Roster stuff

[BearFan PHX]

The Raiders just signed Devante to a deal last year. The cap hit to them, to trade him would be too much to even consider.

I dont think they can even do it, no matter all the other arguments for and against?

[AZ54]

15 hours ago, adam said:

In other news, the Bears dodged another bullet with the Derek Carr situation. If they were going after Wilson before, I could see them going after Carr if this situation was just a year or so ago with Pace and Nagy. Pace trades the house for Carr and he continues his streak as one of the losingist QBs of all time. All the guy does is lose. He seems like a super nice guy, but is basically a poor man's Matthew Stafford. Most stats compiled in garbage time, flashes some plays here and there, but loses more games for you than he wins for you.

On the flip side, this opens up Davante Adams for a potential trade. If Carr is gone and Adams is not going back to GB, there are only a handful of teams he could go to, the Bears with Fields, Falcons with Ridder, Giants with Jones, Patriots with Jones, or Seahawks with Smith. It would seem like the Bears would be the best spot for him.

Would you be open to trading the #2 pick for someone like Adams and the Raiders 1st Rounder?

Bears #2 for Adams, Raiders #9 and Raiders #40? That would be like valuing Adams as the #20 pick in the draft. If they traded Claypool for #32, 12 picks earlier seems reasonable for Adams. That would give the Bears Adams and 4 picks in the top 65. They would miss out on Carter or Anderson, but with so many holes to fill, would either one of those guys make an impact on this year's defense so much to change the outcome of any games? Maybe, but a WR Corps of Adams, Claypool, Mooney all of a sudden becomes top 10 over night. I would at least consider it.

For me that's a no-brainer deal.  The loss of cap space by taking on that high salary is offset enough by the two draft picks.   9 overall is still high enough that we can add someone like Skoronski or Bresee.   I can't figure out who I'd take at 40 if we already had Skoronski because I still have a lot of scouting to do.   If Bresee were the pick at 9 then there are plenty of Rd 2 Oline on the board.       

[BearFan PHX]

52 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

For me that's a no-brainer deal.  The loss of cap space by taking on that high salary is offset enough by the two draft picks.   9 overall is still high enough that we can add someone like Skoronski or Bresee.   I can't figure out who I'd take at 40 if we already had Skoronski because I still have a lot of scouting to do.   If Bresee were the pick at 9 then there are plenty of Rd 2 Oline on the board.       

actually Devante would be very cap friendly for us, coming at basically half price. The problem is the raiders would have all his guaranteed money accelerate against their cap right away.

If you sign a player to a long term deal big money deal, you cant afford to trade them the next year. We even had to wait a couple years before trading Mack and it was still a cap destroying move for this year.

Remember the guaranteed money stays against the cap of the team that signed the contract and doesnt go to new team with the player. ANd where before that guaranteed money was spread across the years of the deal, if you trade the guy, it all comes due that year. (or over two years for a June first cut) - LV cant afford to trade Devante this year.

[Stinger226]

42 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

actually Devante would be very cap friendly for us, coming at basically half price. The problem is the raiders would have all his guaranteed money accelerate against their cap right away.

If you sign a player to a long term deal big money deal, you cant afford to trade them the next year. We even had to wait a couple years before trading Mack and it was still a cap destroying move for this year.

Remember the guaranteed money stays against the cap of the team that signed the contract and doesnt go to new team with the player. ANd where before that guaranteed money was spread across the years of the deal, if you trade the guy, it all comes due that year. (or over two years for a June first cut) - LV cant afford to trade Devante this year.

I agree plus Adams age and contract would not be practical. I would rather they trade Waller and Crosby plus pick. Waller is a playmaker to. Both are still young.

[Stinger226]

One signing that Poles got was a CB Michael Ojemudia from the Broncos. He had a good rookie season,  was injured last year but with the new regime got lost in this years DB room with the drafting of Patrick Sutain Jr  Swifty did a video on him, I think he sticks around on the roster in 2023. 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

9 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

CB Michael Ojemudia from the Broncos. He had a good rookie season

If memory serves that would still have been during Fangios time in Denver and explains why he did so well.  I agree if he is as good as Fangio thinks (assuming a lot) then he’s definitely worth keeping around.  Could flourish with Flus.  

[BearFan PHX]

12 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

If memory serves that would still have been during Fangios time in Denver and explains why he did so well.  I agree if he is as good as Fangio thinks (assuming a lot) then he’s definitely worth keeping around.  Could flourish with Flus.  

yes, he is a zone CB, so he should fit in well to our system!

[AZ54]

14 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

 The problem is the raiders would have all his guaranteed money accelerate against their cap right away.

Yeah, that's not my problem. 

What we don't know is when Josh McDaniels was hired what was quietly said about the team.  Did McDaniels tell them that Carr was not his QB but was he asked if he could try to make it work for 1 season?   If that didn't work would the GM and owner then allow him to blowup and rebuild the roster?  For a new HC to give up 1yr of his short leash is a challenge.

The Bears were in a similar spot and I believe Poles and Eberflus committed to 1 season with Fields but also had the green light to move on in 2023 if they desired.  Of course they had no realistic option with no 1st Rd pick and no cap space.  Regardless, there is no doubt the QB position comes up in any GM/HC hiring process.

In 2022 McDaniels and the GM had options and decided to use their resources to bring in Adams.  "See if we can make this work with Carr".    They kept their powder dry for 2023 and now have a new slate of options.   Dangling Adams as trade bait to move up and get a QB is not out of the question.   Per OTC they will of course lose their $43mil cash they paid him last year.   People say they wasted the money but in effect they are using it to help buy a draft pick.  Is that too much to buy a top pick in the draft and your future starting QB?  In the context of what Denver paid last year (draft compensation plus salary for Wilson) it is not.   In fact it's a much better deal.   

https://overthecap.com/player/davante-adams/2992

If the Adams trade is labeled as "post Jun 1st" then LV carries just $7.8mil in dead cap space for each of the next 5 years.  Or the length of their rookie QB contract.   Their  cap savings go from $4 to 6/17/36mil per year over the next 4 seasons, starting in 2023.   If that is correct then it is very feasible for them trade him.     

I'm not confident on this but it appears the Bears would carry Adams with cap hits of:  $14.5 mil and then $25mil in 2024.   He'd never see the $44mil in 2025 but we'd be free to renegotiate if we wanted, or just cut him and give that $44mil to Mr. Fields. 

That's the downside because it could just be a 2yr rental on a top 5 WR.  If you think you can win the Superbowl in 2024 that would be worth it.  On the flip side, having  just 2 realistic years on the deal is also why Poles would be asking for that 2nd Rd pick. 

Adams went there in part to play with his good friend Carr.  He is not likely to be happy seeing him benched and the team moving forward with a new QB.  At his age, 31 in 2023, that makes a ton of sense and he'll likely want to go to a playoff team.   

With so much cap space, every agent is likely to want to talk with Poles at the combine.  Adams' agent might be part of that long line.      

[BearFan PHX]

40 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

Yeah, that's not my problem. 

What we don't know is when Josh McDaniels was hired what was quietly said about the team.  Did McDaniels tell them that Carr was not his QB but was he asked if he could try to make it work for 1 season?   If that didn't work would the GM and owner then allow him to blowup and rebuild the roster?  For a new HC to give up 1yr of his short leash is a challenge.

The Bears were in a similar spot and I believe Poles and Eberflus committed to 1 season with Fields but also had the green light to move on in 2023 if they desired.  Of course they had no realistic option with no 1st Rd pick and no cap space.  Regardless, there is no doubt the QB position comes up in any GM/HC hiring process.

In 2022 McDaniels and the GM had options and decided to use their resources to bring in Adams.  "See if we can make this work with Carr".    They kept their powder dry for 2023 and now have a new slate of options.   Dangling Adams as trade bait to move up and get a QB is not out of the question.   Per OTC they will of course lose their $43mil cash they paid him last year.   People say they wasted the money but in effect they are using it to help buy a draft pick.  Is that too much to buy a top pick in the draft and your future starting QB?  In the context of what Denver paid last year (draft compensation plus salary for Wilson) it is not.   In fact it's a much better deal.   

https://overthecap.com/player/davante-adams/2992

If the Adams trade is labeled as "post Jun 1st" then LV carries just $7.8mil in dead cap space for each of the next 5 years.  Or the length of their rookie QB contract.   Their  cap savings go from $4 to 6/17/36mil per year over the next 4 seasons, starting in 2023.   If that is correct then it is very feasible for them trade him.     

I'm not confident on this but it appears the Bears would carry Adams with cap hits of:  $14.5 mil and then $25mil in 2024.   He'd never see the $44mil in 2025 but we'd be free to renegotiate if we wanted, or just cut him and give that $44mil to Mr. Fields. 

That's the downside because it could just be a 2yr rental on a top 5 WR.  If you think you can win the Superbowl in 2024 that would be worth it.  On the flip side, having  just 2 realistic years on the deal is also why Poles would be asking for that 2nd Rd pick. 

Adams went there in part to play with his good friend Carr.  He is not likely to be happy seeing him benched and the team moving forward with a new QB.  At his age, 31 in 2023, that makes a ton of sense and he'll likely want to go to a playoff team.   

With so much cap space, every agent is likely to want to talk with Poles at the combine.  Adams' agent might be part of that long line.      

All of this makes sense. I agree with you.

The point I'm making is that the remaining cap hit on Adams would accelerate and ALL become due on the Raiders 2023 cap. It would gut them.

Im not saying the wasted money matters - it doesnt I agree, sunk costs and all of that. It's what it would do to their cap next year that makes it impossible.

[BearFan PHX]

Oh and re-reading, the dead cap money doesnt go across five years - that's the whole point Im making. If it goes as a June 1st cut, then it splits in half and kills 2023 and 2024 caps.

Ill lay it out here for everyone who might be confused (not saying you are!)

If you sign a player to a 5 year, $100 Million dollar deal that includes a $50 Million guarantee (aka signing bonus), then the team cuts a check to the player for $60 Million in year one, and $10 Million in years 2 thru 5. For example.

The thing is, no one can afford a $60M cap hit, so the league lets you spread that money across the life of the deal as far as the cap is concerned. So from the caps point of view, its 5 years at $20M each ($10M salary and the $50M signing bonus spread across five years)

BUT if you trade or cut that player, you no longer need to pay the player the salary portion of their deal, and the team that gets the players takes that on, the guaranteed money. But the $50M that they were going to count across five years suddenly becomes due in that year. And the Raiders would have to pay all of it at once.

Now of course they already paid the dollars to the player, but the cap hit would happen all at once, no longer spread out over the 5 years.

From the Bears point of view, it'd be a GREAT deal. Devante would only count half his value against the cap (only the salary) and we could cut him at ANY time with no ill effects (since we arent responsible for any of the guaranteed money on the cap).

It was the same deal for us with Mack. He had a huge contract, and because we traded him, we had to eat all that guaranteed money against our cap all in this year. And keep in mind, this wasnt year two of Macks deal. That's the point. We had to wait, and it still killed our cap this year. Thats why we couldnt get any good free agents this year.

When a player gets a long term deal with big guaranteed money, it makes them impossible to trade or cut for a few years.

[BearFan PHX]

In other words, when you said

"If the Adams trade is labeled as "post Jun 1st" then LV carries just $7.8mil in dead cap space for each of the next 5 years.  Or the length of their rookie QB contract."

That is the part that is incorrect.

When you said

"the Bears would carry Adams with cap hits of:  $14.5 mil and then $25mil in 2024.   He'd never see the $44mil in 2025 but we'd be free to renegotiate if we wanted, or just cut him "
 

that was 100% correct.

[Stinger226]

Adams had a good year, why  would they get rid of him no matter who the QB is. LV was bad this year,  cheaper to get rid of coach than players. They will make some changes but don't think its Adams leaving. They have 35 mil next year in cap space,  but they will have difficulty going forward, I think they make a few changes and run it back again.

[BearFan PHX]

6 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

Adams had a good year, why  would they get rid of him no matter who the QB is. LV was bad this year,  cheaper to get rid of coach than players. They will make some changes but don't think its Adams leaving. They have 35 mil next year in cap space,  but they will have difficulty going forward, I think they make a few changes and run it back again.

if the cap were no object, they might trade Devante for a top pick if they believe a QB in the draft is the next Tom Brady. That makes good sense.

But when you factor in Devante's contract is only one year old and the cap hit for trading him now, it becomes basically impossible this year. You'd have to gut the whole team even worse than Poles has for us.

In fact, Im not even sure they could cut enough guys to get Devante's trade cap hit under the cap at all. It may even be mathematically impossible, or close to it.

[BearFan PHX]

Ok, in looking at sporttrac details, here are the hard numbers.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/las-vegas-raiders/davante-adams-14463/

If no post-June 1st designation, the Raiders would have to carry $31.4 Million dollars on their cap in dead space for 2023 if they trade him to us. If they do not trade or cut him, he will cost them $14M on their cap. So they'd have to find an additional $17M in cap room just to get rid of him.

If they keep him, then their new QB, whoever he is, has a great target to throw to, and you can spend that $17M on additional players too.

On our side, it's a great deal. He gets $11M the first year, $16M or so the second year, and then you have to cut him, because he jumps up to $35M after that, or you restructure. And he will be old then too.

So while you get a great 2 year rental on an exceptional WR, he leaves just when Justin needs him most.

It's an interesting idea, but I dont think the Raiders can afford it, and I dont think the Bears get enough value (2 years of Devante at half price) in exchange for moving down from pick 1 or 2 to pick 9.

If Devante was 25, this might all look different.

[Mongo3451]

18 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

In fact, Im not even sure they could cut enough guys to get Devante's trade cap hit under the cap at all. It may even be mathematically impossible, or close to it.

When you factor in the hit they are going to take for Carr, adding Adams to that would be huge.

[AZ54]

10 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

Oh and re-reading, the dead cap money doesnt go across five years - that's the whole point Im making. If it goes as a June 1st cut, then it splits in half and kills 2023 and 2024 caps.

Ill lay it out here for everyone who might be confused (not saying you are!)

If you sign a player to a 5 year, $100 Million dollar deal that includes a $50 Million guarantee (aka signing bonus), then the team cuts a check to the player for $60 Million in year one, and $10 Million in years 2 thru 5. For example.

The thing is, no one can afford a $60M cap hit, so the league lets you spread that money across the life of the deal as far as the cap is concerned. So from the caps point of view, its 5 years at $20M each ($10M salary and the $50M signing bonus spread across five years)

BUT if you trade or cut that player, you no longer need to pay the player the salary portion of their deal, and the team that gets the players takes that on, the guaranteed money. But the $50M that they were going to count across five years suddenly becomes due in that year. And the Raiders would have to pay all of it at once.

Now of course they already paid the dollars to the player, but the cap hit would happen all at once, no longer spread out over the 5 years.

From the Bears point of view, it'd be a GREAT deal. Devante would only count half his value against the cap (only the salary) and we could cut him at ANY time with no ill effects (since we arent responsible for any of the guaranteed money on the cap).

It was the same deal for us with Mack. He had a huge contract, and because we traded him, we had to eat all that guaranteed money against our cap all in this year. And keep in mind, this wasnt year two of Macks deal. That's the point. We had to wait, and it still killed our cap this year. Thats why we couldnt get any good free agents this year.

When a player gets a long term deal with big guaranteed money, it makes them impossible to trade or cut for a few years.

I just worked off the OvertheCap values which I linked to.   They could very well be wrong.  I can't paste a screenshot in here but they say Dead Money and Cap Hit Post Jun 1st are just $8mil/season for 5 years.  If it all accelerates to one year then maybe that's an issue for Oakland.  Pre-Jun 1st they show $39mil Dead Money and -$27mil hit to cap space. 

Maybe thats an issue, maybe it's not.  If they care to go down the rebuild path the Bears chose then consider that we are carrying $88mil in dead money this year. 

Once a team goes down the QB rabbit hole that whole playoff/Superbowl horizon changes dramatically.  You are likely best suited to get younger talent and shed your vets.  

The Raiders do have another option if they want to pursue someone like JimmyG and then see if he can take the existing talent further.  However, re-tread QBs don't have the best track record in 2022 so it'll be interesting to watch this play out.  Which scenario buys the GM/HC the most time from the owner to find success?  

[AZ54]

7 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

When you factor in the hit they are going to take for Carr, adding Adams to that would be huge.

Derek Carr's Dead Money in 2023 is just $5.6mil and Cap Savings are $29mil.  They can outright cut him and have plenty of money to sign a mid-tier QB to hold down the fort, Brissett for example who only makes $5mil this year, and have a lot of money left over.  

https://overthecap.com/player/derek-carr/2975

[BearFan PHX]

3 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

Derek Carr's Dead Money in 2023 is just $5.6mil and Cap Savings are $29mil.  They can outright cut him and have plenty of money to sign a mid-tier QB to hold down the fort, Brissett for example who only makes $5mil this year, and have a lot of money left over.  

https://overthecap.com/player/derek-carr/2975

interesting, or they could eat Devante's trade.

I still dont think the Bears would be getting enough without next years #1 from them as well as the 9th pick, and Devante, and probably some 2023 picks too 3rd or 4th round at least

[Stinger226]

3 hours ago, AZ54 said:

I just worked off the OvertheCap values which I linked to.   They could very well be wrong.  I can't paste a screenshot in here but they say Dead Money and Cap Hit Post Jun 1st are just $8mil/season for 5 years.  If it all accelerates to one year then maybe that's an issue for Oakland.  Pre-Jun 1st they show $39mil Dead Money and -$27mil hit to cap space. 

Maybe thats an issue, maybe it's not.  If they care to go down the rebuild path the Bears chose then consider that we are carrying $88mil in dead money this year. 

Once a team goes down the QB rabbit hole that whole playoff/Superbowl horizon changes dramatically.  You are likely best suited to get younger talent and shed your vets.  

The Raiders do have another option if they want to pursue someone like JimmyG and then see if he can take the existing talent further.  However, re-tread QBs don't have the best track record in 2022 so it'll be interesting to watch this play out.  Which scenario buys the GM/HC the most time from the owner to find success?  

Its cheaper to get rid of the coach since that seems to be the problem, they have a lot of talented players on that team. They should have been better.

[adam]

Carr will be an easy trade. Adams will be much more complicated due to his contract. He has these things in his contact that would come due in March:

• 42.92M fully guarantees in March 2023 (2023 salary, 2023 Roster Bonus, 2024 salary)
• 2023 Roster Bonus: $20M (fully guaranteed, treated as signing bonus)

 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

I hope Poles stays away from Adam's. Fields needs more than a top WR.  He needs to see the field and react faster.  Get him a top line and develop him to read and react faster

24 minutes ago, adam said:

Carr will be an easy trade. Adams will be much more complicated due to his contract. He has these things in his contact that would come due in March:

• 42.92M fully guarantees in March 2023 (2023 salary, 2023 Roster Bonus, 2024 salary)
• 2023 Roster Bonus: $20M (fully guaranteed, treated as signing bonus)

 

[Mongo3451]

I highly doubt Poles will go in big for a player unless he sees them here and productive for at least four years.

[AZ54]

7 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

I highly doubt Poles will go in big for a player unless he sees them here and productive for at least four years.

Ryan Poles:  You want me to take who off your hands?  For just a 2nd Rd pick?  Nah, umm, hold for a minute I have another call...

[Mongo3451]

1 hour ago, AZ54 said:

Ryan Poles:  You want me to take who off your hands?  For just a 2nd Rd pick?  Nah, umm, hold for a minute I have another call...

??

[Stinger226]

4 hours ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

I hope Poles stays away from Adam's. Fields needs more than a top WR.  He needs to see the field and react faster.  Get him a top line and develop him to read and react faster

I agree, if he trades its going to be for a younger player, not WRs headed into their30,s. Anyone else see Tyrik Cohen is fully healthy now? Anyone see they bring him in on a minimum deal?