What's Best for 2024?...

[Mongo3451]

Our greatest conversation for a long time has been how do we get better.  We've been having it for 15 years and running.  I'd like to take a slightly different approach and ask, what is best for 2024?

We already know what the needs are, but where should the sense of urgency be applied for 2024?  The reason I'm choosing this year is because I don't think we'll be ready next year.  So for this off-season, I'm identifying our top draft need as WR.  Is it the weakest unit on the team?  No, but it's close.  WR's generally take time to transition to the NFL unless they have elite traits, so drafting one now with those traits will be nasty in year two.

There is also good reason to choose OL and DL.  Those arguments are blatantly obvious.  With an OL, elite talent is great, but not as important as experience and scheme.  So, by adding a couple of above average pieces the OL can become good.  As for DL, it's going to take a couple of years to acquire enough talent to make it a strength.  Since, DL players develop faster than WR's, is another reason to get that guy at WR.

The highest WR I'm seeing is at 9.  If we pass on DL at 2 or 3, we can trade back and get our guy if we like him.  Plus, the extra high pick would be nice to help fill out the roster with solid draft choices.

Give me hell...???

[BearFan PHX]

Hey Mongo,

I totally agree. If there is a stud WR out there, a real blue chipper, we need him.

Unfortunately, there doesnt seem to be one coming in Free Agency or the draft. I think this is why Claypools value went up so high, and we were willing to pay it.

I think this offseason will be mostly for OL and Defense. You gotta figure with a defensive head coach, and all the removal of talent from that side of the ball, this offseason is gonna be a lot for the D. Cant wait to see it!

[Connorbear]

Work to fix the trenches this offseason. That should priority No. 1. 

Peace

[BearFan PHX]

36 minutes ago, Connorbear said:

Work to fix the trenches this offseason. That should priority No. 1. 

Peace

so clearly true. It'd be malpractice not to. Looking forward to meeting Flus' actual defense, and Fields having more than 1 second to find receivers.

[adam]

Yeah we need to have dominant lines in the trenches. We essentially need new starters at all positions on the defensive side and we definitely need a better Center and RT on the offense. That should be the priority this offseason. With the weak WR FA class, I would draft one or maybe look for a trade from a team in need of cap savings. 

The Saints (+54M), Bucs (+39M), and Titans (+14M) are all way over the cap for 2023.

For the Saints, Michael Thomas has the biggest cap hit at $28M. I could even see a trade where they give the Bears a higher draft pick with Thomas for a lesser pick just to take on his contract, which effectively is a 2-yr deal with 2 void years. If they designated it as a post-June 1st trade, they could save $16M in 2023. He has been hit hard with random injuries, but when healthy, he is a dominant WR.

For the Bucs, Evans, Godwin, or Gage could be available. Both Godwin and Gage would save them about $8M each. 

For the Titans, Robert Woods would save them $12M on their cap.

Do any of those guys interest you?

[Mongo3451]

1 hour ago, adam said:

For the Saints, Michael Thomas has the biggest cap hit at $28M. I could even see a trade where they give the Bears a higher draft pick with Thomas for a lesser pick just to take on his contract, which effectively is a 2-yr deal with 2 void years. If they designated it as a post-June 1st trade, they could save $16M in 2023. He has been hit hard with random injuries, but when healthy, he is a dominant WR.

For the Bucs, Evans, Godwin, or Gage could be available. Both Godwin and Gage would save them about $8M each. 

For the Titans, Robert Woods would save them $12M on their cap.

Do any of those guys interest you?

Somewhere along the way Thomas became a headcase.  He most assuredly will get cut.  We may be able to get Olave from them if we help them move up for a QB.  Out of the others, I'd take Godwin or Woods, but wouldn't give anything substantial for them.

[BearFan PHX]

Keep in mind that when the bidding starts for NFL Sunday Ticket 2023+, teams could get as much as $20 Million (or more) more salary cap room than they currently project to.

Apparently Apple and Amazon are interested, so that will drive the price way up.

We need someone at WR #1 tho, and the pickings looks tough this year.

[adam]

11 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

Keep in mind that when the bidding starts for NFL Sunday Ticket 2023+, teams could get as much as $20 Million (or more) more salary cap room than they currently project to.

Apparently Apple and Amazon are interested, so that will drive the price way up.

We need someone at WR #1 tho, and the pickings looks tough this year.

Actually Apple backed out. It is now between Amazon (Prime) and Google (YouTube TV).

[Stinger226]

Hard to say how everything will play out but Poles is trying to build a consistent winner and in the draft that means best player available. I think he gets OL help in FAgency and tries to fill all needs so he can just take BPA in the draft. It may not be in the cards to get a #1 WR in the draft or FAgency so you just better at every other position and go with Claypool, Mooney, hope V Jones takes a step forward and the rash of other average WRs on the roster now. With Kmet, and RBs that can catch, it is not the bottom of the barrel with the passing game. I think next will be a vastly improved team and then maybe 2024 is the trade for Metcalf or whoever. Dont rule out a team that needs a QB that in the trade scenario to throw in a WR in the mix. 

[BearFan PHX]

5 hours ago, adam said:

Actually Apple backed out. It is now between Amazon (Prime) and Google (YouTube TV).

ty adam, I didnt know

[BearFan PHX]

3 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

Hard to say how everything will play out but Poles is trying to build a consistent winner and in the draft that means best player available. I think he gets OL help in FAgency and tries to fill all needs so he can just take BPA in the draft. It may not be in the cards to get a #1 WR in the draft or FAgency so you just better at every other position and go with Claypool, Mooney, hope V Jones takes a step forward and the rash of other average WRs on the roster now. With Kmet, and RBs that can catch, it is not the bottom of the barrel with the passing game. I think next will be a vastly improved team and then maybe 2024 is the trade for Metcalf or whoever. Dont rule out a team that needs a QB that in the trade scenario to throw in a WR in the mix. 

well said

[Stinger226]

I think it is clear that B Jones will be our starter at LT next yr. I also think Jenkins has been very good at RG. As much as the optics arent always very good, our OL has improved. I think PFF is flawed but they had us as the 31st rated OL at the start of the season and it is now ranked 10th. I noticed Whitehair has not had a penality and not given up any sacks this yr. I did not see how many pressures he has allowed but he will probably be our LG next season. Poles brought in Leatherwood, hopefully he gets the starts going forward at RT the rest of the yr. I think Poles upgrades the OC position with a FA, it will not be a big cost and will not go thru the ups and downs of a rookie at that position. Also  someone  to compete at RT with Leatherwood. Ideally for me its Elgton Jenkins. He can play any position on the OL. GB only has 3 mil in cap space next yr. He is familiar with Patrick (backup next yr) and Getsy. If Leatherwood ends up being good, I think we could possible cut ties with Whitehair if we got Jenkins, he would upgrade that spot. There are several OCs available in this yrs FA that would upgrade the spot. Pocic, Boseman, Bradbury, McGovern. I see us grabbing one of them.

[Mongo3451]

Here's a draft focussing on 2024.  I really like Quentin Johnston out of TCU, but can see drafting him before 6.  So, I traded down a couple of times to get the second best WR.  This draft has it all.

 

[Stinger226]

I like the other draft better. Although 11 picks in the top 101 is quite the feat. Just think we have a shot at the first pick in the draft and the most money, 124 mil according to OTC.

[AZ54]

After lots of thought watching other successful teams my conclusion is that we build the trenches in 2023.  

Of course that's a basic football cliche but at this point in the season I'm seeing things differently.  Justin Fields is such a unique talent at QB, and I believe he will take another leap forward next year, that he simply does not need elite WR talent to succeed.  In fact, I'd say that if we had the exact same WR group next year but we put him behind a top 5 Oline that he'd be almost unstoppable.  He needs time in the pocket and a good running game.  In the running game he adds enough of a different dimension that we don't need an elite RB, guys like Montgomery and Herbert can suffice.  

I've spent time focusing on some of the other good young QBs.  How do they compare in similar situations (i.e. backup WRs, poor Oline).   Allen, Herbert, Murray, Tua, and then you can see other QBs like Aaron Rodgers and what he was doing this season with young WRs and, really, minus Adams.  They can't generate the same amount of offense without more talent at the skill positions than Fields has, and yes that's because he's an elite runner.  

As a passer Fields is at his best when he gets time to throw the deeper routes.  It might seem that every QB is that way but they don't all have the deep ball accuracy so defenses don't always respect deep routes.  Deeper routes naturally take the coverage deeper making Fields' running threat more dangerous.  Here's the caveat:  It doesn't necessarily matter if those WRs are consistently open by their own accord (i.e. won on the route).  They just have to be good enough that someone has to cover them.  Mooney and Claypool both fit that mold and of course if they are open Fields can hit them for the big gain. 

What about the short passing game?   Since he'll have time to throw Fields doesn't need a WR receiver who can win early.  To be honest, he's not the best at those reads anyway at this point in his career.  So don't spend an early pick, or big FA money trying to find that WR.  Use it on Oline, or Dline so we can win a game when we score 30pts.   

We might still struggle in the redzone without that one WR who can win early on a route but I think we'd still see point totals like we've had this year starting in Wk 7:  33, 29, 32, 30, 24pts = 29.4pts avg.  Then some injuries hit us and we dropped:  Jets (Siemian) 10pts, Packers 20pts, Eagles 20pts, and today with 3 backups on Oline (4 if you count Mustipher as backup caliber) just 13pts.  That was enough for me to see the blueprint for this offseason.  

 

[adam]

With the cap space, the Bears an easily extend a bunch of their own players AND bring in at least 5 top of their class FAs. With the current draft capital, and how picks have worked out, I am only going to count the first 3 picks as potential major contributors. Between FA and the draft, that is 8 true holes filled. I think they have 5 holes in the front 7 (assuming they resign Morrow), 3 on the OLine, and 1 at WR, so 9 holes to fill. So this truly can be a fast turn around. 

Another interesting take. Say the Bears load up this offseason to be at least a WC level team in 2023, with the real goal of SB in 2024 is that if for some reason Fields flames out and doesn't improve, they will more than likely be in a good position to draft a QB in 2024 and would have a very solid roster for that QB to come into. I don't think that will happen, but that is a better position to be in than being on such a bad team that you can't develop.

[BearFan PHX]

11 minutes ago, adam said:

With the cap space, the Bears an easily extend a bunch of their own players AND bring in at least 5 top of their class FAs. With the current draft capital, and how picks have worked out, I am only going to count the first 3 picks as potential major contributors. Between FA and the draft, that is 8 true holes filled. I think they have 5 holes in the front 7 (assuming they resign Morrow), 3 on the OLine, and 1 at WR, so 9 holes to fill. So this truly can be a fast turn around. 

Another interesting take. Say the Bears load up this offseason to be at least a WC level team in 2023, with the real goal of SB in 2024 is that if for some reason Fields flames out and doesn't improve, they will more than likely be in a good position to draft a QB in 2024 and would have a very solid roster for that QB to come into. I don't think that will happen, but that is a better position to be in than being on such a bad team that you can't develop.

I think more than 5 Free Agents! But your overall point is right on, and it is the kind of sustainable plan that allows franchises to be competitive year in and out, even as the players change over time. Finally.

[adam]

1 minute ago, BearFan PHX said:

I think more than 5 Free Agents! But your overall point is right on, and it is the kind of sustainable plan that allows franchises to be competitive year in and out, even as the players change over time. Finally.

Definitely more than 5, I am thinking 5 BIG contracts (long term deals), then 2-3 mids, and several vet mins. Probably 10-12 free agents in total.

[Stinger226]

As Poles views the roster, he will look at  the lines first and then fill in after that. I think he adds at least 2 starters on oline and 3 on Dline. I think he continues with B Jones at LT, he showed enough upside to fill other spots. Jenkins is set so does he continue with Whitehair and Patrick ? I think he brings in a OC and RT and lets everyone compete. 

The DL  needs at least 3 new starters. One will come with the first pick in the draft and 2 in FAgency. The lines will upgrade with top tier contracts. I think he brings back Morrow and we have Sanborn, so he won't spend big here or draft high here. We need one more CB and  that will be a mid level vet to go with a bunch of young guys. 

As much as we need upgrades at WR, I think only one rookie gets added but probably won't be align pick. As the line gets better with Fields potential, the WR group will look a lot better.

2024 is when he goes after the stud WR. 

[Mongo3451]

5 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

2024 is when he goes after the stud WR. 

As long as the reciever is a stud for us in 2024.  If you go back 8 years of Superbowl winners, you won't find a winner without at least one stud reciever.  Most have two.  Reciever is very key in today's football.  

[Stinger226]

4 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

As long as the reciever is a stud for us in 2024.  If you go back 8 years of Superbowl winners, you won't find a winner without at least one stud reciever.  Most have two.  Reciever is very key in today's football.  

Their isn't any in FAgency this yr and our first pick in the draft is not going to be a WR , so our pick in round 2 probably don't have any #1s at that slot. 

2024 FAs include Jerry Jeudy, Higgins and Pittman Jr. Better shot at a stud.

[BearFan PHX]

7 hours ago, adam said:

Definitely more than 5, I am thinking 5 BIG contracts (long term deals), then 2-3 mids, and several vet mins. Probably 10-12 free agents in total.

oh yeah, I agree

[Mongo3451]

16 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

2024 FAs include Jerry Jeudy, Higgins and Pittman Jr. Better shot at a stud.

Jeudy would be perfect if Claypool emerges.  I don't have faith in ESB and Harry to amount to anything but a good blocker.  It was very nice to see Jones track that ball yesterday.  After that, I like Mooney and Pettis.

Mooney, Claypool, Jeudy, Jones, Pettis and two picks 23' and 24'.

[adam]

7 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

Their isn't any in FAgency this yr and our first pick in the draft is not going to be a WR , so our pick in round 2 probably don't have any #1s at that slot. 

2024 FAs include Jerry Jeudy, Higgins and Pittman Jr. Better shot at a stud.

There is a chance that Poles picks someone up in the trade market again, maybe even at the deadline next season.

[Stinger226]

2 hours ago, adam said:

There is a chance that Poles picks someone up in the trade market again, maybe even at the deadline next season.

Dont think we start out with a new WR, I think the trade he made for Claypool is the best option at this time. Maybe on a trade back in the draft with a Indy (throw in Pittman Jr) something like that on draft day but think we dont go into 2023 with a #1 in the WR room.