What Results Do You Expect Next Year?

[Mongo3451]

We knew what this season was going to be.  Within that thought there were varied growth and win expectations from the Bearstalk family and media experts.  

This will be the single biggest off-season the Bears or maybe any other team has ever had.  Do we know of any team has had the number one pick, an emerging QB and 120 mil to spend?

Do you expect playoffs, winning record or vast improvement?  What gives Poles and Eberflus the thumbs up?

[BearFan PHX]

It's hard to answer with any kind of accuracy, since we don't know what the roster will be yet. But if we assume Justin Fields is the QB next year, and we assume a lot of holes get filled on the DL and OL, it will be a question of how the team gels. We saw evidence of what this staff was able to do in the middle of the season with this roster. With little to no talent, they HITS'd their way into a lot of excellent performances. Nagy never scored 30 points in back to back to back games.

I think the team will start a little slow, and then find themselves around game 6. From there, anything is possible. I think realistic outcomes range from a 7-10 record, to a first round playoff victory. And of course, once you're there, with momentum, who is to say?

The most likely outcome, I'm gonna guess now is 9-8, and a playoff appearance with a 50/50 chance of winning one playoff game.

But just as the team can outperform generic expectations, so can Poles over or under perform this critical offseason. If he manages to land a few game changers on the DL and OL, who can say what could be possible for this team. And if he whiffs, it's even harder to say.

But if he lands 2 true studs on the DL that bring consistent pressure, and puts together a competent OL with at least one guy you can reliably run behind, we'd already be in the top 10 of the league. Getting past those good teams in the top 10 then becomes the name of the game, and we would need at least another offseason to really do that.

I have a friend who is a Packers fan. He doesnt know what football teams are like. He only knows what it's like to always have a top 20 all time QB. He thinks a bad season is when the Pack is 8th in the league, and doesnt make the NFC Championship game.

We are standing on the precipice of an era where the Bears will be like that: a decent team looking to become a dominant one.

My prediction for 2023 is that they become that 10th best team in the league, and fight for a dominant identity from there. That part will almost certainly not happen next year, but that window opens 2024.

FWIW, there are only 9 teams with 10 or more wins. The 10th best team in the league, is the one standing just outside the circle of the 5 to 9 teams who are truly in contention.

But with this coaching staff, and if we get the right players, who is to say that come December, we aren't already becoming the 2024 team? That's what we will all be rooting for.

But from here, guessing generically, I'm saying 9-8, 10th best team in the league, go to a playoff game, 50/50 chance to win it. That's absolutely achievable from here, and would be my expectation for us next year. I'd call that success, and look forward to 2024 when we are really a SB contender.

[adam]

Our road is a little harder with DET improving. The crazy thought is GB might be the worst team in the division next year with or without Rodgers. Either he stays and plays like crap and they lose, or they are crippled with the dead cap if he retires forcing them to eat up to $40M in dead cap. They are already over with Rodgers at $31M, so they would have to cut another $15M off the roster just to sign their rookies. 

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, adam said:

Our road is a little harder with DET improving. The crazy thought is GB might be the worst team in the division next year with or without Rodgers. Either he stays and plays like crap and they lose, or they are crippled with the dead cap if he retires forcing them to eat up to $40M in dead cap. They are already over with Rodgers at $31M, so they would have to cut another $15M off the roster just to sign their rookies. 

Thats GM malpractice. I get that they couldnt let Rogers walk, but the 49ers let Montana go, and Brady is down in Tampa. Sometimes you gotta let go. It's suicide for a franchise.

[Stinger226]

1 hour ago, BearFan PHX said:

It's hard to answer with any kind of accuracy, since we don't know what the roster will be yet. But if we assume Justin Fields is the QB next year, and we assume a lot of holes get filled on the DL and OL, it will be a question of how the team gels. We saw evidence of what this staff was able to do in the middle of the season with this roster. With little to no talent, they HITS'd their way into a lot of excellent performances. Nagy never scored 30 points in back to back to back games.

I think the team will start a little slow, and then find themselves around game 6. From there, anything is possible. I think realistic outcomes range from a 7-10 record, to a first round playoff victory. And of course, once you're there, with momentum, who is to say?

The most likely outcome, I'm gonna guess now is 9-8, and a playoff appearance with a 50/50 chance of winning one playoff game.

But just as the team can outperform generic expectations, so can Poles over or under perform this critical offseason. If he manages to land a few game changers on the DL and OL, who can say what could be possible for this team. And if he whiffs, it's even harder to say.

But if he lands 2 true studs on the DL that bring consistent pressure, and puts together a competent OL with at least one guy you can reliably run behind, we'd already be in the top 10 of the league. Getting past those good teams in the top 10 then becomes the name of the game, and we would need at least another offseason to really do that.

I have a friend who is a Packers fan. He doesnt know what football teams are like. He only knows what it's like to always have a top 20 all time QB. He thinks a bad season is when the Pack is 8th in the league, and doesnt make the NFC Championship game.

We are standing on the precipice of an era where the Bears will be like that: a decent team looking to become a dominant one.

My prediction for 2023 is that they become that 10th best team in the league, and fight for a dominant identity from there. That part will almost certainly not happen next year, but that window opens 2024.

FWIW, there are only 9 teams with 10 or more wins. The 10th best team in the league, is the one standing just outside the circle of the 5 to 9 teams who are truly in contention.

But with this coaching staff, and if we get the right players, who is to say that come December, we aren't already becoming the 2024 team? That's what we will all be rooting for.

But from here, guessing generically, I'm saying 9-8, 10th best team in the league, go to a playoff game, 50/50 chance to win it. That's absolutely achievable from here, and would be my expectation for us next year. I'd call that success, and look forward to 2024 when we are really a SB contender.

I think you're spot on. Poles comes across to me as being smart. Since he has identified his QB, its obvious that he needs a better OL and a pass rush. I think he attacks the OL in free agency instead of a few high draft picks and then go thru their growing pains.

He let Daniels walk planning on the Ryan Bates experiment, that didn't work out. Bates has played well this year so he identified the right person anyways. He may let Whitehair go if he can upgrade with a valued vet. He will draft one that can play several spots in case a vet fails, can plug in and play.

He will bring in 4 new starters on the front 7, A few FAs and then a couple draftees. This year was an evaluation time for him. I don't think he values the LB position as high. Maybe Morrow will be back or a Bobby Okereke that played under Flus in the same system.

He'll bring in a CB but I think all the starters are all ready here.

He'll bring Pringle back and grabs a  Darius Slaton type to compete with V Jones in the slot. Then drafts one. 

I think he keeps Monty on a team friendly deal and brings in a rookie to compete with Ebner at RB 3.

He'll bring in another TE but Kmet is the main target.

The key to a winning season will be  because of the growth of Fields.

[Mongo3451]

My expectations are clear.  Fix the OL, once and for all.  Upgrade, at least 3 DL positions.  Draft a starting caliber WR.  That's free agency and draft.

As for performance, we should end the season in the top fifteen.  If Fields figures out passing, we will be a team that scares people.  Kinda like what Detroit did this year.  Detroit and us have close to the youngest teams in the league and I expect some really good competition for the division title in 2024.

My early projection is 8-9 or 9-8.  No playoffs.

2024 will be huge.  Hang on...

[Pixote]

Strength of Schedule can be deceiving, however, if you look at next year's opponents, and their 2022 records, the Bears have every reason to believe on SOS alone, they will greatly improve their 3 wins. KCC & LAC are the two best teams we will face. I think MIN was a fluke, should have had 9 or 10 wins, not 13. They really lucked out on more than a few wins. Detroit? They are hard to figure out.

HOME

Lions 9-8-0
Packers 8-9-0
Vikings 13-4-0
============
Falcons 7-10-0
Panthers 7-10-0
Broncos 5-12-0
Raiders 6-11-0
Cardinals 4-13-0

AWAY

Lions 9-8-0
Packers 8-9-0
Vikings 13-4-0
============
Chiefs 14-3-0
Chargers 10-7-0
Saints 7-10-0
Buccaneers 8-9-0
Commanders 8-8-1
Browns 7-10-0

143-145-1

[ASHKUM BEAR]

2023 all hinges on Justin Fields taking that next step. To help him take that step, he needs talent around him.  The oline could have 3 or 4 new starters.  Don't be surprised if Poles brings in Orlando Brown to play LT, drafts a RT and C in first 3 rounds along with a WR. The Defense needs 4 new lineman.  Draft 2 or 3 and sign 2 FA.  A move down once or twice could give the ammo to draft 2 oline, 1 wr, and 2-3 dline in top 100 picks. 

[AZ54]

Minimum 8 wins.