How many trade downs is too much?

[jason]

This team sucks in multiple areas, but has enough talent to surprise opponents. Several games were close. A few breaks here or there and this team is easily around .500.

However, being around .500 every year is eventually what got Lovie fired. Nobody wants that again. So, the team needs to pull off a Herschel Walker trade IMO. But how much is too much?

On the PFF Draft Simulator, I got the following:

1. #2 for Detroit's #4, #18, #49 (2nd)
2. #4 for Pittsburgh's #13, #33 (2nd), and a 2024 RD2 pick
3. #13 for NYJet's #17, #48 (2nd)

That's two 1st round picks and a whopping four 2nd round picks, not to mention the extra pick in 2024.

This is the draft I ended up with even though I spent very little time analyzing. After looking at the possibilities and the players available, I want the Bears to trade down 2-3 times into the middle of the first and stock-pile picks. There are 7-8 starters in this bunch.

1:17-Paris Johnson, T, OSU - Suddenly Justin Fields' best friend
1:18-Jordan Addison, WR, USC - Prototypical slot burner
2:33-O'Cyrus Torrence, G, UF - Many say he's the top G; starts immediately
2:48-Will McDonald, DE, ISU - Very sudden, great energy
2:49-Mike Morris, DE, UM - Boom/Bust
2:56-Gervon Dexter, DT, UF - Slow off the snap, but basically an anchor
3:65-Bo Nix, QB, OU - Firm believer in QB every year, and Nix has pedigree/upside
4:97-Daiyan Henley, LB, WSU - I really like this guy. Versatile, inside or outside IMO 
5:129-Olusegun Oluwatimi, C, UM - Cool name; Outland/Rimington Trophy winner
5:143-Henry To'o To'o, LB, UA - Sort of shocked he was here; this is suspect (huge steal obv)
6:161-Deuce Vaugh, HB, KSU - Dude is explosive, regardless of size
6:181-Starling Thomas, CB, UAB - BPA and a CB to boot
7:193-Ryan Greenhagen, LB, Fordham - My favorite sleeper of the draft, had 30 tackls against Nebraska.

 

[DABEARSDABOMB]

I think I would love two trade backs in round 1 including finding a way to get an extra 1st rounder next year. Let’s start being a franchise who always has the capital to move around and be savvy vs the franchise who is always short on it. 

[Stinger226]

2 hours ago, jason said:

This team sucks in multiple areas, but has enough talent to surprise opponents. Several games were close. A few breaks here or there and this team is easily around .500.

However, being around .500 every year is eventually what got Lovie fired. Nobody wants that again. So, the team needs to pull off a Herschel Walker trade IMO. But how much is too much?

On the PFF Draft Simulator, I got the following:

1. #2 for Detroit's #4, #18, #49 (2nd)
2. #4 for Pittsburgh's #13, #33 (2nd), and a 2024 RD2 pick
3. #13 for NYJet's #17, #48 (2nd)

That's two 1st round picks and a whopping four 2nd round picks, not to mention the extra pick in 2024.

This is the draft I ended up with even though I spent very little time analyzing. After looking at the possibilities and the players available, I want the Bears to trade down 2-3 times into the middle of the first and stock-pile picks. There are 7-8 starters in this bunch.

1:17-Paris Johnson, T, OSU - Suddenly Justin Fields' best friend
1:18-Jordan Addison, WR, USC - Prototypical slot burner
2:33-O'Cyrus Torrence, G, UF - Many say he's the top G; starts immediately
2:48-Will McDonald, DE, ISU - Very sudden, great energy
2:49-Mike Morris, DE, UM - Boom/Bust
2:56-Gervon Dexter, DT, UF - Slow off the snap, but basically an anchor
3:65-Bo Nix, QB, OU - Firm believer in QB every year, and Nix has pedigree/upside
4:97-Daiyan Henley, LB, WSU - I really like this guy. Versatile, inside or outside IMO 
5:129-Olusegun Oluwatimi, C, UM - Cool name; Outland/Rimington Trophy winner
5:143-Henry To'o To'o, LB, UA - Sort of shocked he was here; this is suspect (huge steal obv)
6:161-Deuce Vaugh, HB, KSU - Dude is explosive, regardless of size
6:181-Starling Thomas, CB, UAB - BPA and a CB to boot
7:193-Ryan Greenhagen, LB, Fordham - My favorite sleeper of the draft, had 30 tackls against Nebraska.

 

If Poles first draft is any indication, he turned 6 picks into. 11. In this draft you have 2 of the first 3 are OL , don't see that happening. 1 WR, 1 DL and 1 OL. In what ever order. 

While he was in KC he brought in a 2 nd rounder and 6 th to now considered one of the better OLs in football. He thinks he can build a line that doesn't need all first rounders. B Jones is an example of that, he thinks he's the future LT. 

I don't see him drafting a LB in the 4 th either, he found Sanborn as a UDFA. 

Maybe he was lucky or maybe he's smart.

[Stinger226]

On October 20th he went and watched Virginia play Georgia Tech. The only 2  players I found on any player list was DevontaYion Wicks/WR  and Deion White /edge rusher. Neither are rated very high but he personally went to their game with Cunningham. He thinks he kind identify talent . I hope he does well.

[adam]

I like the first and last trade. The middle one, not so much.

#4 to #13 for only #33 and a mid to late 2024 2nd seems a little light. 

SF moved up 9 slots (12 > 3) for Lance. They gave up #12, 2022 1st, 2023 1st and a 2022 3rd to move up 9 slots (3x 1sts and a 3rd). Compare that to #13, #33, and a 2024 2nd (A 1st and 2x 2nds). SF sort of set the bar for that type of move. I assume it will take at least 2x 1sts to move up that high from outside of the top 10.

Other than that, you can't complain with 9 picks in the top 65, which is in the same window that other teams get 2 players. That is a net +7, which would be pretty silly but awesome.

[Mongo3451]

If we can trade back a couple of times to gain 3+ picks in the first three rounds or gain 2 extra picks in the first 3 rounds and gain a 1st for the 24 draft, I'm good. (I'm coveting Marvin Harrison Jr in 24)

As far as your draft.  I would do that.  I love the first 6 picks, then got a little lost with Bo Nix, when you could've nailed a stud running back.(I get it though)  Anyway, the top 6 makes it worth while.  Everything else is gravy.  I've got nothing going this morning, so I'll do one for fun.

As promised.  I see 8-9 new starters and greater depth.  Prior to draft, we signed Da'ron Payne and Jannick Ngakoue.  If Quentin Nelson and Michael Thomas return to form, it can be huge.

Edited January 6, 2023 by Mongo3451
Added draft and commentary

[adam]

Here is my 5 round mock. I figured the Bears would work nicely with Pace in Atlanta, get #7, #38, #102 + a 2024 1st and 3rd for #2.  Then trade back a few in the 2nd to pick up a couple extra 5ths. End up with an extra 2024 1st, 3rd, and 5th with 6 picks in the top 102 + Brown and Tillman in the 5th.

[adam]

The more I do these mock drafts, the more I think the Bears want to at least come away with one of these players while they are so high in the draft:

Anderson, ED
Carter, DL
Skoronski, OL

So if they can drop to 5th or 6th, pick up an extra 2024 1st and an additional pick in 2023 while still getting one of these 3, I think that is the perfect scenario.

The Colts feel like the sweet spot.
 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

6 minutes ago, adam said:

The more I do these mock drafts, the more I think the Bears want to at least come away with one of these players while they are so high in the draft:

Anderson, ED
Carter, DL
Skoronski, OL

So if they can drop to 5th or 6th, pick up an extra 2024 1st and an additional pick in 2023 while still getting one of these 3, I think that is the perfect scenario.

The Colts feel like the sweet spot.
 

Any idea on Skoronski's arm length? I have a feeling if his arms are not long enough, he gets passed if top 10. 

[adam]

Also, you may want to manually modify the draft order for the top 10. As of today, DET (LAR) is 6th, IND 5th, ARZ 4th, SEA (DEN) 3rd. 

I don't see any of those teams changing positions after next week unless HOU upsets IND, which doesn't even look like an upset right now. That might be the game of the week for the Bears.

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, adam said:

The more I do these mock drafts, the more I think the Bears want to at least come away with one of these players while they are so high in the draft:

Anderson, ED
Carter, DL
Skoronski, OL

So if they can drop to 5th or 6th, pick up an extra 2024 1st and an additional pick in 2023 while still getting one of these 3, I think that is the perfect scenario.

The Colts feel like the sweet spot.
 

I think this is probably the most likely scenario. However, we have a lot of money to spend in Free Agency, and once we make a few splashes our needs may change.

[adam]

44 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

I think this is probably the most likely scenario. However, we have a lot of money to spend in Free Agency, and once we make a few splashes our needs may change.

Very true, but Poles may want to save some cap to carry-over to 2024, then front load some contracts that year to keep the "window" open a little longer. The 2023 FA class is not the greatest, so I don't know how much he will want to put into it. 2024 looks a lot better (as of today).

If Fields is the guy, his rookie salary ends in 2025 (5th year option), so if they can front load some contracts with the extra cap, lessening the cap hits in say 2026-2027, that would give the Bears a few extra years with the same core. 

[BearFan PHX]

10 minutes ago, adam said:

Very true, but Poles may want to save some cap to carry-over to 2024, then front load some contracts that year to keep the "window" open a little longer. The 2023 FA class is not the greatest, so I don't know how much he will want to put into it. 2024 looks a lot better (as of today).

If Fields is the guy, his rookie salary ends in 2025 (5th year option), so if they can front load some contracts with the extra cap, lessening the cap hits in say 2026-2027, that would give the Bears a few extra years with the same core. 

For sure. But i do think they will sign a few large contract Free Agents. likely positions are at OT and on the D line, which are also the targeted positions for use in the first round. So I think things could change after Free Agency begins for us?

[adam]

53 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

For sure. But i do think they will sign a few large contract Free Agents. likely positions are at OT and on the D line, which are also the targeted positions for use in the first round. So I think things could change after Free Agency begins for us?

It would be nice to address several positions so they can go into the draft thinking BPA and not having to chase one position or another.

[BearFan PHX]

17 minutes ago, adam said:

It would be nice to address several positions so they can go into the draft thinking BPA and not having to chase one position or another.

every GM does this every year. They fill every need with a player. Not always a GOOD player, but they sign someone in case the draft falls a different way so they dont have to reach. Given the money we have, a few of them better be GOOD players LOL

[adam]

49 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

every GM does this every year. They fill every need with a player. Not always a GOOD player, but they sign someone in case the draft falls a different way so they dont have to reach. Given the money we have, a few of them better be GOOD players LOL

They try for sure, but like last offseason, Poles only signed Patrick for the O-Line before the draft and no CBs. That may have led him to go for Gordon first knowing Vildor was penciled in as CB2.

[BearFan PHX]

40 minutes ago, adam said:

They try for sure, but like last offseason, Poles only signed Patrick for the O-Line before the draft and no CBs. That may have led him to go for Gordon first knowing Vildor was penciled in as CB2.

true. I think 2022 was a unique year tho. I'll amend and say "unless youre taking a rebuild year to totally tear town the roster and move half your salary cap off the books" THEN you fill all your holes with Free Agents. The Bears do it every year. Like signing Glennon before drafting Trubisky. But all the teams do this for every position. Of course they dont all put great players there, but the try to allow themselves to take BPA or something similar. Call it worst case scenario insurance.

I am sure Poles will go into the draft with holes "filled" on the OL and DL, and then he will look very hard at DL and OL in the top of the draft. In many ways, Claypool is a Free Agent signing to "fill a WR hole" ahead of the 2023 draft.

We can go in so many directions. It all hinges on player evaluations, and right now we have no idea what cards Poles in holding in that regard.

This offseason is gonna be really interesting. The only sure thing, is that there are no sure things.

[BearFan PHX]

Oh, and I should add - any Free Agents he signs before the draft that only have 1 or 2 year deals, are not real choices, and we shouldn't judge Poles on them. We should judge him on players he brings in with 4 year deals. Those are his guys.

[BearFan PHX]

WOW I just saw this on YouTube - apparently Poles let his grading info slip and we can see what attributes he prizes most for each position, and his scores on Fields, Claypool and Velus Jones Jr. This is huge info that will help us to predict what hes gonna do.
 

 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

1 hour ago, BearFan PHX said:

WOW I just saw this on YouTube - apparently Pace let his grading info slip and we can see what attributes he prizes most for each position, and his scores on Fields, Claypool and Velus Jones Jr. This is huge info that will help us to predict what hes gonna do.
 

 

Ryan Pace? I know, i know....

Interesting that 2 of his 3 top offensive guys didn't play much.  Next season they become league leaders?

Also, what he looks for...height/arm length makes me question Peter Skoronski being a target, his arms will come up on the shorter end.

[AZ54]

17 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

On October 20th he went and watched Virginia play Georgia Tech. The only 2  players I found on any player list was DevontaYion Wicks/WR  and Deion White /edge rusher. Neither are rated very high but he personally went to their game with Cunningham. He thinks he kind identify talent . I hope he does well.

I'm guessing this should be Dontayvion Wicks and Keion White.  Both of them should be on our radar.   Just a WAG here but in this highlight Wicks compares favorably to Romeo Doubs who I liked as a Day 3 pick last year.  Of course GB liked him there too.  Wicks is much bigger and stronger and has some long stride speed.  He doesn't seem to separate well though.   

Keion White I'm higher on.  Big strong DE who appears to have the hustle we want but can also bend well around the edge.   His highlights are almost all against high level teams which bodes well.   On one play he's downfield in tight coverage on the RB.   

 

[AZ54]

2 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

WOW I just saw this on YouTube - apparently Pace let his grading info slip and we can see what attributes he prizes most for each position, and his scores on Fields, Claypool and Velus Jones Jr. This is huge info that will help us to predict what hes gonna do.
 

 

I think Swift is over doing it a bit here.  These attributes are all largely common in scouting.  He also makes a bad assumption that because one item is first on the list it is the most important.  These lists could be put together simply from the NFL scouting combine drills.    

What we don't know is how he grades those skills.   

[jason]

19 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

If Poles first draft is any indication, he turned 6 picks into. 11. In this draft you have 2 of the first 3 are OL , don't see that happening. 1 WR, 1 DL and 1 OL. In what ever order. 

While he was in KC he brought in a 2 nd rounder and 6 th to now considered one of the better OLs in football. He thinks he can build a line that doesn't need all first rounders. B Jones is an example of that, he thinks he's the future LT. 

I don't see him drafting a LB in the 4 th either, he found Sanborn as a UDFA. 

Maybe he was lucky or maybe he's smart.

If Poles were smart, he'd use 2 of the first 3 on OL. There is nothing more important in this franchise than Justin Fields. He needs to be protected at all costs.

[jason]

10 hours ago, adam said:

Here is my 5 round mock. I figured the Bears would work nicely with Pace in Atlanta, get #7, #38, #102 + a 2024 1st and 3rd for #2.  Then trade back a few in the 2nd to pick up a couple extra 5ths. End up with an extra 2024 1st, 3rd, and 5th with 6 picks in the top 102 + Brown and Tillman in the 5th.

I don't like any mock that ignores OT and/or OG. There absolutely, positively has to be more OL focus if the Bears are going to protect their franchise player.

[Stinger226]

12 hours ago, adam said:

Here is my 5 round mock. I figured the Bears would work nicely with Pace in Atlanta, get #7, #38, #102 + a 2024 1st and 3rd for #2.  Then trade back a few in the 2nd to pick up a couple extra 5ths. End up with an extra 2024 1st, 3rd, and 5th with 6 picks in the top 102 + Brown and Tillman in the 5th.

PFF mocks aren't realistic, they have Tillman available at 137? He ain't getting out of the second round. I've been mocking on PFN, they screw up to thou , they have T Tuipulotu down around 110 ranking. 

If you noticed missed words on my posts, I'm on my tablet now and its always Auto correcting any words its not familiar with. I don't always proof read.