Interest for #1 pick heating up

[adam]

On 2/10/2023 at 2:05 PM, BearFan2000 said:

The irony here is that had the Texans lost that game to the colts they would have the #1 overall.   Thank you Lovie Smith.  

A lot of irony, there was also the other Colts-Texans game that ended in a tie. If the Texans lost that one instead of a tie, they would've had the first pick. So all they had to do is finish tied with the Bears and they would've had the first pick. Wild.

The Colts were slick losing that one. They actually lost their last 7 and 10 out of 11.  The Colts somehow beat the Chiefs which has to be the biggest upset all season.

The Texans actually played really good down the stretch. They won 2 of their last 3, lost to KC by 6 in OT and Dallas by 4. Dallas scored with 46 seconds left to win the game.

[adam]

The Chicago Bears are now on the clock..........

[Stinger226]

Seen a proposed trade with  Washington that brought back Chase Young, Jahan Dobson/WR and a second round pick and future 2024 # 1  pick. Plus pick 15. 

Would you do that ?

Why would Washington do that? Get a QB and would then have money to pay Payne.

[adam]

On 2/13/2023 at 11:02 PM, Stinger226 said:

Seen a proposed trade with  Washington that brought back Chase Young, Jahan Dobson/WR and a second round pick and future 2024 # 1  pick. Plus pick 15. 

Would you do that ?

Why would Washington do that? Get a QB and would then have money to pay Payne.

Chase Young tore his ACL in 2021 and only played in 3 games in 2022. Huge red flag. You have no clue what you are getting there. 

Dotson is ok, but at 5'11" 180 is too similar to Mooney for my liking.

To move down that far, I would be looking at Sweat and McLaurin.  To move out of the top 10 would require a king's ransom.

 

They have already talked about going with Howell, so we will see. 

To me, the realistic trading partners are HOU, IND, LVR, ATL, CAR, TEN, and NYJ. 

[Stinger226]

1 hour ago, adam said:

Chase Young tore his ACL in 2021 and only played in 3 games in 2022. Huge red flag. You have no clue what you are getting there. 

Dotson is ok, but at 5'11" 180 is too similar to Mooney for my liking.

To move down that far, I would be looking at Sweat and McLaurin.  To move out of the top 10 would require a king's ransom.

 

They have already talked about going with Howell, so we will see. 

To me, the realistic trading partners are HOU, IND, LVR, ATL, CAR, TEN, and NYJ. 

Not sure an ACL tear isn't recoverable. I think once healthy, good to go. He's not a RB or WR.

[adam]

2 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

Not sure an ACL tear isn't recoverable. I think once healthy, good to go. He's not a RB or WR.

Sure, but when you are that high of a draft pick and the team is undecided and may not even pick up your 5th year option is very concerning. They have the most info on him and if they are on the fence, taking him in lieu of a draft pick seems unwise.

Not that he can't recover, but a lot of red flags for such a high draft pick.

[AZ54]

This whole Wash trade proposal was some Wash fan's fantasy trade/draft.  In a quiet week for real draft news Bears fans latched onto it.  IMO any deal with Wash their offer has to start with McLaurin.  Without him in the deal I don't think Poles should talk with them.     

[Stinger226]

48 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

This whole Wash trade proposal was some Wash fan's fantasy trade/draft.  In a quiet week for real draft news Bears fans latched onto it.  IMO any deal with Wash their offer has to start with McLaurin.  Without him in the deal I don't think Poles should talk with them.     

Not sure any team that's drafting a QB is gives WRs away in a trade. 

The most realistic trade I've seen to drop to 2 is, pick 2, A second round pick and a future 2024 pick.If we drop farther down, they will add more pics obviously. Now if one QB stands out at the combine. It will cause a bidding war but all these outlandish trades are pretty unrealistic. If we can trade down twice, probably 3 extra picks this year and a couple next year is it. Not everyone is as stupid as Pace was.

[Mongo3451]

4 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

The most realistic trade I've seen to drop to 2 is, pick 2, A second round pick and a future 2024 pick.

I'd take nothing less than their 2024 1st rounder.  Then, fleece the Colts...

[BearFan PHX]

I suspect that the Colts know we have that option, and want to be able to choose which QB they take, so they will have to offer us enough that:

(their offer for pick #1) is greater than (their offer for pick #2 + what the Texans would pay to move to #1)

[AZ54]

4 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

Not sure any team that's drafting a QB is gives WRs away in a trade. 

The value of QB over WR is well known and it is far easier to find good WRs in Rd 1-3.   But eh, that's just not my problem  

[adam]

20 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

I suspect that the Colts know we have that option, and want to be able to choose which QB they take, so they will have to offer us enough that:

(their offer for pick #1) is greater than (their offer for pick #2 + what the Texans would pay to move to #1)

This is exactly what I was thinking but the comp has to be higher because the Bears can always trade with the Texans, then trade with another team behind the Colts.

So if they want to come up to #1 and leapfrog the Colts, they are going to have to pay for that plus something to prevent the Bears from trading with another team behind them.

[AZ54]

12 minutes ago, adam said:

This is exactly what I was thinking but the comp has to be higher because the Bears can always trade with the Texans, then trade with another team behind the Colts.

So if they want to come up to #1 and leapfrog the Colts, they are going to have to pay for that plus something to prevent the Bears from trading with another team behind them.

That makes a lot of sense.  If I'm Poles I'm letting teams, and anyone else watching who is talking to who at the Senior Bowl, see me chatting with LV/ATL/CAR GMs.   

[AZ54]

https://www.si.com/nfl/bears/news/colts-owner-follows-up-on-qb-comments-with-more-humor

[Mongo3451]

3 hours ago, AZ54 said:

https://www.si.com/nfl/bears/news/colts-owner-follows-up-on-qb-comments-with-more-humor

This is the longest I've ever seen an owner on "full tilt".  I'm a Bears fan, tried and true, but I'm kinda starting to feel sorry for the Colts fans.  They were all over it today on ESPN Chicago.  I'm starting to think it may be better to get a deal done before the draft so Irsay doesn't get squirrelly when the pressure of the draft ramps up.  It would also prevent Poles from making the mistake of getting too greedy.  Irsay and Ballard both know they are going to have to overpay, so negotiations should go smoothly if everyone plays nicely.

[AZ54]

Some of this can be bluster designed to show everyone else they shouldn’t waste their time trying to get the first pick because the Colts will match our beat it.  Best to just stay away.  
 

Ballard has gone from dream job with top QB to a spot where he absolutely has to get the QB pick right.   He literally cannot sit at 4 and risk all the top QBs being gone when he picks.   If he did he might be fired that day.  He  can’t trade with Houston and it makes no sense to trade to 3 with AZ and take who is left.  Go big or go home.  

[adam]

10 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

This is the longest I've ever seen an owner on "full tilt".  I'm a Bears fan, tried and true, but I'm kinda starting to feel sorry for the Colts fans.  They were all over it today on ESPN Chicago.  I'm starting to think it may be better to get a deal done before the draft so Irsay doesn't get squirrelly when the pressure of the draft ramps up.  It would also prevent Poles from making the mistake of getting too greedy.  Irsay and Ballard both know they are going to have to overpay, so negotiations should go smoothly if everyone plays nicely.

Yeah, it is also in the best interest for both teams to get a deal done before free agency starts. That way you sort of know what you will be working with in the draft. If that is an unknown until draft day, I don't think they helps either team. 

I am also hoping for a huge overpay by the Colts. My only concern is the Colts are not much better than the Bears right now, so can they afford to give up any draft capital to put a rookie QB on that team?

[Mongo3451]

8 minutes ago, adam said:

My only concern is the Colts are not much better than the Bears right now, so can they afford to give up any draft capital to put a rookie QB on that team?

Look no further than the Bears, Browns and Broncos in the last several years.

[Stinger226]

On 2/13/2023 at 1:46 AM, Mongo3451 said:

I actually would prefer it.  If I were GM, it would remove a little clutter and allow me to focus more down the road.  That time would allow for more conversations with other GM's and possibly nail some more great trades.

I don't think any GM has enough information to know who they want to draft right now. By a week before the draft there will be a mad rush to get that pick.

[Pixote]

Poles needs to be patient. No need to move too soon. Week before the draft? Night before the draft? Let the suitors for the pick ante up.

[AZ54]

1 hour ago, Pixote said:

Poles needs to be patient. No need to move too soon. Week before the draft? Night before the draft? Let the suitors for the pick ante up.

Mostly he just needs his draft board setup.  At least with the grading tiers.  We have so many needs we don’t have to be locked into any player or position.  Much of that will be known after the combine.   Free agency will certainly affect needs but my hope is we address all critical needs in FA.  LG for example is not a critical need but we could certainly draft  Whitehair’s replacement.

 I don’t even view WR as a critical need.    Probably DT, OC, and RT make my list.  WR LB CB are next tier.  

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, AZ54 said:

Mostly he just needs his draft board setup.  At least with the grading tiers.  We have so many needs we don’t have to be locked into any player or position.  Much of that will be known after the combine.   Free agency will certainly affect needs but my hope is we address all critical needs in FA.  LG for example is not a critical need but we could certainly draft  Whitehair’s replacement.

 I don’t even view WR as a critical need.    Probably DT, OC, and RT make my list.  WR LB CB are next tier.  

dont forget DE! Thats a top need.

[AZ54]

1 hour ago, BearFan PHX said:

dont forget DE! Thats a top need.

Agreed

[BearFan PHX]

3 hours ago, AZ54 said:

Mostly he just needs his draft board setup.  At least with the grading tiers.  We have so many needs we don’t have to be locked into any player or position.  Much of that will be known after the combine.   Free agency will certainly affect needs but my hope is we address all critical needs in FA.  LG for example is not a critical need but we could certainly draft  Whitehair’s replacement.

 I don’t even view WR as a critical need.    Probably DT, OC, and RT make my list.  WR LB CB are next tier.  

this is exactly it. its a process. they need to make their lists and rankings, both in the draft and in free agency as well as trade options. and then wait until the machine starts churning and make moves when opportunities present.

Free Agency is gonna change our needs a lot too of course, like you said. But they can chew gum and walk at the same time, so they will sign second tier guys too right away is the opportunity is there at the right price. usually, for second tier they wait for the value to fall tho, so youre right too.

[Stinger226]

3 hours ago, AZ54 said:

Mostly he just needs his draft board setup.  At least with the grading tiers.  We have so many needs we don’t have to be locked into any player or position.  Much of that will be known after the combine.   Free agency will certainly affect needs but my hope is we address all critical needs in FA.  LG for example is not a critical need but we could certainly draft  Whitehair’s replacement.

 I don’t even view WR as a critical need.    Probably DT, OC, and RT make my list.  WR LB CB are next tier.  

I think OL and DL are totally his purpose this year. He came from KC and Cunningham came from Philly. I think it's a  priority to fix the OL in free agency and let the draft take care of DE and DT . They will draft someone like Cody Mauch that can play anywhere on the OL . That way if injury or poor play comes into play they can plug him in. There are several OCs and RTs available this year in FA. So to get him it has to be in the second round by pick 54. So if we have 2 picks before that they will be DT and DE. We could upgrade everywhere but the strength of the draft is Edge so there we be a lot of options.