Playoff Scenarios

[adam]

11 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

We should also ask, how many of those five would've been starters if drafted elsewhere?  

Brisker, Jones, Gordon, and Gill for sure.  Robinson would make the 53-man on several teams and Velus was a top 10 KR guy. Then you also have to look at UDFA and Sanborn.

I just like that Poles got rookie production out of his first 5 picks. You need to hit on at least 3 of those 5, and maybe 1 or 2 others to contribute. Poles hit on 4 of 5 with Jones being a big ST contributor.

[killakrzydav]

Poles drafted well. Most of us can agree on that. People complain about Velus but you can’t teach his blazing speed. We can teach him everything else. Have patience.

[adam]

I don't know if any of you guys watched the playoff games this weekend, but after watching them all, one thing was apparent. Fields is definitely an elite QB. I can't tell you how many plays he could've made that the losing QBs couldn't. He may not be at the level of Mahomes, Burrow, or Hurts yet, but I feel like he is better than the following guys:

Lawrence 24-39, 217 yds, 5.6 YA, 1 TD, 1 INT, 74.4 Rating, 3-26 Rushing - literally played dink and dunk football, then throws game ending INT. I feel like he is going to be a guy that puts up stats, beats bad teams, then loses in the playoffs. 

Allen 25-42, 59.5%, 265 yds, 6.3 Y/A, 0 TD, 1 INT, 68.1 Rating, 8-26, 1 TD Rushing - I have really soured on him, once they took away Diggs, Allen didn't look good. He is a huge boom or bust guy. 3x 75 yard bombs for TDs, or multiple INTs. Now I still think he is a top 10 QB, but I think he is out of the top 5 for me now. 

Prescott 23-37, 62.2%, 206 yds, 5.6 Y/A, 1 TD, 2 INT, 63.6 Rating, 4-22 Rushing - He should be called Dak Grossman. I have never seen a guy have a 4x TD game followed by a multiple INT game where he looks completely lost. Dallas has no choice to keep him, but this is Dallas' ceiling with him at QB.

Jones 15-27, 55.6%, 135 yds, 5.0 Y/A, 0 TD, 1 INT, 53.8 Rating, 6-24 Rushing - He had the game of his career against MIN, then everyone thought that was him after one game? Boy did he come back down to earth with one of the worst performances in Divisional Round playoff game in awhile. 135 passing yards is comical with over 25 passing attempts. He is a poor man's Josh Allen, only more conservative. They will never get past this point with him at QB. 

 

Now compare those numbers to what Fields did against the same Philly team Jones just played. Also consider the teams around those QBs:

Fields 14-21, 66.7%, 152 yds, 7.2 Y/A, 2 TD, 0 INT, 119.5 Rating, 15-95 Rushing 

 

 

[Mongo3451]

9 minutes ago, adam said:

Now compare those numbers to what Fields did against the same Philly team Jones just played. Also consider the teams around those QBs:

Fields 14-21, 66.7%, 152 yds, 7.2 Y/A, 2 TD, 0 INT, 119.5 Rating, 15-95 Rushing 

Please don't.  Justin Fields hasn't faced an amped up playoff defense.  It's not even close.

[adam]

45 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

Please don't.  Justin Fields hasn't faced an amped up playoff defense.  It's not even close.

I am doing it. These were the pass protection rankings for the teams that lost compared to what Fields was dealing with this year:

JAX - 3rd
DAL - 4th
BUF - 7th
NYG - 24th
CHI - 32nd

How about skill position players:

WR/TE/RB:

JAX - Kirk-Chark/ Engram/Etienne
DAL - Lamb-Gallup/Schultz/Zeke-Pollard
BUF - Diggs-Davis/Knox/Singletary
NYG - Slayton-James/Bellinger/Barkley

Herbert was the highest rated Bears offensive player but only had 6 games with more than 10 carries and only hit 20 carries once. Fields literally had no O-Line and Kmet and Herbert as the only above average offensive weapons. If you put Fields on any of those losing teams, he is significantly better. If you put those QBs on the Bears, and they are significantly worse. Can you imagine Daniel Jones on the Bears? 

[AZ54]

1 hour ago, Mongo3451 said:

Please don't.  Justin Fields hasn't faced an amped up playoff defense.  It's not even close.

Against an amped up playoff offense?    In sports it is always risky to compare game to game because players all have good days and bad days.  It is safe to state that Josh Allen and Dak Prescott were horrible in their respective games.  You could look at the stat line and say it wasn't so bad for Allen but watching him on the field he looked lost, passes were off target (very unlike him),  and had poor judgment at times throughout the game. 

It is also safe to say that good defenses won the day.   I enjoyed watching Dallas and the 49ers defenses get after it.  

[adam]

55 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

Against an amped up playoff offense?    In sports it is always risky to compare game to game because players all have good days and bad days.  It is safe to state that Josh Allen and Dak Prescott were horrible in their respective games.  You could look at the stat line and say it wasn't so bad for Allen but watching him on the field he looked lost, passes were off target (very unlike him),  and had poor judgment at times throughout the game. 

It is also safe to say that good defenses won the day.   I enjoyed watching Dallas and the 49ers defenses get after it.  

They were all pretty good games. Prescott has looked like that a lot. He missed 16 games over the last 3 years, but had 2 great seasons in between those years. You never know who you are going to get. At times it looks like he forgets how to play. 

[AZ54]

7 minutes ago, adam said:

They were all pretty good games. Prescott has looked like that a lot. He missed 16 games over the last 3 years, but had 2 great seasons in between those years. You never know who you are going to get. At times it looks like he forgets how to play. 

Jerry has to be wondering if he has the right QB.  There are a lot of championship caliber pieces on that roster.  

[Mongo3451]

3 hours ago, AZ54 said:

Against an amped up playoff offense? 

Are scores up or down for the playoffs?

[Mongo3451]

5 hours ago, adam said:

I am doing it. These were the pass protection rankings for the teams that lost compared to what Fields was dealing with this year:

JAX - 3rd
DAL - 4th
BUF - 7th
NYG - 24th
CHI - 32nd

How about skill position players:

WR/TE/RB:

JAX - Kirk-Chark/ Engram/Etienne
DAL - Lamb-Gallup/Schultz/Zeke-Pollard
BUF - Diggs-Davis/Knox/Singletary
NYG - Slayton-James/Bellinger/Barkley

Herbert was the highest rated Bears offensive player but only had 6 games with more than 10 carries and only hit 20 carries once. Fields literally had no O-Line and Kmet and Herbert as the only above average offensive weapons. If you put Fields on any of those losing teams, he is significantly better. If you put those QBs on the Bears, and they are significantly worse. Can you imagine Daniel Jones on the Bears? 

You do realize that the defenses slack off vs the Bears offense because they can.  No excuses this year for Justin, but if anyone thinks he is all that and a bag of chips is not objectively looking at the whole picture.  He is a below average throwing quarterback at this point in his career.

[adam]

53 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

Are scores up or down for the playoffs?

The average game score is 49.2 for these playoffs. The average for the regular season is 43.8. So scoring is up 5.4 pts. 

[adam]

50 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

You do realize that the defenses slack off vs the Bears offense because they can.  No excuses this year for Justin, but if anyone thinks he is all that and a bag of chips is not objectively looking at the whole picture.  He is a below average throwing quarterback at this point in his career.

Maybe in Week 18, when no one was playing, but players don't slack off on the Bears offense because they can, come on now. The Bears were in a ton of games this year, and it wasn't because defenses were slacking off against them. Just read all the quotes from other team's defenders and coaches. The only guy they were concerned about was Fields, and he still gashed them. 

Does he need to improve as a passer, absolutely, but he only passed the ball 318 times. So it is hard to just look at raw numbers like totals because they don't tell the whole story. Look at other QBs that hard similar attempts:

• Fields threw for 2242 yards, 17 TDs, and 11 INTs with those 318 attempts
• Lamar Jackson had 326 attempts, and had the same amount of yards, 2242, 17 TDs, and 7 INTs
• Stafford had 303 attempts, 2087 yards, 10 TD, 8 INTs 
• Mariota, 300 attempts, 2219 yards, 15 TD, 9 INTs

Just as a passer, he is in line with other QBs with the same number of attempts throwing to Mooney, Pringle, Pettis, and ESB. 

[Mongo3451]

6 minutes ago, adam said:

Maybe in Week 18, when no one was playing, but players don't slack off on the Bears offense because they can, come on now. The Bears were in a ton of games this year, and it wasn't because defenses were slacking off against them. Just read all the quotes from other team's defenders and coaches. The only guy they were concerned about was Fields, and he still gashed them. 

That's why, in so many games, we competed in the first half.  Second half comes and things get tighter.  Bears lose.

[Mongo3451]

19 minutes ago, adam said:

The average game score is 49.2 for these playoffs. The average for the regular season is 43.8. So scoring is up 5.4 pts. 

Under 40 this past weekend.  Things get tighter when the cream rises to the top.

[BearFan PHX]

16 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

Under 40 this past weekend.  Things get tighter when the cream rises to the top.

I was just saying this this weekend - even with all the rules changes to help the offense, when you get to the top levels, and the games really matter, the defenses can still take over a game.

Looking at YOU Roquan, ya fake.

[AZ54]

1 hour ago, Mongo3451 said:

Are scores up or down for the playoffs?

Likely down but I don't know the history of playoff scores.  I just think that's simply because a little more talent resides on the defensive side of the ball this year.  For SF and Dallas it is their strength.  Eagles have a good D but also played a flawed Giants offense.  I wouldn't say it's because the D are more amped up than the O.  If any NFL player isn't amped up for a playoff game they don't belong on the field.  OTOH you have a rookie QB in SF who did nothing in the redzone. 

That doesn't explain Buffalo's 10pts and I don't think anyone is worried about facing the Bengals defense.  It felt like they didn't even go down swinging.  That loss will burn all offseason.  

Do players study and prepare better before a playoff game vs a game against the 3 win Bears?   Of course they do.  

[adam]

Who do you got this weekend?

SF @ PHI?  I am going PHI 27-24 in a close one.

CIN @ KC? I am going CIN in an upset 24-23. It is going to be in the low 20s with a wind chill in the teens for the game. CIN has a better running game which I think will be the difference.

 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

1 hour ago, adam said:

Who do you got this weekend?

SF @ PHI?  I am going PHI 27-24 in a close one.

CIN @ KC? I am going CIN in an upset 24-23. It is going to be in the low 20s with a wind chill in the teens for the game. CIN has a better running game which I think will be the difference.

 

I don't completely believe in Philly's offense against SFs defense.  And oddly enough Purdy hasn't proven he can't handle anyone in the NFL yet.  Edge goes to SF because of the coaches and a guy named Gould (in my estimation).  SF by at least three and probably because of last minute heroics of Gould.

And Cincy has a QB walking towards legendary status in Burrow.  Where Mahomes, who is legendary already, is dinged up.  A lot of what he does relies on his mobility and that will be affected.  I think it will be similar to when the Chiefs lost to TB in the Super bowl and KC's oline was all dinged up(?) Mahomes looked every bit the human in that game.  And I keep hearing that Cincy has beat KC three times in the last 12 months.  Can't see them not getting a fourth win.  Cincy by at least 7.  

[adam]

2 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

I don't completely believe in Philly's offense against SFs defense.  And oddly enough Purdy hasn't proven he can't handle anyone in the NFL yet.  Edge goes to SF because of the coaches and a guy named Gould (in my estimation).  SF by at least three and probably because of last minute heroics of Gould.

And Cincy has a QB walking towards legendary status in Burrow.  Where Mahomes, who is legendary already, is dinged up.  A lot of what he does relies on his mobility and that will be affected.  I think it will be similar to when the Chiefs lost to TB in the Super bowl and KC's oline was all dinged up(?) Mahomes looked every bit the human in that game.  And I keep hearing that Cincy has beat KC three times in the last 12 months.  Can't see them not getting a fourth win.  Cincy by at least 7.  

I was actually thinking about the SFvPHI game the other way around since PHI is at home. The SF offense only scored 19 pts, at home, and 6 pts came from Dak INTs, which was literally the difference in the game. PHI and DAL defenses are very similar.

Purdy had 214 yds passing and the leading rusher was Mitchell with 51 yds.

Now they are going to Philly from SF. They are also playing in the early time slot and PHI got an extra day rest. So SF has to travel from SF to PHI while PHI stays at home. That is basically another day. So Philly has two days extra on SF going into this game, and SF has to travel to the east coast. They played 3 games in the Central or Eastern Time Zone this season, and went 1-2 in those games. 

Either way, both games will feel like Super Bowls because any 4 of them can win the Super Bowl. I would be shocked if Purdy wins this one. He would be the steal of the draft if he does and maybe of all-time, Mr. Irrelevant takes a team to a Super Bowl, and maybe wins it? No way, it ends here.

As much as I marvel at Mahomes amazing and crazy throws, he seems to drop off more than others when not 100%. There is no way he is healed from a high ankle sprain. If he is healthy, KC wins, but with him hobbled, I will take CIN.

[AZ54]

4 hours ago, adam said:

I was actually thinking about the SFvPHI game the other way around since PHI is at home. The SF offense only scored 19 pts, at home, and 6 pts came from Dak INTs, which was literally the difference in the game. PHI and DAL defenses are very similar.

Purdy had 214 yds passing and the leading rusher was Mitchell with 51 yds.

Now they are going to Philly from SF. They are also playing in the early time slot and PHI got an extra day rest. So SF has to travel from SF to PHI while PHI stays at home. That is basically another day. So Philly has two days extra on SF going into this game, and SF has to travel to the east coast. They played 3 games in the Central or Eastern Time Zone this season, and went 1-2 in those games. 

Either way, both games will feel like Super Bowls because any 4 of them can win the Super Bowl. I would be shocked if Purdy wins this one. He would be the steal of the draft if he does and maybe of all-time, Mr. Irrelevant takes a team to a Super Bowl, and maybe wins it? No way, it ends here.

As much as I marvel at Mahomes amazing and crazy throws, he seems to drop off more than others when not 100%. There is no way he is healed from a high ankle sprain. If he is healthy, KC wins, but with him hobbled, I will take CIN.

I'm with you here.  Purdy's struggles in the redzone last week will only be magnified on the road.  Hurts has the Oline to handle SF edge rushers, and the speed to make them pay if they can't.  From what I've seen Hurts is also more composed in the pocket than Dak, at least the version of Dak we saw last week.    Philly by 7. 

Cincy beats KC on the road.  I don't care about Mahomes having a full practice this week there is no pass rush to avoid.  His magic is largely dependent on his ability to buy time outside the pocket.  That won't stop the KC offense, and he should be able to move around and even get outside the pocket a bit, but his clock is going to working a tick faster than he wants it to.  He needs to avoid forcing things when plays breakdown.  

 

[adam]

So it is KC vs PHI for the Super Bowl. I would've rather seen CIN vs PHI, but this is still a great game. 

KC feels much weaker than previous years, especially without Hill. Outside of Kelce, they don't have any other dominant skill players. KC's leading rusher was Pacheco with 830 yds. Their leading WR was JuJu with 933 yds. Average at best.

Kelce was really the only dominant weapon with 12 TDs and 1338 yds. If I am Philly, I am taking him out of the game. 26% of Mahomes completions are to Kelce and 30% of his TDs. That is a huge chunk of the offense. 

Philly will be coming into this game with 2 fairly easy games. I feel like they have the better team, so the game will come down to which Mahomes shows up. I am going 30-24 Philly. 

SF vs PHI
SF and Shanahan choke again, this is a trend. He has too much of a track record of shitting his pants in big moments. How do you not challenge the 4th down play to Smith? It was too close of a call and too big of a play (biggest play of the game and on 4th down) not to challenge. Right after the play I was expecting the flag to get thrown out there instantly, or at least before Philly got off another play and Shanahan. 

A lot of people will come to his defense saying Purdy got hurt, but they left a TE on Reddick who had 16 sacks this season. Purdy doesn't get hit like that with an OT blocking him. 

CIN vs KC
I didn't like the end to the KC game, the refs were calling penalties on the Bengals and not calling the same things on KC. A huge hold on the Mahomes run would've at least negated the 15yd penalty and that play would've been replayed. The punt return that got them there, they missed a blatant block in the back. The 15-yard penalty was a terrible play, but Fields got hit like that at least 3 times this season without that call. That still needs to change. 

 

One thing I noticed in all the games, Fields is faster than all these QBs. If he can improve as a passer, he is going to be dangerous.

[killakrzydav]

Field is only slower that Jackson. The only qb quicker than fields is Murray.

 He regularly runs away from cbs man. I’ll go out on a limb and say he’s one of the top thirty fastest guys in the league offense or defense

[adam]

1 hour ago, killakrzydav said:

Field is only slower that Jackson. The only qb quicker than fields is Murray.

 He regularly runs away from cbs man. I’ll go out on a limb and say he’s one of the top thirty fastest guys in the league offense or defense

I was referring to all the playoff QBs. On Jackson vs Fields, I think that is closer since Jackson is getting older.

[killakrzydav]

Ok gotcha buy the only running qb left was Jalen. Burrow and Pat are hands down the two best qbs in the league and are both pocket passers. I don’t think Justin will ever sniff eithers jock strap but if we can get Justin’s passing up to a Jalen level, he could be vying for the fifth best qb in the league which probably is Sunshine after these playoffs.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

6 hours ago, adam said:

SF vs PHI
SF and Shanahan choke again, this is a trend. He has too much of a track record of shitting his pants in big moments. How do you not challenge the 4th down play to Smith? It was too close of a call and too big of a play (biggest play of the game and on 4th down) not to challenge. Right after the play I was expecting the flag to get thrown out there instantly, or at least before Philly got off another play and Shanahan. 

A lot of people will come to his defense saying Purdy got hurt, but they left a TE on Reddick who had 16 sacks this season. Purdy doesn't get hit like that with an OT blocking him. 

I'm not sure "choke" is really fair.  Yes he did flub up the call of the "not-catch" early in the game which led to a TD but the wheels really started coming off when Purdy got hurt then Johnson went out with a concussion later in the game.  After all, he did manage to get the team to the NFC Championship on this THIRD STRING QB.  And similar to the Cincy/KC game, the refs didn't do them many favors especially later in the game (Greenlaw's Peanut Punch penalty being one).

And as far as Reddick goes, he's been making NFL level Tackles look bad all season let alone TEs.