Interest for #1 pick heating up

[adam]

There could be a bidding war going on between Texans and Colts. 

For 2 to 1, the Bears should get the Texans 2nd (#32) and mid-round pick in 2023 or 2024. (1 <>2+32+4th or 5th round pick)

For 4 to 1, the Bears should get the Colts 2nd (#34), and potentially a 2024 1st (1 <>4+34+2024 1st)
If not a 2024 1st, then it would have to be at least a 2024 2nd and a 2024 3rd (1 <>4+34+2024 2nd+2024 3rd)

*Note - Indy does not have a 2023 3rd rounder

 

[adam]

I feel like the Texans are really going to have to overpay to move up one slot. Either way, with at least 2 QBs going in the top 3, the Bears would still get a blue chipper at #4.

If Poles can trade down twice and acquire multiple future 1st rounders, he would undo what Pace did over the last 7 years (trading away 1st rounders). 

[Stinger226]

If they use the value system, it will only grab you a second round pick for Houston to move one spot. I would  say a bidding war gets you multiple this year and something next year. I doubt it would be a one though. So 2 nd a 4 th and second next year.

 Then Colts give you a  second and a 3rd rounder this year and next years 3rd..

Carolina grab you another second round and a first next year. Grab Tyree Wilson. 

9 th pick, 3 seconds, 2 thirds , 2 4ths. 

Next a one, A second and a 3rd.

[adam]

40 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

If they use the value system, it will only grab you a second round pick for Houston to move one spot. I would  say a bidding war gets you multiple this year and something next year. I doubt it would be a one though. So 2 nd a 4 th and second next year.

 Then Colts give you a  second and a 3rd rounder this year and next years 3rd..

Carolina grab you another second round and a first next year. Grab Tyree Wilson. 

9 th pick, 3 seconds, 2 thirds , 2 4ths. 

Next a one, A second and a 3rd.

I am telling you, I may have to be admitted to the hospital if Poles pulls off 2 trades AND stays in the top 10. That would mean multiple 1sts in the future and possibly multiple 2nds this year. 

 

[Mongo3451]

1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:

If they use the value system, it will only grab you a second round pick for Houston to move one spot. I would  say a bidding war gets you multiple this year and something next year. I doubt it would be a one though. So 2 nd a 4 th and second next year.

 Then Colts give you a  second and a 3rd rounder this year and next years 3rd..

Carolina grab you another second round and a first next year. Grab Tyree Wilson. 

9 th pick, 3 seconds, 2 thirds , 2 4ths. 

Next a one, A second and a 3rd.

They call that the blue pill scenario...????

[Mongo3451]

1 hour ago, adam said:

I am telling you, I may have to be admitted to the hospital if Poles pulls off 2 trades AND stays in the top 10. That would mean multiple 1sts in the future and possibly multiple 2nds this year. 

 

Me too.  Keep the defibrillator handy...?

[ASHKUM BEAR]

I want the value I get using the pff mock draft simulator.  Anything less and I will now be disappointed ?

[Pixote]

I pray Adam Schefter is spot on for a change.

This quote"

Quote

“I can just tell you right now, that the Bears are going to have the opportunity to listen to some unbelievable offers for the No. 1 pick,” Schefter said. “And they’re gonna have the chance to parlay that one pick – that came as a benefit from the Houston Texans, playing a game that they never should have won – into a bevy of future picks that can set up that franchise for years to come.”

 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

7 hours ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

I want the value I get using the pff mock draft simulator.  Anything less and I will now be disappointed ?

Without getting to greedy, moving down twice fits well.  

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

Without getting to greedy, moving down twice fits well.  

perfect. this is about what id expect we might actually do, and you get a high first rounder for next year which is the best kind of insurance on the unknowns going into 2023.

(EDIT - I mean about the trades, i didnt really look at the actual pick)

[AZ54]

Teams at 7/8/9 continue to intrigue me. 

Raiders:  With Brady removed from the equation, Raiders fans, at least those I know, are focused on trading for Rodgers.  That's a long shot IMO unless and until Rodgers forces them into a trade.  His contract is very complex and it's hard to know if there's a trade clause option he can use.  Just on the surface the Raiders have $18mil in cap space and Rodgers is due $60mil in salary this year.  Unloading Carr frees up $29mil so they aren't far off.  It makes for chatter in the offseason but I can't see how this is remotely feasible.   Is Green Bay really willing to walk away from him after that big contract last year?  

With Brady and Rodgers out of the equation where do the Raiders turn?  JimmyG is not much different from Carr although he likely knows the offensive system.  He'd be an expensive stop gap but what did the team really win?  They could do a rebuild and sell off some players but that seems like a tough sell after going all-in on Adams last year.     ( Hey Tom, it's Josh McDaniels on the phone again...do you want to talk to him or should I tell him you're out walking on the beach like last time?). 

Atlanta and Carolina:  Both teams are all-in on a rebuild and stuck on the outside looking in.   Can they get high enough to get one of the top 3 QBs?  Neither will get to #1, it's likely they don't even want to.   But they will likely want to get to 3, 4, 5, or 6 which is ahead of the Raiders.  

 

 

 

 

[AZ54]

45 minutes ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

Without getting to greedy, moving down twice fits well.  

Will McDonald that high?  

[ASHKUM BEAR]

1 hour ago, AZ54 said:

Will McDonald that high?  

He supposedly impressed at the senior bowl.  I can see them going DT/DE.

[Stinger226]

I think the first 3 picks are spot on. DL, DE, and OL. I think they bring in a RT in free agency but bring in a Cody Mauch that could play multiple positions to cover is someone fails on the line. 8 top 103 players would be awesome.

[AZ54]

Saw an ESPN clip on Youtube last night where Kiper was saying this is a bad draft, he only has 80 players with good grades.  Effectively as compared to typical top 100 he only has 80 players with high enough grade.   If Poles sees the same it could affect what he does in a trade down where he's more open to a 2024 pick.  For anything related to the 1st Rd trades he'll likely still want anything 2nd/3rd Rd but do you really want to bring in 10 players from this draft?  If he trades down later in the draft (2nd/3rd Rd) rather than a 2023 4th/5th he might prefer next years 3rd/4th from a team.  

For reference Kiper said last year he had 120 players graded out (let's call them potential starters).  

[adam]

16 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

Saw an ESPN clip on Youtube last night where Kiper was saying this is a bad draft, he only has 80 players with good grades.  Effectively as compared to typical top 100 he only has 80 players with high enough grade.   If Poles sees the same it could affect what he does in a trade down where he's more open to a 2024 pick.  For anything related to the 1st Rd trades he'll likely still want anything 2nd/3rd Rd but do you really want to bring in 10 players from this draft?  If he trades down later in the draft (2nd/3rd Rd) rather than a 2023 4th/5th he might prefer next years 3rd/4th from a team.  

For reference Kiper said last year he had 120 players graded out (let's call them potential starters).  

I don't know about that. 80 is a mid-3rd round pick. There may not be 20 elite guys are something like that, but there are more than 80 starters.  The Bears currently have 4 picks in the first 102 and with one trade will add at least another. They have 3 picks in the first 64, and will likely have a 4th after a trade. 

[BearFan2000]

The irony here is that had the Texans lost that game to the colts they would have the #1 overall.   Thank you Lovie Smith.  

[AZ54]

What do the Texans do?   Work to convince people they don't care about a QB. 

https://www.si.com/nfl/bears/news/bears-needs-so-great-trading-way-down-makes-sense

"There is much speculation now that Houston might be looking not for a quarterback but for defensive line help because the Texans hired former 49ers defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans as head coach. If the Bears move down to No. 4, they might miss the chance at both Anderson or Carter."

Lately rumors are running counter to the QB narrative but honestly Demeco Ryans and all the QB issues he's seen in SF can't make him blind to the fact he needs a good QB.  Name the Superbowl they won without a top QB?  Nobody cares about getting to the Superbowl if you lose, even Rex Grossman did that.  

The article makes a good point that we might not covet either Anderson or Carter since they don't fit well into our scheme.  Again, we should make it known we'd go back further if the value is there (i.e. those teams at 7/8/9) and see what's on the offer table.  Will that pressure be enough to get Indy to move off their spot to secure whoever it is they want? 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

4 hours ago, BearFan2000 said:

The irony here is that had the Texans lost that game to the colts they would have the #1 overall.   Thank you Lovie Smith.  

Just think the Bears beat the Texans by Roquan Smith intercepting Mills, runs it to the 18 and we kick a FG as time expired to end the game.  We were that close to owning the 1st pick without Lovie telling the the ownership what he really thought if them.

[Stinger226]

3 hours ago, AZ54 said:

What do the Texans do?   Work to convince people they don't care about a QB. 

https://www.si.com/nfl/bears/news/bears-needs-so-great-trading-way-down-makes-sense

"There is much speculation now that Houston might be looking not for a quarterback but for defensive line help because the Texans hired former 49ers defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans as head coach. If the Bears move down to No. 4, they might miss the chance at both Anderson or Carter."

Lately rumors are running counter to the QB narrative but honestly Demeco Ryans and all the QB issues he's seen in SF can't make him blind to the fact he needs a good QB.  Name the Superbowl they won without a top QB?  Nobody cares about getting to the Superbowl if you lose, even Rex Grossman did that.  

The article makes a good point that we might not covet either Anderson or Carter since they don't fit well into our scheme.  Again, we should make it known we'd go back further if the value is there (i.e. those teams at 7/8/9) and see what's on the offer table.  Will that pressure be enough to get Indy to move off their spot to secure whoever it is they want? 

The article makes some good points but great players transcends schemes. Lets say we pass on Anderson and he gets 14 sacks. We take Tyree Wilson ( better fit for defense) and he gets 8 sacks. That's not a win. 

[Mongo3451]

1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:

The article makes some good points but great players transcends schemes. Lets say we pass on Anderson and he gets 14 sacks. We take Tyree Wilson ( better fit for defense) and he gets 8 sacks. That's not a win. 

C'mon man, you know better.  One gets 14 sacks, while the other gets 8.  But the one that gets 8 sacks, has 3ff, 8tfl and far exceeds in run defense.  Stats are BS.

[Stinger226]

1 hour ago, Mongo3451 said:

C'mon man, you know better.  One gets 14 sacks, while the other gets 8.  But the one that gets 8 sacks, has 3ff, 8tfl and far exceeds in run defense.  Stats are BS.

Its nice projecting stuff but have no idea how and who does well at the next level. Parsons is the last under sized  edge rusher to have great praise. He has 149 tackles, 26.5 sacks, 56 QB hits, 33 TFL 6 FF, 6 PD, 3 FR in two years. He is the same size as Will Anderson. I'll take the stud pass rusher. I agree with the stats are bullshit but sometimes there not.

[Mongo3451]

Jim Irsay has shown again that he is on full tilt.  They are letting the world know who they are hiring and it's Jalen Hurts OC.  That also means they are all out committed to a mobile quarterback.  There may be a bidding war for our pick.  Let the fleecing begin!  For all we know, we may trade that pick weeks before the draft, if someone demands.

[AZ54]

22 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

Jim Irsay has shown again that he is on full tilt.  They are letting the world know who they are hiring and it's Jalen Hurts OC.  That also means they are all out committed to a mobile quarterback.  There may be a bidding war for our pick.  Let the fleecing begin!  For all we know, we may trade that pick weeks before the draft, if someone demands.

Trading down in advance does not bother me if the value is there.  There is plenty of precedent for that.  The Eagles did that the year they drafted Wentz and the timing was one week before the draft.  That's all post-Combine, pro day, and team visit with player so we have a long way to go.  However, with so many potential bidders, and two division rivals, in the mix it could force someone to trade up earlier than that.   

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/eagles-now-have-no-2-pick-after-blockbuster-trade-with-browns/

"It's official: The Eagles have agreed to a trade with the Browns to move up to the No. 2 pick in the 2016 NFL Draft. The expectation is that they'll take one of the top two quarterbacks, either Jared Goff or Carson Wentz.

The details:

The Eagles get: The No. 2 pick in 2016 and a 2017 fourth-round pick.

The Browns get: The No. 8 pick in 2016, the No. 77 pick (third round) in 2016, the No. 100 pick (fourth round) in 2016, a 2017 first-rounder and a 2018 second-rounder."

[Mongo3451]

11 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

Trading down in advance does not bother me if the value is there.  There is plenty of precedent for that. 

I actually would prefer it.  If I were GM, it would remove a little clutter and allow me to focus more down the road.  That time would allow for more conversations with other GM's and possibly nail some more great trades.