Draft Slot Tracker (thru Week 15)

[adam]

Denver is so snakebitten, they now have the 3rd pick but they traded it to Seattle for Russell Let's Ride Wilson. LMAO.

Can you imagine if that was the Bears? It almost was.

[adam]

Wow Jacksonville, huge double win for the Bears. A Jaguars win bumped them up to 4 wins and a Ravens loss boosts the Bears 2nd round pick. That was awesome.

So now the Bears are only tied in wins with 3 other teams.  LAR and PIT play each other. So DEN is the only team that has a chance to be worse than the Bears that is currently behind them, wow. 

TLDR, other teams play each others, Bears basically guaranteed no worse than pick #3. 

1. HOU 1-9-1
2. CHI 3-9
3. DEN 3-8
4. LAR 3-8 
5. PIT 3-7 vs IND (MNF)

1. HOU 1-9-1   CLE    @DAL    KC    @TEN    JAX    @IND (1-15-1 to 3-13-1)
2. CHI 3-9     GB    BYE    PHI    BUF    @DET    MIN (3-14)
3. LAR 3-8     SEA    LVR    @GB    DEN    @LAC    @SEA (3-14 to 5-12)
4. DEN 3-8     @BAL    KC    ARI    @LAR    @KC    LAC (3-14 to 5-12)
5. PIT 3-7     @IND    @ATL    BAL    @CAR    LVR    @BAL    CLE (3-14 to 5-12)

The best scenario would be for DEN to beat LAR and LAR to beat LVR with PIT beating CAR or LVR (or both). The loser of LAR vs DEN is the team that will compete with the Bears for #2. PIT should win 1-2 more games. 

So if the Bears lose out, they will get between the #2-3 pick, if they win one game and finish 4-13, they will pick between #4-8,  and if they win two (plz no), they will pick between #9-13.

They basically have auto losses to PHI, BUF, and MIN. That leaves GB and DET as possible wins.  If Fields doesn't play vs GB next week and others are out like Jackson and/or Mooney, that is probably a loss too leaving DET as the only possible win.

The next 3 teams all have some winnable games down the stretch. The only team I am concerned about is Carolina. They could easily lose out, so they would pass the Bears if the Bears win one. I figure NO and ARZ have at least 1-2 more wins in them. 

6. CAR 4-8
7. NO 4-8
8. ARZ 4-8

[adam]

This now makes for an interesting remainder of the season.

Now Detroit, courtesy of LAR, has the #3 pick, and SEA, courtesy of DEN, has the #4 pick. Both of those teams could be in the hunt for a QB, which makes the #2 pick even that much more of an asset. 

DET - 3rd and 12th
SEA - 4th and 16th
CAR - 6th (4 slots) + 37th + 2024 1st
LVR - 9th (7 slots) + 40th + 2024 1st  + 2025 1st 
IND - 14th (12 slots) + 45th + 2023 3rd + 2024 1st + 2025 1st
ATL - 15th (13 slots) + 46th + 2023 3rd + 2024 1st + 2025 1st + 2024 6th

It feels like anything out of the top 10 is too much draft capital for one team to give up, so I don't think INDY or ATL bite. However, like some have said, a top end veteran could replace one of those 1st rounders. ATL is interesting just because of Pace being there. Would he trade up to #2 in a second organization?

Seattle is still in play for #2 and a trade with the Bears. They could move ahead of Detroit for #4 + #35 + #67 and a 2024 2nd rounder, so they would only have to give up one 1st, and keep their second one this year. That would give the Bears #4, #35, #54, #65, and #67 in the 2023 draft in the first 3 rounds. 5 picks in the top 70 would be insane. 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

4 hours ago, adam said:

They basically have auto losses to PHI, BUF, and MIN. That leaves GB and DET as possible wins.  If Fields doesn't play vs GB next week and others are out like Jackson and/or Mooney, that is probably a loss too leaving DET as the only possible win.

Mooney is most likely put for the year.  Looks like torn ligament in the ankle and will require surgery.  

[DABEARSDABOMB]

5 hours ago, adam said:

BEARS NOW WITH THE #2 PICK!!!

This is insane, CAR beat the hapless Broncos (Let's Ride!), so the Bears are the only 3-9 team (right now).

Other than the injuries to some key players on Bears, it was a good day from a draft perspective. Jags, Raiders, and Panthers all with wins. And as much as I hate to say it - Packers winning tonight probably would be a good thing too. 

[DABEARSDABOMB]

4 minutes ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

Mooney is most likely put for the year.  Looks like torn ligament in the ankle and will require surgery.  

Crap is that what is being reported? 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

7 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

Crap is that what is being reported? 

https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/bears/report-bears-darnell-mooney-likely-miss-rest-2022-season

 

[Stinger226]

If we can get Seattle and Detroit to get into a bidding war, we could get both first rounders and a third plus a 2nd next yr.  Rams are pretty bad thou and Denver looks bad. So they may not fall enough back to make a big splash.  

[Mongo3451]

Great work Adam!  The options are great at this point.  This will be an exciting off season.

The highlight of all of this is that the entire NFL knows this will be the place to be.

[AZ54]

49 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

Crap is that what is being reported? 

At this point any significant injury is season ending.  Ankle sprain that takes 4-6 weeks to heal?  Done.  Would it matter or even be worth it to have Mooney play in the last game?  IMO you use those reps for guys like Claypool, Pringle, even Velus to help him for next year.    

[DABEARSDABOMB]

1 hour ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/bears/report-bears-darnell-mooney-likely-miss-rest-2022-season

 

Just sucks. Hopefully he can have a largely normal offseason and get better quick! Better yet let the report not be true and his actual injury is more minor. 

[DABEARSDABOMB]

31 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

At this point any significant injury is season ending.  Ankle sprain that takes 4-6 weeks to heal?  Done.  Would it matter or even be worth it to have Mooney play in the last game?  IMO you use those reps for guys like Claypool, Pringle, even Velus to help him for next year.    

True - I just hope whatever he has is more that time frame than some 6 month plus injury that also costs him a normal offseason. 
 

And good points on Jones, Pringle and Claypool now getting more chances to show themselves. Hopefully Jones and Claypool step up. 

[Stinger226]

Since losing is an advantage to us now, going forward, Poles gets to evaluate the rest of the roster as people get hurt. That is not a bad thing. Hopefully Mooney and EJ are short term injuries. I would still like to see us beat the packers next week even thou that hurts our slot.

[adam]

2 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

Since losing is an advantage to us now, going forward, Poles gets to evaluate the rest of the roster as people get hurt. That is not a bad thing. Hopefully Mooney and EJ are short term injuries. I would still like to see us beat the packers next week even thou that hurts our slot.

I expect Mooney to be out the rest of the season, and Jackson to miss at least next week against GB.

I would even consider shelfing some of the other vets that we know won't be on the roster next year to bring up some PS guys to evaluate.

[BearFan PHX]

13 minutes ago, adam said:

I expect Mooney to be out the rest of the season, and Jackson to miss at least next week against GB.

I would even consider shelfing some of the other vets that we know won't be on the roster next year to bring up some PS guys to evaluate.

Let's start with Eislen at center!

[Stinger226]

They say the good teams have 10-12 blue chip players  and fill the roster with rookies, FAs  and UDFAs. The cap limit restricts teams from buying lots of blue chip players and a good draft if lucky will get you 2 or 3 a year. Jack Sanborn had a chance to play and is playing above average in a poor defense. I think as you surround him with better players that will make him play better not worse. I dont think he ever goes to the pro bowl but he can maintain high end play going forward. Every good team has (good football players) that may not fit the elite measurements, that does not mean they dont have value. I think he is capable of leading the league in tackles, and not sure why people think that isnt a big deal. The playmakers get the big paychecks, of which Sanborn could fall into . In 4 starts he has 48 Ts, 1 FF, 2 sacks, 3 TFL and 3 QB hits. That are not the stats of a average NFL LBer. Bobby Wagner ( consensus all pro) in the last 4 games has 39 Ts, 1 sack and 1 PD. 

Not sure why so many people are saying, he's playing well (but) 

He needs to finish the yr and if he continues his high level, he will be the starter next yr. We have other holes to fill we dont need to worry about his MLB spot for now.

[BearFan PHX]

So again, I really like Sanborn. He has all the attributes except speed.

The problem with keeping him at MLB or WLB is that you cant put him in man coverage. You can hide him in a zone, but when we get to where we are going next year, we will need to be able to switch up defensive schemes.

Nick Kwitkowski was great too. He had everything except the speed. And we all saw what happened. Any time we played man, they ran a drag route on him and it was an easy first down. And if you know you're gonna see zone before the snap, well we can all see what that looks like this year.

I really wish the speed fairy would come and bless Sanborn with a few fewer tenths of a second on his forty time. But there is a reason he wasnt drafted, despite his college productivity. He just isnt fast enough.

We are all fans of his talent and effort. He is built like Urlacher too. He looks big and imposing and he is a sure tackler. But he is not the future for us, not as a starter. It pains me to say it, but it's the truth.

[Stinger226]

27 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

So again, I really like Sanborn. He has all the attributes except speed.

The problem with keeping him at MLB or WLB is that you cant put him in man coverage. You can hide him in a zone, but when we get to where we are going next year, we will need to be able to switch up defensive schemes.

Nick Kwitkowski was great too. He had everything except the speed. And we all saw what happened. Any time we played man, they ran a drag route on him and it was an easy first down. And if you know you're gonna see zone before the snap, well we can all see what that looks like this year.

I really wish the speed fairy would come and bless Sanborn with a few fewer tenths of a second on his forty time. But there is a reason he wasnt drafted, despite his college productivity. He just isnt fast enough.

We are all fans of his talent and effort. He is built like Urlacher too. He looks big and imposing and he is a sure tackler. But he is not the future for us, not as a starter. It pains me to say it, but it's the truth.

My comments were not directed at anyone specific, I have not did an all 22 on him, is he busting every time he  has to cover anyone? How often has he been in coverage? I get the weakness but Im not sure MLB covers slot WR a lot to began with. I noticed him miss a couple of routes, but seen him in the way of some completions to. I just watched the Jets game highlights,(limited plays) he missed one coverage but two that were slants that came over the middle looked like it was the SSs coverage area and not his. He had limited coverage snaps. In the defense were running now, they say the weakness is the flats zones. 

[BearFan PHX]

24 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

My comments were not directed at anyone specific, I have not did an all 22 on him, is he busting every time he  has to cover anyone? How often has he been in coverage? I get the weakness but Im not sure MLB covers slot WR a lot to began with. I noticed him miss a couple of routes, but seen him in the way of some completions to. I just watched the Jets game highlights,(limited plays) he missed one coverage but two that were slants that came over the middle looked like it was the SSs coverage area and not his. He had limited coverage snaps. In the defense were running now, they say the weakness is the flats zones. 

Theyve been playing a lot of zone. thats why we keep seeing 10 yard passes where our guy(s) are just a beat late. And more than one arrive for the tackle at the same time. Everyone knows we are in zone.

Consequently, I havent seen Sanborn beaten or looking bad yet. But I also havent seen the coaching staff putting him in that position.

I think the staff is really smart, and they are holding 90% of their mojo back because we dont have the players yet for it.

I like where we are heading. And I'm a Sanborn fan, I just dont think he will be here very long.
 

[Mongo3451]

On 11/27/2022 at 4:28 PM, adam said:

Denver is so snakebitten, they now have the 3rd pick but they traded it to Seattle for Russell Let's Ride Wilson. LMAO.

Can you imagine if that was the Bears? It almost was.

Man, I was thinking the same thing.  We'd have no talent, no money and no draft picks.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

31 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

Theyve been playing a lot of zone. thats why we keep seeing 10 yard passes where our guy(s) are just a beat late. And more than one arrive for the tackle at the same time. Everyone knows we are in zone.

Consequently, I havent seen Sanborn beaten or looking bad yet. But I also havent seen the coaching staff putting him in that position.

I think the staff is really smart, and they are holding 90% of their mojo back because we dont have the players yet for it.

I like where we are heading. And I'm a Sanborn fan, I just dont think he will be here very long.
 

So are we saying Sanborn cannot be a Lance Briggs?  Please explain why he cannot.

[Stinger226]

28 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

Man, I was thinking the same thing.  We'd have no talent, no money and no draft picks.

With all the gifts Pace gave us, that would have been a team killer if we got Wilson. That is why I think Poles has did a good to put us in a good cap situation and actually have a first round draft pick this yr. The pick being so high this yr  is just a product of reworking the roster and being bad this yr. BUT their is only two games we havent been in until the end, that's not bad.  

[ASHKUM BEAR]

17 minutes ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

So are we saying Sanborn cannot be a Lance Briggs?  Please explain why he cannot.

Here is why he can be Briggs.

or even Darius Shaquille Leonard. 

He has all you need to play WLB. I would prefer the speed in the middle like Urlacher.

[Stinger226]

1 minute ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

Here is why he can be Briggs.

or even Darius Shaquille Leonard.

I find it interesting that D Leonard and Sanborn both are 4.7 40s guys. 

[BearFan PHX]

5 hours ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

So are we saying Sanborn cannot be a Lance Briggs?  Please explain why he cannot.

Thanks for the stats. maybe he CAN be Lance Briggs. Kwit and Hillenmeyer never played WLB, so I guess my comparisons are wrong!

I hope Sanborn IS a stud for us!