Top FA Targets

[adam]

12 hours ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

Not sure if this was mentioned, but another huge advantage for losing is the Bears will get first chance on waiver wire claims.  If Poles holds off on spending huge in the first wave, it might be because he feels he will spend a hefty amount on cuts.

Yeah, that is awesome, at least for filling out the bottom of the roster. 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

3 hours ago, adam said:

Yeah, that is awesome, at least for filling out the bottom of the roster. 

Think about it this way.  If Washington franchises Payne hoping to trade him but have no suitors, then remove the tag and cut him.  The Bears would get the first opportunity to sign him. What other players might be on the bubble to be cut?  There are always good players teams are forced to cut to get under the cap.

[BearFan PHX]

This is true, but i think once you make a single waiver claim, then you go to the end of the line, and the previous #2 is the new first up, when they make a claim they move behind us etc.

So we can use this special power once, and I guess it would depend on when Washington gives up on him.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

3 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

This is true, but i think once you make a single waiver claim, then you go to the end of the line, and the previous #2 is the new first up, when they make a claim they move behind us etc.

So we can use this special power once, and I guess it would depend on when Washington gives up on him.

We get first dibs after Superbowl until week 4. 

2021 The waiver wire is ordered from worst to first. Following the Super Bowl until the day after the third regular season week.  Then is goes off records worst to first. 

[BearFan PHX]

2 hours ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

We get first dibs after Superbowl until week 4. 

2021 The waiver wire is ordered from worst to first. Following the Super Bowl until the day after the third regular season week.  Then is goes off records worst to first. 

I agree BUT I think once you successfully make a waiver claim, then you go to the back of the list. I dont think you stay at the top of the order every time?

I googled to try to find this info, but was unable to find anything. Maybe I'm wrong. I hope so!

[BearFan PHX]

OK, you were right and I was wrong!

https://dknation.draftkings.com/nfl/2022/8/30/23328786/nfl-waiver-wire-rules-2022-which-team-has-top-priority-claims-order
 

What I said is right for most Fantasy Football waiver wires, but you are correct when it comes to the NFL.

That's gonna be a big deal.

Thanks!

[ASHKUM BEAR]

2 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

OK, you were right and I was wrong!

https://dknation.draftkings.com/nfl/2022/8/30/23328786/nfl-waiver-wire-rules-2022-which-team-has-top-priority-claims-order
 

What I said is right for most Fantasy Football waiver wires, but you are correct when it comes to the NFL.

That's gonna be a big deal.

Thanks!

I heard it on Chicago radio and did not recall seeing it mentioned on here.  Could be a way to acquire a stud or two.  

[Stinger226]

6 hours ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

We get first dibs after Superbowl until week 4. 

2021 The waiver wire is ordered from worst to first. Following the Super Bowl until the day after the third regular season week.  Then is goes off records worst to first. 

That's great news, there is always a few quality players released because of salary every year. If Washington franchises him, if they remove the tag, he is automatically a free agent. He can go anywhere. I suspect they make him an offer and hope he comes back even if Payne gets a better offer.

Most ego ridden athletes want be the man and he will always be behind Allen in Washington. Here he would be the man.

[Mongo3451]

Justin Fields is going to be an enormous factor in attracting free agents.  He doesn't have to send a text, a tweet or make call to do it.  Players know QB is key and they saw him running wild.  They also know how terrible or OL and WR groups were, convincing then that the passing game will be much better with the arsenal we can throw at it.  These next few months are going to be off the chain.

[BearFan PHX]

5 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

Justin Fields is going to be an enormous factor in attracting free agents.  He doesn't have to send a text, a tweet or make call to do it.  Players know QB is key and they saw him running wild.  They also know how terrible or OL and WR groups were, convincing then that the passing game will be much better with the arsenal we can throw at it.  These next few months are going to be off the chain.

so with you

[Mongo3451]

46 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

so with you

My dawg...??

[BearFan PHX]

hahaha its a good time to be a Bears fan!

[DABEARSDABOMB]

I want at least one impact dlinemen, a tackle (unless we are drafting one - but like a high end offensive tackle) and I am probably signing a guard or center. Than fill around the fringes from there but my biggest signings are a dlinemen and offensive tackle. 
 

Does anyone know whether Braxton Jones would profile as a RT? I guess nice thing about Orlando Brown is he can play both. 

[Stinger226]

2 hours ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

I want at least one impact dlinemen, a tackle (unless we are drafting one - but like a high end offensive tackle) and I am probably signing a guard or center. Than fill around the fringes from there but my biggest signings are a dlinemen and offensive tackle. 
 

Does anyone know whether Braxton Jones would profile as a RT? I guess nice thing about Orlando Brown is he can play both. 

Since he's been with the Bears, he as only been tried at the LT spot. Jenkins was put several spots, Patrick was moved around but I think Poles will stick with him there.

I think that is exactly what Poles will do. One DL and a RT. I also think he will add a OC. There are several out there and they come at a cheaper value. Remember last year, the first day in FA he offered Brian Allen a higher contract than LA did. 

2 OL that is here for2023 is J Carter and Kellen Diesch that may be inline to be depth this year.

[BearFan PHX]

I am predicting 3 new starters on the OL. A new center, a new tackle, and a new guard.

[Stinger226]

I agree if they move on from Whitehair. Get Ben Powers probably cheaper than keeping Whitehair.

[Mongo3451]

3 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

I am predicting 3 new starters on the OL. A new center, a new tackle, and a new guard.

Agreed.  Maybe four if Jenkins stays a whacko.

[Stinger226]

3 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

Agreed.  Maybe four if Jenkins stays a whacko.

I'm not sure if it will matter but Jenkins just got married. It seems most of his problems come from inmaturity . Maybe he grows up a little. He's a stud when he plays, but his brain makes chaos for him. 

I think Poles drafts a third round versatile offensive lineman that can fill in if someone fails or beat him out of a job.

Cunningham came from Philly and what does the Eagles have? Good OL and DL. That's where the money will be spent. That's what successful teams have, then you fill in the wow players.

[AZ54]

1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:

I'm not sure if it will matter but Jenkins just got married. It seems most of his problems come from inmaturity . Maybe he grows up a little. He's a stud when he plays, but his brain makes chaos for him. 

I think Poles drafts a third round versatile offensive lineman that can fill in if someone fails or beat him out of a job.

Cunningham came from Philly and what does the Eagles have? Good OL and DL. That's where the money will be spent. That's what successful teams have, then you fill in the wow players.

The whole draft for Oline depends on who we sign in FA.  If he goes big for a FA Center we're not drafting a center in Rd 2 (as I've been doing in many mocks).  He can easily avoid that spot in the draft with a FA signing and keep Lucas Patrick as backup C/G.  Same thing with RT, at least on day 1/2.  

This is an odd year because he has enough money to cover most of the big roster gaps with good FAs.  DE talent is somewhat limited but there should be some good DTs, RTs, C, CB, and average DEs.  WR is meh.     

Needs DT 2, DE 2, WR, CB, C, RT, LB.   That 9 total needs.  He has room to do something a year early with Mooney, Kmet, or Johnson if both sides want to, probably not likely this offseason.  In any case those deals would likely not impact 2023 cap space much if at all.  I'd guess he tries early extension done mid-season.  We also need to leave room for rookies, maybe $10m since we draft high. 

Where it gets tricky is that right now on OTC we have 49 players rostered but there are several $1m deals there for practice squad players like Fountain, Webster, Harrison Hand, Terrell Lewis.  Even further down the list is more or less the entire practice squad. 

With that, figure on top of the 9 starter "needs" we also have to fill in ~9 depth spots that are currently held by PS guys.  So all-in we're looking to upgrade at least 18 roster spots between starters and depth.  

FWIW should a good opportunity arise to upgrade depth we can easily jettison players like Patrick $4m, AQM $4m, ESB $1m,  or Vildor $2.7m.  Figure any of those would just a be an even swap.  

Skipping the positions I'm thinking we add 2 top tier players ($20mil/yr) and 3 mid-tier ($10mil/yr).   Center could be top tier but cost lands in the $10m/yr category.  That's 5 players and $70mil to improve starters and leaves 3 starting level gaps.   It also leaves $20mil to upgrade depth among 13 players ($10m needed for rookies).   

Some of the depth upgrade might come from existing players:  Leatherwood, Ojemudia, Terrell Lewis all have good pedigree at some point in their careers.  Others, like Jaylon Jones, showed enough that we should be able to count him among depth for next year. 

Starters:  Can we get 3 starters out of a draft?  Maybe but we should be able to count on 2.  The problem is going into a draft for a "need" means we are bypassing BPA.  I prefer to stay BPA which could mean we draft a CB again in Rd 1 if we trade down.  

At least 3 to 4 players on the 53, starters and depth, should come from the draft.  If we trade down that number should climb toward 5-6 players. 

Summary: 

18 roster spots to fill, 9 starters.   

5 starters via FA, $70mil

2 starters via draft, likely 3 with trade down.  Leaves 10 spots  to fill on the 53:  

7 depth players signed with $20mil, rookies took $10mil

3 more depth players need to be added via the draft.      

 

 

[Stinger226]

5 hours ago, AZ54 said:

The whole draft for Oline depends on who we sign in FA.  If he goes big for a FA Center we're not drafting a center in Rd 2 (as I've been doing in many mocks).  He can easily avoid that spot in the draft with a FA signing and keep Lucas Patrick as backup C/G.  Same thing with RT, at least on day 1/2.  

This is an odd year because he has enough money to cover most of the big roster gaps with good FAs.  DE talent is somewhat limited but there should be some good DTs, RTs, C, CB, and average DEs.  WR is meh.     

Needs DT 2, DE 2, WR, CB, C, RT, LB.   That 9 total needs.  He has room to do something a year early with Mooney, Kmet, or Johnson if both sides want to, probably not likely this offseason.  In any case those deals would likely not impact 2023 cap space much if at all.  I'd guess he tries early extension done mid-season.  We also need to leave room for rookies, maybe $10m since we draft high. 

Where it gets tricky is that right now on OTC we have 49 players rostered but there are several $1m deals there for practice squad players like Fountain, Webster, Harrison Hand, Terrell Lewis.  Even further down the list is more or less the entire practice squad. 

With that, figure on top of the 9 starter "needs" we also have to fill in ~9 depth spots that are currently held by PS guys.  So all-in we're looking to upgrade at least 18 roster spots between starters and depth.  

FWIW should a good opportunity arise to upgrade depth we can easily jettison players like Patrick $4m, AQM $4m, ESB $1m,  or Vildor $2.7m.  Figure any of those would just a be an even swap.  

Skipping the positions I'm thinking we add 2 top tier players ($20mil/yr) and 3 mid-tier ($10mil/yr).   Center could be top tier but cost lands in the $10m/yr category.  That's 5 players and $70mil to improve starters and leaves 3 starting level gaps.   It also leaves $20mil to upgrade depth among 13 players ($10m needed for rookies).   

Some of the depth upgrade might come from existing players:  Leatherwood, Ojemudia, Terrell Lewis all have good pedigree at some point in their careers.  Others, like Jaylon Jones, showed enough that we should be able to count him among depth for next year. 

Starters:  Can we get 3 starters out of a draft?  Maybe but we should be able to count on 2.  The problem is going into a draft for a "need" means we are bypassing BPA.  I prefer to stay BPA which could mean we draft a CB again in Rd 1 if we trade down.  

At least 3 to 4 players on the 53, starters and depth, should come from the draft.  If we trade down that number should climb toward 5-6 players. 

Summary: 

18 roster spots to fill, 9 starters.   

5 starters via FA, $70mil

2 starters via draft, likely 3 with trade down.  Leaves 10 spots  to fill on the 53:  

7 depth players signed with $20mil, rookies took $10mil

3 more depth players need to be added via the draft.      

 

 

Pretty much agree with all you stated. We will know more by who he resigns back on the team. I think other than a rookie WR that our wrist set. 

Claypool-Mooney- V Jones- ESB- rookie and brings back Pringle or Harry.

If he brings back Morrow and Adams, then he will probably add a couple draft picks to the LB room with Sanborn. There are several good ones from 40-80 range  ( Sanders, To o To o, Sewell, Campbell but it may be late rounds.

If we stay in the top 10 , BPA will be a DT or edge rusher. Our next  pick could be anything but there are some edge rushers around there to. 

I think he attacks the OL in free agency plus one DT. Then drafts the hell out of DL in the early draft.

[Mongo3451]

10 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

Cunningham came from Philly and what does the Eagles have? Good OL and DL. That's where the money will be spent. That's what successful teams have, then you fill in the wow players.

I like it.  On the old site, we used to be able to have tag lines at the bottom of the post.  Mine was always.

"It all starts up front"

[adam]

Pollard broke his fibula, 3 to 6 month recovery. He probably won't be 100% for 6-8 months. Can you risk signing him without knowing if he will be the same player after the injury? I don't think Poles can risk it. 

[AZ54]

1 hour ago, adam said:

Pollard broke his fibula, 3 to 6 month recovery. He probably won't be 100% for 6-8 months. Can you risk signing him without knowing if he will be the same player after the injury? I don't think Poles can risk it. 

No but he'll likely end up with a 1yr deal maybe even in Dallas.  Elliot looks very pedestrian and at times afraid of contact.  

[Stinger226]

14 hours ago, AZ54 said:

No but he'll likely end up with a 1yr deal maybe even in Dallas.  Elliot looks very pedestrian and at times afraid of contact.  

I think (Poles) either keeps Monty or drafts a mid round RB( maybe both). Several good ones in free agency but thinks he spends the big contracts in the trenches.

[adam]

6 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

I think (Poles) either keeps Monty or drafts a mid round RB( maybe both). Several good ones in free agency but thinks he spends the big contracts in the trenches.

There is a unwritten threshold for an RBs for when they hit the wall. Regardless of age, that is between 1500-2000 touches (rushes+receptions+returns). Montgomery is at 1070 for his career. He averages about 267 touches a year, so he would hit the bottom end of the threshold in 2 years.  So if the Bears do sign him, there will be an out after 2 years. 

Barkley is at 1201 and would be hit the threshold after 1 year. That is somewhat concerning with his injury history. Some guys buck the trend, but it definitely happens within that window.