Roster stuff

[BearFan PHX]

4 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

I highly doubt Poles will go in big for a player unless he sees them here and productive for at least four years.

I think this, more than anything else, is the main reason we wont have Adams here. And there are major other reasons like Adams' contract and cap hit to the Raiders.

But if they add in next year's #1, that could work, because we could package it to go get Harrison Jr. And let Harrison learn one year under Adams before we cut Adams for 2025.

Bears give pick #1 or #2

Raiders give Pick #9, Adams, next years #1 and a 3rd or 4th this year

could work. And might be worth it for them to snag their QB.

But my point is the Raiders would need to add a LOT more than just Adams to the #9 pick to make it worth it.

[Mongo3451]

Just saw my guy Quinton Johnston mage a huge play.

[AZ54]

23 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

Just saw my guy Quinton Johnston mage a huge play.

I've been watching him all game.  His QB doesn't often look his way and he's often struggling to get early separation.   Or his QB just doesn't look his way.  For a guy who supposedly is a top 10 or top 15 draft pick this game isn't a convincing argument.   

So far my biggest takeaways from the game are that maybe there are a couple TCU DBs or some Oline players we should be talking about.  

[DABEARSDABOMB]

22 hours ago, AZ54 said:

I've been watching him all game.  His QB doesn't often look his way and he's often struggling to get early separation.   Or his QB just doesn't look his way.  For a guy who supposedly is a top 10 or top 15 draft pick this game isn't a convincing argument.   

So far my biggest takeaways from the game are that maybe there are a couple TCU DBs or some Oline players we should be talking about.  

JSN is who I go with if they go wideout. 

[Stinger226]

1 hour ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

JSN is who I go with if they go wideout. 

Totally agree,  he will end up being the best WR in this draft, the only way we get him is if we trade back a few times.

[adam]

I am hoping for a trade back at this point. Too many holes to fill. Need more darts. 

[Stinger226]

2 hours ago, adam said:

I am hoping for a trade back at this point. Too many holes to fill. Need more darts. 

Hard to say with Carter but would still love to get Anderson. Think of the impact a Parsons type player would have on the defense. I would settle for Wilson and JS-N . I think Poles is smart enough to make the right moves. The only draft pick the jury is still out on is V Jones and that story is not complete yet.

[adam]

7 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

Hard to say with Carter but would still love to get Anderson. Think of the impact a Parsons type player would have on the defense. I would settle for Wilson and JS-N . I think Poles is smart enough to make the right moves. The only draft pick the jury is still out on is V Jones and that story is not complete yet.

I am higher on Anderson than Carter, but to play an entire bowl game without a single stat is somewhat concerning. You want dominant players in the top 3 picks, not guys that disappear from game to game.

Poles did not have a first rounder in 2022, so I give him credit for getting as many starters as he did. I am coming around on Gordon and have always liked Brisker. Velus Jones was his reach. I think he learned his lesson and won't do that again.

[Connorbear]

10 hours ago, adam said:

I am higher on Anderson than Carter, but to play an entire bowl game without a single stat is somewhat concerning. You want dominant players in the top 3 picks, not guys that disappear from game to game.

Poles did not have a first rounder in 2022, so I give him credit for getting as many starters as he did. I am coming around on Gordon and have always liked Brisker. Velus Jones was his reach. I think he learned his lesson and won't do that again.

If Velus ends up just being a really good kick returner, who has maybe 15 to 20 catches a year is that sufficient for a 3rd rounder? I surely don't see that as a bust. 

Peace

[Stinger226]

11 hours ago, adam said:

I am higher on Anderson than Carter, but to play an entire bowl game without a single stat is somewhat concerning. You want dominant players in the top 3 picks, not guys that disappear from game to game.

Poles did not have a first rounder in 2022, so I give him credit for getting as many starters as he did. I am coming around on Gordon and have always liked Brisker. Velus Jones was his reach. I think he learned his lesson and won't do that again.

We can argue about passing on Pickens or Watson but who was available when he took V Jones is the question? 

Jahen Dobson -- David Bell--Danny Grey--Romeo Dobbs

No one has been impactful, Dobbs has 42-425-3. Lots have been better than Jones but that's why you don't judge draft picks on one year. 

V Jones will be a gadget player, 30-35 receptions, kick returner having one big play a game. It will turn out okay but not a great pick.

Next yr Poles will improve the OL and add 1 or 2 playmakers so we can have a more developed passing game. Mooney, Claypool, Kmet and whoever will be enough to start with. 

 

[Mongo3451]

14 hours ago, adam said:

I am higher on Anderson than Carter, but to play an entire bowl game without a single stat is somewhat concerning. You want dominant players in the top 3 picks, not guys that disappear from game to game.

After watching bowl games Anderson is the guy if we stay put.  I saw a play where he split a tackle guard double team and it didn't look like they slowed him down.  Loved the contact explosiveness.  The result of the play was an INT.  If your interior rushers aren't dominant, you need Anderson to help shrewd that OL out to make room.

[AZ54]

7 hours ago, Connorbear said:

If Velus ends up just being a really good kick returner, who has maybe 15 to 20 catches a year is that sufficient for a 3rd rounder? I surely don't see that as a bust. 

Peace

As a KR Velus flips the field at least once and sometimes twice a game.  For a team with an inept offense that often goes 3 and out that's a big help as the ensuing punt puts the other team on a long field.  If we get anything going on offense we need just 30yds of offense for a FG.   I don't think that alone is worth a 3rd Rd pick but if he can just add a little on offense with some big plays here and there it's about right. 

If you look at this PFF analysis comparing 1st and 2nd Rd WRs performance...look at the 3yr survival rate of WRs by draft Rd.   In many ways there is minimal difference between 1st and 2nd Rd WRs.  Since they didn't compare later rounds other than the 3yr survival rate we have to assume the lower survival rate means a significant dropoff in production.  It's only worse after that. 

Based on that article the sweet spot for WR value is the 2nd Rd.     With that said, looking at the WRs taken after Velus in the 3rd Rd we have: 

Jalen Tolbert w/  12yds receiving total, 53 special teams snaps

David Bell w/ 214yds receiving total,   116 special teams snaps

Danny Gray w/ 10yds receiving total.  15 special teams snaps

Velus is sitting in 2nd place with 61yds rcv. 111 specials teams snaps 

Velus is 11th in the NFL in KR yards with 525.   The others have none.   Before he got benched Velus had 35 PR yards, the others have none.  

4th Rd WRs: 

Ezukama. no stat line,   

Dobbs 425yds receiving, 3 special teams snaps

Calvin Austin  no stat line

5th Rd WRs:  

Shakir. 133yds receiving,  18 special teams snaps

Montrell Washington,  271yds receiving,  271 special teams snaps but his KR long is 29yds (Velus is 63yds and averages 29yd/return)

Kyle Phillips,  78yds receiving,  7 special teams snaps

I'm not taking the time to go further down the draft.  This was a "value" exercise for me to see if Poles grabbed the right WR.  Dobbs might have been the better WR but offers nothing on special teams.  Velus has been disappointing as a WR but excelled as KR when he holds onto the ball. 

Year 2 will be telling but based on the other WRs drafted after him Velus fits in simply because of his versatility.  The question remains were there players at other positions that offered greater value when he was chosen?    

 

[AZ54]

Forgot to add I found a new stats website I liked so thought I'd share it.  

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/player-stats/

[Stinger226]

23 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

Forgot to add I found a new stats website I liked so thought I'd share it.  

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/player-stats/

That's cool . This year I discovered Swifty on YouTube and Bears on Heavy.com and watch  Hoge and Johans  CHGO, No name Football podcasts II name a few .

[Connorbear]

14 hours ago, AZ54 said:

As a KR Velus flips the field at least once and sometimes twice a game.  For a team with an inept offense that often goes 3 and out that's a big help as the ensuing punt puts the other team on a long field.  If we get anything going on offense we need just 30yds of offense for a FG.   I don't think that alone is worth a 3rd Rd pick but if he can just add a little on offense with some big plays here and there it's about right. 

If you look at this PFF analysis comparing 1st and 2nd Rd WRs performance...look at the 3yr survival rate of WRs by draft Rd.   In many ways there is minimal difference between 1st and 2nd Rd WRs.  Since they didn't compare later rounds other than the 3yr survival rate we have to assume the lower survival rate means a significant dropoff in production.  It's only worse after that. 

Based on that article the sweet spot for WR value is the 2nd Rd.     With that said, looking at the WRs taken after Velus in the 3rd Rd we have: 

Jalen Tolbert w/  12yds receiving total, 53 special teams snaps

David Bell w/ 214yds receiving total,   116 special teams snaps

Danny Gray w/ 10yds receiving total.  15 special teams snaps

Velus is sitting in 2nd place with 61yds rcv. 111 specials teams snaps 

Velus is 11th in the NFL in KR yards with 525.   The others have none.   Before he got benched Velus had 35 PR yards, the others have none.  

4th Rd WRs: 

Ezukama. no stat line,   

Dobbs 425yds receiving, 3 special teams snaps

Calvin Austin  no stat line

5th Rd WRs:  

Shakir. 133yds receiving,  18 special teams snaps

Montrell Washington,  271yds receiving,  271 special teams snaps but his KR long is 29yds (Velus is 63yds and averages 29yd/return)

Kyle Phillips,  78yds receiving,  7 special teams snaps

I'm not taking the time to go further down the draft.  This was a "value" exercise for me to see if Poles grabbed the right WR.  Dobbs might have been the better WR but offers nothing on special teams.  Velus has been disappointing as a WR but excelled as KR when he holds onto the ball. 

Year 2 will be telling but based on the other WRs drafted after him Velus fits in simply because of his versatility.  The question remains were there players at other positions that offered greater value when he was chosen?    

 

Great info - thanks!  I believe if he can add just a bit on offense for us he will be a positive asset moving forward. 

Peace

[adam]

22 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

We can argue about passing on Pickens or Watson but who was available when he took V Jones is the question? 

Jahen Dobson -- David Bell--Danny Grey--Romeo Dobbs

No one has been impactful, Dobbs has 42-425-3. Lots have been better than Jones but that's why you don't judge draft picks on one year. 

V Jones will be a gadget player, 30-35 receptions, kick returner having one big play a game. It will turn out okay but not a great pick.

Next yr Poles will improve the OL and add 1 or 2 playmakers so we can have a more developed passing game. Mooney, Claypool, Kmet and whoever will be enough to start with. 

 

My thought process on the draft picks was Brisker should've been picked at 39 as BPA, then at 48 you take Pickens or Pierce, then at 71 you go Abraham Lucas or Bernhard Raimann for OL.

[Stinger226]

4 hours ago, adam said:

My thought process on the draft picks was Brisker should've been picked at 39 as BPA, then at 48 you take Pickens or Pierce, then at 71 you go Abraham Lucas or Bernhard Raimann for OL.

Its always different when you look backwards, the GM didn't have that advantage.

[AZ54]

4 hours ago, adam said:

My thought process on the draft picks was Brisker should've been picked at 39 as BPA, then at 48 you take Pickens or Pierce, then at 71 you go Abraham Lucas or Bernhard Raimann for OL.

Alec Pierce I'd have been good with.  Pickens has already had one public blowup on the sidelines and I simply don't care about his talent level he's not someone I want on a rebuilding team.  FWIW Abraham Lucas has a lower overall PFF grade than Larry Borom.  

[AZ54]

1 minute ago, Stinger226 said:

Its always different when you look backwards, the GM didn't have that advantage.

Gordon is the better athlete playing a more difficult position. 

Gordon leads with 3 INTs, Brisker 1.     

Brisker leads in solo tackles 68 to 55 over Gordon. 

Brisker leads 4 sacks, Gordon 0.  ( I couldn't guess say who is used more to blitz)

Forced fumbles and fumble recoveries are tied at 1, fumble recoveries tied at 1.      

Both miss tackles too often.  Brisker just completely whiffed on a TD run in Detroit, didn't even get a hand on the RB and he ran right past him.  

[Mongo3451]

5 hours ago, adam said:

My thought process on the draft picks was Brisker should've been picked at 39 as BPA, then at 48 you take Pickens or Pierce, then at 71 you go Abraham Lucas or Bernhard Raimann for OL.

Pickens was a first round talent grade with red flags.  I'm not a fan of rating a GM or coach this early.  It's not fair.  Drafts and coaches deserve 2 years before the scrutiny starts.

[Stinger226]

10 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

Pickens was a first round talent grade with red flags.  I'm not a fan of rating a GM or coach this early.  It's not fair.  Drafts and coaches deserve 2 years before the scrutiny starts.

I agree, easy to have opinions but 2 yrs from now if Brisket and Gordon are pro bowlers, no one should complain. I think having a new regime and we would have had a player whining being selfish, it wouldn't have ended well here. With our underdeveloped passing game, no one would have stood out this year. Claypool hasn't impressed but anyone notice Kmet and Mooney started to get targets because of the attention they had to play attention to Chase. Next year, all of this will ,be forgotten as we have a balanced offense.

[Mongo3451]

20 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

Next year, all of this will ,be forgotten as we have a balanced offense.

Agreed on all except the above.  The OL, WR's and Justin will ALL need to make an above average jump to be considered balanced.  I don't think we have the WR's to make it happen.  The OL is fixable.

[BearFan PHX]

3 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

Agreed on all except the above.  The OL, WR's and Justin will ALL need to make an above average jump to be considered balanced.  I don't think we have the WR's to make it happen.  The OL is fixable.

I agree. I think we upgrade the OL, but probably dont have anyone better than Claypool as our #1 next year. With Claypool, Mooney and one other, defenses wont be able to double them all, so hopefully we are adequate.

If Poles finds a trade for a stud WR, I will be truly impressed. But if he doesn't, that will be job #1 for 2024 on a team that is already gelling.

[Stinger226]

I think Poles sees what we see, so it will get a WR, but odds of being a #1 will be slim. I tink he attacks free agency with 2 OL upgrades, Pocic and Kalib McGary. I don't think he waits for a bunch of young guys to develop. 

B Jones--Whitehair--Pocic-- Jenkins-- McGary. I think he will upgrade the depth by keeping Patrick and a draftee to replace Borom. 

[BearFan PHX]

I think that with a basically wide open cap, with very few exceptions, the players we have are just more free agent options to Poles. If there is someone out there that isnt a top price guy, but Poles thinks is better than Jones, then he could take him instead.

I think wholesale change is possible at almost every position, especially on the OL and DL. Anything is possible.

Trying to see what we have and build off of it isnt really the right way to look at this.

Sure, we see the same high priced big names, but in filling out around them, it could be a guy we have on the roster, or it could be someone else. Anywhere.

A - In football the best thing you can have is great players signed to long term deals.
B - The next best thing is to have no one signed, and lots cap room and picks.
C - The worst thing is to have not great players signed to long terms deals.

Most teams are stuck between B and C. We are firmly at B.

We've been living at C trying to reorganize the pieces we have and bring in a few new guys. We really are at B right now, so we dont have to even think like that.

For example, is Whitehair good? Sure. He's OK. You might think he is a piece to build around. You think "well hes Ok, and we already have him, so we will spend our money elsewhere." But Whitehair's 2023 cap number is $14 Million. 8 of that is dead money. Is there another player ont he Ol who is comparable or better that we can get for $6M? What about $9M? Better than $14M going forward?

So what looked like a piece you could keep is possibly replaceable with a non big name.

Or look at Jones. Hes making Rookie 5th round money. A great deal, but is there someone at $7M a year who might be better? We all know Orlando Jones is out there. A big name. Say you get him, and think "we will move Jones to RT" but is there a non big name for $6M who would play better at RT?

This is why Im saying be cautious of assuming ANYONE on this roster is safe. They are just low level Free Agent options just like the ones that arent on our roster but are on Poles' list.

No one is safe. (Fields, Brisker & Gordon aside)