sure his camp is going to want something around $12M (because newer contracts will surpass his), and the Bears probably won't want to spend more than $8M (unless they believe he is an irreplaceable part in the locker room too).

My biggest concern has always been his yards per carry. Career average of 3.9. That has to improve, otherwise, I don't know if he is worth over $10M per year. Last year, in the same offense, Monty had a 3.8 YPC, Herbert 4.3, and even Williams 4.1. That should be somewhat of a red flag.

If he could do one thing for me, which would give him at least an extra half yard per carry is not to do the head juke on every play, even when it's not needed. What he needs to do is actually make the cut sometimes. 

You have a top RB list without Jonathan Taylor?

[adam]

18 hours ago, lemonej said:

You have a top RB list without Jonathan Taylor?

"RB salary hierarchy"

[Stinger226]

I think something we understate when talking about the Bears is the players Poles brought in are all high motor. Relentless and hustle all the time. Goldman, Jackson took plays off last year.  It will change how we play.

[AZ54]

5 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

I think something we understate when talking about the Bears is the players Poles brought in are all high motor. Relentless and hustle all the time. Goldman, Jackson took plays off last year.  It will change how we play.

You sure that wasn't a whole season off?