Week 1 Official Game Thread - SF @ CHI, 09/11, 12PM CDT, SF -7 O/U 41.5

[adam]

LET'S GO!

The Bears had the lead against the 49ers last year before the defense shit the bed. The Bears offense was completely broken last year and Fields still had a great game with some insane runs. The Bears lost 33-22 (Santos missed a PAT). With the new scheme and players, it is hard not to be optimistic because Nagy was that bad. I feel like the Bears offense will score more than 22, and the defense won't allow over 30 again.

For my prediction, I am going with Bears 27 - 20. 

Fields, 65% comp, 285 yds passing, 60 rushing, 2 TDs passes, 0 INT, 0 fumbles, 2 sacks. 
Kmet and Blasingame with TD receptions
Monty with rushing TD

Bears win turnover battle 1-0, Brisker with INT.

  

 

[adam]

49ers draft picks: 2nd (61) Drake Jackson, Edge, 3rd (93) Tyrion Davis-Price, RB, 3rd (105) Danny Gray, WR

Jackson is a rotational Edge guy, Davis-Price is 3rd on the depth chart, and Gray is WR6

Spencer Burford, is a rookie 4th rounder starting at RG.

On defense, their OLBs are Greenlaw and Al-Shaair? Emmanuel Moseley is a starting CB, Strong Safety is Talanoa Hufanga? So right there it seems like they are going to be weaker against the pass with a suspect OLB group and secondary. Their 4 starting secondary had a total of 5 INTs last year.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

Very excited - even more so because my kids little league kicks back up this Sunday and I have Sunday Ticket stream, which is hard to do when the games conflict. So I know Sunday is nationally televised in my area so can do the nice record, turn off my phone - enjoy all the kids activities and than we can all sit down and relax and watch the game later in the day on our own time (and hopefully will find the game plenty entertaining and enjoyable :)).  

[adam]

22 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

Very excited - even more so because my kids little league kicks back up this Sunday and I have Sunday Ticket stream, which is hard to do when the games conflict. So I know Sunday is nationally televised in my area so can do the nice record, turn off my phone - enjoy all the kids activities and than we can all sit down and relax and watch the game later in the day on our own time (and hopefully will find the game plenty entertaining and enjoyable :)).  

Nice, are you going to look at game updates live, or wait to watch the game later without knowing the outcome?

[DABEARSDABOMB]

52 minutes ago, adam said:

Nice, are you going to look at game updates live, or wait to watch the game later without knowing the outcome?

Never - I will turn my phone off so I get zero updates. So as far as I'm concerned, I'm watching live cause I have no idea what is happening (its really the only way I can watch and get the same experience as if I were watching live).  

[adam]

21 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

Never - I will turn my phone off so I get zero updates. So as far as I'm concerned, I'm watching live cause I have no idea what is happening (its really the only way I can watch and get the same experience as if I were watching live).  

So no live radio in car, no social media, technology black out. That's impressive.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

4 minutes ago, adam said:

So no live radio in car, no social media, technology black out. That's impressive.

It is quite peaceful haha. 

[Stinger226]

When I try to do that, it always blows up. If I have everything off , then someone near me bluffs it out.

[AZ54]

New sod.  This should provide better footing for this weekend.

https://www.si.com/nfl/bears/gameday/bears-hoping-for-better-footing  

[DABEARSDABOMB]

3 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

When I try to do that, it always blows up. If I have everything off , then someone near me bluffs it out.

It has taken years to get to this point - but I pretty much see the same people on Sundays at my kids games these days - and I just blurt out - don't even think about it before saying hello.  I also make sure to not wear any Bear gear until I'm at home on Sunday - so one one mistakenly sees me and shakes there head in solidarity (as in - boy did that game suck) or the high five (which always is a bit better - cause at least I know they won).  

My wife is usually the one who will spoil it - cause she can't not see - and will than make me nervous the whole game though.  But nothing I can do about that - cause the upside is - she cares about the Bears

[adam]

10 hours ago, AZ54 said:

New sod.  This should provide better footing for this weekend.

https://www.si.com/nfl/bears/gameday/bears-hoping-for-better-footing  

6 days to root? Good luck with that.

Bermuda is all over down here in Alabama. It is actually a weed and stays really short. It should be like a putting green and fast. 

[adam]

13 hours ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

It is quite peaceful haha. 

Someone would file a missing person report on me in that amount of time lol. 

[adam]

Bears vs 49ers Positional Comparison:

QB - Fields vs Lance, edge Bears (I feel like Lance is a huge boom or bust candidate)
RB - Monty/Herbert vs Mitchell/Wilson, push (Mitchell and Monty are fairly even)
TE - Kmet vs Kittle, edge 49ers (Kittle has the experience edge and has produced some huge seasons)
WR - Mooney/Pringle/St. Brown/Jones vs Samuel/Aiyuk/Jennings/McCloud, push (Samuel is the best WR in the group, but after that, the Bears have the edge)
OL - Jones, Whitehair, Patrick, Jenkins, Borom vs Williams, McGlinchey, Banks, Brendel, Burford, push (SF has the edge on the outside, Bears on the inside)

To me the offenses as groups are pretty darn even. SF has the highest end players in Kittle and Samuel, but the Bears have the next 3 in Fields, Mooney, and Kmet. 

DL - Bosa, Armstead, Kinlaw, Ebukam vs Muhammad, Blackson, Jones, Quinn, push (when you consider the Bears have Gipson and Watts as rotational guys, they might have a slight edge)
LB - Warner, Greenlaw, Al-Shaair vs Smith, Morrow, Adams, edge Bears (Warner and Smith are pushes, Bears depth with Sanborn and Weatherford trump Oren Burks and Flannigan-Fowles for SF)
CB - Ward, Moseley, Lenoir vs Johnson, Gordon, Vildor, edge Bears (Bears top 2 CBs are a better duo than SFs)
S - Ward, Hufanga vs Jackson, Brisker, edge Bears (this position group may be the biggest advantage of all position groups)

The Bears defense by position group look better than the 49ers.

ST - Gould, Wishnowsky vs Santos, Gill, push (Kickers are a wash, Wish has bigger leg, Gill has better inside the 20 skill)

Using last year's stats, SF had a better offense and a slightly better defense than the Bears. The Bears had a better ST. Coming into this year, we can expect the Bears offense to improve considerably (+10), and the defense should be slightly better (+5). SF might start out slightly worse on offense (-5) (with Lance), and the defense is basically unchanged from last year (+0). 

Where am I going wrong?

[Mongo3451]

1 hour ago, adam said:

Where am I going wrong?

They have superior OL, WR, LB and DL.  Another thing they have going for them is that they have experience in their schemes.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

3 hours ago, adam said:

Bears vs 49ers Positional Comparison:

QB - Fields vs Lance, edge Bears (I feel like Lance is a huge boom or bust candidate)
RB - Monty/Herbert vs Mitchell/Wilson, push (Mitchell and Monty are fairly even)
TE - Kmet vs Kittle, edge 49ers (Kittle has the experience edge and has produced some huge seasons)
WR - Mooney/Pringle/St. Brown/Jones vs Samuel/Aiyuk/Jennings/McCloud, push (Samuel is the best WR in the group, but after that, the Bears have the edge)
OL - Jones, Whitehair, Patrick, Jenkins, Borom vs Williams, McGlinchey, Banks, Brendel, Burford, push (SF has the edge on the outside, Bears on the inside)

To me the offenses as groups are pretty darn even. SF has the highest end players in Kittle and Samuel, but the Bears have the next 3 in Fields, Mooney, and Kmet. 

DL - Bosa, Armstead, Kinlaw, Ebukam vs Muhammad, Blackson, Jones, Quinn, push (when you consider the Bears have Gipson and Watts as rotational guys, they might have a slight edge)
LB - Warner, Greenlaw, Al-Shaair vs Smith, Morrow, Adams, edge Bears (Warner and Smith are pushes, Bears depth with Sanborn and Weatherford trump Oren Burks and Flannigan-Fowles for SF)
CB - Ward, Moseley, Lenoir vs Johnson, Gordon, Vildor, edge Bears (Bears top 2 CBs are a better duo than SFs)
S - Ward, Hufanga vs Jackson, Brisker, edge Bears (this position group may be the biggest advantage of all position groups)

The Bears defense by position group look better than the 49ers.

ST - Gould, Wishnowsky vs Santos, Gill, push (Kickers are a wash, Wish has bigger leg, Gill has better inside the 20 skill)

Using last year's stats, SF had a better offense and a slightly better defense than the Bears. The Bears had a better ST. Coming into this year, we can expect the Bears offense to improve considerably (+10), and the defense should be slightly better (+5). SF might start out slightly worse on offense (-5) (with Lance), and the defense is basically unchanged from last year (+0). 

Where am I going wrong?

I think you are delusional on WR - Deebo is significantly better than Mooney; Aiyuk is way better than anything else we have too.  I won't comment on there oline vs. our oline - but we have a lot of unproven so I would say they are better (they did a nice job protecting Jimmy G).  And there Dline is not a push to the Bears. They have a top 3 dl and in general a top 5 defense so tehy are much better than the Bears. Bottom line - the only area I would give the bears much of a nod over the Niners is as at QB. The niners are a super bowl team, sans the uncertainty at QB.  The Bears are not.  QB can push things over and maybe our young players ascend super fast - but on paper it isn't even close.  

[adam]

I disagree on DL and LBs. 

Bears starting DL sacks last year: 31.0, Bears also have Gipson with 7 and Watts with 5 as backups.

49ers starting DL sacks last year: 26.0, SF has Ridgeway with 2 sacks, no other SF backup had a sack.

That is 43-28 in just sacks, pressures/hurries are very similar. The SF line is not the same from last year, lost Key and Ford. 

 

For LBs, technically Smith is superior to Warner in every statistical category but somehow Warner is better.

Warner 79 solo, 137 total tackles, 0.5 sacks, 7 TFL, 0 INT
Smith 95 solo, 163 total tackles, 3.0 sacks, 12 TFL, 1 INT, 1 TD

 

For WRs, Deebo is clearly the best of the bunch, Mooney next, then Aiyuk, so I will agree that they have the edge 2-1 for WRs. Edge to SF there.

For OL, SF wins the edges, but the Bears have a better interior. Analysts are saying that OLine is one of the 49ers weaknesses, so a push seems reasonable. We have not even seen the Bears new line with Patrick. 

[AZ54]

4 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

They have superior OL, WR, LB and DL.  Another thing they have going for them is that they have experience in their schemes.

Experience in their systems is definitely in their favor.  We don't yet know what we have but the discipline and organization we saw on the field throughout preseason gives me reason to be optimistic.  In the NFL stars are often the difference and they have us there.  Beyond that I feel these two teams are closer in roster talent than it appears on the surface. 

Barring big mistakes/turnovers on offense I expect our defense to perform close to what the Colts did last year against SF when they held them to 18pts.  Figure low 20's for us.   Can we manufacture 25pts or more?   It all comes down to if we can run the ball.  If we can, then we can win this game.  On top of that we will likely need at least one big play on defense or special teams to add points.   It's Week 1 there are always surprises and breakdowns.   

[Mongo3451]

13 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

It all comes down to if we can run the ball.  If we can, then we can win this game.  On top of that we will likely need at least one big play on defense or special teams to add points.   It's Week 1 there are always surprises and breakdowns.   

Any given Sunday...??

[adam]

Kittle dealing with a groin issue, not practicing. Not that you want people to be injured, but if he is not 100%, that would be huge for the Bears. Groin injuries are rarely heal in less than a week. Some reports say he hurt it on Monday, others say it was earlier and he was testing it on Monday. 

[AZ54]

That won't keep him out for the game and in any case they've used an injured Kittle before at least as a decoy.  

[AZ54]

49ers didn't even name Lance as a team captain a day after signing JimmyG to a new deal.  Now we already get articles talking about if he'll get replaced mid-season (and 3 Oline players are listed too).  If for any reason Lance and their offense play poorly in the first half the pressure will ratchet upward.  OTOH Fields is coming in with low expectations for the offense and what many are saying is a poor supporting cast.  

https://ninerswire.usatoday.com/lists/49ers-depth-chart-starters-replaced-trey-lance-jauan-jennings/

https://ninerswire.usatoday.com/2022/09/07/49ers-name-team-captains-qb-trey-lance/

[Alaskan Grizzly]

17 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

 If for any reason Lance and their offense play poorly in the first half the pressure will ratchet upward.  

I would even venture to say that if Lance plays poorly then Jimmy G will take over, especially because he signed a new deal.  

[Alaskan Grizzly]

8 hours ago, adam said:

Where am I going wrong?

Somewhere else I read that there a few players on the team that would be stars elsewhere and I think that could balance more in the favor of the Bears. Take the defense for example.  Morrow (62 tkls, 3 sacks, 1 FF) would've  been out star at LB had Roquan not have returned.  Muhammad (32 tkls, 6 sacks and 1 FF) was on a dline two seasons ago that ranked #9 overall in the NFL and Justin Jones (37 tkls, 3 sacks) was one of the best run-stoppers for the Chargers last year before he became plan B to Larry Ogunjobi's failed physical.  If for nothing else these guys were starters on other teams and now aren't really considered key players in their respective roles, not yet anyhow.  

[adam]

1 hour ago, AZ54 said:

That won't keep him out for the game and in any case they've used an injured Kittle before at least as a decoy.  

I don't know, SF media seems concerned. Some were saying 7-10 days at a minimum in order to not aggravate it and make it worse and longer term. They have a home division game in Week 2 against Seattle, then Denver, then Rams. I figure they won't push it for Week 1 with those teams are coming next. 

[adam]

1 hour ago, AZ54 said:

49ers didn't even name Lance as a team captain a day after signing JimmyG to a new deal.  Now we already get articles talking about if he'll get replaced mid-season (and 3 Oline players are listed too).  If for any reason Lance and their offense play poorly in the first half the pressure will ratchet upward.  OTOH Fields is coming in with low expectations for the offense and what many are saying is a poor supporting cast.  

https://ninerswire.usatoday.com/lists/49ers-depth-chart-starters-replaced-trey-lance-jauan-jennings/

https://ninerswire.usatoday.com/2022/09/07/49ers-name-team-captains-qb-trey-lance/

Lance was 7th in Captain voting as the newly anointed QB1. Ouch, that is not a good look.