Playoff Scenarios

[adam]

In the NFC, only one division essentially up for grabs. PHI, MIN, SF are already in with DAL as the WC1.

NFC South
1. TB 7-8 (CAR, ATL) wins out or wins 1 and CAR and NO lose 1 each.
2. CAR 6-9 (TB, @NO) needs to win out
3. NO 6-9 (@PHI, CAR) needs to win out and have TB lose 2
Week 17 TB vs CAR is basically for the Division title. If CAR wins, they have the tie breaker against TB and NO.

NFC Wild Card
2. NYG 8-6-1 (IND, @PHI) - needs to win of 1 of 2 to get in.
3. WAS 7-7-1 (CLE, DAL) - needs to win out, or win 1 and have SEA, DET, and GB all lose one game each.
---------------
4. SEA 7-8 (NYJ, LAR)  - needs to win out and have WAS to lose 1 of the last two games, or NYG to lose their last two. 
5. DET 7-8 (CHI, @GB) - needs to win out and have SEA and WAS to lose 1 of the last two games. 
6. GB 7-8 (MIN, DET) - needs to win out and have SEA and WAS to lose 1 of the last two games.
DET @GB Week 18 may be for a WC spot if SEA and WAS lose one game each, DET beats CHI, and GB beats MIA and MIN. 

In the AFC, only one division up for grabs as well. KC, BUF, and CIN are already in with BAL as the WC1.

AFC South
1. JAX 7-8 (@HOU, TEN) controls own destiny in the division, win the last two and they are in. 
2. TEN 7-8 (DAL, @JAX) needs to win out and have JAX lose one to get in, or win one have have JAX lose last two.
Regardless of the outcome of Week 17, Week 18 will decide the division. Win and they are in.

AFC Wild Card
2. LAC 8-6 (@IND, LAR, @DEN) - needs to win 2 of 3 or 1 win and 1 loss from NE, NYJ, TEN, and PIT
3. MIA 8-7 (@NE, NYJ) - needs to win 2 or win one and NE, NYJ, TEN, and PIT all need to lose one.
-----------------------------
4. NE 7-8 (MIA, @BUF) - need to win last 2 and have LAC or MIA lose remaining games
5. NYJ 7-8 (@SEA, @MIA) - need to win last 2 and have 2 of the following happen: LAC loses out, MIA loses out, NE only wins 1 of 2.
6. TEN 7-8 (DAL, @JAX) - need to win last 2 and have 3 of the following happen: LAC loses out, MIA loses out, NE only wins 1 of 2, NYJ wins 1 of 2.
7. PIT 7-8 (@BAL, CLE) - need to win last 2 and have 4 of the following happen: LAC loses out, MIA loses out, NE only wins 1 of 2, NYJ wins 1 of 2, TEN only wins 1 of 2.

[adam]

Tua won't play due another concussion, which makes for a crazy Week 17 game in NE.

Titans playing Willis, Jets now going back to White, WAS considering Wentz, and CAR is basically winning without a QB or McCaffrey is pretty impressive.

[adam]

Which teams on the cusp of missing the playoffs would be the most unexpected to not make it? To me it has to be MIA, TEN, or TB.

Just a few weeks ago, I would've thought TEN and MIA were locks. TEN has lost 5 straight and MIA has lost 4. TB has a one game lead but can still lose the division if CAR wins their last two (one against TB). 

I always thought SEA and NYJ would fade. I also expected NYG to drop but they have hung in there. JAX's rising is just as shocking as MIA's fall. 

[AZ54]

You were right, Seattle has faded but then two of their division rivals faded faster leaving them still in the playoff mix.  Sitting at 7-8 isn't concerning to any serious playoff contender and if the Cards and the Rams had performed anywhere close to expectations we'd be saying Seattle ended up as expected.     

[adam]

Besides seeding, there are 3 playoff spots left going into Week 18. The AFC South Champ, AFC Wildcard #3, and NFC Wildcard #3.

1. TEN @ JAX is basically the AFC South Championship game, the winner is in. Pretty cool scheduling there.
2. NE, MIA, PIT all 8-8, only one gets in. NE@BUF, NYJ@MIA, and CLE@PIT. There is also a weird scenario where JAX loses and NE, MIA, and PIT all lose, JAX gets in with TEN as Division champ.  NE is win and in or losses by both MIA and PIT, MIA needs a win and NE to lose. PIT needs a win and for both MIA and NE to lose.
3. GB, DET, SEA all 8-8, only one gets in. DET@GB, LAR@SEA. GB is now win and in vs DET. Another nice scheduling by the NFL. DET needs a win and a SEA loss. SEA needs a win and GB loss. 

Just based on the early odds, JAX wins the division, MIA gets in as the WC3 (NE loses, PIT wins), and unfortunately GB is favored against DET, while SEA wins but misses playoffs. 

It looks like JAX, BUF, MIA, PIT, GB, and SEA are all favored to win.

I would love to see DET and SEA win to get SEA into the playoffs instead of DET or GB. That would be a comical ending for both Rodgers and DET. Detroit beats GB but still doesn't get in. That is their luck. We know it all too well.

[adam]

I am glad Hamlin is recovering, that was crazy. 

The AFC playoff stuff with the canceled game is also wild. Baltimore could beat the Bengals twice but because of the lost game, they would need a coin flip to get a home game, when it should be theirs outright. If really feels like they blundered this. They could've easily had BUF-CIN finish their game, then started the AFC playoffs the following weekend. This option just didn't make sense to me. Teams that didn't even play in that game are impacted by the decision.

In general, it seems like a bunch of teams are resting starters, some for the playoffs, some for other reasons *cough* tank *cough*. So there is a chance a team like Denver wins, or even Houston, which would be epic for the Bears. Lovie needs to give us one more on his way out. Go Texans!

Of course GB gets the best deal, playing after the Seattle game, so Detroit will know if they have a shot at the playoffs or not before the game. I can't see Detroit winning if Seattle wins and Detroit has nothing to play for. I know Campbell is a bite your kneecaps kinda guy, but nothing is worse than playing that last game of the season when you know you have no shot at the playoffs. Most guys are just trying to avoid injury the entire game. ARob was the king of this. 

 

It feels like KC or CIN are the most consistent teams in the AFC and PHI and SF in the NFC. I am curious to see how far SF can get with Purdy at QB. It feels like he is going to let them down at some point. My guess is PHI vs KC in the SB with PHI winning it.

 

[AZ54]

Detroit is on the way up even if they are out of the playoffs you can expect them to play to win.  They are trying to set the tone for 2023 against a division rival.  

[adam]

OK, yesterday could not finish any better. The Bears got the 1st overall pick in the draft, both DET and GB miss the playoffs, and Erin Rodgers' last throw is an interception.
 

Here is the playoff schedule for next weekend, KC and PHI have the byes:

SEA@SF (I assume SF will use this as a partial bye week) - SF (felt like a blowout from the 1Q)

NYG@MIN (Both teams have a negative pts differential - Loser Bowl?) - MIN

DAL@TB (DAL lost to WAS this week and lost out on a home playoff game) - DAL

 

MIA@BUF (will Tua play, split season series, both games decided by 3pts or less) - BUF

BAL@CIN (rematch from Week 18, will Lamar play?) - CIN

LAC@JAX (LAC lost to JAX 38-10 in Week 3) - JAX (JAX wins despite 4 INTs from TLaw)

[adam]

Feel like MIN, BUF, CIN, and DAL for the next 4 games. Even though DAL has played bad of late, they have had a tougher road to the playoffs than TB. CIN and BUF are sure bets. MIN feels like the stronger team at home, but will Cousins choke in prime time?

[Mongo3451]

On 1/9/2023 at 7:19 AM, adam said:

LAC@JAX (LAC lost to JAX 38-10 in Week 3) - JAX (JAX wins despite 4 INTs from TLaw)

Trevor balled out when they needed it.  Stud performance!  I want that from Justin.

[adam]

Roquan had a great first quarter, then disappeared, got juked by Burrow for an easy sack and got blocked off the field on another play. For 20M a year, I would have expected more impact plays. 

Vikings frauds again, Jefferson a ghost the last 3 weeks. 

[killakrzydav]

I’m glad we didn’t pay smith. He’sa player but lb production is easier to replace

[adam]

56 minutes ago, killakrzydav said:

I’m glad we didn’t pay smith. He’sa player but lb production is easier to replace

Yep, 20M, he still hasn't even sniffed one of Leonard's great years. Outside of tackles, there is not much else there.

[adam]

The Vikings losing was awesome. They were something like 11-0 in one score games this year and lost by 1 score lol. Cousins throws short of the sticks on a 4th down to end the game is priceless.  I can't imagine what that guy would look like without a stacked receiving corps. 

[adam]

DAL vs TB should be a good one tonight. It will come down to which Dak shows up. If good Dak shows up, the Boys win, if bad Dak shows up the Bucs win.

[Stinger226]

10 minutes ago, adam said:

Yep, 20M, he still hasn't even sniffed one of Leonard's great years. Outside of tackles, there is not much else there.

I agree, he doesn't make enough wow plays to merit being the highest paid off LB. If Sanborn plays the whole yr, I think his stats will be similar to Roquan at under 1 mil. I think Poles knows what he's doing around a draft table. He got 5 starters out of his first draft W/O a first round pick.

[AZ54]

1 hour ago, adam said:

The Vikings losing was awesome. They were something like 11-0 in one score games this year and lost by 1 score lol. Cousins throws short of the sticks on a 4th down to end the game is priceless.  I can't imagine what that guy would look like without a stacked receiving corps. 

Kirk Cousins throwing for 3 yards on 4th and 8 to a guy who was covered was epic (failure).  Add the Vikings to teams looking for a QB.  They are stuck for another year with Cousins and they have -$19mil in cap space, so at best this offseason they find a retread vet to compete.  Even that seems unlikely as those guys usually can command at least $10mil in one year deal. 

  Watching Ed Donatell's defense with numerous ex-Bears on the field struggle against a mediocre Giants offense was equally entertaining.  Their entire roster has peeked with several key players over 30 yr old.   The trade for TJ Hockenson and giving up their 2nd Rd pick this year looks horrendous now.  Their GM went all-in thinking this was his year instead of knowing his roster shortcomings and age and planning for the future.  

[Alaskan Grizzly]

2 hours ago, adam said:

 

The Vikings losing was awesome

 

And to add insult to injury, so far the only home team to have lost at home (to include Jax).  Save the SF game all the playoff games so far have been pretty decent.

All four of the NFC North teams are now sitting on the couch together watching the rest of the playoffs.  And if you ask me, the Bears and Detroit are in the best position going forward.  

[adam]

22 hours ago, AZ54 said:

Kirk Cousins throwing for 3 yards on 4th and 8 to a guy who was covered was epic (failure).  Add the Vikings to teams looking for a QB.  They are stuck for another year with Cousins and they have -$19mil in cap space, so at best this offseason they find a retread vet to compete.  Even that seems unlikely as those guys usually can command at least $10mil in one year deal. 

  Watching Ed Donatell's defense with numerous ex-Bears on the field struggle against a mediocre Giants offense was equally entertaining.  Their entire roster has peeked with several key players over 30 yr old.   The trade for TJ Hockenson and giving up their 2nd Rd pick this year looks horrendous now.  Their GM went all-in thinking this was his year instead of knowing his roster shortcomings and age and planning for the future.  

they gave up a 2nd AND a 3rd for Hockenson. They did get a 4th back, but still, a 2nd and a 3rd for a TE when you already have a high volume passing game with Jefferson, Thielen, and Osborn. He has a 9.3M cap hit in 2023 and is then a FA in 2024. So this was either a 1.5 year rental or a deal where they are going to have to commit $10M+ to the TE position when they are about to have to pay Jefferson the most money for a WR in NFL history.

[AZ54]

2 hours ago, adam said:

they gave up a 2nd AND a 3rd for Hockenson. They did get a 4th back, but still, a 2nd and a 3rd for a TE when you already have a high volume passing game with Jefferson, Thielen, and Osborn. He has a 9.3M cap hit in 2023 and is then a FA in 2024. So this was either a 1.5 year rental or a deal where they are going to have to commit $10M+ to the TE position when they are about to have to pay Jefferson the most money for a WR in NFL history.

That hurts so much I can’t stop laughing.  

[adam]

16 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

That hurts so much I can’t stop laughing.  

Yeah, I love teams that get a ton of praise by the media but if you really look at them under the hood, it is all a facade. Indy is a great example, Chris Ballard was getting slurped on for drafting Quentin Nelson and had one good draft. The Colts have basically done nothing under his tenure as GM and are in one of the weakest divisions in football. This is the 8th year since they last won the division. So if they go two more (likely with JAX and TEN now), that will be a decade since their last division title when there are only 3 other teams in the division. 

Minnesota is another one. No one talks about their great 2022 Draft, the first of new GM Kwesi. I think Poles would be fired already if he had a draft like this (with a 1st and 2x 2nd round picks). Have you heard of any of these guys do anything this year? Probably not, because they didn't:

1    Lewis Cine    32    DB (probably a career ending injury on punt return coverage)
2    Andrew Booth    42    CB (12 total tackles)
2    Ed Ingram    59    G (57.1 PFF, 11 sacks allowed, 17 games)
3    Brian Asamoah    66    LB (17 total tackles, 1 FF)
4    Akayleb Evans    118    DB (23 total tackles, 1 FF, 3 TFL, 1 PD)
5    Esezi Otomewo    165    DT (5 total tackles, 1 TFL)
5    Ty Chandler    169    RB (6 rushes for 20 yards)
6    Vederian Lowe    184    OL (33 offensive snaps)
6    Jalen Nailor    191    WR (9-179, 1 TD)
7    Nick Muse    227    TE    (no offensive stats)

So out of 10 draft picks and 4 in the top 66, they had one starter (Ingram), who was slightly under average at best. Brisker alone was better than all these guys combined. We don't even need to mention Braxton Jones or Gordon. Velus would probably be the Vikings 2nd best draft pick behind Ingram. 

 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

On 1/16/2023 at 8:54 AM, AZ54 said:

Add the Vikings to teams looking for a QB

And just like that the remaining QBs in the playoffs have all been in the league for 7 years or less (Dak Prescott being the most senior).  6 of them are 1st round picks (Prescott 2016, Mahomes, 2017, Allen 2018, Jones 2019,  Burrow 2020 and Lawrence 2021).  One was drafted in the 2nd round (Hurts - 2020) and one was drafted dead last this year (Purdy = "Mr Irrelevant" 2022).    

[AZ54]

28 minutes ago, adam said:

Yeah, I love teams that get a ton of praise by the media but if you really look at them under the hood, it is all a facade. Indy is a great example, Chris Ballard was getting slurped on for drafting Quentin Nelson and had one good draft. The Colts have basically done nothing under his tenure as GM and are in one of the weakest divisions in football. This is the 8th year since they last won the division. So if they go two more (likely with JAX and TEN now), that will be a decade since their last division title when there are only 3 other teams in the division. 

Minnesota is another one. No one talks about their great 2022 Draft, the first of new GM Kwesi. I think Poles would be fired already if he had a draft like this (with a 1st and 2x 2nd round picks). Have you heard of any of these guys do anything this year? Probably not, because they didn't:

1    Lewis Cine    32    DB (probably a career ending injury on punt return coverage)
2    Andrew Booth    42    CB (12 total tackles)
2    Ed Ingram    59    G (57.1 PFF, 11 sacks allowed, 17 games)
3    Brian Asamoah    66    LB (17 total tackles, 1 FF)
4    Akayleb Evans    118    DB (23 total tackles, 1 FF, 3 TFL, 1 PD)
5    Esezi Otomewo    165    DT (5 total tackles, 1 TFL)
5    Ty Chandler    169    RB (6 rushes for 20 yards)
6    Vederian Lowe    184    OL (33 offensive snaps)
6    Jalen Nailor    191    WR (9-179, 1 TD)
7    Nick Muse    227    TE    (no offensive stats)

So out of 10 draft picks and 4 in the top 66, they had one starter (Ingram), who was slightly under average at best. Brisker alone was better than all these guys combined. We don't even need to mention Braxton Jones or Gordon. Velus would probably be the Vikings 2nd best draft pick behind Ingram. 

 

We should give them a break, it's not like that was the deepest draft in a decade.   They also have some vets ahead of guys like Asamoah.  

I really liked Lewis Cine and hope he gets back on the field in full health.   

[Stinger226]

6 hours ago, adam said:

Yeah, I love teams that get a ton of praise by the media but if you really look at them under the hood, it is all a facade. Indy is a great example, Chris Ballard was getting slurped on for drafting Quentin Nelson and had one good draft. The Colts have basically done nothing under his tenure as GM and are in one of the weakest divisions in football. This is the 8th year since they last won the division. So if they go two more (likely with JAX and TEN now), that will be a decade since their last division title when there are only 3 other teams in the division. 

Minnesota is another one. No one talks about their great 2022 Draft, the first of new GM Kwesi. I think Poles would be fired already if he had a draft like this (with a 1st and 2x 2nd round picks). Have you heard of any of these guys do anything this year? Probably not, because they didn't:

1    Lewis Cine    32    DB (probably a career ending injury on punt return coverage)
2    Andrew Booth    42    CB (12 total tackles)
2    Ed Ingram    59    G (57.1 PFF, 11 sacks allowed, 17 games)
3    Brian Asamoah    66    LB (17 total tackles, 1 FF)
4    Akayleb Evans    118    DB (23 total tackles, 1 FF, 3 TFL, 1 PD)
5    Esezi Otomewo    165    DT (5 total tackles, 1 TFL)
5    Ty Chandler    169    RB (6 rushes for 20 yards)
6    Vederian Lowe    184    OL (33 offensive snaps)
6    Jalen Nailor    191    WR (9-179, 1 TD)
7    Nick Muse    227    TE    (no offensive stats)

So out of 10 draft picks and 4 in the top 66, they had one starter (Ingram), who was slightly under average at best. Brisker alone was better than all these guys combined. We don't even need to mention Braxton Jones or Gordon. Velus would probably be the Vikings 2nd best draft pick behind Ingram. 

 

To be fair, Cine injury wasn't planned, and most rookies don't shine in the first year. Its an incomplete but it does say a lot about Poles getting 5 starters out of his first draft with no first rounders.

[Mongo3451]

39 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

Its an incomplete but it does say a lot about Poles getting 5 starters out of his first draft with no first rounders.

We should also ask, how many of those five would've been starters if drafted elsewhere?