Top FA Targets

[Mongo3451]

I don't see a skill position getting signed, unless it's Nelson Agholar or similar.

The running back position is pretty deep in the draft.  I see us drafting one that can create more problems for a defense than Monty can.  This is important because of our lack of dynamic playmakers elsewhere..  I also wouldn't be surprised if we get a dynamic "move" TE to pair with just to more 11 personnel sets.

[fudgeripple2000]

I agree with the idea of a "move" TE.  I've watched a ton of games of Dalton Kinkaid.  He should be available to us at the end of the second round.  He didn't play in the rose bowl and his absence was obvious.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

4 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

I don't see a skill position getting signed, unless it's Nelson Agholar or similar.

The running back position is pretty deep in the draft.  I see us drafting one that can create more problems for a defense than Monty can.  This is important because of our lack of dynamic playmakers elsewhere..  I also wouldn't be surprised if we get a dynamic "move" TE to pair with just to more 11 personnel sets.

I am in the same thought process. Monty is adequate but what would Alvin Kamara in his prime bring.  If cannot land that weapon as a WR, why not try at RB or TE. 

[lemonej]

20 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

I don't see a skill position getting signed, unless it's Nelson Agholar or similar.

The running back position is pretty deep in the draft.  I see us drafting one that can create more problems for a defense than Monty can.  This is important because of our lack of dynamic playmakers elsewhere..  I also wouldn't be surprised if we get a dynamic "move" TE to pair with just to more 11 personnel sets.

The one thing that Monty brought to the table that Herbert, Ebner and a draft pick won't bring is blitz pick up. Monty got hurt this year doing it but, Fields got the throw off.

TBS the mocks having us taking Chase Brown mid rounds is okay with me because he is a similar runner to Monty and cheaper.

[Stinger226]

Tis is a future post in January.

[BearFan PHX]

That'd be a good deal. I think we will have to pay more to sign him.

[adam]

Buckner got 4/84 ($21M AAV), so I assume Payne will come in around there. $21M for 4 or 5 years (so 84 or 105).

[Mongo3451]

28 minutes ago, adam said:

Buckner got 4/84 ($21M AAV), so I assume Payne will come in around there. $21M for 4 or 5 years (so 84 or 105).

I'm going to say Buckner was more productive at the time he got his deal than Payne is now.  Plus, Buckner came to Indy via trade of a first round pick.  He had Ballard over a barrel in negotiations.  I don't think Payne goes past 19 mil avg.

[BearFan PHX]

Payne should come in between 18M and 21M a year. Likely 19.5 ish

[Stinger226]

6 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

Payne should come in between 18M and 21M a year. Likely 19.5 ish

We will have to slightly over pay to get a few targeted players Poles goes after but we have the money to do that. Payne will be lots of teams target so we will have to bid to get him. Poles will have a plan B if Payne falls through. 

[adam]

21 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

I'm going to say Buckner was more productive at the time he got his deal than Payne is now.  Plus, Buckner came to Indy via trade of a first round pick.  He had Ballard over a barrel in negotiations.  I don't think Payne goes past 19 mil avg.

These are their stats from the season before going to a new team:

2019 - Buckner, 7.5 sacks, 9 TFL, 62 tackles, 14 QB Hits, 2 PD, 2 FF, 1 TD
2022 - Payne, 11.5 sacks, 18 TFL, 64 tackles, 20 QB Hits, 5 PD, 1 Sfty

Payne was a monster this year, 4 more sacks, double the TFL and more QB hits. 

[Mongo3451]

4 hours ago, adam said:

These are their stats from the season before going to a new team:

2019 - Buckner, 7.5 sacks, 9 TFL, 62 tackles, 14 QB Hits, 2 PD, 2 FF, 1 TD
2022 - Payne, 11.5 sacks, 18 TFL, 64 tackles, 20 QB Hits, 5 PD, 1 Sfty

Payne was a monster this year, 4 more sacks, double the TFL and more QB hits. 

You are going against the previous 3 years of stats, in which Payne has a high of 4.5 sacks, with Buckner outpacing every other year.

[adam]

12 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

You are going against the previous 3 years of stats, in which Payne has a high of 4.5 sacks, with Buckner outpacing every other year.

No I am using the same year (Year 4) for each player before they join their new team (assuming Payne leaves).

[AZ54]

I want the player whose best years are ahead of him not behind him.  

[Mongo3451]

1 hour ago, adam said:

No I am using the same year (Year 4) for each player before they join their new team (assuming Payne leaves).

What I meant was, you ignored the previous 3 years for both players, in which Buckner was superior.  Payne in a contract year had his best year, by far.  Buckner got overpaid because of the trade.  Different circumstance for Payne, as he's seeking a raise pic of his rookie deal.  It's crazy to think that we can actually have both.  They would actually mesh well as their skillsets would compliment each other, technique wise.  I'll take either,  but would love both.

[Stinger226]

3 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

What I meant was, you ignored the previous 3 years for both players, in which Buckner was superior.  Payne in a contract year had his best year, by far.  Buckner got overpaid because of the trade.  Different circumstance for Payne, as he's seeking a raise pic of his rookie deal.  It's crazy to think that we can actually have both.  They would actually mesh well as their skillsets would compliment each other, technique wise.  I'll take either,  but would love both.

I think Poles may want more draft capital than getting a high paid older player in a trade down deal.  Payne is only 26, so he is entering his prime years. Buckner will be 29 next year. He can buy Payne and draft his choice of the next Buckner. Plus they are both 3 Ts.

[adam]

21 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

What I meant was, you ignored the previous 3 years for both players, in which Buckner was superior.  Payne in a contract year had his best year, by far.  Buckner got overpaid because of the trade.  Different circumstance for Payne, as he's seeking a raise pic of his rookie deal.  It's crazy to think that we can actually have both.  They would actually mesh well as their skillsets would compliment each other, technique wise.  I'll take either,  but would love both.

Oh yeah, I totally understand that, but for contract negotiations, I am sure Payne is going to point to 2022. Same thing goes for a guy that struggled in 2022, even if he was at an MVP level in 2021, if he was crappy in 2022, he ain't getting paid MVP level money.

For sure they are different circumstances, I was just comparing their Year 4s. Too many other variables to consider. I try to keep it as easy as possible. 

[Mongo3451]

On 1/27/2023 at 8:44 PM, Stinger226 said:

I think Poles may want more draft capital than getting a high paid older player in a trade down deal.  Payne is only 26, so he is entering his prime years. Buckner will be 29 next year. He can buy Payne and draft his choice of the next Buckner. Plus they are both 3 Ts.

Payne is not the 3T.  Jonathan Allen is.

[AZ54]

Maybe these dates have been posted elsewhere but we are a little over a month out from knowing who is available in FA.   Wash has less than $7mil in cap space available right now.  Wentz will be gone and free up $26mil but do they try to pick up a vet like JimmyG or Carr, or even make a play for Lamar Jackson?  I could see Baltimore letting Jackson go in a tag and trade scenario and then drafting Richardson. 

The DT franchise tag is forecasted to be $19mil.   New coaches and GMs are in place.  After the games tomorrow the rumor mill starts to slowly ramp up.  I can't see Rivera being comfortable putting his future solely in the hands of Heinicke, who is a FA and would likely want something around $10mil if he's brought back to be a starter even on a 1yr deal.  Keeping Payne, at least on a franchise tag, really limits their options. 

If they can't get a deal done then I expect they'll try to tag and trade him.  This is where having a ton of cap space really benefits us as opposed to other teams.  We will likely still have room to swing a deal late in FA whereas other teams with more limited budgets might have to spend for the better FAs early on rather than risk getting nothing.   

https://commanderswire.usatoday.com/2023/01/28/washington-commanders-head-coach-ron-rivera-new-oc-need-to-win-next-year/

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10038729-nfl-offseason-schedule-2023-draft-free-agency-franchise-tag-dates-announced

"Tuesday, February 21, marks the beginning of the franchise and transition tag window, which will end on Tuesday, March 7.

The league year will begin on Wednesday, March 15, and that also marks the start of the free-agency signing period."

[adam]

21 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

Maybe these dates have been posted elsewhere but we are a little over a month out from knowing who is available in FA.   Wash has less than $7mil in cap space available right now.  Wentz will be gone and free up $26mil but do they try to pick up a vet like JimmyG or Carr, or even make a play for Lamar Jackson?  I could see Baltimore letting Jackson go in a tag and trade scenario and then drafting Richardson. 

The DT franchise tag is forecasted to be $19mil.   New coaches and GMs are in place.  After the games tomorrow the rumor mill starts to slowly ramp up.  I can't see Rivera being comfortable putting his future solely in the hands of Heinicke, who is a FA and would likely want something around $10mil if he's brought back to be a starter even on a 1yr deal.  Keeping Payne, at least on a franchise tag, really limits their options. 

If they can't get a deal done then I expect they'll try to tag and trade him.  This is where having a ton of cap space really benefits us as opposed to other teams.  We will likely still have room to swing a deal late in FA whereas other teams with more limited budgets might have to spend for the better FAs early on rather than risk getting nothing.   

https://commanderswire.usatoday.com/2023/01/28/washington-commanders-head-coach-ron-rivera-new-oc-need-to-win-next-year/

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10038729-nfl-offseason-schedule-2023-draft-free-agency-franchise-tag-dates-announced

"Tuesday, February 21, marks the beginning of the franchise and transition tag window, which will end on Tuesday, March 7.

The league year will begin on Wednesday, March 15, and that also marks the start of the free-agency signing period."

The Bears can outbid Washington for Payne. Yeah, they can tag him, but if you consider the rookie pool, they would technically have around 30M with Payne, Turner (RG), Heinicke, and Larsen (C) all hitting free agency. Like you said, Heinicke is getting at least $10M, if not more like $15M-$20M, if he is going to be the starter. That would leave $10-15M left for every other position to be filled. The only way they can keep Payne is if they extend him with a cap friendly first year.

[AZ54]

1 hour ago, Mongo3451 said:

Payne is not the 3T.  Jonathan Allen is.

Maybe he should be?

https://www.sbnation.com/2018/3/28/17132626/nfl-draft-2018-daron-payne-breakdown

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2769384-daron-payne-nfl-draft-2018-scouting-report-for-washington-redskins-pick

 

"Da'Ron Payne is still developing as a pass-rusher but showed in the national title game that he can dominate interior linemen when allowed to penetrate. Payne has the strength, quickness and motor to attack when freed up but will also play smart team football."

[Mongo3451]

16 hours ago, AZ54 said:

Maybe he should be?

https://www.sbnation.com/2018/3/28/17132626/nfl-draft-2018-daron-payne-breakdown

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2769384-daron-payne-nfl-draft-2018-scouting-report-for-washington-redskins-pick

 

"Da'Ron Payne is still developing as a pass-rusher but showed in the national title game that he can dominate interior linemen when allowed to penetrate. Payne has the strength, quickness and motor to attack when freed up but will also play smart team football."

Maybe that's how we hook him?  There's also the possibility that Payne and Allen can play the 3 tech at the same time or alternate.

Edited January 29, 2023 by Mongo3451
Sentence structure...lol

[AZ54]

2 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

Maybe that's we him hook with.  There's also the possibility that Payne and Allen can play the 3 tech at the same time or alternate.

Possibly they could line them up in the same manner but he'll know Wash will use him the same way they have in the past.  I don't know how he was utilized but if he wants to be a pure 3-tech on each down and get upfield he'll likely want to go elsewhere.  

[killakrzydav]

It would be great ifoff the massive nose tackles like dude from Baylor could be paired with Payne

[Stinger226]

5 hours ago, killakrzydav said:

It would be great ifoff the massive nose tackles like dude from Baylor could be paired with Payne

Him or Mazi Smith is a large man that can be got in the second or 3 rd round. The problem that Washington has, they have 2 good DEs they have to sign back next year. I've never seen  a team pay top dollar for all 4 of the DL. They would have a ton of cap space in 4 players.