Top FA Targets

[AZ54]

1 hour ago, adam said:

That had a lot to do with Fields. Monty is solid, but it feels like they would've already extended him if they were going to bring him back. 

He is a career 3.9 YPC RB and in 2022 had a 4.0 average when Herbert led the league in YPC in the same offense. I wouldn't complain if they brought him back, but more for his work ethic than his performance on the field. 

Miles Sanders is a FA, and is coming from PHI where Cunningham came from. So it will be interesting to see the direction they go with this, or if they even address RB in free agency.

No to Miles Sanders.  I think he has some of the same vision problem Montgomery has at times.  While Sanders' 4.9ypc might look good behind that Oline, if he's an upgrade over Monty  he should have run for far more than 1269yds last year.  That's just 74yds per game.  Between those two I'd stick with the known and likely cheaper commodity.   

[Mongo3451]

1 hour ago, AZ54 said:

No to Miles Sanders.  I think he has some of the same vision problem Montgomery has at times.  While Sanders' 4.9ypc might look good behind that Oline, if he's an upgrade over Monty  he should have run for far more than 1269yds last year.  That's just 74yds per game.  Between those two I'd stick with the known and likely cheaper commodity.   

I'll go a step further.  No FA running backs.  The draft is very deep.  Keep bringing in fresh ones.

[Stinger226]

12 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

I'll go a step further.  No FA running backs.  The draft is very deep.  Keep bringing in fresh ones.

Yes, yes, yes.

[AZ54]

18 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

I'll go a step further.  No FA running backs.  The draft is very deep.  Keep bringing in fresh ones.

I agree.  Use the FA money to fix other positions.  

[DABEARSDABOMB]

19 hours ago, killakrzydav said:

Does anybody remember the last time homie ran away from someone to the end zone?  Im getting old and the memory aint what it used to be. I know a few years back he had a 80 yarder but homie isn't a threat. At all. Nobody is ever worried when dude gets the rock. Worst case scenario, the opposing D runs him down 16 yards downfield.

We are completely aligned. He is a really good dude, relatively durable, but he is the definition of "just a guy".  You shouldn't pay him much and we really should look to upgrade. He isn't explosive and he isn't a 3 dimensional threat that the Bears need.  I am fully on board with taking a shot at RB in draft (and am fine if they go relatively early presuming they get a bunch of draft capital via trade down(s).  

I suppose I can live with Monty if it is a short term deal and they are still taking another shot at an RB in the mid rounds (at latest) - but he isn't a different maker, he's just okay, and they should be in the  business of upgrading from okay at that position (and not tying up cap space there).  

Herbert is really good as a runner - but Monty is more 3 dimensional than Herbert which is why Herbert probably can't be elevated to full time starter (not a great blocker and a relatively weak wideout).  Fields needs someone who can help him trust taking the "layups". Having a good 3D running back will be such a weapon to Fields - both in terms of giving him an outlet, but also making it even more difficult for teams to decide what to do on run-option plays.  

And most importantly - that strong outlet will be massive in terms of limiting the hits that JF takes (cause having a dynamic outlet for "checkdowns" is going to make sure he gets rid of the ball faster / trusts doing it - which will be huge in keeping him healthy and his LT development).  

[AZ54]

https://trenchwarfare.substack.com/p/2023-ol-free-agency-rankings

[adam]

53 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

https://trenchwarfare.substack.com/p/2023-ol-free-agency-rankings

McGlinchey should be #2 behind Brown. He is my favorite based on his playing style. 

[Stinger226]

51 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

https://trenchwarfare.substack.com/p/2023-ol-free-agency-rankings

Great article. That tells me we are throwing money at J. James. Jacksonville only has 7 mil in cap space, which would make it hard to match a high offer. They are already paying Cam Robinson 22+ mil. Doubt They pay James the 13-14 mil he will command. Having a cheap LT puts us in play. Would love to see the IOL ratings, may have to trail website. 

[adam]

10 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

Great article. That tells me we are throwing money at J. James. Jacksonville only has 7 mil in cap space, which would make it hard to match a high offer. They are already paying Cam Robinson 22+ mil. Doubt They pay James the 13-14 mil he will command. Having a cheap LT puts us in play. Would love to see the IOL ratings, may have to trail website. 

Good call on cap, 49ers only have a little over $6M, so they can do the same with McGlinchey.

Are you talking about Jawaan Taylor? James who?

[Stinger226]

1 hour ago, adam said:

Good call on cap, 49ers only have a little over $6M, so they can do the same with McGlinchey.

Are you talking about Jawaan Taylor? James who?

You're right being 13 hours in he future, I just woke up. AZ showed a great article, everyone needs to look at.

[Stinger226]

23 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

For better or for worst, this is what I think Poles is doing.

Resigns Monty for 3 yr 19.5 mil

If Dremont Jones is to expensive, he signs Kyle Allen.

Signs McGary, he played under the OL coach.

Signs Ethan Pocic, doesn't wait for the growth of a rookie

Mooney and Claypool plays on the outside, signs Olamide Zaccheaus to compete with V Jones in the slot.

Signs Bobby Okereke.

Keeps Whitehair for one more year.

 

Because of more information, I have to change McGary  to Jawann Taylor.

[AZ54]

5 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

Because of more information, I have to change McGary  to Jawann Taylor.

That seems like the sweet spot on the value/performance curve.  Brown is likely going to ask for at least $2-4mil/yr more. 

OTC has Taylor valued at $13mil/yr,  Spotrac has him at $14mil/yr.  

OTC has Brown valued at $12.5mil/yr, Spotrac has him at $22mil/yr

(link in case I forgot how to read big numbers:  https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs/orlando-brown-jr-25182/market-value/ )

That's a wild disparity for Brown but you can bet he'll be asking for the $22mil version.  The difference is more than enough to sign Pocic who has value around $5mil/yr at OTC plus have change leftover.  

Scanning all the FA Centers at OTC just a simple valuation ranking it is Pocic at $5mil/yr and then a couple guys around $3mil/yr with the rest under $2mil/yr.   Trying to figure out where to put resources Center seems like a single FA option which makes me think Poles will lean toward them trying to fix that via the draft and secure the known commodity vet RT.  

Doing the same valuation review for LG shows Ben Powers at nearly $10mil/yr, followed by Dalton Risner at $5mil/yr.  Isaac Seumalo has no valuation on OTC. 

I don't know if Ben Powers fits our scheme.  His draft profile from 2019 says he's lacks good lateral movement skills.  I can't imagine that's better in 2023. 

OTOH Dalton Risner can move better as per his draft profile (as OT) although there are still some limitations.   Oddly his draft comparison was Cody Whitehair.   Supply and demand will likely put Risner over $5mil/yr but cutting Whitehair would net us $4mil in cap space.  Risner would also not be so cost prohibitive long term if we were to draft an OG early like Mauch/Avila to play Center.  Just in case those guys ended up not being a good fit at C.   Cutting Patrick as well would completely negate the cap hit from signing Risner.   

I have no clue how Risner's performance compares to Whitehair.  I'm not saying this is something we should do, just that it could be a path forward to get a bit younger and cheaper on the Oline until we get our draft picks ready to take over.  Call him a "bridge" LG if you want.  

[Stinger226]

1 hour ago, AZ54 said:

That seems like the sweet spot on the value/performance curve.  Brown is likely going to ask for at least $2-4mil/yr more. 

OTC has Taylor valued at $13mil/yr,  Spotrac has him at $14mil/yr.  

OTC has Brown valued at $12.5mil/yr, Spotrac has him at $22mil/yr

(link in case I forgot how to read big numbers:  https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs/orlando-brown-jr-25182/market-value/ )

That's a wild disparity for Brown but you can bet he'll be asking for the $22mil version.  The difference is more than enough to sign Pocic who has value around $5mil/yr at OTC plus have change leftover.  

Scanning all the FA Centers at OTC just a simple valuation ranking it is Pocic at $5mil/yr and then a couple guys around $3mil/yr with the rest under $2mil/yr.   Trying to figure out where to put resources Center seems like a single FA option which makes me think Poles will lean toward them trying to fix that via the draft and secure the known commodity vet RT.  

Doing the same valuation review for LG shows Ben Powers at nearly $10mil/yr, followed by Dalton Risner at $5mil/yr.  Isaac Seumalo has no valuation on OTC. 

I don't know if Ben Powers fits our scheme.  His draft profile from 2019 says he's lacks good lateral movement skills.  I can't imagine that's better in 2023. 

OTOH Dalton Risner can move better as per his draft profile (as OT) although there are still some limitations.   Oddly his draft comparison was Cody Whitehair.   Supply and demand will likely put Risner over $5mil/yr but cutting Whitehair would net us $4mil in cap space.  Risner would also not be so cost prohibitive long term if we were to draft an OG early like Mauch/Avila to play Center.  Just in case those guys ended up not being a good fit at C.   Cutting Patrick as well would completely negate the cap hit from signing Risner.   

I have no clue how Risner's performance compares to Whitehair.  I'm not saying this is something we should do, just that it could be a path forward to get a bit younger and cheaper on the Oline until we get our draft picks ready to take over.  Call him a "bridge" LG if you want.  

If they wait and plan on getting rid of Whitehair next yr ,  with new teammates, might as well do tit this year, so line can grow together.. A post June 1 cut nets 9.9 in additional cap space . put Jones and Jenkins with vets Dalton Risner, Ethan Pocic and Jawan Taylor .  Draft a Steve Avila to take over at IOL if someone fails. Draft a Wanya Morris to groom for OT. Line finished.

[Stinger226]

14 hours ago, AZ54 said:

https://trenchwarfare.substack.com/p/2023-ol-free-agency-rankings

I signed up for trench warfare. Ill see if I can link it for everyone to see. He has Taylor as the highest rated RT and Dalton Risner as the second best LG. Pocic is the second best OC available. Bozeman is first but said will stay in Carolina. If we signed those 3 its not going to be a top 5 OL but could get to the tip half of the league.

[Mongo3451]

6 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

I signed up for trench warfare. Ill see if I can link it for everyone to see. He has Taylor as the highest rated RT and Dalton Risner as the second best LG. Pocic is the second best OC available. Bozeman is first but said will stay in Carolina. If we signed those 3 its not going to be a top 5 OL but could get to the tip half of the league.

Out of that, sign Taylor and Pocic, then draft another C and G.

[Stinger226]

17 hours ago, AZ54 said:

That seems like the sweet spot on the value/performance curve.  Brown is likely going to ask for at least $2-4mil/yr more. 

OTC has Taylor valued at $13mil/yr,  Spotrac has him at $14mil/yr.  

OTC has Brown valued at $12.5mil/yr, Spotrac has him at $22mil/yr

(link in case I forgot how to read big numbers:  https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs/orlando-brown-jr-25182/market-value/ )

That's a wild disparity for Brown but you can bet he'll be asking for the $22mil version.  The difference is more than enough to sign Pocic who has value around $5mil/yr at OTC plus have change leftover.  

Scanning all the FA Centers at OTC just a simple valuation ranking it is Pocic at $5mil/yr and then a couple guys around $3mil/yr with the rest under $2mil/yr.   Trying to figure out where to put resources Center seems like a single FA option which makes me think Poles will lean toward them trying to fix that via the draft and secure the known commodity vet RT.  

Doing the same valuation review for LG shows Ben Powers at nearly $10mil/yr, followed by Dalton Risner at $5mil/yr.  Isaac Seumalo has no valuation on OTC. 

I don't know if Ben Powers fits our scheme.  His draft profile from 2019 says he's lacks good lateral movement skills.  I can't imagine that's better in 2023. 

OTOH Dalton Risner can move better as per his draft profile (as OT) although there are still some limitations.   Oddly his draft comparison was Cody Whitehair.   Supply and demand will likely put Risner over $5mil/yr but cutting Whitehair would net us $4mil in cap space.  Risner would also not be so cost prohibitive long term if we were to draft an OG early like Mauch/Avila to play Center.  Just in case those guys ended up not being a good fit at C.   Cutting Patrick as well would completely negate the cap hit from signing Risner.   

I have no clue how Risner's performance compares to Whitehair.  I'm not saying this is something we should do, just that it could be a path forward to get a bit younger and cheaper on the Oline until we get our draft picks ready to take over.  Call him a "bridge" LG if you want.  

Trench warfare has Seumalo ranked as solid starter, next Risner. Powers is ranked as below average starter at 6_th IOL.

[AZ54]

13 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

I signed up for trench warfare. Ill see if I can link it for everyone to see. He has Taylor as the highest rated RT and Dalton Risner as the second best LG. Pocic is the second best OC available. Bozeman is first but said will stay in Carolina. If we signed those 3 its not going to be a top 5 OL but could get to the tip half of the league.

Me too.  

[AZ54]

1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:

Trench warfare has Seumalo ranked as solid starter, next Risner. Powers is ranked as below average starter at 6_th IOL.

We have the inside scoop on Seumalo with Ian Cunningham.   

[Stinger226]

On 3/9/2023 at 6:10 AM, adam said:

Good call on cap, 49ers only have a little over $6M, so they can do the same with McGlinchey.

Are you talking about Jawaan Taylor? James who?

Read a lot of stuff on McGlinchey . Can't handle speed or power rushers. Because of Trent Williams on the left side, they always gave McG help, it made him not noticeable at being bad. The rookie Robinson beat him twice in his first game against SF. 

[Pixote]

5 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

Read a lot of stuff on McGlinchey . Can't handle speed or power rushers. Because of Trent Williams on the left side, they always gave McG help, it made him not noticeable at being bad. The rookie Robinson beat him twice in his first game against SF. 

So then I read this and cringe. This writer thinks McG is our target in FA.

Buzz building around Mike McGlinchey being a top target for Bears in free agency

[Stinger226]

28 minutes ago, Pixote said:

So then I read this and cringe. This writer thinks McG is our target in FA.

Buzz building around Mike McGlinchey being a top target for Bears in free agency

That's just a sports journalist's opinion, they have no inside information. No way Poles is targeting McG, not at a big contract anyway. McGary is a little better but also needed help all the time. It's about money. Taylor is the only one that merits a big contract but that's not  a sure thing. At least he excels in pass protection. He may surprise us with a small contract for Andre Dillard and then draft RT to fight for a starter spot. He's going to not over pay for mediocre talent.

[Stinger226]

https://247sports.com/nfl/chicago-bears/ContentGallery/Aaron-Lemings-Chicago-Bears-2023-mock-offseason-206017430/

This is an off-season mock by Aaron Fleming. I like most of it , not McG for RT thou. 

[AZ54]

On 3/8/2023 at 5:30 PM, Stinger226 said:

Because of more information, I have to change McGary  to Jawann Taylor.

But wait there's more... 

https://www.si.com/nfl/bears/news/free-agent-players-who-fit-bears-needs

Pro Football Focus might have faults but does a better job than any other independent source of grading off film, particularly on the offensive line. And last year they graded 81 tackles in the NFL. Taylor finished dead last as a run blocker, 81st. Even though he was highly ranked as a pass blocker, signing the worst run blocker in the league at right tackle for a run-oriented offense seems to defeat the purpose of free agency.

[Pixote]

15 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

But wait there's more... 

https://www.si.com/nfl/bears/news/free-agent-players-who-fit-bears-needs

Pro Football Focus might have faults but does a better job than any other independent source of grading off film, particularly on the offensive line. And last year they graded 81 tackles in the NFL. Taylor finished dead last as a run blocker, 81st. Even though he was highly ranked as a pass blocker, signing the worst run blocker in the league at right tackle for a run-oriented offense seems to defeat the purpose of free agency.

Gads! So we have a lot of writers predicting McG for the Bears who is a good run blocker but bad in pass pro. Or we could have Taylor who is good in pass pro but sucks at run blocking. I give up. Grab O Brown, pay him the big bucks to play LOT, move Braxon to ROT. Pick up a solid ROG & OC.

Then trade back with the goal of max picks in top 100 and draft JSN to match up with Justin.

The draft is deep in the trenches. I trust Poles to do his job with the extra draft capitol to fill any holes that need to be addressed.

[Stinger226]

4 hours ago, AZ54 said:

But wait there's more... 

https://www.si.com/nfl/bears/news/free-agent-players-who-fit-bears-needs

Pro Football Focus might have faults but does a better job than any other independent source of grading off film, particularly on the offensive line. And last year they graded 81 tackles in the NFL. Taylor finished dead last as a run blocker, 81st. Even though he was highly ranked as a pass blocker, signing the worst run blocker in the league at right tackle for a run-oriented offense seems to defeat the purpose of free agency.

I read he wasn't A good run blocker but that grading blows up my ( go out and sign) Taylor comment. That only leaves bringing in Brown in free agency even at 22 mil a year.