Is Poles getting too much credit/not enough blame?

[adam]

We are now over halfway through the first Poles season. For the most part, this is what was expected, especially after the trading deadline changes (Quinn, Smith). 

I know he was always going to get a free pass for the first couple of years, but how many free agent hits and draft hits does he have today? How many of those players are starters next year? If you brought in a league average free agent at a position, which Poles acquisition is starting over them? Brisker is the only one I can think of at this point. 

The top offensive guys (Fields, Herbert, Mooney, and Kmet) are all Pace guys. On defense, of the only sure fire keepers (Brisker, Jackson, Johnson), only Brisker is a Poles acquisition. 

Is it too early to be worried? Can we afford another Gordon/Velus Jones draft?

[Mongo3451]

49 minutes ago, adam said:

Is it too early to be worried? Can we afford another Gordon/Velus Jones draft?

Way early.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

1 hour ago, adam said:

Is it too early to be worried? Can we afford another Gordon/Velus Jones draft?

Yes.  Poles has cast away some serious debt in three of the highest (or potentially in the case of Smith) paid players on the team with Smith, Quinn and Mack.  All players that Pace got us and for what?  Poles has also stockpiled some draft picks of which could help us build a pretty strong team for years to come. 
 

Our team isn’t losing because of our offense isn’t able to score points but because our defense can’t stop the other team from doing it.  Go figure when you have an UDFA starting in the place of an all star player in Smith and a couple of rookies.  And having nearly 100 yards in penalties doesn’t help either.  Give it time.  

[adam]

6 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Yes.  Poles has cast away some serious debt in three of the highest (or potentially in the case of Smith) paid players on the team with Smith, Quinn and Mack.  All players that Pace got us and for what?  Poles has also stockpiled some draft picks of which could help us build a pretty strong team for years to come. 
 

Our team isn’t losing because of our offense isn’t able to score points but because our defense can’t stop the other team from doing it.  Go figure when you have an UDFA starting in the place of an all star player in Smith and a couple of rookies.  And having nearly 100 yards in penalties doesn’t help either.  Give it time.  

So right now it is Mack for Brisker, Smith for Claypool + worse 2nd rounder. So technically we have 2/3 of the return already on the team and we are still this bad. Outside of the cap savings and a 4th for Quinn, there is no other compensation left outside of a 6th for Mack. 

[DABEARSDABOMB]

9 hours ago, adam said:

So right now it is Mack for Brisker, Smith for Claypool + worse 2nd rounder. So technically we have 2/3 of the return already on the team and we are still this bad. Outside of the cap savings and a 4th for Quinn, there is no other compensation left outside of a 6th for Mack. 

You are undercounting the $40+M in cap space created.  

[Mongo3451]

It is too early to judge any failure, but the look and feel test tells me he's been a tremendous success.  He is doing exactly what I wanted done last year.  I think he hired the right coach, who in turn hired the right OC and OL coach.  He did the best he could with the resources he had and had placed us in a position where we will have an abundance of options for next year.  This is the patient, foundation first, approach.  I expect a large investment in the trenches will occur and it will be according to plan.  I'm a huge fan...

[adam]

34 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

You are undercounting the $40+M in cap space created.  

Not necessarily created, just accelerated. The Bears have $45M in dead cap from those moves this year and another $13M for 2023. So the tradeoff is eating the cap hit this year to free up money next year. 

 

[Connorbear]

Way too early IMHO. I would say we should give him until the end of next season. 

Peace

[BearFan PHX]

also, you cant say Mack for Brisker, you have to say Mack in the next three years and his salary cap if you keep him vs Brisker for the next three years plus whoever else you sign with Mack's money.

If it helps, the Patriots dominated the league for many years doing the same thing. Every year people were shocked when Belichick traded away good or great players in the last year of their deals. To be fair Belichick also showed an ability to find players in the draft who grew into substantial roles and kept the train moving.

It is fair to wonder whether Poles will have an eye for talent going forward, but there is no reason yet to think he won't.

If I had to bet, I'd bet we will all be singing his praises in a year and two years, and unlike what weve see from the Bears before, this will be on a sustainable model, not a "the window is open so lets fake it by spending future dollars and draft picks to win ONE now"

[DABEARSDABOMB]

3 hours ago, adam said:

Not necessarily created, just accelerated. The Bears have $45M in dead cap from those moves this year and another $13M for 2023. So the tradeoff is eating the cap hit this year to free up money next year. 

 

No - it was created; Yes, they had to take some pain now - but they were paying massive amounts of money to those 2 players and because they are no longer on the roster - they will now have the ability to redeploy that space. Had they kept Mack/Quinn - they would NOT have had that ability, so you need to judge this by the money they use on others combined with Claypool and Brisker.  

[Stinger226]

He added a bunch of maybes with limited cap space. Some are hits , some misses. Better way to do it than paying players like ARob a big contract and not have #1 WR production for it. He created cap space and IMO got us a few core players. Justin Jones, Armon Watts, Robinson, Morrow, Gordon, Brisker, B Jones, Jack Sanborn., Claypool. Still has the jury out on players like V Jones, J Carter, Wesco, Leatherwood, Matt Adams, N Harry, ESB, and Pringle.

The second year will give us a better indication with a first round pick and 125  mil in cap space. 

As of now, I would give him a B+. If he hits on V Jones, Harry and Leatherwood, he gets an A+.

[BearFan PHX]

Also, this past year it made sense for him to take cheap gambles on players that might develop. We cant score them all as his vision, unless we factor in what he paid for them. I dont expect them all to be good, but he didnt pay them long term deals either.

[Stinger226]

There was only a few that got two yr deals. I found it interesting that he gave an UDFA a 3 yr deal Jack Sanborn. I will grant you its a cheap deal, but he must have seen something. He will end up being our MLB going forward. Think about it, in only his second start, 12 Ts, 2 TFL, and 2 sacks. Had a Int taken away from him over a penalty. He may be the reason they let Roquan get away. 

[Chitownhustla]

Poles made the hard choice to start a full rebuild. In the NFL most try to win quick because its a win now league. The easy part was getting rid of the older payers and setting up the cap to be very beneficial moving fwd. 

 

Poles should get a ton of credit for choosing what looks like the right coaching staff. Playing with about 100 million of Dead cap space the Bears have been in every game this season.  I think we have a great staff, still a little early to tell but they have impressed me with what they are doing with the roster they have. 

 

Where I think Poles has failed = Justin Fields is the most important piece of the future, he could have done waaaaaay more to help in the development of Fields this season. Everyone knew Oline was a huge issue, he attempted to get Bates from Buf (they stopped it) he should have had other plans once that failed. A young QB needs time in the pocket to get comfortable, its well documented how fast the defense is getting to Fields and how often. This can be very bad for the development of Fields.   

WR - another area that everyone knew was a very weak spot on the roster. Would have liked Pickens in the 2nd, instead he took Brisker who looks to be a good player. Checking next years FA class and Draft class it looks to be short on WR's.... the reason he traded for Claypool. Next years FA class looks to have some good Safety's but we are set at Safety because we took Brisker...... 

 

By going full rebuild Poles will either succeed on his terms or fail on his own terms.... He wont be able to blame anyone else. This next offseason should be an entertaining one. 

 

 

 

[Stinger226]

You stated many good things but keep in mind his original plan. He did go after an oline. He made a higher financial offer to both Brian Allen and Joe Noteboom than the Rams. They choose to stay in LA that just won the SB. Also the Bates move but none of them worked out. Patrick was a second choice. Had he stabilized the OL early, the WRs he choose would have looked better. He stated building through the draft and  not bring in expensive FR  agents. He didn't have the money to make a splash in FA nor a first round pick. It limited what he did. The good teams take BPA and that's what he did. His draft won't define itself for 1 or 2 more years, but everyone of his draft picks are on the roster except for Thomas/OG that just joined the Rams, that's a good sign.

After the draft he added Wesco, Harry, Watts, Sanborn, Jaylor Jones , Claypool, Leatherwood, Joel Blackwell, Lamar Jackson, Sterling Weatherford, Killen Die sch and Taco Charlton. Not all of these moves have played out yet but that's an A+ for effort for remaking the roster.

[AZ54]

I'm not sure where to put this but seeing Pickens already cussin' out his QBs for not getting the ball sure seems like a strong indication of why we didn't draft him.  First with Trubisky now with Pickett.   I sure don't want to see that on our sidelines as we rebuild a winning culture.  In the meantime, we used a 2nd Rd pick to take Claypool away and you have to think Pickens early success was part of the equation for the Steelers.      

 

 

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, AZ54 said:

I'm not sure where to put this but seeing Pickens already cussin' out his QBs for not getting the ball sure seems like a strong indication of why we didn't draft him.  First with Trubisky now with Pickett.   I sure don't want to see that on our sidelines as we rebuild a winning culture.  In the meantime, we used a 2nd Rd pick to take Claypool away and you have to think Pickens early success was part of the equation for the Steelers.

For sure, its not just about measurables. Glad we passed on him.

[Stinger226]

I think the mentality of this team is to find people that have good work ethic and have a more team oriented trait. That is why Jenkins struggled early , it had to do with his work ethic. Tomlin is one of the best coaches in the league, I cant imagine him putting up with that very long. He did accept Antonio Brown for a long time but he was highly productive. I think after 2 full yrs you will get a good read on players and why we have the choices Poles made. I think one of the reasons Tomlin let Claypool leave had to do with attitude. After a very good rookie season, he may have been a me me player. After being let go by a team, I imagine it causes players to suck it up with the big egos. I heard Claypool expected a big contract with only average production.

[Mongo3451]

9 hours ago, AZ54 said:

I'm not sure where to put this but seeing Pickens already cussin' out his QBs for not getting the ball sure seems like a strong indication of why we didn't draft him.

He did this while they were winning.  Insane!  His red flags were well known.  Very glad we didn't draft him.

[AZ54]

2 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

I think the mentality of this team is to find people that have good work ethic and have a more team oriented trait. That is why Jenkins struggled early , it had to do with his work ethic. Tomlin is one of the best coaches in the league, I cant imagine him putting up with that very long. He did accept Antonio Brown for a long time but he was highly productive. I think after 2 full yrs you will get a good read on players and why we have the choices Poles made. I think one of the reasons Tomlin let Claypool leave had to do with attitude. After a very good rookie season, he may have been a me me player. After being let go by a team, I imagine it causes players to suck it up with the big egos. I heard Claypool expected a big contract with only average production.

I've seen the rumors on Claypool and Tomlin isn't one to give up on a player easily.  The ceiling on these 2 is relatively matched IMO although they win in different ways on routes.  I prefer the young man with some maturity/work ethic issues who is still a good teammate versus the young man who has been a selfish prick everywhere he's played.   Most people focus more on their career as they reach their mid-20s.  That could happen to both players.

[adam]

I understand Poles thought process with the Claypool trade, but the value of the 33rd or 34th pick seems like it was an extreme overpay for someone like him at this point. He seems like a fringe WR2 or WR3 at best. With all the needs on the team, it just feels like that pick would've been better to keep and use on a different position group.

At that pick, you are getting a starting CB, DL, Edge, LB, or OL. Even after the Gordon pick, CB is a huge need as anytime Vildor is on the field, the other team scores. The DL has been terrible and the Bears haven't had a sack in a month. So we will have to see how this pick looks next year, but right now it seems like a reach by Poles. 

[Stinger226]

Granted it doesnt look good now because #1 we are continuing to lose games (better pick) and our passing game is not completely built yet. I think we have to wait on judgement until next yr to view the Claypool trade. 

If he has 72-932-6 next yr will that make it worth it? His rookie yr he was 62-873-9 . He is very capable of slight improvement and become valuable to this team. I think you could say that Claypool would be one of the best FAs is available this yr, that was something Poles had to consider. In the draft the only WR that has #1 type of traits is Quentin Johnson. There are several with potential but not a sure thing. Johnson is a consistent top 15 but rarely rated top 10.

Last yr 6 WRs were taken in the first round. Only two WR will achieve as good as stats as Claypool did his rookie yr. Olave and Garret Wilson. 

I can understand why he did, it also helps Fields and Claypool to form a bond going into next yr and improves our overall passing game. Kmet and Mooney starting being more consistent since Claypool came here. Opposing Ds consider him a threat. 

[adam]

44 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

Granted it doesnt look good now because #1 we are continuing to lose games (better pick) and our passing game is not completely built yet. I think we have to wait on judgement until next yr to view the Claypool trade. 

If he has 72-932-6 next yr will that make it worth it? His rookie yr he was 62-873-9 . He is very capable of slight improvement and become valuable to this team. I think you could say that Claypool would be one of the best FAs is available this yr, that was something Poles had to consider. In the draft the only WR that has #1 type of traits is Quentin Johnson. There are several with potential but not a sure thing. Johnson is a consistent top 15 but rarely rated top 10.

Last yr 6 WRs were taken in the first round. Only two WR will achieve as good as stats as Claypool did his rookie yr. Olave and Garret Wilson. 

I can understand why he did, it also helps Fields and Claypool to form a bond going into next yr and improves our overall passing game. Kmet and Mooney starting being more consistent since Claypool came here. Opposing Ds consider him a threat. 

There are 7 WRs in the 1st/2nd rounds have produced similarly to Claypool his rookie year. 

1st Round:
London 47-533-4
Wilson 57-790-4
Olave 60-887-3
Burks 25-359-1 (8 games)
2nd Round:
Watson 25-401-7 (10 games)
Pickens 37-512-2
Pierce 32-510-2

Claypool had 62-873-9 his rookie year.

Would you want Claypool with only 1 year left on his rookie deal (2023) or a rookie that produces similarly to the above group for 4 more years?

[lemonej]

I'm wondering how many on this board were around when Mugsy Halas hired Jim Finks because this seems eerily similar. He came into a similar mess and built from the ground up. Of course the NFL is a lot different now but, I'm getting a similar vibe right now. Finks was awesome as GM and drafted a few HOF players. The one move he made that I didn't like was a first round pick for Mike Phipps. Regardless he built the Bears into a Super Bowl contender with great drafting.

Ryan Poles has an opportunity to do it even better and faster so we as fans need to see what he can do. This year was on the fly!

[Mongo3451]

3 hours ago, adam said:

Claypool had 62-873-9 his rookie year.

Would you want Claypool with only 1 year left on his rookie deal (2023) or a rookie that produces similarly to the above group for 4 more years?

I know you aren't asking me, but I'll take both.  And actually would love two early WR's.