2-15 Chicago Bears

[adam]

2-15 is a real possibility. Underdogs in every remaining game. 

Then what? Would that change your outlook on Poles, Flus, Getsy, Fields?

For me it would. I know they are not all equal, but man, 2 wins and what could be 14 straight losses to end the season? I doubt that happens, they will probably luck into a win or two and go 3-14 or 4-13, but 5 wins is really a success now, which is disappointing given the start. 

The craziest part is this team is literally 3-4 plays away from 5-1. Then if you go the other way, they could also easily be 0-6. 

So I have mixed feelings. I just have a feeling (after 6 games) that Poles is not it. Velus pick was bad and looks worse now. Gordon has shown nothing in 6 games while WRs are flashing (Pierce, Pickens). Jones is great for a 5th rounder, but he should not be your starter. What free agent is doing anything, Morrow? Jones? Maybe. Muhammad has been subpar. The top guys on defense are from Pace: Smith, Johnson, Jackson, and Gipson. The top guys on offense: Fields, Herbert, Monty, and Whitehair are from Pace. 

To put this season in perspective, the two worst seasons in franchise history were a 1-13 1969 (yeah baby), and a 3-13 2016. 

A 3-14 season becomes the 2nd worst in franchise history. 4-13 slightly edges 2016 and would be the 3rd worst.

So unless there is a miracle turnaround, this season is projected to be either the 2nd or 3rd worst ever. 

[BearFan PHX]

These guys inherited a house on fire. They just put out the fire. They haven't had any chance to do any interior decorating yet. You come to the house and say "before it was burning, now it is un-liveable - both are unacceptable." Yes. But these guys didn't start the fire. We fired those guys. These guys agreed to go through this year to get to where they were running things next year. They haven't had the time or resources to do anything long term to fix this. Making shorter term moves to make this year work at the expense of the future is exactly why our house was on fire. This is discipline.

We can't judge them on this at all. This isn't year one. This is year zero.

Next year i will not be so forgiving. Then the product will be fair to begin to judge.

 

[adam]

30 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

These guys inherited a house on fire. They just put out the fire. They haven't had any chance to do any interior decorating yet. You come to the house and say "before it was burning, now it is un-liveable - both are unacceptable." Yes. But these guys didn't start the fire. We fired those guys. These guys agreed to go through this year to get to where they were running things next year. They haven't had the time or resources to do anything long term to fix this. Making shorter term moves to make this year work at the expense of the future is exactly why our house was on fire. This is discipline.

We can't judge them on this at all. This isn't year one. This is year zero.

Next year i will not be so forgiving. Then the product will be fair to begin to judge.

 

Fair enough, I will give them this year as a freebie, but man, this feels eerily similar to the Emery/Trestman era. 

[Mongo3451]

52 minutes ago, adam said:

Fair enough, I will give them this year as a freebie, but man, this feels eerily similar to the Emery/Trestman era. 

Poles, Flus and Fields will all be back next year.  Keep building the blue chippers next year.  If Fields is not the guy after 2023, then the table will be set for the new guy.  We needed this year of pain last year, but George wasn't ready for some reason.  Remember, this was foreseen by many people and not a result of the current regime.

[BearFan PHX]

37 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

Poles, Flus and Fields will all be back next year.  Keep building the blue chippers next year.  If Fields is not the guy after 2023, then the table will be set for the new guy.  We needed this year of pain last year, but George wasn't ready for some reason.  Remember, this was foreseen by many people and not a result of the current regime.

I agree, George postponed this. I was yelling about it on here back then. But a lot of people were. I didnt have a crystal ball, it was obvious, everyone could see it.

I guess that the cap hit one year earlier on Mack was too much to swallow, and that probably played into it, like you kind had to wait until this year to eat $60 Million, because $90 Million is too much to swallow. keep in mind we are paying two QBs that arent on the team in addition to Mack (Foles & Dalton).

It's evidence of how deeply Pace & Nagy screwed us. Well, George and Teddy, but yeah.
 

 

1 hour ago, adam said:

Fair enough, I will give them this year as a freebie, but man, this feels eerily similar to the Emery/Trestman era. 

Yeah, they get this year. But they don't get too much next year. I know we will have a ton of new players and it might start rocky, but if it looks like this in October next year, I say just nuke the entire city of Chicago from orbit and start over as an expansion team LOL.

 

 

[AZ54]

7 hours ago, adam said:

Fair enough, I will give them this year as a freebie, but man, this feels eerily similar to the Emery/Trestman era. 

Already it's obvious the culture isn't even close to the disaster those two built.  One example, Trestman refused to discipline our TE (Martellus Bennett?) for his fights and other laziness during practices.  Do you see that same tolerance from Flus with Teven Jenkins?   He has a bad practice on a Wed (not a fight) and Patrick gets the start.    Example 2:  Eddie Jackson.  

Poles was handicapped with limited budget in FA and overweight contracts on vets.  He managed to turn much of that around in one offseason.  That made things tight in 2022 but gave him a lot more leverage in 2023.   There's no denying his draft was solid.  Brisker is already playing like a solid starter. 

Gordon has struggled but after re-watching the last game it's obvious he's improving.  He's already been making several negative plays and had others where he kept Washington to short gains.  His play recognition will only get better in the 2nd half of the season.  

 

[BearFan PHX]

2 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

Already it's obvious the culture isn't even close to the disaster those two built.  One example, Trestman refused to discipline our TE (Martellus Bennett?) for his fights and other laziness during practices.  Do you see that same tolerance from Flus with Teven Jenkins?   He has a bad practice on a Wed (not a fight) and Patrick gets the start.    Example 2:  Eddie Jackson.  

Poles was handicapped with limited budget in FA and overweight contracts on vets.  He managed to turn much of that around in one offseason.  That made things tight in 2022 but gave him a lot more leverage in 2023.   There's no denying his draft was solid.  Brisker is already playing like a solid starter. 

Gordon has struggled but after re-watching the last game it's obvious he's improving.  He's already been making several negative plays and had others where he kept Washington to short gains.  His play recognition will only get better in the 2nd half of the season.  

 

AZ, I am seeing all of this the same way you are.

[adam]

One overarching concern is, can you actually fix the offense with a defensive head coach (nowadays)?

Every game it seems to show that most of the capital was put into the defense (top 2 picks), top 4 of 5 cap hits on defense, etc, etc. Fields is the top paid offensive player, and he is on his rookie deal. Santos, a kicker, makes more than any other offensive player. Montgomery is next, on his rookie deal. Then the next offensive player is Riley Reiff who has barely played, if at all yet. You need someone, anyone, on offense. Every player is replaceable on offense. 

I understand Poles was in a tough spot with little cap or draft picks, but it just seems like he could've put a little more emphasis on offense to help Fields out. Since that was what this season was all about, his development. So it is easy to be critical because Poles basically did nothing to address the O-Line or WR Corps. 

I am still skeptical this is going to work as we have been thru this before many times. There were red flags with basically every hire since Lovie and Angelo. Pace got 2 HCs, but even with him, he kept trading up and wasting picks (Trubisky, Miller, etc). Emery was just terrible from the beginning. Trestman started out 3-0, then lost 3 of the next 4 and never played over .500 ball again. Fox started 2-3, then to 4-5, then won only 9 of his next 39 games. For some reason, he got a 3rd year. Every since the double doink, Nagy played sub .500 ball. It just feels very similar, we always have high hopes, but things are pointed out early, and unfortunately, a lot of them are playing out right now. 

One theory is that Poles/Flus/Getsy are not in on Fields, and they will go firesale at the deadline (Monty, Quinn, Smith Jackson, and Whitehair). Then they will move on from Fields this offseason, which would be bold, but they did move Mack, which was pretty bold at the time.

[Mongo3451]

4 hours ago, adam said:

One overarching concern is, can you actually fix the offense with a defensive head coach (nowadays)?

Every game it seems to show that most of the capital was put into the defense (top 2 picks), top 4 of 5 cap hits on defense, etc, etc. Fields is the top paid offensive player, and he is on his rookie deal. Santos, a kicker, makes more than any other offensive player. Montgomery is next, on his rookie deal. Then the next offensive player is Riley Reiff who has barely played, if at all yet. You need someone, anyone, on offense. Every player is replaceable on offense. 

I understand Poles was in a tough spot with little cap or draft picks, but it just seems like he could've put a little more emphasis on offense to help Fields out. Since that was what this season was all about, his development. So it is easy to be critical because Poles basically did nothing to address the O-Line or WR Corps. 

I am still skeptical this is going to work as we have been thru this before many times. There were red flags with basically every hire since Lovie and Angelo. Pace got 2 HCs, but even with him, he kept trading up and wasting picks (Trubisky, Miller, etc). Emery was just terrible from the beginning. Trestman started out 3-0, then lost 3 of the next 4 and never played over .500 ball again. Fox started 2-3, then to 4-5, then won only 9 of his next 39 games. For some reason, he got a 3rd year. Every since the double doink, Nagy played sub .500 ball. It just feels very similar, we always have high hopes, but things are pointed out early, and unfortunately, a lot of them are playing out right now. 

One theory is that Poles/Flus/Getsy are not in on Fields, and they will go firesale at the deadline (Monty, Quinn, Smith Jackson, and Whitehair). Then they will move on from Fields this offseason, which would be bold, but they did move Mack, which was pretty bold at the time.

My true belief is that they are giving him next year.  The only time you need to make the big decision is when you have to pay him.  It makes no sense moving on so quickly when you know he can be Lamar Jackson with a good OL.  My belief is that they are purposefully determining what his niche is going to be, in order to build accordingly.

[AZ54]

10 hours ago, adam said:

One overarching concern is, can you actually fix the offense with a defensive head coach (nowadays)?

Every game it seems to show that most of the capital was put into the defense (top 2 picks), top 4 of 5 cap hits on defense, etc, etc. Fields is the top paid offensive player, and he is on his rookie deal. Santos, a kicker, makes more than any other offensive player. Montgomery is next, on his rookie deal. Then the next offensive player is Riley Reiff who has barely played, if at all yet. You need someone, anyone, on offense. Every player is replaceable on offense. 

I understand Poles was in a tough spot with little cap or draft picks, but it just seems like he could've put a little more emphasis on offense to help Fields out. Since that was what this season was all about, his development. So it is easy to be critical because Poles basically did nothing to address the O-Line or WR Corps. 

I am still skeptical this is going to work as we have been thru this before many times. There were red flags with basically every hire since Lovie and Angelo. Pace got 2 HCs, but even with him, he kept trading up and wasting picks (Trubisky, Miller, etc). Emery was just terrible from the beginning. Trestman started out 3-0, then lost 3 of the next 4 and never played over .500 ball again. Fox started 2-3, then to 4-5, then won only 9 of his next 39 games. For some reason, he got a 3rd year. Every since the double doink, Nagy played sub .500 ball. It just feels very similar, we always have high hopes, but things are pointed out early, and unfortunately, a lot of them are playing out right now. 

One theory is that Poles/Flus/Getsy are not in on Fields, and they will go firesale at the deadline (Monty, Quinn, Smith Jackson, and Whitehair). Then they will move on from Fields this offseason, which would be bold, but they did move Mack, which was pretty bold at the time.

I'd say Poles went after BPA pretty clearly in the draft although there was a big emphasis on Oline on Day 3.  Yet at that point draft grades are basically flat/even so it's easy to match BPA with needs.  I expected 1) we'd go offense early in the draft and 2) our secondary would be a complete mess this season.   The draft didn't fall our way but the defensive players did. 

I don't see any chance they move on from Fields in the manner you propose.  That would be like scrapping your entire first season as GM/coach and the clock is ticking on their contract extensions.     If they had those doubts it would make more sense to draft competition for him and see who wins the job.  Then you trade away the one you don't want.  

[Stinger226]

First of all we are not going 2-15. We have two potential losses in NE and Dallas but after that, although I lowered my predicted win total from 9 to 7-8 and down to 6-7. 

Our DBs are just going to get better and better. Our forcing TOs should rise with that improvement. If we start doing some more blitzing to get more pressure, that will affect the pass rush going forward. Our weakness will be against the run but if it forces teams to run a lot, it will keep scores down to where we can still be in games late. We seen some improvement in the Wash game although they arent very good at that. 

Our OL will improve once Whitehair is back and Patrick moves to OC. Jenkins, Jones and Borom should improve going forward to cut down on mistakes.  The coaches will adjust to keep Fields more upright. I think the short week hurt on preparation to the last game. We gave that game away with impotency in the red zone. I am optimistic that we will improve going forward. We could have won any of our last 3 games. Even in the GB game , GB had a goalline stand with 8 minutes left. If we punched that in 24-17 would have put us with a chance at the end of the game. 

I think every game is going to be a fight but they all will be close to give us a chance to still win at the end of the game. 

[BearFan PHX]

I agree, Stinger. 6 wins sounds about right.

But the OL is gonna haunt us all season, even if Leatherwood comes along and plays well. Hopefully it wont be as bad as what we've seen, but it's never gonna be great this year.

Year Zero: 6-11

[ASHKUM BEAR]

5 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

I agree, Stinger. 6 wins sounds about right.

But the OL is gonna haunt us all season, even if Leatherwood comes along and plays well. Hopefully it wont be as bad as what we've seen, but it's never gonna be great this year.

Year Zero: 6-11

If they Bears don't come out strong and score, I would rather take the loss instead of seeing them win at the end.  Wins are good but as we all can see, this team needs almost two years of bottom 5 slotted drafts to get the talent Detroit has acquired recently.

[adam]

13 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

First of all we are not going 2-15. We have two potential losses in NE and Dallas but after that, although I lowered my predicted win total from 9 to 7-8 and down to 6-7. 

Our DBs are just going to get better and better. Our forcing TOs should rise with that improvement. If we start doing some more blitzing to get more pressure, that will affect the pass rush going forward. Our weakness will be against the run but if it forces teams to run a lot, it will keep scores down to where we can still be in games late. We seen some improvement in the Wash game although they arent very good at that. 

Our OL will improve once Whitehair is back and Patrick moves to OC. Jenkins, Jones and Borom should improve going forward to cut down on mistakes.  The coaches will adjust to keep Fields more upright. I think the short week hurt on preparation to the last game. We gave that game away with impotency in the red zone. I am optimistic that we will improve going forward. We could have won any of our last 3 games. Even in the GB game , GB had a goalline stand with 8 minutes left. If we punched that in 24-17 would have put us with a chance at the end of the game. 

I think every game is going to be a fight but they all will be close to give us a chance to still win at the end of the game. 

The Bears are 28th in DVOA, and that was before the WAS game. WAS was 30th. I am sure Bears will drop. HOU is 29th. DET (24th) is the only team left on the schedule with a DVOA even close to the Bears, and they only have 1 win. That is about the only games they have a chance in (only game they are still favorites in, by 1.5). All others, they will come in as underdogs.

DVOA does a good job of grouping teams. The Bears are basically IND, CAR, WAS, and HOU. Those are the teams that they could beat, but also lose to. All other teams, it is going to be an actual upset to beat them, even the Jets and Falcons. 

I figure they split with DET, and beat either ATL or NYJ. That is 4-13.

 

Oh and I don't know if anyone noticed, but that easy schedule we were supposed to have sure changed quickly. The Bears now have the 2nd hardest SoS in the league behind only WAS for the full year's schedule. 

[adam]

This mini bye may allow them to make some necessary changes that they were unable to do the first 6 weeks. Hopefully Patrick can slide to C and Mustipher can get off the field. Leatherwood at LG will be interesting.

I am excited to see Harry on the field. Watching his college videos, he reminds me of Alshon and looks like he has a higher pedigree than any other Bears WR. 

One weird thing I keep seeing. Fields can't throw inside the tackles within 10 yds of the LOS. Either he doesn't when someone is open, or he gets it batted down, or throws it right at a helmet. Smaller guys like Russell and Brees didn't have that issue and were smaller than Fields. Is he shorter than advertised, because that doesnt make sense. Also, that may be why we don't see any quick slants or in routes. 

However, when you look at next gen stats, that is one of the spots where he excels? 

[Bill]

Any way Poles played this team this year was going to be a losing season.  No money and only two 2nd round picks.  Pick the two best OL or WR drafted with our DB's picks and we would be no better off.  Questions everywhere and will be even more after this season sadly.  Most had hoped they would know what they had in Fields this year.  Looks like it will take at least two.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

One silver lining is that GB is about to lose to the Jets…in GB.  And puts GB at 3-3.  Which means the Bears are one game back from them.  ??

[Stinger226]

I think you never try to lose, Poles is trying to build a team and had a difficult situation trying to change our cap problems and bring in players that may have potential. A few are going to stick. Watts, J Jones, Morrow, and then build threw the draft. Still lots of questions to answer but if the season ended today, Brisker, Gordon, Jones, Ebner, Gill, Roberson, and Jones will end up being team builders. V Jones being hurt thru the pre season up till now prohibited his growth. Definitely not a punt returner. They know that know and will gradually work him into the offense. We still have some high end draft prospects that still have time to prove there worth. Leatherwood, Harry, Kellen Diesch, Joel Blackwell, Tevon Wesco , Sterling Weatherford. 

Next yr we will add WRs from FA and the draft. We will add to the OL and DL. The question will be answered on Roquan Smith . I think we keep Monty to a team friendly contract. I think Fields proves his status, hopefully he can stay healthy.

Our core: J. Johnson, Jackson, Brisker, Gordon, Vildor, Morrow, Roquan, Robinson, Gipson, Al-Q Muhammad, Watts, J Jones, B Jones, Whitehair, Jenkins, Borom, Kmet, Monty, Herbert, Ebner, Fields, and Mooney.  A few more could still prove themselves this yr. 

[adam]

16 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

One silver lining is that GB is about to lose to the Jets…in GB.  And puts GB at 3-3.  Which means the Bears are one game back from them.  ??

A pretty crazy weekend. Giants too? That would've turned out to be a big win for the Bears. Interesting that for how bad they have played, it has basically been unforced errors costing them games. Velus -2, ESM -1 (you can't just let a defender rip the ball out of your hands while you are running). 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

6 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

We still have some high end draft prospects that still have time to prove there worth. Leatherwood, Harry, Kellen Diesch, Joel Blackwell, Tevon Wesco , Sterling Weatherford. 

Riley Reiff should be added to the list although it appears he’s gonna be an easy “cut” decision. Wonder why he’s no longer legit considering his 1st round pedigree?  Surely he’d have been a better option for a stopgap this year? 

[killakrzydav]

If were 2-15 this year that would be great because we'd have the number one overall pick.  I'm definitely taking Bryce and wishing homie(Justin) well.

[AZ54]

Looking ahead a bit I see 1) our whiny neighbors to the north have a bit of a cap issue in 2023.    $4mil in cap space and no easy/logical players to cut without big dead money hits.  They have to sign Elgton Jenkins who Spotrac has with a market value of $14mil/yr.    If they can't do something there I'd say he becomes FA target #1 for us.  

2). We currently have $115mil in cap space for 2023.   Likely cuts:

Quinn. $8.5m dead money,  $9.8m cap space

Muhammed.  $0.5k dead money,   $4mil cap space

Patrick.   $1.5m dead money,   $3.9m cap space 

Bears adjusted cap space:  $132.7m

Sign Jenkins and move Borom to supersub.  If they are highly confident in Borom and/or  Leatherwood, they could cut Whitehair and let them compete to take over at LG.  Additional savings of $5.8mil.   

Likely extensions:  Mooney, Jaylon Johnson, possible Montgomery

I'm not so sure Poles will want to spend $20mil/yr on Roquan.  Sign and trade seems logical here.  I like the proposed trade to Houston and Lovie.      

[BearFan PHX]

5 hours ago, AZ54 said:

Sign and trade seems logical here.  I like the proposed trade to Houston and Lovie.      

Tag and trade!

[Connorbear]

On 10/14/2022 at 5:17 PM, BearFan PHX said:

These guys inherited a house on fire. They just put out the fire. They haven't had any chance to do any interior decorating yet. You come to the house and say "before it was burning, now it is un-liveable - both are unacceptable." Yes. But these guys didn't start the fire. We fired those guys. These guys agreed to go through this year to get to where they were running things next year. They haven't had the time or resources to do anything long term to fix this. Making shorter term moves to make this year work at the expense of the future is exactly why our house was on fire. This is discipline.

We can't judge them on this at all. This isn't year one. This is year zero.

Next year i will not be so forgiving. Then the product will be fair to begin to judge.

 

All of this. Poles inherited a complete dumpster fire. I had absolutely no expectations for this year. As a STH I am just glad I was able to witness a win in person (Houston). I don't expect to see another one (maybe Detroit). My only concern for this year was answering the Fields question - is he the guy going forward? At this point, I think we may have to push that to next season. 

Peace