Top FA Targets

[adam]

With the Bears having the ability to essentially outbid everyone, who would be the top players you would like to see added in the offseason.

For me, it would be Da'Ron Payne, DT, Orlando Brown Jr., OT, Jamel Dean, CB, with Mike Gesicki, TE as an Honorable Mention.

That would add basically 4 top level players to the roster before Poles fills the rest in with some mid-level deals and vet mins before the draft. I figure other guys like Pocic (Center), an Edge and LB will also be in play. I could also see them signing two new DTs. However, I will go with these 4 today.

Payne seems like the most obvious choice, I hope they get him.

Brown is a huge need, and he has history with Poles in KC.

Dean is a young CB who is not going to get paid by TB due to salary cap issues. He would pair with Johnson and Gordon, and Jackson and Brisker to form arguably the best secondary in the NFL in 2023. 

Gesicki is a player that this offense is missing, a true pass catching TE that can attack the seam. Kmet can do it, just not like Gesicki. This would help alleviate the lack of WR options in free agency. I would not mind seeing Claypool, Mooney, Gesicki, Kmet as the starting "receivers". That would be an upgrade over opening day 2022.

Thoughts?

[Stinger226]

I agree with Payne but not the rest . I don't think he quits on B Jones even though Brown would be an awesome upgrade. 

Andre Dillard/RT from Philly, ties to Cunningham who came from Philly.

Ethan Pocic/OC from Cleveland, he solidifies the OL .

DeRon Payne/ DT, I doubt Wash pays both DTs big money.

Marcus Davenport/DE, NO always is in cap hell and needs a QB. This is Poles big contract for a young pass rusher.

[Mongo3451]

2 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

I agree with Payne but not the rest . I don't think he quits on B Jones even though Brown would be an awesome upgrade. 

Andre Dillard/RT from Philly, ties to Cunningham who came from Philly.

Ethan Pocic/OC from Cleveland, he solidifies the OL .

DeRon Payne/ DT, I doubt Wash pays both DTs big money.

Marcus Davenport/DE, NO always is in cap hell and needs a QB. This is Poles big contract for a young pass rusher.

I like it.

 

[adam]

2 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

I agree with Payne but not the rest . I don't think he quits on B Jones even though Brown would be an awesome upgrade. 

Andre Dillard/RT from Philly, ties to Cunningham who came from Philly.

Ethan Pocic/OC from Cleveland, he solidifies the OL .

DeRon Payne/ DT, I doubt Wash pays both DTs big money.

Marcus Davenport/DE, NO always is in cap hell and needs a QB. This is Poles big contract for a young pass rusher.

I listed Pocic, just not as a big contract guy.

Dillard has barely played (3.6% of the snaps), so are you willing to pay him big money? He looks like a huge question mark.

Davenport has 0.5 sacks (14th on team) in 437 snaps. I would be very concerned with the lack of production to pay him big money. I thought the Edge FA market looked really weak, so I tried to avoid it.

[AZ54]

I liked his potential in the draft but Davenport has never played up to his 1st Rd draft slot.  I'm not sure how much he adds to the roster versus a young DomRob.  If we're going to sign a one-dimensional FA DE I'd prefer to sign one who is more effective as pass rusher than he is at run defense (ala Reddick of the Eagles).  I know we need both traits among the DEs but it's easier to find a run defender than pass rusher even in the draft.   I don't know if that player exists in FA this year but we have to have someone who can help us get off the field on 3rd and long situations.  

[ASHKUM BEAR]

I am okay with adding Procic, but this draft does look strong at C.  If the Bears can find a Creed Humphrey in the draft, the better.  I hope they do not lose out on any targets.  I hope Fields is a player that draws FAs.

[Stinger226]

1 hour ago, adam said:

I listed Pocic, just not as a big contract guy.

Dillard has barely played (3.6% of the snaps), so are you willing to pay him big money? He looks like a huge question mark.

Davenport has 0.5 sacks (14th on team) in 437 snaps. I would be very concerned with the lack of production to pay him big money. I thought the Edge FA market looked really weak, so I tried to avoid it.

I probably should have phrased it better, I dont remember saying they are big contracts except for Davenport.

Hillard is the type of player that had some good moments as a backup and is injured this yr. but is young with potential that Poles might sign. Comes from a great OL atmosphere but not meaning he gets a big contract. 

Davenport has played bad this yr, 2021 is more what to expect from him. 9 sacks, 16 QB hits, 9 TFL, 3 forced fumbles. He started the yr on the PUP list and have had nagging injures all yr. Even though he hasnt earned a big contract, his traits , upside, and youth will gain him a lot of money. I suspect a  10-12 mil a yr, the best in the league make over 20 mil a yr. 

I may not have all the names right but my point is what Poles will be investing in in FAgency. It will be on the line, both OL and DL. I dont see CB or TE in that mix as go to signings.  

[AZ54]

Looking at Orlando Brown's history he started out as a RT in Baltimore.  He moved to LT due to Stanley getting injured  and then played well.  KC traded for him and kept him at LT, with this year being under the franchise tag at $16.6mil.    Brown apparently has stated he wants to play LT.  However, it's not clear if that is because of the money or personal preference.  Poles might consider him an option at RT but he'll likely be paying him LT money.   

Assuming he is our LT of the future, Poles has Braxton Jones for 3 more years on a sweet deal before he'll have to pay him.  From a roster budget planning standpoint if we paid Brown $16-20mil/yr to man the right side we'd easily still be at budget for the OT position overall through 2025.   You could also make the assumption that Brown would be the backup LT for us which is a great option to have since finding a backup RT is a bit easier.     

Other teams have paid RTs big money so there's a precedent.  

https://overthecap.com/position/right-tackle

https://overthecap.com/position/left-tackle

[Stinger226]

Brown is the best tackle available in FA, KC has 28 mil in cap space, not sure if they let him walk. He may stay for less money to be on a SB contending team that will leave him at LT. This yr Brown has had 6 penalties' and 4 sacks, overall rating 73,5. Kaleb McGary is available and has 4 petalites and given up 4 sacks, has a rating of 83, He is already a RT and should be gotten for less money than Brown. Andrew Wylie is KCs RT this yr, I dont belong to PFF so I cant find his numbers but he would come a lot cheaper and KC probably not going to pay both OTs to stay.

Poles has some RT options so I think he finds someone to compete with Leatherwood for the starter position. As of now, I see Jenkins at RG and Jones are LT as the sure starters on the line, he may keep Whitehair at LG to provide vet leadership for the young guys. The wildcard is getting a healthy yr out of Patrick and where he might play him. He can play OC or LG is he chooses to go cheaper with letting Whitehair go. 

I suggested Andre Hillard , he played LT for Philly in a limited capacity and was a high pick. I can see him bringing someone like that because of the knowledge Cunningham has being with the Philly organization. Seems like a move Poles would take a chance on. 

[adam]

So what about WRs? The top FA options are JuJu and Meyers. I was thinking with the Claypool connection, if that would bring JuJu in, or if they didn't get along, that it would detract him from coming to the Bears. 

In 2020, Juju had 97-831yds, 9 TDs and Claypool had 62-873, 9 TDs, that would be a very solid duo with Mooney. 

[AZ54]

1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:

Brown is the best tackle available in FA, KC has 28 mil in cap space, not sure if they let him walk. He may stay for less money to be on a SB contending team that will leave him at LT. This yr Brown has had 6 penalties' and 4 sacks, overall rating 73,5. Kaleb McGary is available and has 4 petalites and given up 4 sacks, has a rating of 83, He is already a RT and should be gotten for less money than Brown. Andrew Wylie is KCs RT this yr, I dont belong to PFF so I cant find his numbers but he would come a lot cheaper and KC probably not going to pay both OTs to stay.

Poles has some RT options so I think he finds someone to compete with Leatherwood for the starter position. As of now, I see Jenkins at RG and Jones are LT as the sure starters on the line, he may keep Whitehair at LG to provide vet leadership for the young guys. The wildcard is getting a healthy yr out of Patrick and where he might play him. He can play OC or LG is he chooses to go cheaper with letting Whitehair go. 

I suggested Andre Hillard , he played LT for Philly in a limited capacity and was a high pick. I can see him bringing someone like that because of the knowledge Cunningham has being with the Philly organization. Seems like a move Poles would take a chance on. 

KC does have $28mil but they only have 33 players on the roster.   So they have to fill in 20 rosters spots with $28mil.   There are no obvious player cuts to create a lot of cap space.  Maybe DE Clark dead cap $9mil, cap savings $20mil.   Chris Jones dead cap $7mil, cap savings $20mil but he's essential to their D and not easily replaced.   I don't see how they could possibly re-sign Brown without a massive increase to the salary cap over the forecasted value. 

I said the same about the Packers and Elgton Jenkins and they gave him a huge deal.  That alone makes me think the cap space might be going $20mil higher than what OvertheCap is showing at ~$230mil.    Even if that happened KC is still in a difficult spot to fill out their roster.  Players like Shuster earned $3mil this year.    

 

[Stinger226]

2 hours ago, adam said:

So what about WRs? The top FA options are JuJu and Meyers. I was thinking with the Claypool connection, if that would bring JuJu in, or if they didn't get along, that it would detract him from coming to the Bears. 

In 2020, Juju had 97-831yds, 9 TDs and Claypool had 62-873, 9 TDs, that would be a very solid duo with Mooney. 

Those are the only two WRs worth going after in FAgency. KC will have a hard time playing JuJu a good contract and Meyers is in NE, so they dont pay anyone. 

[AZ54]

2 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

Those are the only two WRs worth going after in FAgency. KC will have a hard time playing JuJu a good contract and Meyers is in NE, so they dont pay anyone. 

Wow that's a seller's market.  It's not worth getting into a bidding war on either of them.  

[adam]

4 hours ago, AZ54 said:

KC does have $28mil but they only have 33 players on the roster.   So they have to fill in 20 rosters spots with $28mil.   There are no obvious player cuts to create a lot of cap space.  Maybe DE Clark dead cap $9mil, cap savings $20mil.   Chris Jones dead cap $7mil, cap savings $20mil but he's essential to their D and not easily replaced.   I don't see how they could possibly re-sign Brown without a massive increase to the salary cap over the forecasted value. 

I said the same about the Packers and Elgton Jenkins and they gave him a huge deal.  That alone makes me think the cap space might be going $20mil higher than what OvertheCap is showing at ~$230mil.    Even if that happened KC is still in a difficult spot to fill out their roster.  Players like Shuster earned $3mil this year.    

Good point on the # of players on the roster, people forget about that. The top 51 are counted against the cap. If you consider teams will just fill the bottom of their rosters with vet minimum guys and rookies, you have to add about $1M for each spot until 51. So KC has $28M in cap space, but needs to fill 18 spots from 33 to 51, giving them around $10-11M of actual cap space for usage before signing any of their rookies, which they normally need about $5M for. So KC has in reality about $5-6M to use for resigning players or free agency.

The Bears are the same way, $124M in cap space with 33 signed, minus $18M = $106M - $5M = $101M for actual free agency and resigning their own players. That is still $31M more than the next team's full cap space. 

That puts 17 teams in the red to start this offseason (great for Bears), and 7 additional teams with under $20M. There are only 7 other teams with $10M - $52M in effective cap. The Bears basically have double the next highest team (ATL with $52M).

1. Bears - $101M with Justin Fields
----------------------------------
2. Falcons - $52M with no QB
3. Patriots - $43M with Mac Jones - standard for them
4. Giants - $41M with Daniel Jones
5. Bengals - $33M with Joe Burrow - very solid
6. Seahawks - $30M with Geno Smith
7. Ravens - $31M with Lamar Jackson  - very solid
8. Texans - $30M with Davis Mills

on the flip side, in cap hell:

1. Saints - (-$71M)
2. Bucs - (-$60M)
3. Titans - (-30M)

[DABEARSDABOMB]

7 hours ago, adam said:

So what about WRs? The top FA options are JuJu and Meyers. I was thinking with the Claypool connection, if that would bring JuJu in, or if they didn't get along, that it would detract him from coming to the Bears. 

In 2020, Juju had 97-831yds, 9 TDs and Claypool had 62-873, 9 TDs, that would be a very solid duo with Mooney. 

Juju and Claypool got along real well. I think Claypool said Juju was best leader he was around or something like that. Juju isn’t great but I could see a world you have 3 good wideouts and maybe another TE option but that gets expensive. I feel they will draft a wideout. 

[DABEARSDABOMB]

2 hours ago, AZ54 said:

Wow that's a seller's market.  It's not worth getting into a bidding war on either of them.  

That was why the Bears paid for Claypool. Poles saw the cards and realized he had to act now or he had no options. Deandre Hopkins is probably best option if they go FA route. Or someone buys low on Michael Thomas? 

[adam]

44 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

That was why the Bears paid for Claypool. Poles saw the cards and realized he had to act now or he had no options. Deandre Hopkins is probably best option if they go FA route. Or someone buys low on Michael Thomas? 

Hopkins? He is signed thru 2024 and is a UFA in 2025 when he will be turning 33. Are you talking about someone else?

In 2023, the top WRs are JuJu, Meyers, and Chark. In 2024, as of right now it is Evans, Jeudy, Lamb, Jefferson, Aiyuk, Pittman, Davis, Higgins, and Brown. However, most, if not all will probably resign with their current teams. That is also when Mooney and Claypool are FA eligible.

Another interesting thing to note about Kmet and Claypool. Claypool is a year younger than Mooney, and Kmet is a year younger than Claypool. All 3 were drafted in 2020, but Kmet is just 23, Claypool 24, and Mooney is 25. Velus Jones is 6 months older than Mooney and Harry. 

[BearFan PHX]

2 hours ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

That was why the Bears paid for Claypool. Poles saw the cards and realized he had to act now or he had no options. Deandre Hopkins is probably best option if they go FA route.

yup

[DABEARSDABOMB]

2 hours ago, adam said:

Hopkins? He is signed thru 2024 and is a UFA in 2025 when he will be turning 33. Are you talking about someone else?

In 2023, the top WRs are JuJu, Meyers, and Chark. In 2024, as of right now it is Evans, Jeudy, Lamb, Jefferson, Aiyuk, Pittman, Davis, Higgins, and Brown. However, most, if not all will probably resign with their current teams. That is also when Mooney and Claypool are FA eligible.

Another interesting thing to note about Kmet and Claypool. Claypool is a year younger than Mooney, and Kmet is a year younger than Claypool. All 3 were drafted in 2020, but Kmet is just 23, Claypool 24, and Mooney is 25. Velus Jones is 6 months older than Mooney and Harry. 

I meant trading for him - seems like Cards will blow it up. Maybe use some capital from some trade towns on wideout 

[AZ54]

5 hours ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

I meant trading for him - seems like Cards will blow it up. Maybe use some capital from some trade towns on wideout 

I'd be surprised they'd want to get rid of Hopkins but it is possible if they want new start over.  Their only realistic option is a trade and we're one of a very few teams who could take on that deal.   Hopkins/Claypool/Mooney is a really good WR corps and likely with back ups Harry or Pringle, and Velus, plus maybe a rookie.   

[adam]

13 hours ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

I meant trading for him - seems like Cards will blow it up. Maybe use some capital from some trade towns on wideout 

The Murray contract is killing them. I also don't know how many good years Hopkins has. It feels like he is at the cusp of the drop off.

[killakrzydav]

Find The best tackle possible and lock him up forever then add some young pass rushers and space eaters! Break the bank idc!

[Stinger226]

As much as I would take any upgrade, I thing Poles waits for a younger wr like Higgins or Juedy before he makes the big move at WR. One that wants big money that team won't be able to match. Which means we have to wait a year for the guy.

[adam]

Check out Kaleb McGary from the Falcons, RT, 28 yrs old, played 100% of the snaps, current contract APY is $2.5M, is a UFA, PFF grade of 86.1 which is basically a top 5 RT in the NFL.  If they trust Jones at LT, instead of going Orlando Brown at LT (which will be way more expensive), they may want to consider McGary at RT. Would be a massive upgrade at that position.

Da'Ron Payne is almost a requirement for the Bears on the DL, 12 sacks as an IDL, with Chase Young out most of the year is impressive.

If the Bears can double up and get Payne and Carter, or McGary and Skoronski. Those are huge upgrades in the trenches. 

[Stinger226]

Agree and agree. If Payne gets franchised, Swifty did a good analysis of DTs on U Tube. He suggested Dre'Mont Jones as the next one up. Never paid attention to him before but Denver has cap problems with Wilson's big contract, may be more doable.