Trading Justin Fields

[adam]

So there has been a lot of media energy on this lately, so I thought it deserved its own thread.

It seems that the idea comes from a couple of data points, first Poles said during the Senior Bowl that they assess every position, every year, including QB. So from the trade Fields side, this is an indication that Poles is not all-in on Fields. That's it. On the flip side, Poles knows he loses some leverage if it is known that he is moving off the pick regardless. Also, Poles could be just talking about the QB position as a whole which includes backup and 3rd/PS QB. This to me is a weak argument to believe the Bears are considering trading Fields.

The next data point is with Fields being in his 3rd year, and a rookie would give Poles and Co. two extra years to build a SB contender before the rookie deal runs out. If that is the case, the Giants would not be extending Daniel Jones, the Bengals would look to be trading away Burrow, Chargers looking to deal Herbert, and Miami looking to trade TUA. If GB trades Rodgers, they have to get rid of Love too right, because he is entering his 4th year as well. I get that Fields has not advanced as much as some of these other QBs after two years, but guys like Allen didn't really hit their stride until Year 3.

There is some validity to the argument about winning on the rookie deal, however, 7 of the last 10 SB winners did not have a QB on his rookie deal. The last 3 winners with a QB rookie deal was Mahomes in 2019, Philly in 2017 with Wentz, and Wilson in 2013 with SEA. All 3 situations had pre-built teams where you could've plugged any QB in there and they would've been really good. 

The other discussion is that if you trade Fields and get some draft capital, that those picks + a top rookie QB is better than keeping Fields and trading down with the #1 pick. I think this one is complete BS for several reasons. First, if some other team is going to give you a 1st round pick for Fields, then they have to believe he is better than the current rookie QBs (debunking the whole idea), and if Fields is not good enough on this roster, why would throwing a rookie QB into it be any better?

Lastly, the other one I have seen is Poles is not tied to Fields, he didn't draft him, so if he has any doubt that Fields is/can be the guy, this is the best time to move on from him because who knows when the team will draft #1 again. I also think this one is weak. If Poles gets rid of Fields (say to ATL), and then Fields becomes a Pro Bowler, Poles will look worse than if he rolled with Fields and it didn't work out. Right now Fields buys Poles more time because if Fields doesn't work out, Poles should get the opportunity to draft his own QB.

I think Fields will get 2023, and if he doesn't improve, they can safely move on from him next offseason, which also makes more sense as the roster building would be entering Year 3 for Poles. 

Thoughts?

[AZ54]

I think this is mostly based on people figuring out what will generate the most clicks for them.  

[adam]

NFL.com has him ranked 13th for last season:

https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-qb-index-ranking-all-68-starting-quarterbacks-from-the-2022-nfl-season

That sounds about right to me. He improved, but still has more to go. If team improves around him AND he improves, the team is going to be a lot better.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

4 hours ago, adam said:

I think Fields will get 2023, and if he doesn't improve, they can safely move on from him next offseason, which also makes more sense as the roster building would be entering Year 3 for Poles. 

Thoughts?

I’m with AZ.  Much ado about nothing.  Fields has proven himself as a play-maker and a gritty leader.  Enough that others in the league have taken notice.  
 

Your mini-scenario above is probably the most credible as I suspect the Bears will trade back enough they could get at least one more 1st round pick for next year.  With that they could decide on whether they need to work towards a new QB or keep them for more building blocks. 

[Pixote]

If anything, the false rumors of us trading Fields and drafting a QB with our #1 is a mind game intended to force those wanting to trade up to sweeten the deal. We want Houston, Indy, etc... to think we might draft the QB they covet.

There is no way in hell we trade Fields this year. He is our starting QB for 2023, and will prove he is our future.

[Connorbear]

There is no way they trade Fields. They want to see how he plays with another off season and a better team around him. I agree with Pix. He'll prove himself and will be the Bears QB for the next 10 years. 

Peace

[adam]

Just for comparison, there are 10 QBs in their first two seasons to have less than 5000 passing yards, less than a 60% comp pct, and more than 20 INTs (20g min):

Eli Manning, Christian Ponder, Vince Young, David Carr, Derek Anderson, Colt McCoy, Justin Fields, Kyle Boller, Alex Smith, and Chris Weinke.

 

If you project Fields for about 3000 passing yards in 2023 and 9 INTs, he would be the 7th in this group of QBs to pass for less than 7500 yds, 60% comp, 30 INTs in their first 3 seasons (30g min):

Derek Anderson (49s), Quincy Carter (34s), Geno Smith (51s), Kyle Boller (47s), Vince Young (50s), Alex Smith (167s). 

 

There is only one QB that lasted 4 years, to have under 10K passing yards, less than 60% comp%, more than 40 INTs in at least 40 games: Alex Smith.

Extending it up to 12K yards, that brings in Eli Manning, David Carr, Sam Darnold, and Joey Harrington.

 

Fields really needs to improve quickly to get out of these groups as a passer as they are not favorable projections at this point in his career.

[Stinger226]

18 hours ago, adam said:

Just for comparison, there are 10 QBs in their first two seasons to have less than 5000 passing yards, less than a 60% comp pct, and more than 20 INTs (20g min):

Eli Manning, Christian Ponder, Vince Young, David Carr, Derek Anderson, Colt McCoy, Justin Fields, Kyle Boller, Alex Smith, and Chris Weinke.

 

If you project Fields for about 3000 passing yards in 2023 and 9 INTs, he would be the 7th in this group of QBs to pass for less than 7500 yds, 60% comp, 30 INTs in their first 3 seasons (30g min):

Derek Anderson (49s), Quincy Carter (34s), Geno Smith (51s), Kyle Boller (47s), Vince Young (50s), Alex Smith (167s). 

 

There is only one QB that lasted 4 years, to have under 10K passing yards, less than 60% comp%, more than 40 INTs in at least 40 games: Alex Smith.

Extending it up to 12K yards, that brings in Eli Manning, David Carr, Sam Darnold, and Joey Harrington.

 

Fields really needs to improve quickly to get out of these groups as a passer as they are not favorable projections at this point in his career.

His first year was a total waste of time. His rookie season was last year under good coaching. This will be the year he makes a jump. No way he's drafting a 5'10" QB to replace Fields.

 

[AZ54]

https://catcrave.com/2023/02/16/3-trade-packages-carolina-panthers-justin-fields/

https://bucsreport.com/2023/02/15/should-the-buccaneers-trade-for-justin-fields/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=should-the-buccaneers-trade-for-justin-fields

 

 

[AZ54]

4 hours ago, adam said:

Just for comparison, there are 10 QBs in their first two seasons to have less than 5000 passing yards, less than a 60% comp pct, and more than 20 INTs (20g min):

Eli Manning, Christian Ponder, Vince Young, David Carr, Derek Anderson, Colt McCoy, Justin Fields, Kyle Boller, Alex Smith, and Chris Weinke.

 

If you project Fields for about 3000 passing yards in 2023 and 9 INTs, he would be the 7th in this group of QBs to pass for less than 7500 yds, 60% comp, 30 INTs in their first 3 seasons (30g min):

Derek Anderson (49s), Quincy Carter (34s), Geno Smith (51s), Kyle Boller (47s), Vince Young (50s), Alex Smith (167s). 

 

There is only one QB that lasted 4 years, to have under 10K passing yards, less than 60% comp%, more than 40 INTs in at least 40 games: Alex Smith.

Extending it up to 12K yards, that brings in Eli Manning, David Carr, Sam Darnold, and Joey Harrington.

 

Fields really needs to improve quickly to get out of these groups as a passer as they are not favorable projections at this point in his career.

I find it hard to fault Justin for year 1 when he wasn't even allowed to practice with starters before the season.  Nagy was just really stupid clinging onto any hope a vet QB would save his bacon.   I also don't know how many on your list had to deal with learning a new offense in their 2nd season so that is a valid input that will shift the data set.  Third, we have the supporting cast issue and how that compares to the others.  Let's leave those things aside and look at his play by quarter (4 games) of the season:

Q1:  Comp 51%, yds/gm 117,  TD 2,  INT 4, fumbles 4

Q2:  Comp 64.7%, yds/gm 182,  TD 5, INT 2, fumbles 7

Q3:  Comp 62.5%, yds/gm 147,  TD 6, INT 2, fumbles  2.  (only 3 games played due to injury)

 Q4:  Comp 70.6%,  yds/gm 175,  TD 3, INT 2, fumbles 2.  (only 3 games see below)

 I left out the 33% completion in the wk 16 Detroit game because of all the injuries and Fields himself couldn't play the following week.  In my business that data point is called a flier and doesn't fit the distribution of the data. For statistics lovers there are mathematical ways to prove that but I'm not that energetic and this is just football banter.  Plus the root cause for that can be explained. 

https://ontapsportsnet.com/bears/bears-rocked-by-injuries-in-detroit-justin-fields-michael-schofield-dante-pettis-teven-jenkins-jaylon-jones

If you look beyond the first quarter where he and his teammates were learning the new offense do you see enough to intrigue you about next year?  

Q2-4:  Comp 65.9%,  yds/gm 168, TD 14, INT 6, fumbles 11 (trending down).  attempts/gm 23 

Josh Allen 2nd yr:  Comp 58.8%, yds/gm 193, TD 20, INT 9,   attempts/gm 28.8.  

If Fields had 25% more attempts in Q2-4 to match Allen we could project... Comp 65.9%, yds/gm 210, TD 17.5, INT  7.5. 

 

[BearFan PHX]

42 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

I find it hard to fault Justin for year 1 when he wasn't even allowed to practice with starters before the season.  Nagy was just really stupid clinging onto any hope a vet QB would save his bacon.   I also don't know how many on your list had to deal with learning a new offense in their 2nd season so that is a valid input that will shift the data set.  Third, we have the supporting cast issue and how that compares to the others.  Let's leave those things aside and look at his play by quarter (4 games) of the season:

Q1:  Comp 51%, yds/gm 117,  TD 2,  INT 4, fumbles 4

Q2:  Comp 64.7%, yds/gm 182,  TD 5, INT 2, fumbles 7

Q3:  Comp 62.5%, yds/gm 147,  TD 6, INT 2, fumbles  2.  (only 3 games played due to injury)

 Q4:  Comp 70.6%,  yds/gm 175,  TD 3, INT 2, fumbles 2.  (only 3 games see below)

 I left out the 33% completion in the wk 16 Detroit game because of all the injuries and Fields himself couldn't play the following week.  In my business that data point is called a flier and doesn't fit the distribution of the data. For statistics lovers there are mathematical ways to prove that but I'm not that energetic and this is just football banter.  Plus the root cause for that can be explained. 

https://ontapsportsnet.com/bears/bears-rocked-by-injuries-in-detroit-justin-fields-michael-schofield-dante-pettis-teven-jenkins-jaylon-jones

If you look beyond the first quarter where he and his teammates were learning the new offense do you see enough to intrigue you about next year?  

Q2-4:  Comp 65.9%,  yds/gm 168, TD 14, INT 6, fumbles 11 (trending down).  attempts/gm 23 

Josh Allen 2nd yr:  Comp 58.8%, yds/gm 193, TD 20, INT 9,   attempts/gm 28.8.  

If Fields had 25% more attempts in Q2-4 to match Allen we could project... Comp 65.9%, yds/gm 210, TD 17.5, INT  7.5. 

 

Plus while the numbers do look good, they dont say anything about his other characteristics, like his speed, his leadership etc. And the arrow is still pointing up for Fields.

Justin is worth a LOT more than these laughable trade scenarios.

I agree there ARE trade scenarios that might shake Justin loose from the Bears - but theyd have to be blockbuster cant-say-no type of deals. Anything that's even close to fair wont work because of the heat Poles would take for doing it.

But yeah, to be silly, if someone offered TWO 2023 first rounders, a 2024 first and a 2025 first, we would probably take that pretty easily. Herschel Walker was a great back, but the 90s Cowboys will tell you that any player can only be worth so much before you gotta look at the price seriously.

Now do i expect any team to offer 4 firsts? Nope. So Justin will stay a Bear for 2023.

But listening to these offers, and letting the rumors go, surely doesn't hurt the trade value of our #1 pick. So let the rumors fly! Maybe someone will be dumb enough to offer the four 1st rounders. or three of them for pick #1

[Stinger226]

All the draftable Qbs are just ( might be good) prospects. Justin Fields has leadership , uncanny speed and power for a QB, great runner, strong arm, size and great work ethic. Young appears to be a good QB as far as skills, but his size leaves to many questions for durability. If your betting on futures , Justin is easily your best option. Poles is running with Fields and expects him to take a step up this year. Why would he want to build a culture and then tear it down by getting rid of your best leader? Sports journalists are just trying to get attention by suggesting we trade him.

[adam]

I will say that Fields may be the most athletic QB ever. Name a better one with his size and speed? He is just as fast as Lamar or Vick, but is a lot stronger. All he has to do is be an average passer and he would be in the mix for MVP and OPOY every year. 

There was an article about the routes that WRs ran with Fields his rookie year with Nagy vs Getsy. The biggest difference was Getsy ran barely any slants, digs, or curls, basically all the in cutting routes where the throws are between the hashes. This would automatically reduce the number of INTs because there is more chances of one with a bad throw. They need to open this back up this year.

 

[Pixote]

9 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

Justin is worth a LOT more than these laughable trade scenarios.

I agree there ARE trade scenarios that might shake Justin loose from the Bears - but theyd have to be blockbuster cant-say-no type of deals. Anything that's even close to fair wont work because of the heat Poles would take for doing it.

But yeah, to be silly, if someone offered TWO 2023 first rounders, a 2024 first and a 2025 first, we would probably take that pretty easily. Herschel Walker was a great back, but the 90s Cowboys will tell you that any player can only be worth so much before you gotta look at the price seriously.

Now do i expect any team to offer 4 firsts? Nope. So Justin will stay a Bear for 2023.

If Poles even remotely considered those trade scenarios mentioned in the quoted articles for CAR & TBB he should be fired, along with the new President of the team for allowing him to do so. The idiots who dreamed up those articles should find another profession. I agree, never say never. As you said, 4 1st round selections would have to cause one to pause and take a step back to evaluate the pros and cons.

Bottom line is, Fields is a Chicago Bear and I pray he has a HOF career (and I'm still around to watch him be inducted.)

[Stinger226]

13 minutes ago, Pixote said:

If Poles even remotely considered those trade scenarios mentioned in the quoted articles for CAR & TBB he should be fired, along with the new President of the team for allowing him to do so. The idiots who dreamed up those articles should find another profession. I agree, never say never. As you said, 4 1st round selections would have to cause one to pause and take a step back to evaluate the pros and cons.

Bottom line is, Fields is a Chicago Bear and I pray he has a HOF career (and I'm still around to watch him be inducted.)

He totally ain't trading Justin. All these so called experts suggesting that is just for attention. No one is offering 4 first round picks for him either. 

[Mongo3451]

2 hours ago, adam said:

There was an article about the routes that WRs ran with Fields his rookie year with Nagy vs Getsy. The biggest difference was Getsy ran barely any slants, digs, or curls, basically all the in cutting routes where the throws are between the hashes

He a shown that he can't make those throws yet.  His release is still slow to go along with him telegraphing it.  The DL has all the time they need to get their hands up in the perfect place.  He must fix that.

[Stinger226]

57 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

He a shown that he can't make those throws yet.  His release is still slow to go along with him telegraphing it.  The DL has all the time they need to get their hands up in the perfect place.  He must fix that.

Granted, neither did Josh Allen. I don't think his release is slow , I think his decision to when he needs to throw it is the problem. Lack of trust in WRs makes him hesitate on his throws. I think he waits for WRs to get open more and takes to long to decide to throw.  He improved this year but has a lot farther to go. Highlight films are sometimes misleading because it shows his good decisions but watch them anyways because it shows you what he is capable of. 

[BearFan PHX]

5 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

Granted, neither did Josh Allen. I don't think his release is slow , I think his decision to when he needs to throw it is the problem. Lack of trust in WRs makes him hesitate on his throws. I think he waits for WRs to get open more and takes to long to decide to throw.  He improved this year but has a lot farther to go. Highlight films are sometimes misleading because it shows his good decisions but watch them anyways because it shows you what he is capable of. 

he was called slow in decision making, but he didnt throw interceptions. so youre right, he might just not trust the WRs.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

His last interview. He mentioned he hopes the Bears find a way to draft WR Jaxon Smith Njigba. They have that Burrow/Chase, Hurt/Smith, Tua/Waddle comfort level.  

Give him a slot WR like JSN and he will have one outlet he feels confident with.  I wouldn't be surprised if we trade down and then maybe back up for him.

 

 

 

[AZ54]

1 hour ago, BearFan PHX said:

he was called slow in decision making, but he didnt throw interceptions. so youre right, he might just not trust the WRs.

We don't even know if Getsy trusted the WRs on those routes.  Who did we trot out there to start the season?  Mooney, Pettis, ESB?  It's a well known fact ESB has poor route discipline.  Pettis a late addition to camp.   Mooney was a yes for these routes if you want your only good WR taking big hits from LBs.  

[BearFan PHX]

Im not even sure Justin really thinks he is the best WR option vs the NFL options - but he is his boy from college so hes giving him some love in the press.

Justin literally said he wanted him as the first round pick. At #1 or #4 that is insane, so i think Fields is just giving his guy some love.

[BearFan PHX]

1 minute ago, AZ54 said:

We don't even know if Getsy trusted the WRs on those routes.  Who did we trot out there to start the season?  Mooney, Pettis, ESB?  It's a well known fact ESB has poor route discipline.  Pettis a late addition to camp.   Mooney was a yes for these routes if you want your only good WR taking big hits from LBs.  

exactly. this isnt all Justin - its the whole team, and they were right too. Yet another piece of evidence that Fields is poised to make that next step this year. Now it is fair to say that it isnt real until we see it on the field, but this is the time of year for projections, and all projections are on the come. You cant wait until you KNOW who a player is at QB or they are no longer available. That's why we took Trubisky after only a few games.

The difference is int he people making the projections. Trubisky was a bad choice, and Fields is a good one. Or so I believe right now. 2023 will show it.

[lemonej]

The idiot that started all of this trade crap is former Dolphins and Jets GM Mike Tannenbaum and mind you he's a former GM for a reason. He is the idiot who traded for an aging Brett Farve. He started this on ESPN's Get Up saying the Bears should trade Justin Fields and draft Bryce Young. Now I see why he got fired twice.

I for one want Poles to continue to build up this roster while he has a qb on a rookie deal before he has to decide to pick up the fifth year option and also lets see what he can do in his second year in this offense. If there is not significant improvement then find his replacement and I am not opposed to the Bears using a mid round pick on a QB. For example if Hendon Hooker is available in round 4 I would do that in a heartbeat. He would have to heal up but, I like the idea of getting an upgrade to what is currently in house in the QB room.

[BearFan PHX]

20 minutes ago, lemonej said:

The idiot that started all of this trade crap is former Dolphins and Jets GM Mike Tannenbaum and mind you he's a former GM for a reason. He is the idiot who traded for an aging Brett Farve. He started this on ESPN's Get Up saying the Bears should trade Justin Fields and draft Bryce Young. Now I see why he got fired twice.

I for one want Poles to continue to build up this roster while he has a qb on a rookie deal before he has to decide to pick up the fifth year option and also lets see what he can do in his second year in this offense. If there is not significant improvement then find his replacement and I am not opposed to the Bears using a mid round pick on a QB. For example if Hendon Hooker is available in round 4 I would do that in a heartbeat. He would have to heal up but, I like the idea of getting an upgrade to what is currently in house in the QB room.

we should be glad - he's helping pump up the value of our #1 pick in trade. And for all we know he's doing that as a favor to someone or as revenge against someone else. Who knows? I doubt it's just idiocy - it's probably a planted "leak" - it's that time of year.

[Mongo3451]

Trading Fields would be dumb as hell.  He is serviceable, while on his rookie deal.  The way this draft should pan out, Poles should have an additional first rounder for next year's draft if he finds it necessary to get a QB.  The team bad would be built for the new guy.  Lastly, the USC QB will be the prize next year making it a benefit to wait.