Updated Salary Cap Numbers for 2023

[adam]

The league announced the cap will be $224.8M for 2023. With that info and the known carryovers and other related charges, OTC has the Bears at $90.8M in cap space and $82M in effective cap. Using effective cap, which is more realistic, the Bears could sign 3x players with a $10M cap hit for 2023 and STILL have the highest available cap space. Truly insane.

17 teams are over the cap (effective cap) and another 6 are under $10M. The Saints and Bucs are going to have to cut some big name players as they are $58M and $62M over. There is no way you can manipulate the cap that much. 

Some teams are actually quite comical. Packers are $20M over and saddled with Rodgers contract. Panthers have no QB and are $14M over.

[adam]

The Bears could sign Payne, Ngakoue, and someone like Dre'Mont Jones or Zach Allen at DT and still have the most cap space. That would be an elite D-Line. Then you rotate Gipson and Robinson in at Edge with Justin Jones rotating in at DT. 

[adam]

My guess is 5-6 top end FAs this offseason. 2-3 on D-Line (Payne, Ngakoue, Jones/Allen), at least one on O-Line (McGary-RT), then maybe a CB (Dean) or LB (Long), TE (Engram) or WR (Meyers).

Then at least one trade back to pick up an extra 1st in 2024 and a 2nd rounder in 2023. 4 picks in the first 64 picks.

That would be close to 10 new impact players in one offseason. It is hard to fathom.

[Stinger226]

2 hours ago, adam said:

My guess is 5-6 top end FAs this offseason. 2-3 on D-Line (Payne, Ngakoue, Jones/Allen), at least one on O-Line (McGary-RT), then maybe a CB (Dean) or LB (Long), TE (Engram) or WR (Meyers).

Then at least one trade back to pick up an extra 1st in 2024 and a 2nd rounder in 2023. 4 picks in the first 64 picks.

That would be close to 10 new impact players in one offseason. It is hard to fathom.

I personally think Poles is very smart with the draft. Turned 5 into 11 and got 5 starters out of the deal. I can't wait to see what he does with this draft.

[BearFan PHX]

4 hours ago, adam said:

My guess is 5-6 top end FAs this offseason. 2-3 on D-Line (Payne, Ngakoue, Jones/Allen), at least one on O-Line (McGary-RT), then maybe a CB (Dean) or LB (Long), TE (Engram) or WR (Meyers).

Then at least one trade back to pick up an extra 1st in 2024 and a 2nd rounder in 2023. 4 picks in the first 64 picks.

That would be close to 10 new impact players in one offseason. It is hard to fathom.

it really is like nothing we've seen before. We are, for all practical purposes, an expansion team, except we have Fields already.

I agree with almost all of this, but I expect more on the OL.

Also, I keep reading articles about how the Packers want to move on from Rodgers. One article even suggests that getting his salary off the books is a necessity for the Pack. But the thing is, they JUST signed him, and if they cut or trade him this year, they take a $100M hit to their cap. It's not even possible.

It'll be fun watching the Bears get the all time series vs the Pack on the right side again. It'll be fun watching Packers fans learn what a real football team is like when you dont have a top 20 all time QB. They have no idea.

Welcome to the era of the Bears. We are gonna take the North and never give it back!

[Mongo3451]

Just wondering why the number is much lower than previously mentioned.  Is it without dead cap put something?

[adam]

1 minute ago, Mongo3451 said:

Just wondering why the number is much lower than previously mentioned.  Is it without dead cap put something?

From the article at OTC, it is basically for all the performance bonuses that hit during 2022. Those carry over into 2023 since they are not awarded until they are met. 

So if a guy gets a $1M bonus for Pro Bowl selection, that doesn't count in the 2022 cap because it won't be awarded until well into the season. If that hits, the $1M has to be accounted for in the cap number for the next year. Signing bonuses are spread over all the years, workout bonuses apply to current year, and performance bonuses apply to the following year. 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

Forgive my ignorance but I assume the '#' column in the middle of the chart indicates how many players are under contract?  

[BearFan PHX]

It also already includes ($116M worth of) players signed to deals, like Whitehair's $14 Million for example, and others. There are cuts that can be made to free up even more space.

[Stinger226]

14 hours ago, adam said:

My guess is 5-6 top end FAs this offseason. 2-3 on D-Line (Payne, Ngakoue, Jones/Allen), at least one on O-Line (McGary-RT), then maybe a CB (Dean) or LB (Long), TE (Engram) or WR (Meyers).

Then at least one trade back to pick up an extra 1st in 2024 and a 2nd rounder in 2023. 4 picks in the first 64 picks.

That would be close to 10 new impact players in one offseason. It is hard to fathom.

We can't fix everything in one season, I think he intends on fixing the OL and DL. I don't think his higher end contracts will be anywhere else. 

We have a lot of potential in the defensive backfield, so he will  not bring in a CB with a big spend. Same for TE or WR. We need to upgrade these spots but what he can't fill in FAgency, he will address in the draft.

I guess RT, DT and OC will be the first he brings in. I think he brings in DE but not on a big contract. I see him drafting two because its the strength of the draft.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

In other relatable news:

 

[Stinger226]

1 hour ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

In other relatable news:

 

Did they say what he cost? Wilson deal didn't leave a lot of draft capital.

[Stinger226]

Read an article today about why our cap was lower than expected. Some of the players they had , had incentive clauses that came due at the end of the season. Rielly got a 4.5 mil bonus. Plus they signed 11 future contract that is a little under 10 mil

[AZ54]

7 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

Did they say what he cost? Wilson deal didn't leave a lot of draft capital.

https://saintswire.usatoday.com/2023/01/31/sean-payton-saints-broncos-trade-compensation/

According to Schefter, the Saints will receive the Broncos’ 2023 first-round pick (No. 30) and a 2024 second-round pick for Payton and New Orleans’ 2024 third-round selection

[Stinger226]

1 hour ago, AZ54 said:

https://saintswire.usatoday.com/2023/01/31/sean-payton-saints-broncos-trade-compensation/

According to Schefter, the Saints will receive the Broncos’ 2023 first-round pick (No. 30) and a 2024 second-round pick for Payton and New Orleans’ 2024 third-round selection

Not sure Payton can fix Wilson but they get an A for effort.

[AZ54]

2 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

Not sure Payton can fix Wilson but they get an A for effort.

...and a big fat F for hiring the wrong guy last year.  This is a face-saving move but giving up more draft picks again is really limiting the future of this roster.  Interesting that they went after Demeco Ryans first and Payton was the 2nd choice.  

[Mongo3451]

20 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

...and a big fat F for hiring the wrong guy last year.  This is a face-saving move but giving up more draft picks again is really limiting the future of this roster.  Interesting that they went after Demeco Ryans first and Payton was the 2nd choice.  

They actually wanted Harbaugh first.  Heard that on Greeney today.  Also heard Ryans didn't want anything to do with Wilson.

[AZ54]

31 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

They actually wanted Harbaugh first.  Heard that on Greeney today.  Also heard Ryans didn't want anything to do with Wilson.

I stand corrected, I forgot Harbaugh had visited them.   Harbaugh turning down $100mil seems odd unless he wanted more control over the roster including what to do at QB.   

[Stinger226]

11 hours ago, AZ54 said:

I stand corrected, I forgot Harbaugh had visited them.   Harbaugh turning down $100mil seems odd unless he wanted more control over the roster including what to do at QB.   

Maybe he knows the owners wasted draft capital and wreaked the immediate future.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

19 hours ago, AZ54 said:

and a big fat F for hiring the wrong guy last year

Meanwhile Nathaniel Hacketts opening line for when he interviews for coaching jobs is that he knows Aaron Rodgers.  

 

[adam]

2 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Meanwhile Nathaniel Hacketts opening line for when he interviews for coaching jobs is that he knows Aaron Rodgers.  

 

They don't even show him in Denver colors because he wasn't there long enough.

[Mongo3451]

9 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

Maybe he knows the owners wasted draft capital and wreaked the immediate future.

Imagine the hole Denver is in now.  Gave up good players and picks for Wilson.  Then gave him a monster contract.  Then give up picks for Peyton.  They are hurting if he isn't a miracle worker.

[BearFan PHX]

On 1/31/2023 at 9:10 PM, Stinger226 said:

We can't fix everything in one season, I think he intends on fixing the OL and DL. I don't think his higher end contracts will be anywhere else. 

We have a lot of potential in the defensive backfield, so he will  not bring in a CB with a big spend. Same for TE or WR. We need to upgrade these spots but what he can't fill in FAgency, he will address in the draft.

I guess RT, DT and OC will be the first he brings in. I think he brings in DE but not on a big contract. I see him drafting two because its the strength of the draft.

I think he is likely to draft a DE high, maybe VERY high, but I wouldn't be surprised if he pays a real contract for a guy like Marcus Davenport if he is available too.

He has a ton of $ to spend on the DL, like $50 Million dollars. So he can do a lot there.

[BearFan PHX]

For fun, I looked to see what the league average is for spending on each position group.

This is the 2022 NFL average cap allotment:

OL.      $42.4 Million

QB.       $21.3 Million

RB.       $9.6 Million

TE.       $10.2 Million

WR.      $29.3 Million

DL.       $36.6 Million

LB.        $25.5 Million

DB.       $35.2 Million

ST.       $4.9 Million

You can see a few things right away.

1) $50 Million/year QBs really cost your team in other areas

2) QBs on their Rookie deals give you space to beef up the Defense

3) we have a rookie deal QB and two rookie deal defensive backs, so we can afford a more than the average on the D Line

4) RBs are just not a position to spend big on, ditto LBs

Obviously there are true stud players who can take over a game from any position, like Troy Polomalu, or Ray Lewis or Barry Sanders, and you might pay them a lot more than their position. But all things being equal, which they pretty much are when you have a wide open salary cap like we do, that money is gonna go to the DL and the OL.

So I think they sign two big free agents on the DL AND draft DL high as well.

This is also why I expect at least 3 new starters on the OL next year.

[Stinger226]

3 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

For fun, I looked to see what the league average is for spending on each position group.

This is the 2022 NFL average cap allotment:

OL.      $42.4 Million

QB.       $21.3 Million

RB.       $9.6 Million

TE.       $10.2 Million

WR.      $29.3 Million

DL.       $36.6 Million

LB.        $25.5 Million

DB.       $35.2 Million

ST.       $4.9 Million

You can see a few things right away.

1) $50 Million/year QBs really cost your team in other areas

2) QBs on their Rookie deals give you space to beef up the Defense

3) we have a rookie deal QB and two rookie deal defensive backs, so we can afford a more than the average on the D Line

4) RBs are just not a position to spend big on, ditto LBs

Obviously there are true stud players who can take over a game from any position, like Troy Polomalu, or Ray Lewis or Barry Sanders, and you might pay them a lot more than their position. But all things being equal, which they pretty much are when you have a wide open salary cap like we do, that money is gonna go to the DL and the OL.

So I think they sign two big free agents on the DL AND draft DL high as well.

This is also why I expect at least 3 new starters on the OL next year.

Agree with both statements. I think he grabs a Free agent at DE by thinks Davenport gets a big contract without a lot of production last year. I tink he grabs someone like Ngakoue that won't cost at much.