Strength of Schedule

[adam]

The Bears really got the shaft in terms of SoS this year. The NFC North in general got both East divisions which don't have a team with a losing record. So that is 8 games against winning teams, then the Bears have 2x MIN and played SF. So 11 games against winning teams, and 4 of the non-winning games are against GB and DET. That leaves ATL and HOU as the last two games. I still can't believe the Bears lost to ATL.

After the next two weeks, the Bears will have played the top 4 teams in terms of DVOA, PHI, BUF, SF, and DAL. Talk about bad luck. 

At least the Bears get the NFC South next year. That is the only division without a team with a winning record. They also get the AFC West which has 3 teams in the bottom 10 in DVOA (LAC, LVR, and DEN). I know things change year to year, but this at least looks like a somewhat easier schedule compared to this year's. 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

5 hours ago, adam said:

 

The Bears really got the shaft in terms of SoS this year. The NFC North in general got both East divisions which don't have a team with a losing record.

 

I was thinking this was the first time in a long time when I remember all the NFC East having a winning season.  Usually they’re one of the worst with someone having to make the playoffs only because they’re the division leader.  And that team had a 5-7 or similar record.  So far all four are slated to make the playoffs.   

[Mongo3451]

The big stinker about the SOS thing is that any team we tie with, at the end of the season, gets to pick ahead of us.

[adam]

4 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

The big stinker about the SOS thing is that any team we tie with, at the end of the season, gets to pick ahead of us.

That is the other drawback of a harder schedule, you get penalized for it. There has to be a better way to determine that. It should be head to head, then other tie breakers. SoS is out of your control. If you play all the playoff teams and got 3-14 and another team plays the same teams but one different one with one less win, they are deemed worse than you and get a better pick. That team could've also lost all its game by 1 point, yet you got blew out by 30 every game. 

[BearFan PHX]

Once you have a team (hopefully us next year!) then playing a tough scehdule can be a blessing as far as tempering your steel against top competition ahead of the playoffs.

Weve seen many years where there is that two year cycle:

year one - easy schedule flirt with or go to the playoffs, lose early.
year two - middle to low draft pick, tough schedule, 5 wins

repeat

the good teams play good competition all year and then win playoff games that they are ready for, having played tough teams all year.

now, you know this year Im hoping for that #2 or #3 pick overall. but this is the last year I want it. I dont envy the Browns yearly top picks. I want to get our DT, and never pick in the top 10 again, or if we do, its because of a pick we traded for and not our finish.

This parity stuff moves the middle third teams around in a constant circle. I want to be in the top 10 every year, and sustain that over a long period of time. It will mean trading or cutting GOOD players in the last year of their deals, like New England has for a long time, but the good teams know how to do it. Id like to be one of them.

[adam]

1 hour ago, BearFan PHX said:

Once you have a team (hopefully us next year!) then playing a tough scehdule can be a blessing as far as tempering your steel against top competition ahead of the playoffs.

Weve seen many years where there is that two year cycle:

year one - easy schedule flirt with or go to the playoffs, lose early.
year two - middle to low draft pick, tough schedule, 5 wins

repeat

the good teams play good competition all year and then win playoff games that they are ready for, having played tough teams all year.

now, you know this year Im hoping for that #2 or #3 pick overall. but this is the last year I want it. I dont envy the Browns yearly top picks. I want to get our DT, and never pick in the top 10 again, or if we do, its because of a pick we traded for and not our finish.

This parity stuff moves the middle third teams around in a constant circle. I want to be in the top 10 every year, and sustain that over a long period of time. It will mean trading or cutting GOOD players in the last year of their deals, like New England has for a long time, but the good teams know how to do it. Id like to be one of them.

Very true on the cycle. The cycle should be Super Bowl, NFCC, Wild Card. 

[BearFan PHX]

2 hours ago, adam said:

Very true on the cycle. The cycle should be Super Bowl, NFCC, Wild Card. 

exactly.

we've been coasting on weak schedule 9-7 playoff berths every few years thinking we were getting somewhere. it's pathetic and angering.

Even Lovie's Superbowl, we didnt have a chance. Hell, Hester even spotted us 7 points at the start, but we didnt deserve to be there. And the double doink team was going nowhere too. It's smoke and mirrors.

But a few organizations manage to be competitive every year. It requires discipline, and it requires knowing when to sacrifice for the greater good. That can be trading a really good first contract player before his next deal comes up because he isnt worth the money even if he is playing very well. The Patriots did that all the time. And finally, we had the nuts to make the right decision on Mack, Hicks, Quinn and Roquan. It surely cost us some games, but we did it anyway to get to that next place where we can sustain without mortgaging the future just to go 9-8 and lose a wild card game.

Of course the obvious next point is getting a high draft pick, and I'll leave that for the other thread LOL

The main point here is that Poles is doing things right. Of course his biggest challenge will not be the players he traded, thats pretty easy, but the ones he and his staff select to build around. I am optimistic, but that is still yet to come. Flus will have an eye for defensive players too.

We dont need hollow job-saving victories at the cot of the future. Cutting the dead weight was the right thing to do.

I really really hope the days of limping along with a Jauron, Nagy, Trestman and making excuses because every second or third year we got a merchandise-selling playoff appearance are over. That isn't dominance. It isn't sustainable.

Bring on the good teams, the tough schedules - all of it.

GO BEARS