Fields compared to other QBs

[adam]

One of the biggest indicators of success is looking at DVOA; it is way more accurate than QB Rating, QBR, PFF, etc.

Right now Fields is -75.4%, 33rd in the league, dead last by a country mile. The only glimmer of hope is guys like Burrow and Prescott are near Fields at the bottom after two weeks.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/qb/2022

Last year, Fields was 32nd at -28.4%, behind Dalton and Brissett and ahead of only Darnold and Wilson. 

So he is actually trending down. His DVOA numbers look like Haskins (who had back to back -40% seasons), Kizer, Rosens, and Osweiler over the last 5-6 years. That is the group he is in right now and just trended to the worst of the group. -75.4% would be the worst QB DVOA for a full season by 30+%, which is historically bad. 

The bottom line is Fields needs to improve and do so quickly. Anymore sub 200 yard passing games and it is highly likely that he is who he is right now. 

 

Just for fun:

Looking at RBs, the worst RB with a -66.9% is Montgomery, the next closest is Drake at -43.0%. Again, it is early and guys like Henry and Ekeler are also in the negative. If Monty's number stayed around there, it would be the worst RB DVOA ever for a full season. Joshua Kelley -36.4% in 2020 was the lowest I could find in the last 10 years and Chris Perry (CIN) -41.8%. 

 

For WRs, Mooney is not eligible for the leaderboard, but his DVOA is -96.2%, 4th worst in the NFL. 

Griffin is the only TE to register a catch and he is currently last for TEs with 3 or less receptions. 

So we have basically the worst QB, RB, WR, TE in the NFL according to DVOA. 

The O-Line is 23rd, the D-Line is 20th.

As a team, the Bears are 30th in DVOA, 30th on Offense, and 27th on Defense, Special Teams is 24th. Last year the Bears finished 24th. 

 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

2 hours ago, adam said:

The only glimmer of hope is guys like Burrow and Prescott are near Fields at the bottom after two weeks.

So one comparison (Prescott) is out indefinitely for the season and the other was a whisker away from winning the Super Bowl last year?  Seems we still need time this year to see how this shakes out.  

[adam]

1 hour ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

So one comparison (Prescott) is out indefinitely for the season and the other was a whisker away from winning the Super Bowl last year?  Seems we still need time this year to see how this shakes out.  

Yep, exactly, that is why I mentioned them. There is still hope, but every week there is not visible improvement, the odds will shrink considerably. 

[AZ54]

I watched Troy Aikman in his first two seasons and there was nothing there that said Hall of Fame.  Brees' first 5 seasons were good enough that, with an injury, San Diego walked away from him rather than see if he might become a HofF QB.  Ben Roethlisberger took years to become a great passer.  Nobody knows what the future holds after just 12 games.  

Like everyone else I want to see improvement but I'm not going to say Fields must improve immediately.. or else he'll never be a good starter... as he gets ready for just his 13th NFL game and just 3rd game with a new offense.     

We all want big numbers but for me he has led the offense while missing 3 of his top 5 receivers (Pringle, Velus, and Harry) to put up 19pts and then 17pts against two of the top defenses in the NFC.  GB and SF were both top 10 in the league in 2021 against both the run and pass in terms of yards given up.  There is nothing crazy good there but IMO this is the floor.  I'm willing to see where it goes from here.    

[Stinger226]

We need the 17 games to make an honest opinion of his future going forward. In trying to access it game by game it wont play well. 

[adam]

One interesting (bad) stat:

25% of Fields passing attempts result in an INT or Sack. That is 1 in every 4 pass attempts is a sack or INT.

Joe Burrow is 2nd with 19.1%, Winston is 17.5%, Stafford is 16.8, and Daniel Jones is 16.3%. No other QBs are over 15%. 

 

On the flip side, Mahomes is 1.3%, Herbert is 3.6%, and Lawrence is 4.1%.

[AZ54]

9 hours ago, adam said:

One interesting (bad) stat:

25% of Fields passing attempts result in an INT or Sack. That is 1 in every 4 pass attempts is a sack or INT.

Joe Burrow is 2nd with 19.1%, Winston is 17.5%, Stafford is 16.8, and Daniel Jones is 16.3%. No other QBs are over 15%. 

 

On the flip side, Mahomes is 1.3%, Herbert is 3.6%, and Lawrence is 4.1%.

In the world of statistics there is a thing called sample size.  With this small of a sample, 2 games, one of which had some really bad weather, combined with the NFL learning curve for a young QB we just have to be patient. 

Listening to the coaches they aren't worried at all about Fields.  Getting the passing game going yes.  That doesn't mean there aren't things Fields needs to improve upon.  Called pass plays was closer to 50% but on several Fields just ran with the ball including the first TD run.   On the deep ball to Mooney it was interesting to hear Getsy describe how Mooney ran the route wrong.  Then Fields threw the ball where it was supposed to go but should have thrown to fit the route Mooney ran.   Both players were at fault and Getsy took ownership for making sure they know the details better.   

The part I liked most from Getsy was him describing how he wants to take what a defense is giving us.  It wasn't just a platitude.  He has a clear what and why for those coverages, personnel, fronts, etc.  That's why he kept running in the 4th quarter because that was what GB was giving us.  I think that's worth noting because 1) I've had years of watching Nagy call plays without consideration for what the defense was doing or where their strength was (i.e.   don't run C. Patterson up the middle on 4th and 1 just because you think they don't expect it to happen).   2) they were specific types of runs planned to attack the weakness of that D and   3) it worked for 90yds.   It worked well enough that it got Aaron Rodgers and Aaron Jones up off the bench to watch what their former coach was doing to their defense.  

The passing game has more variables and takes a lot more work to get timing down.  Of course we have the inexperience at QB but Fields isn't giving up on figuring it out.  Getsy made me optimistic to see this come together over the course of the season.  

[adam]

6 hours ago, AZ54 said:

In the world of statistics there is a thing called sample size.  With this small of a sample, 2 games, one of which had some really bad weather, combined with the NFL learning curve for a young QB we just have to be patient. 

Listening to the coaches they aren't worried at all about Fields.  Getting the passing game going yes.  That doesn't mean there aren't things Fields needs to improve upon.  Called pass plays was closer to 50% but on several Fields just ran with the ball including the first TD run.   On the deep ball to Mooney it was interesting to hear Getsy describe how Mooney ran the route wrong.  Then Fields threw the ball where it was supposed to go but should have thrown to fit the route Mooney ran.   Both players were at fault and Getsy took ownership for making sure they know the details better.   

The part I liked most from Getsy was him describing how he wants to take what a defense is giving us.  It wasn't just a platitude.  He has a clear what and why for those coverages, personnel, fronts, etc.  That's why he kept running in the 4th quarter because that was what GB was giving us.  I think that's worth noting because 1) I've had years of watching Nagy call plays without consideration for what the defense was doing or where their strength was (i.e.   don't run C. Patterson up the middle on 4th and 1 just because you think they don't expect it to happen).   2) they were specific types of runs planned to attack the weakness of that D and   3) it worked for 90yds.   It worked well enough that it got Aaron Rodgers and Aaron Jones up off the bench to watch what their former coach was doing to their defense.  

The passing game has more variables and takes a lot more work to get timing down.  Of course we have the inexperience at QB but Fields isn't giving up on figuring it out.  Getsy made me optimistic to see this come together over the course of the season.  

The next two games will be telling. Texans and Giants, both improved teams, but still the lower half of the league. If Fields is not getting 20+ passing attempts in both games, that is a red flag. The running game may have been working, but it also chewed a ton of time off the clock. So it is a double edged sword. They were basically protecting against the deep shot with 2 deep safeties and making the Bears beat them underneath or with the run. The Bears still elected to run instead of the quick passing game. 

My concern is at some point the numbers are the numbers. His 25% may be a small sample size but for Fields career, he is at 17.8%, which would be the worst all time for any QB. He needs to start going 20+ attempts without a sack or INT. The rate is just too high for a negative play. 

David Carr, who everyone has as the poster boy for getting sacked out of the league only had a 10.5% Sack+Int to Attempt ratio for his career.

A guy like Dwayne Haskins was at 14%. Fields has to show significant improvement in the next two weeks. 

[Stinger226]

I do not get some of his decisions, it seemed like he looked at an open WR and then threw to a check down. His moving in the pocket, it looked like he could have stepped up and avoided a sack. He ran past the LOS, had to know that, and passed anyways, could have made a first down on the run.

[adam]

On 9/22/2022 at 3:24 PM, adam said:

One interesting (bad) stat:

25% of Fields passing attempts result in an INT or Sack. That is 1 in every 4 pass attempts is a sack or INT.

Joe Burrow is 2nd with 19.1%, Winston is 17.5%, Stafford is 16.8, and Daniel Jones is 16.3%. No other QBs are over 15%. 

 

On the flip side, Mahomes is 1.3%, Herbert is 3.6%, and Lawrence is 4.1%.

Continuing this trend. Today Fields had 2 INTs and 5 sacks on 17 pass attempts. So his INT+Sack to Attempt ratio was 41.2% and they somehow won the game.

 

Today Mac Jones had 321 Passing yards, 0 TD, 3 INT, and 3 sacks. 6 negative plays with 32 passing attempts, 18.75% is one of his worst games and still lower than Fields

Lawrence had 262 and 3 TD (and beat the Chargers). 

 

[dawhizz]

Fields just ain’t it, man. These are unacceptable statistical performances. I don’t care what the scheme is or your surrounding cast is. No other #1 QB in the league would put up these numbers. Everyone acted like the Bears personnel decisions set up Fields to fail, but I see plenty of plays with decent protection and open options and just misses. He’s started nearly a season’s worth of games and has four total games over 200 yards passing and none over 300. 

[adam]

9 hours ago, dawhizz said:

Fields just ain’t it, man. These are unacceptable statistical performances. I don’t care what the scheme is or your surrounding cast is. No other #1 QB in the league would put up these numbers. Everyone acted like the Bears personnel decisions set up Fields to fail, but I see plenty of plays with decent protection and open options and just misses. He’s started nearly a season’s worth of games and has four total games over 200 yards passing and none over 300. 

These 3 games have been statistically one of the worst 3-game stretches for a QB going back at least the last 20 years. He has 23 completions and 297 yards in 3 starts. That is an average of 7 completions and 99 passing yards per game. It is almost beyond comical at this point. Since Week 1 he has literally regressed in every imaginable way. Holding the ball too long, instead of stepping up into the pocket, sidesteps right into sacks, inaccurate passes, going thru his progressions too slow, bad mechanics. 

30 QB started games so far this week. Fields had 64 fewer yards than the 29th QB (Mayfield), had 4 less completions than Mayfield, and one less attempt than Tua, yet was 2nd in INTs with 2.  Before the game, HOU had one of the worst passing defenses and is now ranked 11th (Pass Def Yards). It is not going to get easier for Fields as the Giants have the 8th best Pass Def in terms iof yards, but luckily for him, they have 0 INTs and only 3 sacks (in 2 games). 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

Sexy Rexy and Kyle Ortman with 3 wins a piece against the arch enemy.  We gave been going backwards with drafting/developing QBs since we had them. 

 

[lemonej]

The worst thing for me, who is a supporter of Fields is that I can visibly see that he is misreading coverage. The best pass play of the game was a throw to ESB that was schemed very well, where Fields threw a dime and read the coverage right. Then there was the forced throw to Mooney that was picked with 3 defenders surrounding him.

Watching what Jacksonville did in the offseason and how Trevor Lawrence has done so far is what bothers me the most. He and Fields were the top High School prospects at the position at the same time.

I want so bad for Fields to break the Ohio State QB stigma because I'm tired of hearing that because there are so many schools that have QBs that crash and burn in the NFL.

How many QBs from Kunztown ST have started a game in the NFL since Eric Hipple?

[adam]

4 hours ago, lemonej said:

The worst thing for me, who is a supporter of Fields is that I can visibly see that he is misreading coverage. The best pass play of the game was a throw to ESB that was schemed very well, where Fields threw a dime and read the coverage right. Then there was the forced throw to Mooney that was picked with 3 defenders surrounding him.

Watching what Jacksonville did in the offseason and how Trevor Lawrence has done so far is what bothers me the most. He and Fields were the top High School prospects at the position at the same time.

I want so bad for Fields to break the Ohio State QB stigma because I'm tired of hearing that because there are so many schools that have QBs that crash and burn in the NFL.

How many QBs from Kunztown ST have started a game in the NFL since Eric Hipple?

He is literally doing EVERYTHING wrong right now. On both of his INTs, terrible footwork. He is scrambling into sacks instead of stepping up. He is either missing his reads or not reading the coverage. He is still slow to throw the ball. That to me seems like his biggest problem. Either he is waiting to see them open before throwing or he is just slow to execute after he sees it. 

To me the worst part is he has clearly regressed. Watch the Steelers game from last year. Also, if you take his name off the stats, how many guys are going to get more starts with numbers that bad. I am looking into how bad right now. I even bought a subscription to find out.

[adam]

There have been only 26 games since 2000 where a QB had at least 15 attempts, less than 150 yds passing, 0 TDs, at least 2 INT & 5 sacks. Justin Fields just had one of them. Teams are 2-24 with a QB with those stats, and Fields is the first QB to win a game in regulation with those stats. 

QBs with 2 games:

David Carr, Jay Fiedler, Jon Kitna, and Josh Rosen

 

Only 3 times since the start of 2020, Fields plus:

Ian Book on 12/27/2021 NO vs MIA, 20-3 Loss

Sam Darnold on 10/25/2020 NYJ vs BUF, 18-10 Loss

 

The Bears have the most games and QBs with 4: (Fields, Hanie, Krenzel, and McNown). Miami is the only other team with 3 or more games (Fiedler x2, Rosen).

[adam]

Fields DVOA got worse, now at 79.3%, historically bad, almost impossible to just get back to average QB. 
Team improved, now 23rd overall, 28th on offense, 11th on defense.

[adam]

Crazy comparison, but for those old enough to remember McNown drafted in 1999 with the 12th pick. This is basically what he did over a 2 year span. After an injury in Year 2, they never went back to him:

Cade McNown 8-17, 281-515, 54.6%, 3111 yds, 16 TD, 19 INT, 45 sacks
Justin Fields 4-10, 193-337, 57.3%, 2341 yds, 9 TD, 14 INT, 52 sacks

Fields already has been sacked more times than McNown, and is projected to have less TDs and more INTs in the same amount of attempts. 

Fields trajectory is not good. Nothing is clicking. This is now his second offense and there are no signs of improvement. 

It looks like he will get a year, but man, if there are no signs of improvement, it is going to be a long season.

He has a chance to surpass the times sacked record, especially with a 17th game (if he makes it that far). Carr was sacked 76 times, Fields on pace for 68.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

They need to play call for this better.

[BearFan PHX]

thats on plays where he was kept clean while he took too long to make his reads. If he gets the ball out of his hand more quickly, then the OL doenst need to hold blocks as long to "keep him clean"

The best example was Dan Marino beating the 85 Bears. No team brought more pressure than that defensive front, and yet with a 3 steps and it's gone Marino perfection, even unblocked rushers couldnt get to him in time.

Somewhere in the middle is the successful possible future for Fields. But this OL stat still says a lot about Fields' ability.

Fields has all the physical tools. He just needs the light to come on seeing the plays. Maybe he never will, or maybe week 9 it will suddenly show. Im rooting for him to find it, but Im sure not betting an $ that he will.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

Saw a highlight film of Justin during the last game of all his passes and runs (unable to link it here).  I don’t get the impression he’s unable to scan the field, if given time. The Tweet I shared above added that when he was rushed he had something like 2.2 seconds to react. It’s clear the interior lineman are doing him no favors.  It seemed as though he was doing relatively well for the first and third quarters then he got more rushed as each half progressed and started to scramble and miss ‘easy’ throws. 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

Fields compared to Stafford when they play SF this year.

Stafford: 254 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT, 71 RTG

Fields:  121 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT, 85.7 RTG

Fields played against this defense during a monsoon and hasn’t won a Super Bowl. 

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Saw a highlight film of Justin during the last game of all his passes and runs (unable to link it here).  I don’t get the impression he’s unable to scan the field, if given time. The Tweet I shared above added that when he was rushed he had something like 2.2 seconds to react. It’s clear the interior lineman are doing him no favors.  It seemed as though he was doing relatively well for the first and third quarters then he got more rushed as each half progressed and started to scramble and miss ‘easy’ throws. 

I think he is taking too long to make each read, and isnt trusting what he sees with a fast trigger. That means when he does throw it, the defense has had a bit more of a bead on where the ball is going.

Eberflus said that they focused on his footwork and timing, the idea being that the footwork is the tempo, and the reads come in specific rhythms at that tempo. I did see Fields moving through his progressions more quickly - his head was moving in faster intervals, but I didnt see decisive moments when he took the first or second read in rhythm.

I think he may be progressing, but it's not enough to change the outcome yet. A few more bits of growth, and they may start to connect into something more solid. Can he make that growth? I dunno.

[adam]

8 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Fields compared to Stafford when they play SF this year.

Stafford: 254 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT, 71 RTG

Fields:  121 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT, 85.7 RTG

Fields played against this defense during a monsoon and hasn’t won a Super Bowl. 

Did you see that SF defense last night? If the Bears played SF last night, our offense would've scored -2pts.

Also, I was never really that high on Stafford. He was a stat padder in Detroit, then lucked into a perfect scenario in LA for one year. I doubt they do much else while he is the QB. It is not hard throwing to the best WR in the league. Just look at Rodgers, no Davante, and not a single game over 255 yds passing since.

That is becoming my only sliver of hope with Fields. He really doesn't have the weapons. 

[adam]

On 9/27/2022 at 2:49 PM, adam said:

Fields DVOA got worse, now at 79.3%, historically bad, almost impossible to just get back to average QB. 
Team improved, now 23rd overall, 28th on offense, 11th on defense.

Fields IMPROVED! Now only at -65.2%, still last behind Mayfield by -22.4%, and Mayfield is -16.1% behind Daniel Jones. 

Team now 27th, offense 29th, defense dropped to 18th.