Top FA Targets

[adam]

Pretty cool WR ranking system by 538:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nfl-receiver-rankings/

You can do single year or multi year. All positions btw.

[adam]

The more I research, the more I think the Bears will trade the #1 pick to a team to get a top WR. There is just no other path to get one.

Here are the teams with top 20 receivers and top 20 picks in the first round:

Pittman - IND (#4) - (#4+Pittman+2024 1st or multiple 2nds/3rds)
Metcalf - SEA (#5 + #20)  - (#5+#20+Metcalf+4th/5th in 2023 or 2024)
Adams - LVR (#7)  - (#7 + Adams + 2024 1st + 3rd)
Moore - CAR (#9)  - (#9 + Moore + 2024 1st + 2nd)
McLaurin - WAS (#16) - (#16 + McLaurin + 2024 1st + 2nd + 2024 2nd + 3rd)
Evans/Godwin - TB (#19) - (#19 + Evans or Godwin + 2024 1st + 2nd + 2024 2nd + 3rd + 2024 3rd)

If Pittman was seen as a mid-first rounder (#20) in value, the Bears would still be owed at least another 1st rounder, or multiple 2nd's or 3rd's, depending on how they valued Pittman.  

The Seattle one is a pipe dream, but to get #5, #20 in this year's draft plus Metcalf and one later pick would be sweet. WR1 + Anderson/Carter/Skoronski/Bresee + Johnson/Addison/Smith-Njigba/Jones would be incredible.

 

 

[AZ54]

1 hour ago, adam said:

Pretty cool WR ranking system by 538:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nfl-receiver-rankings/

You can do single year or multi year. All positions btw.

Every single "top" WR on that list has someone really good on the other side of the field, except one.  Lockett-Metcalf,  Aiyuk-Deebo/Kittle,  Jefferson-Thielen, Brown-Davonte Smith,   Diggs- ?    If you filter that list for the Bills only Diggs is at the top and the others at the very bottom.  

[Mongo3451]

17 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

Diggs- ? 

Gabe Davis

[AZ54]

1 minute ago, Mongo3451 said:

Gabe Davis

Yep, he's ranked at the bottom and just for reference the 2 Bears WRs (Mooney and Claypool) in there are in the middle with Claypool ranked higher.  

[ASHKUM BEAR]

3 hours ago, adam said:

The more I research, the more I think the Bears will trade the #1 pick to a team to get a top WR. There is just no other path to get one.

Here are the teams with top 20 receivers and top 20 picks in the first round:

Pittman - IND (#4) - (#4+Pittman+2024 1st or multiple 2nds/3rds)
Metcalf - SEA (#5 + #20)  - (#5+#20+Metcalf+4th/5th in 2023 or 2024)
Adams - LVR (#7)  - (#7 + Adams + 2024 1st + 3rd)
Moore - CAR (#9)  - (#9 + Moore + 2024 1st + 2nd)
McLaurin - WAS (#16) - (#16 + McLaurin + 2024 1st + 2nd + 2024 2nd + 3rd)
Evans/Godwin - TB (#19) - (#19 + Evans or Godwin + 2024 1st + 2nd + 2024 2nd + 3rd + 2024 3rd)

If Pittman was seen as a mid-first rounder (#20) in value, the Bears would still be owed at least another 1st rounder, or multiple 2nd's or 3rd's, depending on how they valued Pittman.  

The Seattle one is a pipe dream, but to get #5, #20 in this year's draft plus Metcalf and one later pick would be sweet. WR1 + Anderson/Carter/Skoronski/Bresee + Johnson/Addison/Smith-Njigba/Jones would be incredible.

 

 

Seattle or Oakland works.  

Devante Adam's might be a better fit with Claypool and Mooney.

[jason]

1. Orlando Brown, LT - Braxton Jones & Larry Borom can sit the bench and learn.
2. Daron Payne, DT - Obviously fills the biggest need on defense.
3. Dalvin Tomlinson, DT - Get two Bama boys together and their production skyrockets.

Let the franchise transformation begin.

 

[lemonej]

I'm just wondering, Poles drafted an OC from Illinois named Kramer and he spent the entire year on IR. I'm wondering if he is in the mix next season.

If you look at Tevin Jenkins' injury history he cannot be considered reliable. The kid that basically sat out this year Carter (Poles draft pick) is he in the mix next year?

[adam]

10 hours ago, jason said:

1. Orlando Brown, LT - Braxton Jones & Larry Borom can sit the bench and learn.
2. Daron Payne, DT - Obviously fills the biggest need on defense.
3. Dalvin Tomlinson, DT - Get two Bama boys together and their production skyrockets.

Let the franchise transformation begin.

 

I would add Kaleb McGary to that as well to anchor the RT spot.  Then maybe Pocic at C? Something like Brown, Whitehair, Pocic, Jenkins, McGary with Jones, Borom the swing tackles?

[Mongo3451]

11 hours ago, jason said:

1. Orlando Brown, LT - Braxton Jones & Larry Borom can sit the bench and learn.
2. Daron Payne, DT - Obviously fills the biggest need on defense.
3. Dalvin Tomlinson, DT - Get two Bama boys together and their production skyrockets.

Let the franchise transformation begin.

 

Love Orlando Brown, but Jones was pretty damn good as a rookie and will incrementally better this year.

All about 2 and 3

[AZ54]

Orlando can play RT.   Find a RT as backup and slide Brown to LT if needed.   

[ASHKUM BEAR]

13 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

Love Orlando Brown, but Jones was pretty damn good as a rookie and will incrementally better this year.

All about 2 and 3

Jones held his own as a rookie but if Poles can bring in someone better, then Jones has to beat that guy in TC and elevate to hold his spot.  I'm good with that.  I want Getsy to put his offense in that doesn't have restrictions because of holes on the line. 

[Mongo3451]

40 minutes ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

Jones held his own as a rookie but if Poles can bring in someone better, then Jones has to beat that guy in TC and elevate to hold his spot.  I'm good with that.  I want Getsy to put his offense in that doesn't have restrictions because of holes on the line. 

The thing is, you gotta upgrade RT, C and possibly a G.  Whitehair is aging and injury prone and I simply do not trust Jenkins to man up and be a pro, even though he's really good.  So, we have three positions that need pushed/upgrade before Jones.  That many will be a complete mess to practice and evaluate before they can begin to gain any continuity.  Just don't like it.

[Connorbear]

5 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

The thing is, you gotta upgrade RT, C and possibly a G.  Whitehair is aging and injury prone and I simply do not trust Jenkins to man up and be a pro, even though he's really good.  So, we have three positions that need pushed/upgrade before Jones.  That many will be a complete mess to practice and evaluate before they can begin to gain any continuity.  Just don't like it.

Jones is the only player on offense that took every snap last year. He's starting at either left or right tackle for us next season. 

Peace

[ASHKUM BEAR]

8 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

The thing is, you gotta upgrade RT, C and possibly a G.  Whitehair is aging and injury prone and I simply do not trust Jenkins to man up and be a pro, even though he's really good.  So, we have three positions that need pushed/upgrade before Jones.  That many will be a complete mess to practice and evaluate before they can begin to gain any continuity.  Just don't like it.

I project Poles to sign 1 or 2 top Oline FAs and then draft 2 in the first 4 rounds.  If Jones is one of the best 5, then he stays.  The oline can run block but is terrible in pass.  That has to change.  

[Stinger226]

8 hours ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

I project Poles to sign 1 or 2 top Oline FAs and then draft 2 in the first 4 rounds.  If Jones is one of the best 5, then he stays.  The oline can run block but is terrible in pass.  That has to change.  

We have to many holes to fill to to load up in free agency and the draft. I figure 2 OL in free agency, probably keep Whitehair  and draft one in the middle rounds. Patrick is still around that can backup the IOL 

Ethan Pocic is a top 5 OC this year, get him and a RT (McGary) Then draft A Blake Freeland or Cody Mauch in the 3rd round.

There are  going pains with Jones 9 penalties and 6 sacks but for example Orlando Brown had 6 penalties and gave up 4 sacks. His improvement next  year will put him in alignment with better OTs in the league. 

[AZ54]

Just going off PFF grades Braxton out performed all rookie LT including first round picks.   If he was picked higher would we be as quick to kick him to the curb?    With so many holes to fill in this roster I don’t understand why replacing him should be one of our top priorities this off-season.   

[BearFan PHX]

18 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

Just going off PFF grades Braxton out performed all rookie LT including first round picks.   If he was picked higher would we be as quick to kick him to the curb?    With so many holes to fill in this roster I don’t understand why replacing him should be one of our top priorities this off-season.   

this may well be true,but PFF said our OL was good this year too. Nothing they say makes sense. It could be true, or not but I dont think PFF is proof of anything. HWat I saw with my eyes agrees with this particular assertion tho. Jones played well for a rookie thrown into the fire!

[AZ54]

2 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

this may well be true,but PFF said our OL was good this year too. Nothing they say makes sense. It could be true, or not but I dont think PFF is proof of anything. HWat I saw with my eyes agrees with this particular assertion tho. Jones played well for a rookie thrown into the fire!

I know PFF has a lot of downsides to what they do.  However just looking at the first round OTs it isn't hard to find articles on how they are struggling, or were struggling during season.  We watch every Bears game (and sometimes rewatch) them focusing on details and don't really see the league-wide perspective of how others in similar positions are performing.  

6th overall:   

Ikky is better in pass pro than Jones but Jones easily outperforms him in run blocking.  But if you read the article they commend him for helping lead one of the NFL's best rushing attacks.  Yet who was #1 in that category?  Ikky also had to deal with a subpar Oline helping him out.  Sound familiar?  

https://draftwire.usatoday.com/2022/11/01/nfl-carolina-panthers-ikem-ekwonu-pro-football-focus-nfl-draft/

According to Pro Football Focus, Ekwonu has had a pass blocking grade over 70.0 every game since Week 2, an impressive feat for a rookie who has been thrown into the fire of what was a train wreck of an offensive line.

7th overall:

https://nypost.com/2022/12/17/giants-evan-neal-eyeing-rebound-performance-after-rough-showing/

9th overall:  

“Cross was remarkably solid for most of the season, but his overall PFF grade is dragged down by three games in which he posted a PFF pass-blocking grade below 40.0. Those three performances all came against elite pass-rush units, though

19th overall:

Penning suffered through injuries.  For those who include availability in their grades he didn't perform well.  

https://www.nola.com/sports/saints/saints-rookie-trevor-penning-suffered-a-lisfranc-injury-in-sundays-loss-will-need-surgery/article_92d663d2-905e-11ed-9ee9-079056dfe195.html

24th overall: 

Tyler Smith played well overall this year and will be a cornerstone for the Cowboys in the future but that might be at LG. 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/2022-cowboys-rookie-report-tyler-smith-had-a-rough-thanksgiving/ar-AA14AO7f?ocid=weather-verthp-feeds

"Back at left tackle against the Giants, Smith once again struggled in pass protection. He allowed seven pressures and three hits on the quarterback, both of which were single-game highs for him. He was also called for two penalties in the game, which has been a recurring theme for the rookie who leads the team in penalties by a wide margin. " 

 

[BearFan PHX]

AZ, I hear ya. it's impossible for laypeople like us to get the data we'd need to truly make these arguments and cite facts to support them. That's why so much is just what we see by eye. We don't see the players in practice (neither does PFF) and so we just have to hope that Poles' team is good at what they do.

I have no issue at all with your conclusions, I totally agree. Jones did an excellent job this year. I still dont know if he is "good enough" to win a super bowl behind, but he clearly out performed his rookie 5th round status, and I think we are both excited to see what he might become as he gains muscle and experience.

If he becomes a top 10 LOT, then he was a STEAL.

Then again, I just fell victim to my own point here LOL top 10 on what list? And what info did the people making the list have?

This offseason is so cloudy, and so exciting. It's a good feeling to trust Poles in ways I haven't really trusted other GMs before him. He just exudes competence. I sure hope I'm right about him!

[Stinger226]

15 hours ago, AZ54 said:

I know PFF has a lot of downsides to what they do.  However just looking at the first round OTs it isn't hard to find articles on how they are struggling, or were struggling during season.  We watch every Bears game (and sometimes rewatch) them focusing on details and don't really see the league-wide perspective of how others in similar positions are performing.  

6th overall:   

Ikky is better in pass pro than Jones but Jones easily outperforms him in run blocking.  But if you read the article they commend him for helping lead one of the NFL's best rushing attacks.  Yet who was #1 in that category?  Ikky also had to deal with a subpar Oline helping him out.  Sound familiar?  

https://draftwire.usatoday.com/2022/11/01/nfl-carolina-panthers-ikem-ekwonu-pro-football-focus-nfl-draft/

According to Pro Football Focus, Ekwonu has had a pass blocking grade over 70.0 every game since Week 2, an impressive feat for a rookie who has been thrown into the fire of what was a train wreck of an offensive line.

7th overall:

https://nypost.com/2022/12/17/giants-evan-neal-eyeing-rebound-performance-after-rough-showing/

9th overall:  

“Cross was remarkably solid for most of the season, but his overall PFF grade is dragged down by three games in which he posted a PFF pass-blocking grade below 40.0. Those three performances all came against elite pass-rush units, though

19th overall:

Penning suffered through injuries.  For those who include availability in their grades he didn't perform well.  

https://www.nola.com/sports/saints/saints-rookie-trevor-penning-suffered-a-lisfranc-injury-in-sundays-loss-will-need-surgery/article_92d663d2-905e-11ed-9ee9-079056dfe195.html

24th overall: 

Tyler Smith played well overall this year and will be a cornerstone for the Cowboys in the future but that might be at LG. 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/2022-cowboys-rookie-report-tyler-smith-had-a-rough-thanksgiving/ar-AA14AO7f?ocid=weather-verthp-feeds

"Back at left tackle against the Giants, Smith once again struggled in pass protection. He allowed seven pressures and three hits on the quarterback, both of which were single-game highs for him. He was also called for two penalties in the game, which has been a recurring theme for the rookie who leads the team in penalties by a wide margin. " 

 

There are things about PFF that bother me  but they are a site that you can use to compare players. In a couple of categories, Jones was the 12th rated OT in the league. Also ESPN has some run and pass win rates, where he was top 6 in both categories. Compared to first round rookie OTs , they all had some struggles. 

Poles is going with him for another year and I think he will improve. He literally played every snap, in these days that's rare. Jenkins still has health questions, so pencil him in but Poles will add a backup plan to cover if he fails. Don't know anything about Kramer at OC but  Poles must think he has something to offer.

He adds 2 vets and one high draft pick and sorts out the top 5 from there. 

[adam]

On 1/14/2023 at 5:30 AM, Stinger226 said:

There are things about PFF that bother me  but they are a site that you can use to compare players. In a couple of categories, Jones was the 12th rated OT in the league. Also ESPN has some run and pass win rates, where he was top 6 in both categories. Compared to first round rookie OTs , they all had some struggles. 

Poles is going with him for another year and I think he will improve. He literally played every snap, in these days that's rare. Jenkins still has health questions, so pencil him in but Poles will add a backup plan to cover if he fails. Don't know anything about Kramer at OC but  Poles must think he has something to offer.

He adds 2 vets and one high draft pick and sorts out the top 5 from there. 

You just can't use PFF on its own. It is better to use them to dispute something else or reinforce it. So if PFF, DVOA, and a traditional stat all say a guy is good, he is good. If those are mixed it is subjective, and if they are all bad, the player is usually bad. 

The AFC South is terrible, their entire division won 23 games, so JAX is going to have an easier path to the playoffs for quite some time.

In comparison, the Bears now need to compete with MIN, DET, and a fading GB. Even if GB got easier, DET at least, got tougher. 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

On 1/14/2023 at 5:30 AM, Stinger226 said:

He adds 2 vets and one high draft pick and sorts out the top 5 from there. 

I mention that they add 1 or 2 FA and draft 2 and that was too many with the other holes.

We know we need RT, C and possibly G.  Poles was in KC when they revamped the line there by drafting C  Creed Humphries 2nd rd and Trey Smith G 6th rd and bringing in 5 FAs 

"led the Chiefs to add Brown, Thuney, Austin Blythe, Long, Humphrey, Smith and 2020 opt-outs Duvernay-Tardif and Niang"

I think Poles keeps bringing the talent in until they are great with solid depth. 

 

[Stinger226]

I believe Poles can find talent in later rounds for depth. I think he drafts in the 3rd round a versatile OL than can fill in several spots if one of his choices fail. Otherwise later rounds will add depth.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

Not sure if this was mentioned, but another huge advantage for losing is the Bears will get first chance on waiver wire claims.  If Poles holds off on spending huge in the first wave, it might be because he feels he will spend a hefty amount on cuts.