Roster stuff

[BearFan PHX]

Let me put this another way:

There are the only four players currently on our roster who cost more to cut than to keep.

Everyone else on the roster you GAIN cap room if you cut or trade them. In other words, everyone on the roster's dead cap money that you eat if you cut or trade them is less than their 2023 cap figure.

These are the only exceptions:

Justin Fields, Kyler Gordon, Alex Leatherwood, Jaquan Brisker

you can cut any other player on the team and gain net cap space.

Even in the case of Eddie Jackson, he counts $17M against the cap in 2023, but only costs $9.5M in dead money to cut him. That means if you cut him, you GAIN $7.5M in cap room to find a replacement. If Jackson was a free agent, and you had $7.5M to sign a safety, and Jackson was asking for $7.5M a year would you be sure you would sign him and not someone else who is available at that price? Because that is the real question Poles is asking himself.

Gordon, Leatherwood and Brisker are all on super low deals anyway, so if you wanted to cut them, you could do it easily with no cap pain. (we aren't cutting Gordon or Brisker but we could easily afford the right trade if it came along)

Fields is literally the only one who you NEED to keep. The rest is Poles' playground.

SO identifying who you want to keep on our roster isnt just about whether they played well, its about who else is out there, because we could afford to replace everyone on this team with someone else at the same price (except Fields). Not saying we should, but each of those decisions depends on the list of players available league wide - not just how well they did for us this year.

We will never be in this position again. 2023 going into 2024 we will be thinking which pieces you build on. But right now, it's a unique year, and we dont need to think that way at all.

Right now, we are an expansion team heading into year 1, except we have Fields, and right of first refusal on our current players.

When the Jaguars came into the modern salary cap era as an expansion team, they went to the AFC Championship game the next year. i think they got an extra first round pick.

Let's say we are there, and already used the bonus first pick on Fields and he got two years of experience arleady. OK one, but you know what I mean LOL We still have the #2 pick too.

[Stinger226]

28 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

Let me put this another way:

There are the only four players currently on our roster who cost more to cut than to keep.

Everyone else on the roster you GAIN cap room if you cut or trade them. In other words, everyone on the roster's dead cap money that you eat if you cut or trade them is less than their 2023 cap figure.

These are the only exceptions:

Justin Fields, Kyler Gordon, Alex Leatherwood, Jaquan Brisker

you can cut any other player on the team and gain net cap space.

Even in the case of Eddie Jackson, he counts $17M against the cap in 2023, but only costs $9.5M in dead money to cut him. That means if you cut him, you GAIN $7.5M in cap room to find a replacement. If Jackson was a free agent, and you had $7.5M to sign a safety, and Jackson was asking for $7.5M a year would you be sure you would sign him and not someone else who is available at that price? Because that is the real question Poles is asking himself.

Gordon, Leatherwood and Brisker are all on super low deals anyway, so if you wanted to cut them, you could do it easily with no cap pain. (we aren't cutting Gordon or Brisker but we could easily afford the right trade if it came along)

Fields is literally the only one who you NEED to keep. The rest is Poles' playground.

SO identifying who you want to keep on our roster isnt just about whether they played well, its about who else is out there, because we could afford to replace everyone on this team with someone else at the same price (except Fields). Not saying we should, but each of those decisions depends on the list of players available league wide - not just how well they did for us this year.

We will never be in this position again. 2023 going into 2024 we will be thinking which pieces you build on. But right now, it's a unique year, and we dont need to think that way at all.

Right now, we are an expansion team heading into year 1, except we have Fields, and right of first refusal on our current players.

When the Jaguars came into the modern salary cap era as an expansion team, they went to the AFC Championship game the next year. i think they got an extra first round pick.

Let's say we are there, and already used the bonus first pick on Fields and he got two years of experience arleady. OK one, but you know what I mean LOL We still have the #2 pick too.

I understand where you're coming from, but Poles started his rebuild this year. I think he will go longer with B Jones because that is his signature piece. He said he knows OL building and what is a better way than to have a 5th rounder become your long term LT. Anyone he has brought in will get the next preseason to prove themselves, Leatherwood and Claypool, even Harry may be brought back. 

He can upgrade every position but he's not going to start a rebuild because everything didn't prove itself from day one.

I think he brings in a couple vets to play OL because he doesn't have time to wait on all young guys to develop. Jenkins will be in his 3rd year and Jones his second, he's not going to draft 2 high picks to start in the OL. He's needs stability tis year. He may draft one guy to compete at RT but he still has Kramer and Patrick in the mix at OC. I think he brings in a FA OC because Patrick can play any IOL spot for depth. If he gets the chance to replace Whitehair, he may but I think J Carter was what he was thinking when he drafted him. 

[BearFan PHX]

2 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

I understand where you're coming from, but Poles started his rebuild this year. I think he will go longer with B Jones because that is his signature piece. He said he knows OL building and what is a better way than to have a 5th rounder become your long term LT. Anyone he has brought in will get the next preseason to prove themselves, Leatherwood and Claypool, even Harry may be brought back. 

He can upgrade every position but he's not going to start a rebuild because everything didn't prove itself from day one.

I think he brings in a couple vets to play OL because he doesn't have time to wait on all young guys to develop. Jenkins will be in his 3rd year and Jones his second, he's not going to draft 2 high picks to start in the OL. He's needs stability tis year. He may draft one guy to compete at RT but he still has Kramer and Patrick in the mix at OC. I think he brings in a FA OC because Patrick can play any IOL spot for depth. If he gets the chance to replace Whitehair, he may but I think J Carter was what he was thinking when he drafted him. 

he took Jones because he knew he had no OLT, and no money to get one. 5th round picks are not foundational pieces when you pick them. You may hope they will become something, and perhaps Poles likes what hes seen of Jones and will keep him on the OL, but it wont be because he is cheap on his rookie deal - itll be because 3 years from now he wants to ride with this guy in particular. He has a long list of players available to choose from and Jones is simply part of that list. He has no extra inside track, because we dont need to think like that this year.

[lemonej]

3 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

Let me put this another way:

There are the only four players currently on our roster who cost more to cut than to keep.

Everyone else on the roster you GAIN cap room if you cut or trade them. In other words, everyone on the roster's dead cap money that you eat if you cut or trade them is less than their 2023 cap figure.

These are the only exceptions:

Justin Fields, Kyler Gordon, Alex Leatherwood, Jaquan Brisker

you can cut any other player on the team and gain net cap space.

Even in the case of Eddie Jackson, he counts $17M against the cap in 2023, but only costs $9.5M in dead money to cut him. That means if you cut him, you GAIN $7.5M in cap room to find a replacement. If Jackson was a free agent, and you had $7.5M to sign a safety, and Jackson was asking for $7.5M a year would you be sure you would sign him and not someone else who is available at that price? Because that is the real question Poles is asking himself.

Gordon, Leatherwood and Brisker are all on super low deals anyway, so if you wanted to cut them, you could do it easily with no cap pain. (we aren't cutting Gordon or Brisker but we could easily afford the right trade if it came along)

Fields is literally the only one who you NEED to keep. The rest is Poles' playground.

SO identifying who you want to keep on our roster isnt just about whether they played well, its about who else is out there, because we could afford to replace everyone on this team with someone else at the same price (except Fields). Not saying we should, but each of those decisions depends on the list of players available league wide - not just how well they did for us this year.

We will never be in this position again. 2023 going into 2024 we will be thinking which pieces you build on. But right now, it's a unique year, and we dont need to think that way at all.

Right now, we are an expansion team heading into year 1, except we have Fields, and right of first refusal on our current players.

When the Jaguars came into the modern salary cap era as an expansion team, they went to the AFC Championship game the next year. i think they got an extra first round pick.

Let's say we are there, and already used the bonus first pick on Fields and he got two years of experience arleady. OK one, but you know what I mean LOL We still have the #2 pick too.

We were in this position in 2017. To say we won't be in this position again is unrealistic. In 2017 we had the 3rd pick and traded up for Trubisky.

[Stinger226]

2 hours ago, lemonej said:

We were in this position in 2017. To say we won't be in this position again is unrealistic. In 2017 we had the 3rd pick and traded up for Trubisky.

Not sure of your opinion on Fields but that's not going to happen again while he's here.

[BearFan PHX]

7 hours ago, lemonej said:

We were in this position in 2017. To say we won't be in this position again is unrealistic. In 2017 we had the 3rd pick and traded up for Trubisky.

yes, but we had players on deals we couldnt cut or trade too.

Im saying right now, Fields aside, we are an expansion team. thats unique.

[Stinger226]

Didn't know where to put this but the Bears resigned ESB for next year , he was on a one year deal.

[BearFan PHX]

6 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

Didn't know where to put this but the Bears resigned ESB for next year , he was on a one year deal.

yup, it's a decent move, and it wasnt a four year deal, so that still isn't a Poles core move. It's just incremental stuff.

I cant wait for Free Agency to begin. tampering period starts March 13th.

[Stinger226]

2 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

yup, it's a decent move, and it wasnt a four year deal, so that still isn't a Poles core move. It's just incremental stuff.

I cant wait for Free Agency to begin. tampering period starts March 13th.

Coming off historically one of our worst seasons, could be our best off season since I became a bears fan.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

On 1/3/2023 at 7:02 PM, BearFan PHX said:

I agree. I think we upgrade the OL, but probably dont have anyone better than Claypool as our #1 next year. With Claypool, Mooney and one other, defenses wont be able to double them all, so hopefully we are adequate.

If Poles finds a trade for a stud WR, I will be truly impressed. But if he doesn't, that will be job #1 for 2024 on a team that is already gelling.

I think when they trade down we see them take one of the wideouts early. 

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

I think when they trade down we see them take one of the wideouts early. 

we definitely need a #1 WR, but we need Defensive Line too (and linebackers and offensive Line). You gotta figure Eberflus is chomping at the bit as a defensive coach. Hes gonna get some dogs on the DL and the OL too, just dont know what order they will come in, and whether itll be through free agency or the draft or trade.

I guess it all comes down to the grades they have on WRs vs D line outside of the top two guys

[BearFan PHX]

2 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

Coming off historically one of our worst seasons, could be our best off season since I became a bears fan.

yup, we bought this coming offseason with the horrible year we just had. Now I hope we get what we paid for.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

On 1/2/2023 at 11:39 PM, AZ54 said:

As a KR Velus flips the field at least once and sometimes twice a game.  For a team with an inept offense that often goes 3 and out that's a big help as the ensuing punt puts the other team on a long field.  If we get anything going on offense we need just 30yds of offense for a FG.   I don't think that alone is worth a 3rd Rd pick but if he can just add a little on offense with some big plays here and there it's about right. 

If you look at this PFF analysis comparing 1st and 2nd Rd WRs performance...look at the 3yr survival rate of WRs by draft Rd.   In many ways there is minimal difference between 1st and 2nd Rd WRs.  Since they didn't compare later rounds other than the 3yr survival rate we have to assume the lower survival rate means a significant dropoff in production.  It's only worse after that. 

Based on that article the sweet spot for WR value is the 2nd Rd.     With that said, looking at the WRs taken after Velus in the 3rd Rd we have: 

Jalen Tolbert w/  12yds receiving total, 53 special teams snaps

David Bell w/ 214yds receiving total,   116 special teams snaps

Danny Gray w/ 10yds receiving total.  15 special teams snaps

Velus is sitting in 2nd place with 61yds rcv. 111 specials teams snaps 

Velus is 11th in the NFL in KR yards with 525.   The others have none.   Before he got benched Velus had 35 PR yards, the others have none.  

4th Rd WRs: 

Ezukama. no stat line,   

Dobbs 425yds receiving, 3 special teams snaps

Calvin Austin  no stat line

5th Rd WRs:  

Shakir. 133yds receiving,  18 special teams snaps

Montrell Washington,  271yds receiving,  271 special teams snaps but his KR long is 29yds (Velus is 63yds and averages 29yd/return)

Kyle Phillips,  78yds receiving,  7 special teams snaps

I'm not taking the time to go further down the draft.  This was a "value" exercise for me to see if Poles grabbed the right WR.  Dobbs might have been the better WR but offers nothing on special teams.  Velus has been disappointing as a WR but excelled as KR when he holds onto the ball. 

Year 2 will be telling but based on the other WRs drafted after him Velus fits in simply because of his versatility.  The question remains were there players at other positions that offered greater value when he was chosen?    

 

Velus breaks 100 yards receiving for the year and adds a 42 yd touchdown run on a sweep.   He had a slow start but as the team and himself gained confidence in each other he showed what he is capable of doing.   I believe he takes that next step in 2023.  

[AZ54]

14 minutes ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

Velus breaks 100 yards receiving for the year and adds a 42 yd touchdown run on a sweep.   He had a slow start but as the team and himself gained confidence in each other he showed what he is capable of doing.   I believe he takes that next step in 2023.  

The run was impressive but I was even more impressed by his back shoulder catch where he adjusted to the ball very well.  Not that it was anything special by NFL standards I just didn't think he had that ability.   When you have a WR with his deep speed and DBs wanting to stay over the top that opens the door for more short receptions.  Again he just has to be a viable receiving threat, which Cordarrelle Patterson never was, and he becomes a headache for defenses. 

[adam]

Not crazy volume, but Velus has been productive when given the chance of late. These are his stats from the BUF and MIN games:

Rushing 1-42-1
Receiving 3-80-0
KR 8-195, 24.4 Avg

4 touches on offense, 122 yards, 1 TD, with 3 of those touches explosive plays. 

8 KRs, almost 200 yds. Over 300 all-purpose yards in 2 games. 

 

[BearFan PHX]

I was ready to give up on Velus because his hands were SO shaky, and he didnt show much else than raw speed to justify his being here.

Now, over the last few weeks, Ive seen him grow, and take better care of the ball.

You cant teach speed, so he will be in camp next year with whomever we fill the WR room with. Ill be rooting for him to grow up and use that speed to win.

[Stinger226]

4 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

I was ready to give up on Velus because his hands were SO shaky, and he didnt show much else than raw speed to justify his being here.

Now, over the last few weeks, Ive seen him grow, and take better care of the ball.

You cant teach speed, so he will be in camp next year with whomever we fill the WR room with. Ill be rooting for him to grow up and use that speed to win.

Velus will have a fit next year. He'll never be a target leader but will have 1 or 2 big plays a game. He will force DCs to pay attention to him. He'll prove to be a playmaker. Most draft picks don't shine their first year in the league.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

20 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

Velus will have a fit next year. He'll never be a target leader but will have 1 or 2 big plays a game. He will force DCs to pay attention to him. He'll prove to be a playmaker. Most draft picks don't shine their first year in the league.

I loved hearing stories about Hester and how he spent so much time in training camp just catching punts.  They threw every type of kick at him because every punter in the league had different techniques. I hope Flus had V12 doing that in TC.  I would like to see him step up to WR3 next year.  Be our Deebo Samuel with sweeps and screens.

[Stinger226]

Poles have already started the 2023 roster by signing ESB for next year. 

Also signed 9  future contract players.

Dauice Fountain/WR

Donovan Jeter/DL

Chase Allen/TE

Asian Colbert/CB

Kuony Deng/LB

Kellen Diesch/OL

Geri Green/DL

Jack Tonges/TE

Nsimba Webster/WR

 

 

[BearFan PHX]

true, but all of those players could be cut in camp and not cost us any cap room.

His real roster is anyone he gives a significant four year deal to. So far, I think that's just Fields, and even he could be cut without too much cap disturbance (we arent gonna cut him).

Any Free Agents he picks up on 1 or 2 year low end deals are still just placeholders and competition makers. When he signs a Free Agent to a four year $20M+ deal, THATS his roster. Those are the guys we should judge his performance on.

[Stinger226]

7 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

true, but all of those players could be cut in camp and not cost us any cap room.

His real roster is anyone he gives a significant four year deal to. So far, I think that's just Fields, and even he could be cut without too much cap disturbance (we arent gonna cut him).

Any Free Agents he picks up on 1 or 2 year low end deals are still just placeholders and competition makers. When he signs a Free Agent to a four year $20M+ deal, THATS his roster. Those are the guys we should judge his performance on.

Of course, my point is the season ended 5 minutes ago and he's working.

[BearFan PHX]

4 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

Of course, my point is the season ended 5 minutes ago and he's working.

oh yeah, I totally agree with you there! hes been working all season bringing in people to look at. hes done everything right so far. now he needs to hit home runs on talent evaluation.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

16 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

Any Free Agents he picks up on 1 or 2 year low end deals are still just placeholders and competition makers. When he signs a Free Agent to a four year $20M+ deal, THATS his roster. Those are the guys we should judge his performance on.

Out of curiosity, wonder how ESB got a contract so quick?  I assume it was for another 1 year deal?  Was going to compare him to N'Keal Harry and forgot that Harry was a mid-season trade (For a 7th pick) and I believe at the end of his rookie contract(?) so needs a different prism to view his potential future contributions.  But dang I hope they keep Harry.  

[Stinger226]

Flus is big on TOs and Jackson was playing at a pro bowl level. I think he's here one more year.  Whitehair may be the gone, if he can get a replacement of equal talent. If post June cut he only cost 4.7 mil. He may find a vet for 10 mil , the savings if cut. 

We have a lot of holes to fill not sure he wants to create more holes, we need to be more competitive with 2 yrs left on Justin's contract. 

Bengals added 3 new starters this yr and there were still bad but are starting to play better now. It just takes some time even with upgrades. 

Just seen B Jones, Gordon, and Brisker made the all rookie team.

[AZ54]

1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:

Flus is big on TOs and Jackson was playing at a pro bowl level. I think he's here one more year.  Whitehair may be the gone, if he can get a replacement of equal talent. If post June cut he only cost 4.7 mil. He may find a vet for 10 mil , the savings if cut. 

We have a lot of holes to fill not sure he wants to create more holes, we need to be more competitive with 2 yrs left on Justin's contract. 

Bengals added 3 new starters this yr and there were still bad but are starting to play better now. It just takes some time even with upgrades. 

Just seen B Jones, Gordon, and Brisker made the all rookie team.

That's pretty good and without a 1st Rd pick.