Interest for #1 pick heating up

[AZ54]

Just like selling a house, he has to already know he has enough buyers to demand they give him best and final offers early.  People will have to waive things like inspections or appraisal value.  

[AZ54]

Based on today’s press conferences  Swift is thinking the Panthers are all in to make a deal.  Anytime I’ve contemplated that big of a drop it was a double trade down scenario.  The old trade value chart suggests they give us 9, 39, and 61.  There would likely be a QB premium on top of that so maybe Poles gets next years first or second.  We’d end up with 9, 39, 53, 61, and 64 and then 102 to start day 3.   That’s ten picks in the draft without any additional trades.  

[BearFan PHX]

2 hours ago, AZ54 said:

Based on today’s press conferences  Swift is thinking the Panthers are all in to make a deal.  Anytime I’ve contemplated that big of a drop it was a double trade down scenario.  The old trade value chart suggests they give us 9, 39, and 61.  There would likely be a QB premium on top of that so maybe Poles gets next years first or second.  We’d end up with 9, 39, 53, 61, and 64 and then 102 to start day 3.   That’s ten picks in the draft without any additional trades.  

amen, as long as it includes a 2024 first rounder

[Stinger226]

4 hours ago, AZ54 said:

Based on today’s press conferences  Swift is thinking the Panthers are all in to make a deal.  Anytime I’ve contemplated that big of a drop it was a double trade down scenario.  The old trade value chart suggests they give us 9, 39, and 61.  There would likely be a QB premium on top of that so maybe Poles gets next years first or second.  We’d end up with 9, 39, 53, 61, and 64 and then 102 to start day 3.   That’s ten picks in the draft without any additional trades.  

Personally I would jump on something similar to that. 6 picks in the top 102 is better than the 3 we have. 

[adam]

7 hours ago, AZ54 said:

Based on today’s press conferences  Swift is thinking the Panthers are all in to make a deal.  Anytime I’ve contemplated that big of a drop it was a double trade down scenario.  The old trade value chart suggests they give us 9, 39, and 61.  There would likely be a QB premium on top of that so maybe Poles gets next years first or second.  We’d end up with 9, 39, 53, 61, and 64 and then 102 to start day 3.   That’s ten picks in the draft without any additional trades.  

https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart-Rich-Hill.asp?RequestTeam=chi

Here is the "new" trade chart. 

1 = 1000

9+39+61= 626, next year's 1st and 2nd = 429 + 626 = 1055

So that makes a lot of sense.

 

For CAR, can they afford to give up 5 picks in the top 61 over the next two years? I would be all over that because the Bears could use a combination of picks to move back into the back end of the first (if they wanted to).

[ASHKUM BEAR]

16 minutes ago, adam said:

https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart-Rich-Hill.asp?RequestTeam=chi

Here is the "new" trade chart. 

1 = 1000

9+39+61= 626, next year's 1st and 2nd = 429 + 626 = 1055

So that makes a lot of sense.

 

For CAR, can they afford to give up 5 picks in the top 61 over the next two years? I would be all over that because the Bears could use a combination of picks to move back into the back end of the first (if they wanted to).

I was happy to see the Bears end up at #1 overall more so to get the extra draft capital to bring in more players and do so for many years rather than take a generational player that can be hurt multiple times through theit career.  Look at Mack, we gave up a lot of capital and he made a huge difference at first but faded. 

[BearFan2000]

6 hours ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

I was happy to see the Bears end up at #1 overall more so to get the extra draft capital to bring in more players and do so for many years rather than take a generational player that can be hurt multiple times through theit career.  Look at Mack, we gave up a lot of capital and he made a huge difference at first but faded. 

That's what makes this such a golden opportunity to set us up well this season but also future seasons.  It's hard to ever build a team the right way when you're blowing draft capitol to try and find a quick fix because you've mismanaged the roster.  It's hard to build a deep roster when you're always mortgaging the future to fix the present.  What this franchise has needed is a GM to do the smart thing and think beyond the current offseason.  Poles is in an unbelievable position to change the tide here in Chicago. I for one (and I'm sure most of us here) want to see the Bears finally start accruing draft capitol for this draft and drafts to come, rather than enter the drafts with little to work with.  I don't want us to amass capitol just to amass it though, you have to be smart, you don't want to lose out on someone you really want just to get more picks.  I feel the same with our cap situation.  I don't want to see us spend like we just won the powerball, and it's a shopping spree.  I don't believe Poles to be the type to just blow it cause it's burning a hole in his pocket.  But he's in a position that most GMs dream about.  If we play this right we could really be in good shape now and in years to come.  

[Stinger226]

2 hours ago, BearFan2000 said:

That's what makes this such a golden opportunity to set us up well this season but also future seasons.  It's hard to ever build a team the right way when you're blowing draft capitol to try and find a quick fix because you've mismanaged the roster.  It's hard to build a deep roster when you're always mortgaging the future to fix the present.  What this franchise has needed is a GM to do the smart thing and think beyond the current offseason.  Poles is in an unbelievable position to change the tide here in Chicago. I for one (and I'm sure most of us here) want to see the Bears finally start accruing draft capitol for this draft and drafts to come, rather than enter the drafts with little to work with.  I don't want us to amass capitol just to amass it though, you have to be smart, you don't want to lose out on someone you really want just to get more picks.  I feel the same with our cap situation.  I don't want to see us spend like we just won the powerball, and it's a shopping spree.  I don't believe Poles to be the type to just blow it cause it's burning a hole in his pocket.  But he's in a position that most GMs dream about.  If we play this right we could really be in good shape now and in years to come.  

If we use what he did last year with only 5 picks and no first rounders, I would say I trust him to kill it. I think Cunningham stayed just to be apart of what happens this off season. I think all of these unrealistic mock trades and draft scenarios will cause people to be disappointed by the results of the off-season. I'm excited for free agency, it will set up the draft. I think he jumps on a  RT and DL and then looks more for value. I thing he adds a LB, Bobby Okereke but that's not going to be big money. Also a WR like Olamide Zaccheaus to play the slot. My biggest question is does he keep Patrick as the starting center and drafts one or signs a Ethan Pocic.

[Pixote]

I was just reading an article on NBC Chicago sports about the Colts trying to pretend they might be able to get their guy for QB by staying at #4. Then there was this quote that I am sure the Colts are concerned about.

Quote

On Tuesday, new Cardinals general manager Monti Ossenfort signaled that Arizona is open to trading out of the No. 3 spot.

That puts more pressure on INDY because if they try to stay put at #4 two QBs may be off the board before they draft, not just one.

Love it!

[Mongo3451]

9 minutes ago, Pixote said:

I was just reading an article on NBC Chicago sports about the Colts trying to pretend they might be able to get their guy for QB by staying at #4. Then there was this quote that I am sure the Colts are concerned about.

That puts more pressure on INDY because if they try to stay put at #4 two QBs may be off the board before they draft, not just one.

Love it!

I saw the interview where Ballard alluded to what you stated.  You could tell he was lying when he was saying it.  Ballard is a very stone faced guy and literally failed to hide a little smirk when  mentioning QB at 4.  I want to play poker with him now.

[AZ54]

1 hour ago, Pixote said:

I was just reading an article on NBC Chicago sports about the Colts trying to pretend they might be able to get their guy for QB by staying at #4. Then there was this quote that I am sure the Colts are concerned about.

That puts more pressure on INDY because if they try to stay put at #4 two QBs may be off the board before they draft, not just one.

Love it!

I saw that last night and smiled.   There is now no way he can stay put at 4 and even trying to wait for draft day to get a deal done adds more risk.   Ballard is now firmly between a rock and a hard place.   

[adam]

6 hours ago, Pixote said:

I was just reading an article on NBC Chicago sports about the Colts trying to pretend they might be able to get their guy for QB by staying at #4. Then there was this quote that I am sure the Colts are concerned about.

That puts more pressure on INDY because if they try to stay put at #4 two QBs may be off the board before they draft, not just one.

Love it!

Yeah this is the perfect scenario for the Bears. If ARZ's pick is in play, even if Houston considers going Anderson at #2, if the Colts stayed put they would likely get no better than the QB3 and possibly QB4. The only other option for IND is to trade with ARZ to move up one, but that still might only get you QB3 if 2 come off the board 1-2. 

[adam]

Poles confirms he has been in discussion for the 1st pick with 3 teams and says he can get a 2024 AND 2025 1st!

Quote

He said he had enough conversations about a deal to know in swapping first-round picks this year he can get “a ’24 one and a ’25 one” in a major package for a trade.

 https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2023/03/06/ryan-poles-chicago-bears-nfl-combine-draft-peter-king-fmia/?cid=fmiatw

 

Peter King said this about potential trade partners:

Quote

It’s crazy this year that there’s not a no-doubt quarterback in the group, yet there could be a frenzy to get to number one. Houston (picking two and 12), Indianapolis (four), Vegas (seven) and Carolina (nine), and possibly Tennessee (11) or Seattle (five), could all engage Poles aggressively.

My guess is the 3 teams are Houston, Indy, and Carolina, but to get 3 1sts, I assume it is Carolina. 

Carolina has 2x 2nd rounders too.

Would you do the #1 for #9, 2024 1st, 2025 1st, and #61? Unless you can guarantee you can trade down twice from 1 to 2 and 2 to 4, or 1 to 4 and 4 to something else, I think this would be a great haul, even if it is only a late 2nd. That would still give the Bears 4 picks in the top 64 and 3 picks within 11 picks from 54-64. 

They could then take the late 4th they got from the Quinn trade and pair that with the CAR or BAL 2nd and move back into the mid-40s in the 2nd.

 

[AZ54]

1 hour ago, adam said:

Poles confirms he has been in discussion for the 1st pick with 3 teams and says he can get a 2024 AND 2025 1st!

 https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2023/03/06/ryan-poles-chicago-bears-nfl-combine-draft-peter-king-fmia/?cid=fmiatw

 

Peter King said this about potential trade partners:

My guess is the 3 teams are Houston, Indy, and Carolina, but to get 3 1sts, I assume it is Carolina. 

Carolina has 2x 2nd rounders too.

Would you do the #1 for #9, 2024 1st, 2025 1st, and #61? Unless you can guarantee you can trade down twice from 1 to 2 and 2 to 4, or 1 to 4 and 4 to something else, I think this would be a great haul, even if it is only a late 2nd. That would still give the Bears 4 picks in the top 64 and 3 picks within 11 picks from 54-64. 

They could then take the late 4th they got from the Quinn trade and pair that with the CAR or BAL 2nd and move back into the mid-40s in the 2nd.

 

I'd call Ryan Pace in ATL and tell him the price has gone up.  

[AZ54]

Seeing rumors about a team further back than Poles expected inquiring about #1.  Speculation is that it could be the Titans at 11 which would likely include a player.  The one player we'd likely want is Jeffrey Simmons.   They drafted Treylon Burks and Nicholas Pettit-Frere last year.   

[Stinger226]

8 hours ago, AZ54 said:

Seeing rumors about a team further back than Poles expected inquiring about #1.  Speculation is that it could be the Titans at 11 which would likely include a player.  The one player we'd likely want is Jeffrey Simmons.   They drafted Treylon Burks and Nicholas Pettit-Frere last year.   

If any team wants a sit at a QB, I don't see them throwing in WR in the deal. It would stunt the QB growth. Giving a D player makes more sense.

[AZ54]

There is a lot more noise that a deal with Carolina is a realistic and likely option.   Poles said he has 6-8 Blue players and he wants to make sure he gets one of them.  If 4 QBs go ahead of us that means dropping back no further than 9 or maybe 11 (using realistic QB needy teams).    

Poles also said teams want a deal early before FA so they can plan, which makes sense.  That makes sense for us too.   Of course Poles said to make the move earlier like that will require a bit more compensation.   There is no doubt that Poles going public with all this in his interview with Peter King is using it as negotiating leverage.  He let 'em all know to get their best and final offer on the table now.   

I don't think Richardson is a good option for Ballard and the Colts because it appears the owner wants a more proven player who can step in this year.  You can probably say the same about Levis although he has more game experience.   At this point the world knows someone is drafting a QB at #1 and HOU at #2.   Unless they are really in love with one of them, there might be little point to Ballard trading up to 3 for either Levis or Richardson.   He's in a tough spot and the price for #1 is going up.   If I were him I'd be having a  conversation with the owner on if he'd be comfortable with the time needed to develop Levis or Richardson or does he want the QBs with the higher floor? 

There is some suspicion that Rodgers could end up a Raider which is why they are quiet in all this noise so far.  Don't upset the man by talking about rookie QBs.  Whoever falls out of the #1 bidding is likely to take the Cards offer at #3.  The Colts won't move beyond #4 so Raiders could be left out if they wait too long on Rodgers.  Getting rid of Carr to pick up JimmyG seems like a stupid move although it's cheaper.  If he's not an option I have to believe they will want to get into the QB draft hunt so you will hear more noise about "the Rodgers decision" this week.    

This is a fun week and from here we'll roll right into FA on 13 Mar.  

 

[TravD]

Lamar Jackson being tendered makes things interesting. Let's say the Raiders,  Falcons, Panthers, or Titans sign Lamar, then Baltimore enters the mix. They will need a QB, and will have a top 11 pick this year, their pick at 23, and 2 picks next year to deal with.  I'd take pick between 7-11 this year, their pick at 23 and a first next year. 

That aside, one quick news that came out was that the Falcons are not going to pursue Jackson. That was almost immediately. It makes me wonder if they are the team the Bears are supposedly close to a trade with for the first over all.

[BearFan PHX]

9 minutes ago, TravD said:

Lamar Jackson being tendered makes things interesting. Let's say the Raiders,  Falcons, Panthers, or Titans sign Lamar, then Baltimore enters the mix. They will need a QB, and will have a top 11 pick this year, their pick at 23, and 2 picks next year to deal with.  I'd take pick between 7-11 this year, their pick at 23 and a first next year. 

That aside, one quick news that came out was that the Falcons are not going to pursue Jackson. That was almost immediately. It makes me wonder if they are the team the Bears are supposedly close to a trade with for the first over all.

Good stuff!

[killakrzydav]

Id trade number one overall for Jackson straight up and give him the deal he wants if I could get a top ten pick for fields. I love fields and want him to succeed but he, so far, is a loser. Jackson is a winner.  Like 70%of all games he has ever started. Sign me up for some winning.

 

[Mongo3451]

5 minutes ago, killakrzydav said:

Id trade number one overall for Jackson straight up and give him the deal he wants if I could get a top ten pick for fields. I love fields and want him to succeed but he, so far, is a loser. Jackson is a winner.  Like 70%of all games he has ever started. Sign me up for some winning.

 

Nobody on earth would do that.  Lamar Jackson isn't as good as everyone hypes him up to be.  He's already lost some of his elite speed and has had season ending injuries the last two years.  The Ravens know they aren't going anywhere with Lamar and proved it by the tender they gave.  He'll end up signing with the Ravens for the contract they want or they'll get the two first rounders they want.

[BearFan PHX]

42 minutes ago, killakrzydav said:

Id trade number one overall for Jackson straight up and give him the deal he wants if I could get a top ten pick for fields. I love fields and want him to succeed but he, so far, is a loser. Jackson is a winner.  Like 70%of all games he has ever started. Sign me up for some winning.

 

Ok so we will compare Justin and Lamar's stats for 2023 and 2024 and see where this bold prediction lands!

I will say this - every year Im on the record with some prediction I am sure of that turns out not to happen LOL and the same is true of anyone who sticks their necks out and actually makes predictions! So kudos to you for being bold, even though I think you're wrong!

I will say what you're right about tho - so far Fields is a losing QB. If we knew he and the team wouldnt grow, then it'd be easy to say you're 100% right. This has been the truth so far.

But we all saw him running for his life because the OL couldnt protect him, and the WRs were rarely open. Fields didnt throw a lot of INTs, so maybe if he had looked more "confident" and gotten the ball out earlier, he'd have been throwing to WRs who didnt get separation, and some % of those throws would have been picks.

But the name of the gmae here is to predict the future, and I dont think many people expect Fields to be the same QB he was in 2022 in 2023. That's the question here. I think you're wrong, but of course until it happens, no one can really know.

Fair?

Oh, and even though we all agree there werent enough of them, here are a bunch of examples of Fields being a great passer.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PTHoUrjAUrs

[killakrzydav]

I'd put a couple of bucks on it too. Whichever team Jackson plays for next year will have a better record than the Bears. Without Jackson, Baltimore are losers as well. Call yo bet of stfu.

[BearFan PHX]

26 minutes ago, killakrzydav said:

I'd put a couple of bucks on it too. Whichever team Jackson plays for next year will have a better record than the Bears. Without Jackson, Baltimore are losers as well. Call yo bet of stfu.

lol no one going to stfu, cuz thats the whole point of this board - sports talk!

But I think the question is QBR or fantasy points from each QB, not just record, which relies on defense too?

[Stinger226]

32 minutes ago, killakrzydav said:

I'd put a couple of bucks on it too. Whichever team Jackson plays for next year will have a better record than the Bears. Without Jackson, Baltimore are losers as well. Call yo bet of stfu.

He's not going to Houston, A Jets type scenario happens. . Jackson is the real deal but Poles Is going with upside over 50 mil a year contract. If we were closer to competing, maybe but realistically 2 yrs away.