Interest for #1 pick heating up

[killakrzydav]

17 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

lol no one going to stfu, cuz thats the whole point of this board - sports talk!

But I think the question is QBR or fantasy points from each QB, not just record, which relies on defense too?

I wasn't able to log into my yahoo(FF) account this year so fantasy has kind of passed me by unfortunately. I know dude wins. I know Justin hasn't yet. Isn't that the name of the game?

[BearFan PHX]

1 minute ago, killakrzydav said:

I wasn't able to log into my yahoo(FF) account this year so fantasy has kind of passed me by unfortunately. I know dude wins. I know Justin hasn't yet. Isn't that the name of the game?

totally. if Justin wins like he has, then he is a loser, but the real question is how will he play next year? As far as whats already happened of course you are 100% correct.

[killakrzydav]

I didn't mean stfu literally. I would prefer you put those coins up instead of running that Gator. We need more posts and people input on our team on this forum IMO. Sorry if you thought I didn't want you to post or something.

[BearFan PHX]

1 minute ago, killakrzydav said:

I didn't mean stfu literally. I would prefer you put those coins up instead of running that Gator. We need more posts and people input on our team on this forum IMO. Sorry if you thought I didn't want you to post or something.

nah its all good I respect you, and the point youre making! But i think Justin will be much improved next year.

[killakrzydav]

I'm behind Justin. I think it would be foolishness not to upgrade though given the opportunity.  That also does not mean I would take Alabama number one although I would if we didn't have Justin. 

[killakrzydav]

He gets it. Like the winning. It hurts him to lose. I want him to win of course. That's why I stand behind our QB

[BearFan PHX]

Just now, killakrzydav said:

He gets it. Like the winning. It hurts him to lose. I want him to win of course. That's why I stand behind our QB

^5

[killakrzydav]

You can't fake the anguish I see when he loses.

[Stinger226]

1 minute ago, killakrzydav said:

I'm behind Justin. I think it would be foolishness not to upgrade though given the opportunity.  That also does not mean I would take Alabama number one although I would if we didn't have Justin. 

I do think Young will be a good QB, but if Justin was in this draft, he would be the first QB taken.

[BearFan PHX]

we will know for sure after next year with an improved line and WRs who know the playbook better. if Justin doesnt ball out, then we will have two number ones next year to package to take a top QB next year, and there are some good ones.

Better yet if Fields does ball out, then we sign him long term and use those picks for Marvin Harrison Jr

[killakrzydav]

Nah, I think Bama would still go number one. 

 

Cmon man, Anderson might be a better prospect than Justin in this draft. He has like hundreds of pressures in his collegiate career. In Bamas system that's nuts.

 

[TravD]

I would have took Young and tried to trade Fields 100%. It's not about winning. It's the same reason I wouldn't want to touch Lamar.  Young has everything Fields needs to improve in. I honestly think that's what you need to be a long term successful QB. Fields hasn't shown he has the pocket presence, ability to read a defense, or calmness needed to succeed in the NFL. 

The situation he's been put in and how he is learning in the NFL reminds me of David Carr or Tim Couch. He's learning a bunch of wrong things due to the line being bad and the receivers. He's stuck trying to play like Lamar running, which has ended with Jackson not being able to finish the season the last two season. Once those legs go, you have to depend on being a pocket passer, which Fields has been regressing or at the least been stagnant at the NFL level, and what Young brings to the table to start.

Facts are facts tho, and they are staying with Fields. That's why I hope they trade down to the Jaxon Smith Njigba range, and get the top WR in the draft and someone he already has had success with. There are solid options in FA to upgrade Tackle in free agency, which I think is the top priority this year to get him progress and save what potential Fields had.  

[AZ54]

It is interesting that Fields and Lamar Jackson each threw for 2242yds last year.  I find it surprising that Jackson has only eclipsed 3000 yards passing in one season.  Fields still isn't on his level yet as he needed 3 more games to get that but he also doesn't have a Pro Bowl TE or any Pro Bowl player to throw to.   

I would like to see Jackson go elsewhere, to a team that will focus on his passing and pocket presence.  He has improved a lot as a passer, better than I expected FWIW, and too often I don't like the way Baltimore is using him on runs even when he is obviously injured.   If he played more like Mahomes and used those legs to buy more time behind the LOS I think his passing numbers would go up and his injuries down.  Coaches need to help him learn that and then run as last resort.    

[AZ54]

4 hours ago, killakrzydav said:

I wasn't able to log into my yahoo(FF) account this year so fantasy has kind of passed me by unfortunately. I know dude wins. I know Justin hasn't yet. Isn't that the name of the game?

Winning is the reason we play the game but for me this is very much a team sport across the board.  Stars in this game can only take a bad roster so far.  If Fields had played better, especially early in the season, we'd have won more games.  If his supporting case had played better in the 2nd half of the season when Fields was playing at a higher level, we'd have won more games.   There were 5 weeks mid-season where we led the entire NFL in offense and could only win one game (NE).  I can't see how that was the QBs fault.  

FWIW Jimmy Garoppolo has a 70% W-L record.   He's nowhere close to the talent Jackson or Fields are but, if that winning record is the QB standard, we'll see who pounds the table to sign him.   

[Stinger226]

6 hours ago, killakrzydav said:

Nah, I think Bama would still go number one. 

 

Cmon man, Anderson might be a better prospect than Justin in this draft. He has like hundreds of pressures in his collegiate career. In Bamas system that's nuts.

 

209 pressures in 3 years, that is insane. Hutchinson had a 128 in comparison and he played well this yr as a rookie.

 

4 hours ago, TravD said:

I would have took Young and tried to trade Fields 100%. It's not about winning. It's the same reason I wouldn't want to touch Lamar.  Young has everything Fields needs to improve in. I honestly think that's what you need to be a long term successful QB. Fields hasn't shown he has the pocket presence, ability to read a defense, or calmness needed to succeed in the NFL. 

The situation he's been put in and how he is learning in the NFL reminds me of David Carr or Tim Couch. He's learning a bunch of wrong things due to the line being bad and the receivers. He's stuck trying to play like Lamar running, which has ended with Jackson not being able to finish the season the last two season. Once those legs go, you have to depend on being a pocket passer, which Fields has been regressing or at the least been stagnant at the NFL level, and what Young brings to the table to start.

Facts are facts tho, and they are staying with Fields. That's why I hope they trade down to the Jaxon Smith Njigba range, and get the top WR in the draft and someone he already has had success with. There are solid options in FA to upgrade Tackle in free agency, which I think is the top priority this year to get him progress and save what potential Fields had.  

In comparison Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts didn't have their act together until their 3 rd year. Plus Fields first was totally wasted. I tink Young is successful but his size will catch up to him as far as health. Only a few short QBs had long careers at a high level. This is the year Justin takes off, if it fails, we will have draft capital to get a QB in the 2024 draft.

[TravD]

33 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

In comparison Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts didn't have their act together until their 3 rd year. Plus Fields first was totally wasted. I tink Young is successful but his size will catch up to him as far as health. Only a few short QBs had long careers at a high level. This is the year Justin takes off, if it fails, we will have draft capital to get a QB in the 2024 draft.

I'd side on disagreeing here. Daboll had a major effect on Allen. It turned out well for him, and he was able to repeat that success at the Giants with a QB they didn't want to offer a 5th year contract to, and just got generational rich today.

Hurts was also able to develop in a solid environment with great coaches, weapons and line.  My argument on fields, which I hope I am wrong being a Bears fan and Ohio guy isn't based on time, his ability or his qualities.

I think he was an excellent prospect coming out of the draft, and very talented in many way which he could grow. Instead of that being nurtured like hurts or allen, he was instead stunted and hampered by his talent around him and coaching. Nagy was a year of learning nothing positive. This year, the coaching staff had him running an NFL offense. After the bye, they were like just run and make the game fun.

I honestly feel that Fields has had 2 regressive years of learning compared to Hurts and Allen learning the position. I'm not saying Fields has not improved, just had time learning things he shouldn't to get by, by compensating for poor coaching and talent around him.  While Allen and Hurts were learning a craft from professionals, Fields was watching youtube videos and trying to figure out things himself, while losing touch with abilities that got him drafted in the first place. 

 

Edit: That's why I compared him to Carr and Couch, because I see them victims of being a QB on a expansion franchise, because that's basically what the Bears have turned to team into talent wise. 

[Stinger226]

1 hour ago, TravD said:

I'd side on disagreeing here. Daboll had a major effect on Allen. It turned out well for him, and he was able to repeat that success at the Giants with a QB they didn't want to offer a 5th year contract to, and just got generational rich today.

Hurts was also able to develop in a solid environment with great coaches, weapons and line.  My argument on fields, which I hope I am wrong being a Bears fan and Ohio guy isn't based on time, his ability or his qualities.

I think he was an excellent prospect coming out of the draft, and very talented in many way which he could grow. Instead of that being nurtured like hurts or allen, he was instead stunted and hampered by his talent around him and coaching. Nagy was a year of learning nothing positive. This year, the coaching staff had him running an NFL offense. After the bye, they were like just run and make the game fun.

I honestly feel that Fields has had 2 regressive years of learning compared to Hurts and Allen learning the position. I'm not saying Fields has not improved, just had time learning things he shouldn't to get by, by compensating for poor coaching and talent around him.  While Allen and Hurts were learning a craft from professionals, Fields was watching youtube videos and trying to figure out things himself, while losing touch with abilities that got him drafted in the first place. 

 

Edit: That's why I compared him to Carr and Couch, because I see them victims of being a QB on a expansion franchise, because that's basically what the Bears have turned to team into talent wise. 

I don't think this year was a regression, I think he has good coaches now. The nice  thing is , the regime supports him , so you be able to see the growth in real time. Daboll is great with QBs, I agree with that and not much around him. Poles is going to fix the Oline this off-season and add one more weapon. That will be enough for Fields to take a giant step forward. Its OK to disagree, that's what makes discussions fun. We can bring this up again once Poles adds blue chip players.

[AZ54]

https://www.profootballrumors.com/2023/03/jimmy-garoppolo-on-texans-radar

When I see this my first thought is the Texans plan to draft Anthony Richardson.  Sign Garoppolo and you have a caretaker for a year or two until Richardson is ready.  However, any of the other QB needy teams could take the same approach even if they trade up to #1.   

That of course would leave either Stroud or Young available at #3.  Cards want to trade back and most likely want a bigger haul than just dropping to #4 would give them.   Ballard has to sort out if he's happy with Levis as he might be the only option left.  There are plenty of reasons for him to be ok with that.  

Poles needs to go get his draft treasure chest filled up so we can watch this show from the bleachers.  

[BearFan PHX]

43 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

Poles needs to go get his draft treasure chest filled up so we can watch this show from the bleachers.  

agree!

[adam]

The best comp I've seen is Trubisky and Daniel Jones, check that out. 

One is making $40M per year, the other is about to be on his 4th team in 4 years.

[Stinger226]

13 minutes ago, adam said:

The best comp I've seen is Trubisky and Daniel Jones, check that out. 

One is making $40M per year, the other is about to be on his 4th team in 4 years.

Tells me they are overpaying for Jones. Probably don't have a choice. Daboll can help.

[Stinger226]

1 hour ago, adam said:

The best comp I've seen is Trubisky and Daniel Jones, check that out. 

One is making $40M per year, the other is about to be on his 4th team in 4 years.

Tells me they are overpaying for Jones. Probably don't have a choice. Daboll can help.

[Stinger226]

If we got 9, 39, 61, and 24, 25 number 1 picks for #1, would you do it?

[BearFan PHX]

18 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

If we got 9, 39, 61, and 24, 25 number 1 picks for #1, would you do it?

Ok I just looked at the modern trade value chart (linked below), and it says that compensation to go all the way to 9 is short by the value of another early 2nd rounder. They'd have to include a player.

Out first overall pick is worth between 1,000 points and 1,200 points (when there is a top QB available, a 20% premium applies). but let's call it 1,000 points

387   R1 P9
153   R2 P39
 86    R3 P61
149   2024 1st round pick (draft position (9) lower value by one round = R2 P41)
 65    2025 1st round pick (draft position (9) lower value by two rounds = R3 P73)
______
838 points, which is shy by 162 points.

R2 P37 = 162 points

so they either have to throw in a 2024 2nd and something, or a player to make that work.

#1 is worth a LOT, and 9 is only worth 39% of the value of 1

and all this if you DONT add in the 20% QB premium!
 

https://www.patspulpit.com/2018/4/21/17256758/2018-nfl-draft-value-chart-rich-hill

[Stinger226]

2 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

in a heartbeat. I dont think wed quite get that much.

I think for 9, wed get 39, and 2024 1st, but itd be either 61 or the 2025 first.

or put another way, we could get that haul, but we'd have to kick in a 5th back or something

It's all fantasy football until they do it. Might as well shoot high.