Draft Slot Tracker (thru Week 15)

[Mongo3451]

1 hour ago, AZ54 said:

I can definitely see that as a possibility but there are rare elite blue chip players that I think every team needs to have to win a Superbowl.  The Aaron Donald types.  We'll see how draft grades and early entrants line up but he'd be hard to pass up even in a 2 for 1 deal.  I'd literally bend Detroit over backwards and make them pay the Trubisky price and then still get Carter and a lot more.   Levis is a good prospect but he's not Justin Fields.    

If we could Trubisky the Lions, THAT would be hysterical.  I agree with your generational talent statement, but it comes with a cautionary tale.  Remember when we traded out of the 4 spot to parlay that into Alex Haynes and Rex Grossman?  I forget the DT that everyone was going crazy for at that spot, but his career was crap.  Ours didn't didn't do much either, but at least we got two starters.  Can't wait to see where we land and how players grade out.

[AZ54]

1 hour ago, Mongo3451 said:

If we could Trubisky the Lions, THAT would be hysterical.  I agree with your generational talent statement, but it comes with a cautionary tale.  Remember when we traded out of the 4 spot to parlay that into Alex Haynes and Rex Grossman?  I forget the DT that everyone was going crazy for at that spot, but his career was crap.  Ours didn't didn't do much either, but at least we got two starters.  Can't wait to see where we land and how players grade out.

Agreed and really that's the GM and talent evaluators job.  If draft grades are relatively flat then trade back.  I just ran a 2 round sim at https://www.profootballnetwork.com/mockdraft/.  Carter was off the board and I traded back with the Chargers to (6 for 17, 49, 80, and 2024 1st) and then selected 17 Bresee DT, 49  Van Pran OC,  58 Gervon Dexter DT.      Chargers drafted Jaxon Smith-Njigba so that's a trade that would never happen in real life.  

[Stinger226]

1 hour ago, Mongo3451 said:

If we could Trubisky the Lions, THAT would be hysterical.  I agree with your generational talent statement, but it comes with a cautionary tale.  Remember when we traded out of the 4 spot to parlay that into Alex Haynes and Rex Grossman?  I forget the DT that everyone was going crazy for at that spot, but his career was crap.  Ours didn't didn't do much either, but at least we got two starters.  Can't wait to see where we land and how players grade out.

I trust Poles to know who will be good and wont. Of course there are many failures on high draft picks, and a couple first rounders would be great. Detroit, Houston, Miami, Philly, and Seattle have two first round picks. Det and Hou will probably finish in front of us, Mia and Phi dont need one so that leaves Seattle who has Den pick which may be below ours. There are 3 rated top 10, so I think they will all be gone before our pick. I dont know which WRs are #1s , that is always a crap shoot but if Murphy, Carter or Anderson are there, we have to take them. We have a blue chip at QB, we need a blue chip on D. 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

I like going the defensive route getting DT Carter and then pass rushing DE rd2 to rebuild the front 7. 

I would also understand putting more resources into Justin Fields hands to give him the best opportunity to flourish.  If we feel good with BJones at LT, then get another WR that can take the top off.  Jalin Hyatt WR Tennessee would be a Tyreek Hill type field stretcher. 6' 185 with 4.29 speed.  

RB Achane also has 4.3 speed.  Bring in all the speed to take it to the house every touch. 

TEAM PICKS

6: R1 P6 WR Jalin Hyatt - Tennessee

57: R2 P26 RB Devon Achane - Texas A&M

69: R3 P6 DL Gervon Dexter - Florida

108: R4 P6 EDGE Jordan Burch - South Carolina

134: R4 P32 TE Jahleel Billingsley - Texas

141: R5 P6 OT Olumuyiwa Fashanu - Penn State

161: R5 P26 CB Tony Grimes - North Carolina

221: R7 P6 LB Mohamoud Diabate - Utah

[BearFan PHX]

My guess is that we will be very active in Free Agency before the draft, and that will affect our draft needs. We'll fill roster holes as best as possible to leave room for draft flexibility and Best Player Available scenarios.

No question our defensive line needs the most love, but OL is a real need too. We will also need another CB. Those are the raw needs; 3T, DE, OT, OC, CB

We will also want: LB, WR, TE, RB, S

Since we have so many holes, it will be interesting to see how Poles fills them before the draft. They wont all be studs, but these hole fillers have to be legitimate options, because you're gonna have to roll with a couple of them - you cant draft every position with a winner.

[adam]

For age and cost, the team is going to have to be really careful about overloading one position group with a ton of money. So I assume they are going to try to hit on one major FA acquisition in each position group of need, then fill in the rest with rookies and vet minimum guys. 

To me it seems like there are 7 starting spots that could use upgrades. OL and DL need the most. Then WR and CB, then maybe LB. If they can go OL/DL/WR in their first 3 picks, that would be great. We just need some high end studs.

Fields, Herbert
Kmet, FA or Rookie WR1, Mooney, Claypool
Jenkins, Whitehair, Jones, FA-OC, Rookie-OT

Gipson/Robinson, Jones, FA or Rookie DT, FA or Rookie Edge
Morrow/Sanborn, FA or Rookie LB
FA-CB, Johnson, Gordon
Jackson, Brisker

Thoughts on these holes? Any others?

 

[Stinger226]

If we use his first yr as a example, he will go after a couple of high end players, fill in with middling signings and then draft BPA. Last yr he went after Ogunjobi, (28)( 22 Ts, 1/2 sack) dont know it that was due to health or just not up to speed.

He also made contract offers to Brian Allen (27) and Joe Notebloom (27) but lost out to the SB champions.

Tried to get Ryan Bates (25) but unless he offered him big money, Bills were going to retain him.

Since Fields will be ready to rock next yr, I think he fills in the OL as needed. Patrick hasnt worked out, they can get rid of him with a 1.4 cap hit. I think he pursues the OL . They paid Leatherwood some money, so he gets first shot at RT. Jones has probably did enough to stay with his progress. I think Whitehair and Jenkins are our OGs for next yr. So OC and maybe another OT in FAgency. He will go after either a DT and DE on a big contract and then draft around that. As the yr goes forward it will dictate where we need to go first.  What we bring in in FA will dictate the draft.

I think he goes BPA in the draft barring a few positions, RB,QB. I looked at a few of Big Boards and there is 2 DTs, 2-3 Edge, Jordon Addison is the only WR that is consistent in the top 10 and a TE. I can see anyone of those positions being drafted in the first round depending on how high our pick is. Probably Edge or DT. There are two OTs that are in the top 15 , Paris Johnson and Skoronski. Not sure he will do that if Jones continues to progress. 

[Mongo3451]

For the offense to improve we need must sure up the interior of the OL and get a dynamic every down receiver.

On defense, the entire DL needs upgraded.

[Stinger226]

1 hour ago, Mongo3451 said:

For the offense to improve we need must sure up the interior of the OL and get a dynamic every down receiver.

On defense, the entire DL needs upgraded.

Agree with all that, he has money and draft picks, this yr will give us a lot to debate.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:

Agree with all that, he has money and draft picks, this yr will give us a lot to debate.

It makes it exciting.  It would be nice if Baltimore would lose out so we feel better when we  see Pitt draft a first rd talent with our high 2nd.  There are only 31 1st rd pucks this year too.

[adam]

42 minutes ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

It makes it exciting.  It would be nice if Baltimore would lose out so we feel better when we  see Pitt draft a first rd talent with our high 2nd.  There are only 31 1st rd pucks this year too.

I figured we would settle in around pick 12 and Baltimore around pick 22. Baltimore is going to make the playoffs, but a first round loss would be really nice for our 2nd round pick. 10-12 spots is not that big of a deal outside of the 1st round. 

If a stud DL, OL, or WR is not there at our first pick, I would love to trade back with the first rounder. Going back 10 spots is worth a second rounder. Going back 20 is 2x 1st rounders. 

[BearFan PHX]

 

 

[Stinger226]

Picking at 3 for now. There isnt any WRs rated in the top 10 right now but maybe some rise by the draft. If we add an impact player like a Parsons,( Jaylen Carter-Anderson - Murphy). we have to take him.

[BearFan PHX]

9 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

Picking at 3 for now. There isnt any WRs rated in the top 10 right now but maybe some rise by the draft. If we add an impact player like a Parsons,( Jaylen Carter-Anderson - Murphy). we have to take him.

absolutely. I dont see us trading down if we can grab a blue chip DL.

Best case, the QBs go 1, 2 and we can trade down just a spot or two and still get the player we covet.

But if that doesnt happen, and we just take a blue chip DL, that's a huge win for our future.

[Mongo3451]

11 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

absolutely. I dont see us trading down if we can grab a blue chip DL.

Best case, the QBs go 1, 2 and we can trade down just a spot or two and still get the player we covet.

But if that doesnt happen, and we just take a blue chip DL, that's a huge win for our future.

I've been debating myself on this one.  If we trade out of three, we can get a bounty of picks.  What's worth more two to three starter upgrades at DL or one blue chip DL.  Sometimes I think of the odds and sometimes it's the what could be if they are generational.  Do you get Aaron Donald or Tommie Harris?  Tommie was great while healthy, but it didn't last long enough.

[AZ54]

49 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

I've been debating myself on this one.  If we trade out of three, we can get a bounty of picks.  What's worth more two to three starter upgrades at DL or one blue chip DL.  Sometimes I think of the odds and sometimes it's the what could be if they are generational.  Do you get Aaron Donald or Tommie Harris?  Tommie was great while healthy, but it didn't last long enough.

We have over $100 million to upgrade two or three starting spots.   Starters are usually available every offseason.   Moreover we should be able to draft a couple starters.   Elite talent almost always has to be drafted.  

[BearFan PHX]

If you think a player will be elite, you dont trade down, if there is a run on QBs, we might be able to drop down a couple of slots and still get one of the blue chip DLs. That is if you value them equally of course.

You can operate from fear that you'll reach for Aaron Donald and get Tommie Harris instead, but if you are in position to take your swings, early on in the tenure of your GMship, then you gotta go with what your scouting tells you and swing for greatness!

Conversely, if your intel says neither of the DLs are that good, and there's a player at a different position you like at a slightly lower pick, you trade out.

I think it all comes down to the internal ratings and projections.

But if you think it's Aaron Donald, you gotta take him.

[adam]

Bears now picking 3rd, but man, are other teams not helping out. Due to other teams byes, the Bears can drop all the way to 9th once their bye week hits due to tie breakers.

HOU and CAR are ahead of the Bears, but LVR, DEN, LAR, CLE, PIT, and JAX are behind them. Since the Bears have the toughest SoS, they get the worst pick in a tie.

 

At this point, it has to be Jalen Carter. If not, you have to consider trading back to recoup some picks. 

[Stinger226]

We can't  move out of a draft spot to get us a blue chip player. Right behind us is Seattle and Detroit. If we trade with them, what can we expect to get ? Behind them the teams don't need a QB. So that are our only options. Dropping out of top 10 to get extra picks is a bad idea.Both Seattle and Detroit have 2 first round picks. Is that expected in a trade to move a few spots?

More like a 2 nd and a 4th and a 3rd next year?

What say you?

[adam]

Here are two recent trades with the 3rd pick involved. If the Bears have an opportunity like this, they have to trade down. To move down 9 spots, the Dolphins got 2 additional 1st round picks and a 3rd rounder. 4 years ago, the Colts only moved down 3 slots and got 3 second rounders. With 2 of those picks, they got 2x Pro Bowl OLinemen. 

[Stinger226]

The second one is about where we will be trading back to (6) as it stands now. At 6 we could still get one of the top 3 blue chip players. I suspect Anderson and Carter would be first taken after QBs so we would be stuck with Michael Murphy or if he moves up in the ranking, Tyree Wilson . I like him better as a prospect. 

That would be excellent if the draft haul was the same.

 

[AZ54]

27 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

The second one is about where we will be trading back to (6) as it stands now. At 6 we could still get one of the top 3 blue chip players. I suspect Anderson and Carter would be first taken after QBs so we would be stuck with Michael Murphy or if he moves up in the ranking, Tyree Wilson . I like him better as a prospect. 

That would be excellent if the draft haul was the same.

 

Bresee is still a very good fit as a 3-tech whereas Tyree Wilson is a bit of a tweener (DE or DT).  A trade back like that to 6 should net Bresee.  

All I see are power style rushes like Mack. vs. Von Miller speed/bend around the edge.  NFL OTs will match his length and present a much bigger challenge.   He might even end up a 5-tech DE for a 3-4 defense.  Good player who would definitely shore up some run defense on the edges not sure this is top 10 ability.  

 

[adam]

This is what the remaining schedule looks like for the teams in range of the Bears. Based on current records, the Bears would have to win 2-3 more games to get out of the top 9.

1. HOU 1-8-1     @MIA    CLE    @DAL    KC    @TEN    JAX    @IND (1-15-1 to 3-13-1)
2. CAR 3-8     DEN    BYE    @SEA    PIT    DET    @TB    @NO (3-14 to 5-12)
3. CHI 3-8     @NYJ    GB    BYE    PHI    BUF    @DET    MIN (3-14)
4. LVR 3-7     @SEA    LAC    @LAR    NE    @PIT    SF    KC (3-14 to 5-12)
5. DEN 3-7     @CAR    @BAL    KC    ARI    @LAR    @KC    LAC (3-14 to 5-12)
6. LAR 3-7     @KC    SEA    LV    @GB    DEN    @LAC    @SEA (3-14 to 5-12)
7. CLE 3-7     TB    @HOU    @CIN    BAL    NO    @WSH    @PIT (3-14 to 5-12) - If Watson starts playing, they will drop out of the top 10.
8. PIT 3-7     @IND    @ATL    BAL    @CAR    LV    @BAL    CLE (3-14 to 5-12)
9. JAX 3-7     BAL    @DET    @TEN    DAL    @NYJ    @HOU    TEN (3-14 to 4-13)

If the season plays out as expected, the top 5 picks will look like this:

1. HOU
2. CHI 
3. CAR
4. JAX 
5. LVR

If the Bears get to #2, some team looking for a QB will want to get in front of CAR who will be taking one. This could get really interesting.

[Stinger226]

If we remain at 3 and the first 2 picks are QBs, who do you choose between Anderson or Carter? 

If Anderson turns out to be Parsons like or Carter turns out to be Johnathan Allen?

Considering the 3T is so important in this D, Jalen Carter, Although Parsons is the most dynamic player in the league.

[adam]

2 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

If we remain at 3 and the first 2 picks are QBs, who do you choose between Anderson or Carter? 

If Anderson turns out to be Parsons like or Carter turns out to be Johnathan Allen?

Considering the 3T is so important in this D, Jalen Carter, Although Parsons is the most dynamic player in the league.

If you can't trade down, I think you have to go with BPA, which would be Anderson correct? Top non-QB in the draft.