Draft Slot Tracker (thru Week 15)

[lemonej]

6 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

I find it interesting that D Leonard and Sanborn both are 4.7 40s guys. 

Backing up the thought that you don't pay off ball LBs big money is ringing true in Leonard's case.

[lemonej]

Currently the Bears are in the 2nd draft position which is the highest they have been pre trade since their 1969 1-13 season. That is Will Anderson and Jalen Carter territory. A king's ransom can be had though if a QB needy team with draft capital wants to move up. Pittsburgh is now a 4 win team. This hands down is going to be one of the most interesting off seasons since I have been on this board.

[BearFan PHX]

6 hours ago, lemonej said:

Currently the Bears are in the 2nd draft position which is the highest they have been pre trade since their 1969 1-13 season. That is Will Anderson and Jalen Carter territory. A king's ransom can be had though if a QB needy team with draft capital wants to move up. Pittsburgh is now a 4 win team. This hands down is going to be one of the most interesting off seasons since I have been on this board.

absolutely!

[DABEARSDABOMB]

10 hours ago, lemonej said:

Currently the Bears are in the 2nd draft position which is the highest they have been pre trade since their 1969 1-13 season. That is Will Anderson and Jalen Carter territory. A king's ransom can be had though if a QB needy team with draft capital wants to move up. Pittsburgh is now a 4 win team. This hands down is going to be one of the most interesting off seasons since I have been on this board.

The one reminder is once we get through the bye weeks - the Bears drop due to SOS from 2 to at least 4.  So I think it will be hard to maintain the #2 spot, however, if Fields is playing well and they are doing it because Mooney is out (at this point it is) and the defense is just bare bones (which it is) than I think it would be massive if we ended up on 2. Trade for whomever wants the #2 QB, stack the assets, and than draft and use free agnecy and put some draft picks aside for the following year as well to ensure you have flexibility to continue to target areas of weakness.  

[Stinger226]

To get one of the two stud defensive players we cant drop below 4. If we want to get a (draft a QB) haul we need 2 or 3 slot. The injuries should help us be bad but when Justin comes back, he is capable of breaking a game for us to win. Maybe we can maintain draft position with one more win but that would be about it. 

[BearFan PHX]

There is also another interesting scenario. I want to make clear this is NOT what I want, or what i predict, but it's out there and worth mentioning.

Poles could keep #2, draft one of the QBs and trade Fields for 2 firsts+. Now I'm not suggesting that he would do that just for the extra first round pick. That would be way too cute and risky. But if he truly doesnt think Fields will ever become a real passer (I think he will!) or if he is 100% sure the QB being drafted is the next Payton Manning, then it's a move he could consider.

If it was me, I'd trade back to #4 or something and snag one of the top DL, while getting something extra for the trouble. But Id be happy with just staying at 3 or wherever we end up and taking the DL too.

But Poles didn't draft Fields, and he now knows a lot more about his upside, and about the potential in these rookie QBs, than I do, so I thought it was worth mentioning that this is at least an option that Poles has to consider, even if he is as sure as I am that keeping Fields is ultimately the right decision.

[Stinger226]

In the 2021 draft there are GMs that took Zack Wilson, Troy Lance, and Mac Jones. Dont know anything about the QBs this yr but those are 3 they thought would be stars and I would say none of them have shown that yet. There is still time, but I would think Poles goes with what is a better prospect that is on his team right now.

He could trade back farther and still get the top OL and WR on the board, but hope he goes for the top 2 players in the draft plus gets some extra picks.

[BearFan PHX]

24 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

In the 2021 draft there are GMs that took Zack Wilson, Troy Lance, and Mac Jones. Dont know anything about the QBs this yr but those are 3 they thought would be stars and I would say none of them have shown that yet. There is still time, but I would think Poles goes with what is a better prospect that is on his team right now.

He could trade back farther and still get the top OL and WR on the board, but hope he goes for the top 2 players in the draft plus gets some extra picks.

I agree with all of this, but I dont know what Bears scouts think about this years' QBs, and what they think about where Fields is headed. From my perspective in the cheap seats, I agree with you, but Poles will do his due diligence on every possible scenario, and Id love to be a fly on the wall for those discussions.

[scs787]

1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:

In the 2021 draft there are GMs that took Zack Wilson, Troy Lance, and Mac Jones. Dont know anything about the QBs this yr but those are 3 they thought would be stars and I would say none of them have shown that yet. There is still time, but I would think Poles goes with what is a better prospect that is on his team right now.

He could trade back farther and still get the top OL and WR on the board, but hope he goes for the top 2 players in the draft plus gets some extra picks.

I wouldn't totally hate this, especially if there's an absolute haul to be had. 

I'd especially love to get picks back this year. I doubt Pittsburgh gives up on Pickett(They should) but if they wanna trade up in the 1st and give us our 2nd plus their 2nd, I'd sign up for that all day. It's gonna be Justin's 3rd year and I think these next 2 years they need to be all in before his contract gets silly. 3 top 40 picks to move down a few spots would be really nice. You'd also hope to get 2 more starters with the Baltimore pick and your high 3rd rounder. That's 5 top 65ish picks and 125 mill in cap space. 

 

 

 

 

 

[AZ54]

3 hours ago, scs787 said:

I wouldn't totally hate this, especially if there's an absolute haul to be had. 

I'd especially love to get picks back this year. I doubt Pittsburgh gives up on Pickett(They should) but if they wanna trade up in the 1st and give us our 2nd plus their 2nd, I'd sign up for that all day. It's gonna be Justin's 3rd year and I think these next 2 years they need to be all in before his contract gets silly. 3 top 40 picks to move down a few spots would be really nice. You'd also hope to get 2 more starters with the Baltimore pick and your high 3rd rounder. That's 5 top 65ish picks and 125 mill in cap space. 

 

 

 

 

 

Watching Pickett last night throw numerous passes into the dirt, or nearly so, was almost as enjoyable as watching Pickens dropping them.  Ryan Clark afterward calling them perfect passes that only the WR could catch.  Sure, because every DB loves seeing a pass so low there is not a chance of any RAC.  

[AZ54]

Haven't seen a sack like this before.  

 

[Stinger226]

I watched highlight films for Carter and Anderson, and one where a dude viewing them. I think I agree with him on questions about Anderson transforming to the NFL. I would choose Carter.

I will say that Anderson has much better stats than Parsons had in college but Parsons did have a lot more wow plays.  Anderson 4.34  40 time, Parsons 4.39 40 time   Parsons is 10 lbs heavier than Anderson.

*2019	Penn State	Big Ten	SO	LB	13	52	57	109	1

 

[AZ54]

Standing strong at #2  after the early games this week.   If Tankathon.com is correct, at this point, we have the highest strength of schedule in the entire NFL.  

[Stinger226]

I wanted us to win but was happy we lost. 

[ChileBear]

12 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

I wanted us to win but was happy we lost. 

Yeah, its a strange feeling.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

The outcome was good - fields had his best passing game - despite 2 picks, but they lost. 
 

Now let’s hope Rams can somehow pull one out.

[BearFan PHX]

4 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

The outcome was good - fields had his best passing game - despite 2 picks, but they lost. 
 

Now let’s hope Rams can somehow pull one out.

Amen

[adam]

Locked in at #2. Rams almost pulled one out over Seattle. Denver lost 10-9, wow Russell Wilson is bad.

This is what is looks like now:

1. HOU 1-10-1   @DAL    KC    @TEN    JAX    @IND (1-15-1 to 3-13-1)
2. CHI 3-10    BYE    PHI    BUF    @DET    MIN (3-14)
3. DEN 3-9     KC    ARI    @LAR    @KC    LAC (3-14 to 4-13)
4. LAR 3-9     LVR    @GB    DEN    @LAC    @SEA (3-14 to 4-13)

CAR, NO, JAX, and ARZ all 4-8. so the worst pick the Bears can get is #8.
 

[Stinger226]

I did a draft on PFN and traded as best I could and ended up with this. 

• 10.
  Bryan Bresee

  DT Clemson
  
• 
  20.
  Tyree Wilson

  EDGE Texas Tech
  
• 
  34.
  Rashee Rice

  WR SMU
  
• 
  42.
  Gervon Dexter

  DT Florida
  
• 
  53.
  Darnell Wright

  OT Tennessee
  
• 
  56.
  Andre Carter II

  EDGE Army
   
• 
  65.
  Jalin Hyatt

  WR Tennessee
   
• 
  73.
  Devon Achane

  RB Texas A&M
  
• 
  101.
  Isaiah Land

  LB Florida A&M
   
• 
  131.
  Luke Musgrave

  TE Oregon State
   
• 
  133.
  Nehemiah Pritchett

  CB Auburn
   
• 
  156.
  Olusegun Oluwatimi

  OC Michigan
   
• 2024 ATL 1st
• 2024 ATL 2nd

[killakrzydav]

Man, what a tank win!

[AZ54]

34 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

I did a draft on PFN and traded as best I could and ended up with this. 

• 10.
  Bryan Bresee

  DT Clemson
  
• 
  20.
  Tyree Wilson

  EDGE Texas Tech
  
• 
  34.
  Rashee Rice

  WR SMU
  
• 
  42.
  Gervon Dexter

  DT Florida
  
• 
  53.
   
•  
• 2024 ATL 1st
• 2024 ATL 2nd

I like the top end of this draft.  I simply don't know enough about the late picks yet.  Rashee Rice looks like a good 2nd RD WR prospect and I like Xavier Hutchinson there as well.  Iowa State has had a bad season but he's been the one consistent threat on that offense.  He can get you a little of everything as a route runner and is a player a QB can "throw open" because he'll adjust to the ball.  

 

[Stinger226]

As I was seeing what was available, I looked them up. The RB Achane had 4.27 speed and thought he would be a T Cohen type. 5.8 , 179. Without digging deeper, I was going with speed guys mainly, only watched tape on a few. The trades part of it would never happen. I tink I did 4.

[AZ54]

8 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

As I was seeing what was available, I looked them up. The RB Achane had 4.27 speed and thought he would be a T Cohen type. 5.8 , 179. Without digging deeper, I was going with speed guys mainly, only watched tape on a few. The trades part of it would never happen. I tink I did 4.

He's fast, not sure if that's 4.27 speed but his burst and agility are  exceptional.  I was surprised to see how well he navigates traffic and has some contact balance.   

[BearFan PHX]

Lets Go Baker Mayfield! Drove a team hed been on for two days 98 yards in a minute and a half to win the game. And screw the Lions' pick.

Let's GO!

[adam]

2 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

Lets Go Baker Mayfield! Drove a team hed been on for two days 98 yards in a minute and a half to win the game. And screw the Lions' pick.

Let's GO!

That was impressive. For all those saying it takes weeks to learn a new playbook, scheme, etc. Mayfield basically debunked that as well. 

That win was huge for the Bears. Of the teams with at least 8 losses, there are 4 games with 2 of those teams, so there is a high degree of probability that JAX, ARZ, and NO or CAR will have 5 wins. That locks the Bears into a top 5 pick, then the winner of DEN vs LAR locks the Bears into a top 4 pick between the loser of CAR/NO and the loser of DEN/LAR. That is also assuming the Bears win one more game. 

1. HOU 1-10-1   @DAL    KC        @TEN    JAX    @IND (1-15-1 to 2-14-1)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
2. CHI 3-10        BYE        PHI        BUF        @DET    MIN (3-14)
3. DEN 3-9         KC        ARI        @LAR    @KC    LAC (3-14 to 5-12)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
4. LAR 4-9         @GB        DEN        @LAC    @SEA     (4-13 to 5-12)
5. NO 4-9          BYE        ATL        @CLE    @PHI   CAR (4-13 to 5-12)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
6. CAR 4-8       @SEA    PIT    DET    @TB    @NO  (4-13 to 5-12)
7. JAX 4-8    @TEN    DAL    @NYJ    @HOU    TEN (5-12)
8. ARZ 4-8     NE    @DEN    TB    @ATL    @SF (4-13 to 5-12)

NO plays CAR
DEN plays LAR
DEN plays ARZ
JAX plays HOU

These are basically the most likely scenarios to play out (from best outcome to worst):

Scenario 1 - Bears lose out, DEN beats LAR, Bears pick 2nd
Scenario 2 - Bears lose out, DEN loses out, Bears pick 3rd 
Scenario 3 - Bears win 1 game, DEN beats LAR and ARZ, Bears pick 3rd (CAR/NO to 2nd)
Scenario 4 - Bears win 1 game, DEN only wins 1 game, Bears pick 4th (DEN to 2nd, CAR/NO to 3rd)
Scenario 5 - Bears win 2 games, pick between 8 and 12. 

Scenarios 1, 2, or 4 seem the most likely, with 1 and 2 both at about 45%, and 4 at about 10%.

No more wins = 2nd or 3rd pick guaranteed
1 more win = 3rd or 4th pick
2 more wins = 8th to 12th pick