Week 2 Official Game Thread - CHI @ GB, 09/18, 7:20PM CDT, GB -10 O/U 43

[adam]

Starting out the gates +10 seems a little high after a 9 pts win and GB's double digit loss. Oddsmakers still have no faith in this team.

Can you imagine if the Bears win and head into an easier part of their schedule, 2-0 while GB sits at 0-2? That would be wild. 

 

If I go off Week 1s results, I would probably say the Bears win, but going off historical data, it looks like GB should win by a TD. So I am going to say Bears by 3, 27-24!

[scs787]

Green Bay might be without 3 starting OLmen. I know Rodgets owns the Bears, but he's gonna have some issues. 

[adam]

1 hour ago, scs787 said:

Green Bay might be without 3 starting OLmen. I know Rodgets owns the Bears, but he's gonna have some issues. 

and their original O-Line was already suspect.

They had the 2nd worst DVOA on defense last week too, only Arizona was worse. The Bears were 7th. 

This matchup is actually better for the Bears than the 49ers were. Definitely no Bakhtiari yet so the Bears will be able to get Edge pressure. They really miss Davante Adams. That loss looks bigger than any other offseason move. The Chiefs didn't miss a beat without Hill, the Seahawks beat Wilson (who had a huge game). The one big change was Adams having a huge game and GB missing him a lot. 

This really feels like THE season for Rodgers where he is just going to lose it and retire (or ask for a trade). 

People forget that they lost Getsy and Hackett as well as a bunch of assistants.

Also, if we are comparing previous seasons, this is more like Colts 2021 vs Packers 2022. 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

2 hours ago, adam said:

This really feels like THE season for Rodgers where he is just going to lose it and retire (or ask for a trade). 

I felt the same way last year after GB got blown out by NO in their season opener 38-3.  

[Mongo3451]

2 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

I felt the same way last year after GB got blown out by NO in their season opener 38-3.  

That didn't end well for us...

[adam]

2 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

I felt the same way last year after GB got blown out by NO in their season opener 38-3.  

Somewhat similar in terms of Week 1 outcome, but in this offseason he lost DaVante Adams and MVS, and replaced them with Sammy Watkins and a rookie. Those 2 WRs accounted for close to 50% of the receptions, 50% of the receiving yards, and 14 of 39 TDs. 

Adams had 169 targets and MVS had 50. Rodgers QB Rating throwing to Adams has been insane. In 2020, it was the highest ever at 136.9. That is basically irreplaceable. Losing someone of that caliber is going to cut Rodgers production by at least 10-15%, so all his stats, including Comp%, TD, INTs, should be worse this year. 

People keep forgetting that it is a completely new offensive staff Rodgers is dealing with. 

[AZ54]

I'm just going to speak myself here as a Bears fan but Justin Fields is also dealing with a completely new offensive system, much less new coaches.  He put up 19 pts against one of the top 5 defenses from last year.  If the NFL MVP can't muster something similar against the Vikings defense which is also dealing with a similar all-new transition to a 3-4 front then yes he shares the blame.  

[BearFan PHX]

I think one of the best things I've heard from Eberflus so far is the idea that the Bears win and lose on their own, it doesnt matter who the opponent is. And also that they out work people so they have an advantage in the 4th quarter. If he can keep this team believing that, we could do quite well.

[Stinger226]

If Green Bay runs the ball well, it will not be eas to win. Low penalties and a few TOs and we can have similar results. 

[AZ54]

I watched MNF and already it's clear we got the right offensive coach out of GB.  We also have the guy that has been the voice in Rodgers ear for the last 3 years.  He knows as well as anyone what he likes to do and how he "sees" the game.  Conversely Getsy also knows what Rodgers doesn't like to see in a defense.  In the grand scheme of things those are small tidbits that might help here or there because in the end it always comes down to execution.  Unlike Lance, Rodgers isn't going airmail easy passes over the head of his WRs but he might miss them if they are in the wrong spot at the wrong time.  If we're in cover 2 Vildor will provide Rodgers the best target for his favorite pass into the gap.  Just like last year where they ran Adams all over the field to get him away from J. Johnson they will be trying to get that matchup with whoever they like best.  I don't know which WR that might be.     

Their DBs should match up well against our WRs but the front 7 isn't anywhere near what we just saw but they are good.  Nothing has changed since training camp for me, if we can run we can win.  You could say we couldn't run against SF but that was early and once we could run the game changed.  One thing that I'm hearing now is how the coaches changed up some of the run blocking fits to match what the 49ers were doing.  Can Getsy's knowledge help us get off to a quicker start?  How does Fields' mobility affect what they want to do?  After the 49ers game I'm going to guess we will see more of a controlled rush focused on keeping him in the pocket likely augmented with blitzes off the edge to test our OTs and Fields on the road.  

Defense against Rodgers is really just about getting pressure from the front 4.  When it's too easy they need to be watching for the screens to the RBs.    I'd expect their runs to look a lot like our runs, and what we just saw from the 49ers.  In that sense there  shouldn't be too many surprises there, just gotta execute.  Their Oline is a bit banged up, maybe we'll see some backups on the edge.  Are there any tells Getsy can provide to the defense?  Given Eberflus' attention to detail I'm sure there isn't much he doesn't already know from his time as a DC.  

Given the progress of the Oline in game 1 I'm optimistic we can put up at least 24pts but I think we'll need 28 to win on road.  Can the D provide it? 

 

 

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, AZ54 said:

I watched MNF and already it's clear we got the right offensive coach out of GB.  We also have the guy that has been the voice in Rodgers ear for the last 3 years.  He knows as well as anyone what he likes to do and how he "sees" the game.  Conversely Getsy also knows what Rodgers doesn't like to see in a defense.  In the grand scheme of things those are small tidbits that might help here or there because in the end it always comes down to execution.  Unlike Lance, Rodgers isn't going airmail easy passes over the head of his WRs but he might miss them if they are in the wrong spot at the wrong time.  If we're in cover 2 Vildor will provide Rodgers the best target for his favorite pass into the gap.  Just like last year where they ran Adams all over the field to get him away from J. Johnson they will be trying to get that matchup with whoever they like best.  I don't know which WR that might be.     

Their DBs should match up well against our WRs but the front 7 isn't anywhere near what we just saw but they are good.  Nothing has changed since training camp for me, if we can run we can win.  You could say we couldn't run against SF but that was early and once we could run the game changed.  One thing that I'm hearing now is how the coaches changed up some of the run blocking fits to match what the 49ers were doing.  Can Getsy's knowledge help us get off to a quicker start?  How does Fields' mobility affect what they want to do?  After the 49ers game I'm going to guess we will see more of a controlled rush focused on keeping him in the pocket likely augmented with blitzes off the edge to test our OTs and Fields on the road.  

Defense against Rodgers is really just about getting pressure from the front 4.  When it's too easy they need to be watching for the screens to the RBs.    I'd expect their runs to look a lot like our runs, and what we just saw from the 49ers.  In that sense there  shouldn't be too many surprises there, just gotta execute.  Their Oline is a bit banged up, maybe we'll see some backups on the edge.  Are there any tells Getsy can provide to the defense?  Given Eberflus' attention to detail I'm sure there isn't much he doesn't already know from his time as a DC.  

Given the progress of the Oline in game 1 I'm optimistic we can put up at least 24pts but I think we'll need 28 to win on road.  Can the D provide it? 

 

 

well said, I think youre right. 27+ to have a shot at winning.

[adam]

We have a secret weapon or 3.

Getsy + Patrick + St. Brown.

They know tendencies, strengths and weaknesses from the inside. Getsy knows exactly how to attack his old defense and where they are weak. He also knows the offensive schemes. I know they can easily change these up but the overarching theme is the same. 

The best part for our offense is that last week's game was so bad with the weather that there is virtually no clean tape on the Bears offense. That is a bonus going into this type of game. We need every tangible and intangible edge we can get.

We are underdogs and expected to lose. This one sets up even better than Week 1 does.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

Only the faithful.  (From Twitter)

 

[Stinger226]

9 hours ago, AZ54 said:

I watched MNF and already it's clear we got the right offensive coach out of GB.  We also have the guy that has been the voice in Rodgers ear for the last 3 years.  He knows as well as anyone what he likes to do and how he "sees" the game.  Conversely Getsy also knows what Rodgers doesn't like to see in a defense.  In the grand scheme of things those are small tidbits that might help here or there because in the end it always comes down to execution.  Unlike Lance, Rodgers isn't going airmail easy passes over the head of his WRs but he might miss them if they are in the wrong spot at the wrong time.  If we're in cover 2 Vildor will provide Rodgers the best target for his favorite pass into the gap.  Just like last year where they ran Adams all over the field to get him away from J. Johnson they will be trying to get that matchup with whoever they like best.  I don't know which WR that might be.     

Their DBs should match up well against our WRs but the front 7 isn't anywhere near what we just saw but they are good.  Nothing has changed since training camp for me, if we can run we can win.  You could say we couldn't run against SF but that was early and once we could run the game changed.  One thing that I'm hearing now is how the coaches changed up some of the run blocking fits to match what the 49ers were doing.  Can Getsy's knowledge help us get off to a quicker start?  How does Fields' mobility affect what they want to do?  After the 49ers game I'm going to guess we will see more of a controlled rush focused on keeping him in the pocket likely augmented with blitzes off the edge to test our OTs and Fields on the road.  

Defense against Rodgers is really just about getting pressure from the front 4.  When it's too easy they need to be watching for the screens to the RBs.    I'd expect their runs to look a lot like our runs, and what we just saw from the 49ers.  In that sense there  shouldn't be too many surprises there, just gotta execute.  Their Oline is a bit banged up, maybe we'll see some backups on the edge.  Are there any tells Getsy can provide to the defense?  Given Eberflus' attention to detail I'm sure there isn't much he doesn't already know from his time as a DC.  

Given the progress of the Oline in game 1 I'm optimistic we can put up at least 24pts but I think we'll need 28 to win on road.  Can the D provide it? 

 

 

Knowing what their defense does, Getsy will be able to make a plan that works. Only a few different players on D and he practiced against them all last yr. It will come down to TOs in this game. Also their leading tackler might be out this week, Quay Walker. 3 OL could be out, and Lazard. This game could be easier than we may ever imagine. Just think what the National press will say if we beat two of the top teams in the NFC. 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

From Facebook:

 

[Mongo3451]

36 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

From Facebook:

 

Why would he do that?  Geesh...

 

[AZ54]

It's Facebook so who knows what is real.  

[Mongo3451]

Lol, true...

[AZ54]

4 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

Why would he do that?  Geesh...

 

Here's a quote from the Bears website, doesn't sound at all like the above statement.  

https://www.chicagobears.com/news/bears-hoping-to-flip-script-on-longtime-nemesis-aaron-rodgers-packers

"It's going to start with the D-line," Gipson said. "He knows how to hard-count, catch some guys in substitutions. We're going to have to be clean on that, and just disciplined. No offsides, no roughing the passer, no dumb penalties. It's a rivalry game, so we're going to have to keep our poise. He's a vet; he knows how to play this game. We're just going to have to keep our poise and disrupt him as much as possible."

[Alaskan Grizzly]

20 hours ago, AZ54 said:

Here's a quote from the Bears website, doesn't sound at all like the above statement

Probably a different “interview”.  His trash talk was repeated a few other places.  As long as he backs it up on Sunday and keeps the pressure.  I’d like for the Bears to be ‘dis-owned’ by Rodgers.

 

[Bill]

As a homer fan I am again picking the Bears to win.  Last week I said 23-13 because of the D and Lances lack of game experience.  Can't say that this week with Rogers.  But he does have little to no chemistry with his WR's.  Again, the other team is better on paper.  But I think because it's just the 2nd game of the season they have a good chance to pull off an upset with just hustle and guts.  Yea and about 23 points will be enough

[Stinger226]

Usually good teams don't lose two in a row, especially after they got their ass kicked. If we can get a couple TOs and keep them around 100 yds rushing, we could win. This ones going to be tough. If Fields steps up and we can run the ball, maybe. I think 27-23 hoping we wun.

[AZ54]

It appears Eiselen is the backup C again which means Patrick and Jenkins will likely split reps at RG.  

As far as the release of Moore and Tavon Young I'm not sure what that portends other than we have no reason in terms of potential benefit to keep them around this year.  Were their injuries so severe they couldn't return or do we simply have better options now?  At WR I can guess the better option is ISM and Pettis plus we have Harry expected to return soon.  At CB our depth is Lamar Jackson, Jaylon Jones, and Josh Blackwell and I don't think there's anyone promising on the practice squad.  

https://www.windycitygridiron.com/2022/9/17/23358548/chicago-bears-elevate-dieter-eiselen-release-2-from-the-injured-list-tavon-young-david-moore

[Stinger226]

If Karma actually exists, beating GB will teach the National media to pay attention more. Also some of the beat writers are on the down side of expectations. There is some merit for low expectations, but I drink a lot of coolaid. 

[AZ54]

7 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

If Karma actually exists, beating GB will teach the National media to pay attention more. Also some of the beat writers are on the down side of expectations. There is some merit for low expectations, but I drink a lot of coolaid. 

It’s just not going to happen.   They would jump on the bandwagon without hesitation.