Pre FA Draft Poll...

[Mongo3451]

 

 

[AZ54]

It is early in the process so for now I prefer to trade down but stay in top 5.   As more info comes in I'm warming up to trading back further.  For example I'm warming up to the idea of drafting Tyree Wilson over Anderson.  That idea involves a double trade down scenario.  It would be interesting to repeat this poll after the combine.  

[adam]

My scenario goes like this:

1. Trade down once but only down enough where you can still get someone like Anderson, Carter, or Johnson. That way you get the extra draft capital plus a blue chipper this year (you need one every year).

2. If you can trade down again, stay in the top 8 and can still get one of those guys, you do it. However, the goal is to not be drafting in the top 10 next year with your own pick, so you have to get the most impactful player you can while you are drafting so low. 

The ultimate scenario is 1 to 2, then 2 to 4. However, there seems like there are going to be several other teams (7-LVR, 8-ATL, 9-CAR) looking for a QB in the top 10.
So the Bears could go 1 to 4 (IND), then 4 to 7 (LVR) if only 2 QBs are gone at 4, which is possible. If 3 QBs go in the top 3, the Bears have to keep 4 and pick Anderson. 

It seems like the top 5 is Young, Stroud, Levis, Anderson, and Carter (in any order). So if the Bears trade out of the top 5, into that 7-9 range, they would still get one of:

Myles Murphy, ED, Clemson
Tyree Wilson, ED, Texas Tech
Bryan Bresee, DL, Clemson
Paris Johnson, OT, Ohio St
Quentin Johnson, WR, TCU

So is Carter or Anderson better than Bresee or Murphy + an extra 2nd rounder? I don't know. It will come down to who the Bears believe is the best fit for their defense.

[AZ54]

BTW there is no reason a trade down inside the top 5 can't also include a 1st Rd pick in 2024.  

[adam]

4 hours ago, AZ54 said:

BTW there is no reason a trade down inside the top 5 can't also include a 1st Rd pick in 2024.  

Down to #2 probably won't but #3-5 would.

[Mongo3451]

My preference is to trade down and stay in the top 10.  Pipe dream is to trade down 3 times and draft 8th, all while netting multiple picks and a 2024 first.

[Stinger226]

There are a ton of mocks on this subject. The one that sounds the most logical is Houston trades # 2- A second rounder and a first next year. That seems steep but there is other teams bidding for that spot that makes it cost more.

Then with one QB gone, it makes # 2 more valuable .

[ASHKUM BEAR]

I'm selecting other because I want to move down at least once to pick 4 and hopefully again.  If Anderson is there at 4, would you trade pick 4 for pick 5 and 20 from Seattle, knowing Seattle takes him?  Murphy/Wilson are your typical 4-3 DEs where Anderson is OLB/DE. I want a player that can be great run and pass pro.  Breese imo isn't too far off from Carter either at DT.   That is why i would like to move down twice.

[BearFan PHX]

18 minutes ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

I'm selecting other because I want to move down at least once to pick 4 and hopefully again.  If Anderson is there at 4, would you trade pick 4 for pick 5 and 20 from Seattle, knowing Seattle takes him?  Murphy/Wilson are your typical 4-3 DEs where Anderson is OLB/DE. I want a player that can be great run and pass pro.  Breese imo isn't too far off from Carter either at DT.   That is why i would like to move down twice.

It's a difficult question, and the answer hinges entirely on the evaluation of the players. On one hand, if this guy is Von Miller, you gotta take him. There are only 5 QBs and 5 Pass Rushers each year that take over games. If you have one of each, you fill around them and compete for SuperBowls. A dominant pass rusher is worth any number of other players who arent world beaters.

On the other hand, he is undersized, and if he isn't the next pass rushing messiah then by all means you trade down. And you dont know. Its all a guess. Trubisky looks better than Mahomes to your talent evaluation department, but is he worth trading up for, or might our outlook be so fuzzy that even if we think Trubisky is better, maybe Mahomes will surprise us - what do we actually KNOW?

So it all comes down to our scouting department, and Poles and Cunningham taking input form coaches etc and making the right decisions. A lot of good GMs have failed at this too.

Oh, and I suppose it matters what you think of Jalen Carter too. If hes the guy, or also the guy along with Anderson, that plays into it too. I dont see it, but what do I know?

It takes information, intelligence, wisdom and luck. If you arent SURE Anderson is the guy in a 4-3, you gotta go with the trade down. But if he is, you gotta draft superman no matter what.

So how do we on this board answer this? We can look at film, and guess.

This is just one of several intriguing questions this offseason. I cant remember one that was as much fun as this one is right now.

[Stinger226]

43 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

It's a difficult question, and the answer hinges entirely on the evaluation of the players. On one hand, if this guy is Von Miller, you gotta take him. There are only 5 QBs and 5 Pass Rushers each year that take over games. If you have one of each, you fill around them and compete for SuperBowls. A dominant pass rusher is worth any number of other players who arent world beaters.

On the other hand, he is undersized, and if he isn't the next pass rushing messiah then by all means you trade down. And you dont know. Its all a guess. Trubisky looks better than Mahomes to your talent evaluation department, but is he worth trading up for, or might our outlook be so fuzzy that even if we think Trubisky is better, maybe Mahomes will surprise us - what do we actually KNOW?

So it all comes down to our scouting department, and Poles and Cunningham taking input form coaches etc and making the right decisions. A lot of good GMs have failed at this too.

Oh, and I suppose it matters what you think of Jalen Carter too. If hes the guy, or also the guy along with Anderson, that plays into it too. I dont see it, but what do I know?

It takes information, intelligence, wisdom and luck. If you arent SURE Anderson is the guy in a 4-3, you gotta go with the trade down. But if he is, you gotta draft superman no matter what.

So how do we on this board answer this? We can look at film, and guess.

This is just one of several intriguing questions this offseason. I cant remember one that was as much fun as this one is right now.

The possibility exists that both Anderson and Carter are  blue chip plus players. Also Wilson and Murphy aren't far behind. I think any of a number of scenarios can all turn out well for us. If you can get a couple extra top 100 picks and get any of those players, its a win.

[Mongo3451]

48 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

It's a difficult question, and the answer hinges entirely on the evaluation of the players. On one hand, if this guy is Von Miller, you gotta take him. There are only 5 QBs and 5 Pass Rushers each year that take over games. If you have one of each, you fill around them and compete for SuperBowls. A dominant pass rusher is worth any number of other players who arent world beaters.

On the other hand, he is undersized, and if he isn't the next pass rushing messiah then by all means you trade down. And you dont know. Its all a guess. Trubisky looks better than Mahomes to your talent evaluation department, but is he worth trading up for, or might our outlook be so fuzzy that even if we think Trubisky is better, maybe Mahomes will surprise us - what do we actually KNOW?

So it all comes down to our scouting department, and Poles and Cunningham taking input form coaches etc and making the right decisions. A lot of good GMs have failed at this too.

Oh, and I suppose it matters what you think of Jalen Carter too. If hes the guy, or also the guy along with Anderson, that plays into it too. I dont see it, but what do I know?

It takes information, intelligence, wisdom and luck. If you arent SURE Anderson is the guy in a 4-3, you gotta go with the trade down. But if he is, you gotta draft superman no matter what.

So how do we on this board answer this? We can look at film, and guess.

This is just one of several intriguing questions this offseason. I cant remember one that was as much fun as this one is right now.

Like the if/then process analogy.  It very hard to know what to do.  What would we rather have, one future HOF or three twelve year starters?  I can't comprehend the math of it all.

[AZ54]

21 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

Like the if/then process analogy.  It very hard to know what to do.  What would we rather have, one future HOF or three twelve year starters?  I can't comprehend the math of it all.

I'll take the HoF player.   We can find starters in any draft or FA.  HoF players should be the types who alter the game plan of the other team.  That player could be lurking in 5-10 range like the CB Christian Gonzalez, DT Bresee, or Edge Tyree Wilson.   

[BearFan PHX]

40 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

The possibility exists that both Anderson and Carter are  blue chip plus players. Also Wilson and Murphy aren't far behind. I think any of a number of scenarios can all turn out well for us. If you can get a couple extra top 100 picks and get any of those players, its a win.

I totally agree. All the scenarios are good ones, but which one is the best? It's a hell of a riddle.

[Stinger226]

1 hour ago, BearFan PHX said:

I totally agree. All the scenarios are good ones, but which one is the best? It's a hell of a riddle.

We all assume everyone will move up for QBs but if Carter and Anderson is all of that, someone could move for them. Best scenario is move to #2 then to # 4. Then someone wants to move ahead of Seattle for the last QB. Raiders, Detroit, Carolina. Stay top 10 and  draft T Wilson.

[killakrzydav]

Ideally, could swap with Houston, then Indy, and then Detroit. 6 is the sweet spot for Anderson or carter to fall

[BearFan PHX]

I don't see Anderson falling past #4 (at most!), and if Carter is there at #6, I dont want him. Ive seen that movie before. For years the Bears picked around #8, and every year a top 4 guy fell, and often we took him, and then found out why the other GMs passed on him. There is a long list of names like that that we've taken over the years.

[killakrzydav]

Flawed logic. Moss fell and we passed on him for a bum.

[BearFan PHX]

46 minutes ago, killakrzydav said:

Flawed logic. Moss fell and we passed on him for a bum.

And Brady got passed over into the 6th round. It's true. But it's not so much flawed logic, as it's the exception that proves the rule. Players that are expected to go in the top 5 and fall are often not so great. They're still a steal in the 2nd round, but often not high first round material - which is why a consensus of GMs let them fall before you.

I'm not sold on Carter. I guess that's why I'm saying this now. If Anderson fell, I wouldn't be making this argument at all I suppose.

But maybe that's because I don't think Anderson could fall, and I guess that's my point.

Edited January 30, 2023 by BearFan PHX

[Mongo3451]

2 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

And Brady got passed over into the 6th round. It's true. But it's not so much flawed logic, as it's the exception that proves the rule. Players that are expected to go in the top 5 and fall are often not so great. They're still a steal in the 2nd round, but often not high first round material - which is why a consensus of GMs let them fall before you.

I'm not sold on Carter. I guess that's why I'm saying this now. If Anderson fell, I wouldn't be making this argument at all I suppose.

But maybe that's because I don't think Anderson could fall, and I guess that's my point.

I'm not sold on Carter either, but we can't look on our failed history of drafting and put the Cubs jinx on Poles.  Let's give him that fresh Theo juju.  I don't want any bears curses, ever.  If we draft 8th, it's by choice and skill of evaluating talent.  I would love to draft 8th. That would mean we traded multiple times and are focused on building a rock solid foundation.

[BearFan PHX]

26 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

I'm not sold on Carter either, but we can't look on our failed history of drafting and put the Cubs jinx on Poles.  Let's give him that fresh Theo juju.  I don't want any bears curses, ever.  If we draft 8th, it's by choice and skill of evaluating talent.  I would love to draft 8th. That would mean we traded multiple times and are focused on building a rock solid foundation.

Oh yeah, I didnt mean just the Bears. I meant in general in the NFL draft. Drafting 8th would be great (for the exact reason you mention - trade value!). I just dont want Carter if he falls to #8, Id rather take someone else.

But to your main point, Poles bears zero responsibility for the Bears front offices that came before him for sure! And I agree I am expecting him to be MUCH better than the guys who came before him.

You mention the Cubs and Theo, and they also bit the bullet and had some purposeful bad years to gain the capital they needed to win a World Series. The analogy is a really good one, and we survived this year to get here, now let's cash in the chips for the right players and get after it!

[Stinger226]

5 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

And Brady got passed over into the 6th round. It's true. But it's not so much flawed logic, as it's the exception that proves the rule. Players that are expected to go in the top 5 and fall are often not so great. They're still a steal in the 2nd round, but often not high first round material - which is why a consensus of GMs let them fall before you.

I'm not sold on Carter. I guess that's why I'm saying this now. If Anderson fell, I wouldn't be making this argument at all I suppose.

But maybe that's because I don't think Anderson could fall, and I guess that's my point.

First round picks have a 50% fail rate. Not so much that some don't make it as a starter but failed because of the high value they were picked. The gold ring in this draft is Anderson. ( IMO) but if we get 4 or 5 extra picks, I wouldn't have a problem with Murphy, Wilson or Bresee at the bottom of the top 10 picks.

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:

First round picks have a 50% fail rate. Not so much that some don't make it as a starter but failed because of the high value they were picked. The gold ring in this draft is Anderson. ( IMO) but if we get 4 or 5 extra picks, I wouldn't have a problem with Murphy, Wilson or Bresee at the bottom of the top 10 picks.

I feel the same way - especially if we get extra high picks, and a 2024 first rounder

[killakrzydav]

Heck, I’m not sold on Carter either. Most of the mocks I do have me treading down four times and taking Robinson the Texas Rb, my favorite OL, or the Tcu receiver (who I’m not sold on either) in the mid first.