My updated predictions

[adam]

Ok, we are about to start the real offseason and based on the latest moves, here are my updated game predictions:

1: vs 49ers (WIN, the Bears almost beat them with Nagy's offense, Fields will beat Lance)
2: at GB SNF (LOSS, this will be a close game but GB is still better)
3: Texans (WIN, a terrible roster, this will be an easy win)
4: at NYG (WIN, Daniel Jones is still the QB, a 3-1 start is possible)
5: at Vikings (LOSS, I have Bears splitting, could be a win here and loss later)
6: Commanders TNF  (WIN, Chase Young tore his ACL and was their best player, I doubt he plays or if he does, won't be his old self)
7: at Patriots MNF (LOSS, this one could go either way, but I give the edge to the home team)
8: at Cowboys (LOSS, Prescott is a great regular season QB, 4-4 after Week 8)
9: Dolphins (LOSS, the new Dolphins are much better this year)
10: Lions (WIN, they are getting better, but they still have Goff at QB)
11: at Falcons (WIN, this team is in full rebuild mode)
12: at Jets (WIN, getting better, but still not very good, 7-5 at Week 12, still in the Wild Card picture)
13: Packers (LOSS, this one could be a win, I think the Bears play everyone close)
14: Bye week (7-6 at the bye, still have playoffs in reach)
15: Eagles (LOSS, another one that could go either way, Eagles seem to be better, but not by much)
16: Bills (Xmas Eve) (LOSS, probably the best team on the schedule, I can't see the Bears beating them, this 3 game losing streak probably knocks team out of playoffs)
17: at Lions (New Years Day)  (WIN, same Lions with Goff, already eliminated, so it won't matter either way)
18: Vikings (WIN, eliminated a few weeks earlier, this game won't matter, will probably see a lot of subs starting)

I am counting 9 wins, so 9-8 or 8-9 with loss to SF? It feels like that is so doable based on the schedule. Lose to GB twice, beat DET twice, split with MIN in the division.

Thoughts?

[Alaskan Grizzly]

45 minutes ago, adam said:

Thoughts?

I'm convinced the team is looking at least a nine win season.  If everything remains as it is, I can see some of the games easily swinging to the Bears favor especially the 'push' games.  The Eagles one being an example  That late in the season, in Chicago could go easily in Chicago's favor.  I suspect by then the defense will be running on all cylinders and will be giving Hurts and company lots of headaches.  

Not sure why the Dolphins game is a sure loss.  Sure they added Tyreek Hill and have Waddle but Tua hasn't really proven he's ready to make the next step...yet.  I see that one as a win for the Bears too.    

[Daventry]

I think we are lucky to win six games.  New systems, new coaches, questionable QB.  Not a lot of big time talent on the team.  Can hope we come out of the season feeling good about some of our players and look forward to a full draft and lots of cap space available 

[AZ54]

I don't see the 49ers game as a win.  They are just too much of a good veteran team across the board, even with their 2nd year QB and his limitations.  Not only that they run the same offense so they know how to defend it.  The only advantage we have is they have no clue how we will deploy players on offense so there are no tendencies to scout.  On the other side with their offense against our defense they have plenty of film on what Eberflus did in Indy so they'll be prepared.  That didn't help them last year so maybe there is hope:  

https://www.si.com/nfl/colts/gameday/colts-49ers-week-7-crunching-numbers

GB has the better defense and the QB plus we're on the road.  We have Getsy who can give insight into tendencies but again with a revamped WR corps who knows.  I'd guess they'll rely on their running game and screen passes early in the season so maybe we'll be ready.  This is where you need a vet like Quinn to have a big game.   I can't see our new offense having a good game on the road. 

By week 9 the talk in Miami might be benching Tua for the steady but unspectacular Bridgewater.    

 

[adam]

32 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

I don't see the 49ers game as a win.  They are just too much of a good veteran team across the board, even with their 2nd year QB and his limitations.  Not only that they run the same offense so they know how to defend it.  The only advantage we have is they have no clue how we will deploy players on offense so there are no tendencies to scout.  On the other side with their offense against our defense they have plenty of film on what Eberflus did in Indy so they'll be prepared.  That didn't help them last year so maybe there is hope:  

https://www.si.com/nfl/colts/gameday/colts-49ers-week-7-crunching-numbers

GB has the better defense and the QB plus we're on the road.  We have Getsy who can give insight into tendencies but again with a revamped WR corps who knows.  I'd guess they'll rely on their running game and screen passes early in the season so maybe we'll be ready.  This is where you need a vet like Quinn to have a big game.   I can't see our new offense having a good game on the road. 

By week 9 the talk in Miami might be benching Tua for the steady but unspectacular Bridgewater.    

 

For SF, they are basically the same team the Bears were leading into the 4th quarter and if not for defensive failures and a missed PAT by Santos, they win that game. 

Miami added a lot more than just Hill, they have a better roster, but it is a winnable game. 

 

[Stinger226]

I agree with your projection of going 3-1 at the beginning of the season. I have said all along, we should win 9 games. Whether we win the SF game will depend on what happens with Deebo . If he gets his contract taken care of SF should be hard to win that game but if his contract looms, with Lance being new, we have a good shot. SF and us will push a running game early and progress with our QBs, so that should keep it a low scoring game. SF has 3 new starters on the OL, so they are going thru what we are. It will come down to TOs and with Flus taking over that should put us in a lot of games. I think his defense will do well and create more TOs. Being at home doesnt hurt either.

[adam]

Ok, what if I said, which games are guaranteed losses? BUF? GB? 

Of the losses I listed, the Bears can beat MIN, MIA, DAL, PHI, and NE. 

I feel like the Bears can be in every game except BUF to be honest. 

Using DVOA, the Bears have 6 games against teams with a top 10 DVOA (DAL, BUF, NE, SF, GBx2). 3 games against teams with a DVOA 11-20 (PHI, MINx2), and 8 games against teams with a DVOA from 21-32 (WAS, MIA, NYJ, HOU, DETx2, ATL, NYG).

Just using DVOA as a metric, the Bears should win the 8 and maybe 1 or 2 of the 3 middle games, and none of the top games. 

[Mongo3451]

My official prediction is 6.

[killakrzydav]

Half game above Vegas

[Bill]

3 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

My official prediction is 6.

What he said.  And I also don't see this team becoming a a contender going forward in any thing.  They have a ton of players on prove it deals.   And a lot of rookies who are suppose to be difference makers next year.  If thats the  percent of the players they have on this team now I don't think there is anyway they do much more in 23.   Maybe 2024

[BearFan PHX]

I think it's good to have optimism, and i do see positive changes already in the culture, but i think if this team does only put up 5 wins it's important that we realize this is year zero due to Pace and Nagy, and next year after a full draft and with cap space will be year one.

[Stinger226]

11 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

I think it's good to have optimism, and i do see positive changes already in the culture, but i think if this team does only put up 5 wins it's important that we realize this is year zero due to Pace and Nagy, and next year after a full draft and with cap space will be year one.

 

11 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

I think it's good to have optimism, and i do see positive changes already in the culture, but i think if this team does only put up 5 wins it's important that we realize this is year zero due to Pace and Nagy, and next year after a full draft and with cap space will be year one.

It is easy to predict failure being a Bears fan, I try to take the positive outlook on all transactions that we made. Of course , all will not be wins but my main source of optimism is that Fields will be a great QB and its starts showing on the field this year. I think our defense will be better than last years, everywhere Flus took over, the defense produced its first year. We have a potential scary pass rush which will make the DBs better and two of the fastest LBers in the league. With the up tick in TOs, they will put us in position to stay in games more than last year. With a great kicker, it will win some games that look bleak. We will focus on the run game, will keep scores down with us dominating game time. Fields will shine in moments that was laughable last year. We are not counting on all our draft picks to come thru. Bisker and Gordon will be better than their counterparts last year. Tavon Young will be a huge upgrade over last year if he can stay healthy. V Jones doesnt have to be a star, but just make a contribution. We have a good RB room, and one star WR. One of our other options will come thru and the rest can slot in the WR spots. Kmet will take another step forward to be a top 12 TE this year. His backups will be more reliable. IMO what I just stated does not make us a 6 win team. 

[BearFan PHX]

Im not really predicting failure so much as saying that if this year is bad, next year will be much better, and not to blame the current staff for what is really holdover issues from the last one. Call it optimism

[Mongo3451]

56 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

Im not really predicting failure so much as saying that if this year is bad, next year will be much better, and not to blame the current staff for what is really holdover issues from the last one. Call it optimism

Exactly my sentiment.  If we win six games and see a marked improvement, I will hard to contain in the off-season talking about what could be.  Just not yet.

[lemonej]

Truthfully I'm hoping for a surprise season, so they can flip the "Bird" to all the predictors who, are constantly predicting gloom and doom.

[Stinger226]

4 hours ago, lemonej said:

Truthfully I'm hoping for a surprise season, so they can flip the "Bird" to all the predictors who, are constantly predicting gloom and doom.

Did anyone predict the 2018 season? Im an optimist and that surprised me. 

[BearFan PHX]

I think we will see flashes from some position groups, and be stymied by dropped passes and a lack of interior pass rush. That will put us in a great position going in to the offseason with a bunch of proven pieces, and some holes to fill with draft picks and cap room to fill them.

Please dont misunderstand my prediction with my hope. I will be rooting for the Bears to win every game. I would love to see it.

[AZ54]

We don't have any depth on this roster.  Who do we have behind Kmet, Mooney, or any starting Olineman?  

[Stinger226]

What drives me is the fact that the national media say stupid crap  like , ( lucky to win 1 game)( top 5 drafting position) . ( no OL, no WRs but Mooney). Honestly I think we will be be closer to good than terrible. I know there are lots of ?s but I think Poles has added some talent with a purpose. More importantly, I think we have some good coaches. Most importantly, Fields is going to be good.

[lemonej]

14 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

Did anyone predict the 2018 season? Im an optimist and that surprised me. 

The 2021 Bengals flew under the radar and were predicted to be last so, I like our chances.

[AZ54]

16 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

What drives me is the fact that the national media say stupid crap  like , ( lucky to win 1 game)( top 5 drafting position) . ( no OL, no WRs but Mooney). Honestly I think we will be be closer to good than terrible. I know there are lots of ?s but I think Poles has added some talent with a purpose. More importantly, I think we have some good coaches. Most importantly, Fields is going to be good.

I gave up trusting the national media and their football analysts a very long time ago.  There are a few exceptions of course but overall I tend to learn more right here about the Bears and even the NFL.    The one thing I sense right now from fan reports is that, comparatively speaking, Justin Fields in this training camp is way ahead of what Trubisky was doing at his last training camp.  Typically at this point of camp I'm suffering through 2 (or more) weeks of "it's early and the defense is expected to be ahead of the offense".   This year we get:

[adam]

2 hours ago, AZ54 said:

I gave up trusting the national media and their football analysts a very long time ago.  There are a few exceptions of course but overall I tend to learn more right here about the Bears and even the NFL.    The one thing I sense right now from fan reports is that, comparatively speaking, Justin Fields in this training camp is way ahead of what Trubisky was doing at his last training camp.  Typically at this point of camp I'm suffering through 2 (or more) weeks of "it's early and the defense is expected to be ahead of the offense".   This year we get:

Trubisky was still being babied at this point. Nagy's first year, Mitch was still on 101.

Fields is also throwing to all new WRs/TEs outside of Mooney and Kmet. So they will all get better.

 

I am glad to see the defense getting some early turnovers, but then Fields and the offense recovering and ending on a high note. 

[BearFan PHX]

16 minutes ago, adam said:

I am glad to see the defense getting some early turnovers, but then Fields and the offense recovering and ending on a high note.

absolutely. even those of us predicting 5 or 6 wins arent saying that everything is going to suck. Instead, I think that we will see a lot of growth at certain positions, especially for Fields!

I also think we will be weak up the middle on the defensive line, and short handed at WR. I dont think our team will look like inept bottom 5 teams. I think we will have strengths and holes. And that is definitely something we can build on!

[Alaskan Grizzly]

28 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

and short handed at WR

What would you think about this trade proposal (lol)? Below.  I’ve seen some ‘click bait’ stories to suggest Mims could be on the Bears radar.  On the one hand he’s a big receiver (always a fan) and has speed.  On the other I’m a bit hesitant on the Bears picking up another reclamation project right now.  (Keep in mind this is an old tweet and simple speculation from another fan).  

 

[AZ54]

1 hour ago, adam said:

Trubisky was still being babied at this point. Nagy's first year, Mitch was still on 101.

Fields is also throwing to all new WRs/TEs outside of Mooney and Kmet. So they will all get better.

 

I am glad to see the defense getting some early turnovers, but then Fields and the offense recovering and ending on a high note. 

I'm talking about his 3rd year and even then Mitch was still being babied.  I can't remember anyone coming out of camp saying anything positive about him, in fact it was all red flags which proved correct as soon as the season started.