adam Posted February 25, 2023 Report Share Posted February 25, 2023 I looked at 14 different 2023 Big Boards and recorded their top 10s. Using those slots, this is how the non-QB top 10 looks with the highest pick first, then number of times in the top 10: 1 Carter,DL,1-3, ranked 1st or 2nd, except 3rd once 2 Anderson,Edge,1-5 , ranked 1st or 2nd, except for one 3rd, 4th, and 5th 3 Murphy,Edge,3-10+, ranked in top 10 11 times 4 Johnston,WR,3-10+, ranked in top 10 5 times 5 Robinson,RB,4-10+ , ranked in top 10 10 times 6 Skoronski,OL,4-10+, ranked in top 10 8 times 7 Wilson,Edge,5-10+, ranked in top 10 8 times 8 Witherspoon,CB,5-10+, ranked in top 10 3 times 9 Bresee,DL,6-10+, ranked in top 10 2 times 10 Mayer,TE,6-10+, ranked in top 10 5 times Stroud and Young were in 13/14 top 10, Levis was in 7. Just using the consensus brain power, it looks like Carter is the pick for the Bears. If I had to redo this draft order for the Bears big board, it would look something like this: 1 Carter,DL 2 Anderson,Edge 3 Murphy,Edge 4 Skoronski,OL 5 Wilson,Edge 6 Johnston,WR 7 Johnson Jr., OL (new) 8 Bresee,DL 9 Addison, WR (new) 10 Smith-Njigba, WR (new) Thoughts? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinger226 Posted February 25, 2023 Report Share Posted February 25, 2023 3 hours ago, adam said: I looked at 14 different 2023 Big Boards and recorded their top 10s. Using those slots, this is how the non-QB top 10 looks with the highest pick first, then number of times in the top 10: 1 Carter,DL,1-3, ranked 1st or 2nd, except 3rd once 2 Anderson,Edge,1-5 , ranked 1st or 2nd, except for one 3rd, 4th, and 5th 3 Murphy,Edge,3-10+, ranked in top 10 11 times 4 Johnston,WR,3-10+, ranked in top 10 5 times 5 Robinson,RB,4-10+ , ranked in top 10 10 times 6 Skoronski,OL,4-10+, ranked in top 10 8 times 7 Wilson,Edge,5-10+, ranked in top 10 8 times 8 Witherspoon,CB,5-10+, ranked in top 10 3 times 9 Bresee,DL,6-10+, ranked in top 10 2 times 10 Mayer,TE,6-10+, ranked in top 10 5 times Stroud and Young were in 13/14 top 10, Levis was in 7. Just using the consensus brain power, it looks like Carter is the pick for the Bears. If I had to redo this draft order for the Bears big board, it would look something like this: 1 Carter,DL 2 Anderson,Edge 3 Murphy,Edge 4 Skoronski,OL 5 Wilson,Edge 6 Johnston,WR 7 Johnson Jr., OL (new) 8 Bresee,DL 9 Addison, WR (new) 10 Smith-Njigba, WR (new) Thoughts? I think Skoronski plays OG in the NFL so picking him with the first pick seems unrealistic to me unless we move back in the teens. I also they don't see a WR with the first pick. The first pick will be a DL . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZ54 Posted February 25, 2023 Report Share Posted February 25, 2023 I understand what you are doing and why but I don't like this format because it makes it hard to define the value proposition on where to trade down. Leaving the QBs aside is one thing but I guess we could call it the wish list instead of the board. I expect Skoronski will drop after the combine as it becomes more apparent he's a better fit at OG, likely 10-15 range. Same with WRs Johnson and JXN who is a slot WR, I'd guess both are 15-25 range. Regardless of JXN production in college I'm not taking a slot WR in the top 10. We have a gaping hole at CB why exclude Witherspoon? Daniel Jeremiah has already dropped Myles Murphy down to 18. FWIW he has Mayer all the way down at 26. With your list I'd say it will end up more like: 1 Carter 2 Anderson 3 Tyree Wilson 4 Witherspoon 5 Johnson Jr RT 6 Skoronski 7 Addison (better versatility for slot/x/y over Johnson) 8 Bresee 9 Keion White - his position versatility DE/3tech and he's a complete Flus type player 10. Murphy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted February 25, 2023 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2023 4 minutes ago, AZ54 said: I understand what you are doing and why but I don't like this format because it makes it hard to define the value proposition on where to trade down. Leaving the QBs aside is one thing but I guess we could call it the wish list instead of the board. I expect Skoronski will drop after the combine as it becomes more apparent he's a better fit at OG, likely 10-15 range. Same with WRs Johnson and JXN who is a slot WR, I'd guess both are 15-25 range. Regardless of JXN production in college I'm not taking a slot WR in the top 10. We have a gaping hole at CB why exclude Witherspoon? Daniel Jeremiah has already dropped Myles Murphy down to 18. FWIW he has Mayer all the way down at 26. With your list I'd say it will end up more like: 1 Carter 2 Anderson 3 Tyree Wilson 4 Witherspoon 5 Johnson Jr RT 6 Skoronski 7 Addison (better versatility for slot/x/y over Johnson) 8 Bresee 9 Keion White - his position versatility DE/3tech and he's a complete Flus type player 10. Murphy That is true, Young and Stroud are basically top 4 and Levis was around 6 or 7. My thought was envisioning Poles' draft board, which those QBs and Robinson (RB) likely wouldn't be on there are not nearly as high to be picked in the top 10. This list was basically the best available consensus players for the Bears to choose from at the top, and my list at the bottom replacing unlikely candidates with some others that made some of the lists. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted February 25, 2023 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2023 BTW, for those interested, this site does an awesome job of tracking mock drafts and big boards. That was one of the inputs I used. https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/big-boards/2023/consensus-big-board-2023 https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/mock-drafts/2023/consensus-mock-draft-2023 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinger226 Posted February 26, 2023 Report Share Posted February 26, 2023 As far as mock drafts go, usually around a hit of 40% of picks in the first round is what the best at it do . The top 10 will have a lot of D line in it , the Oline is not valued in the top 10. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killakrzydav Posted February 27, 2023 Report Share Posted February 27, 2023 Skor has really short arms. Really short. He’s not going to be a tackle at the next level. He could be a pro bowl level guard though. I take him around twelve in my mocks to play guard. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinger226 Posted February 28, 2023 Report Share Posted February 28, 2023 6 hours ago, killakrzydav said: Skor has really short arms. Really short. He’s not going to be a tackle at the next level. He could be a pro bowl level guard though. I take him around twelve in my mocks to play guard. Not sure a OG is best player available in the top 12. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killakrzydav Posted February 28, 2023 Report Share Posted February 28, 2023 Having twelve picks in the top 135 helps. Certainly a pro bowl player, at any position, selected with the twelfth overall pick is a home run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted February 28, 2023 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2023 Yeah I am no expert, just collating the major big boards that are out there. That is where Skoronski is listed. Not that he will go in the top 10, but he is on their top 10 big boards. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ASHKUM BEAR Posted March 1, 2023 Report Share Posted March 1, 2023 Looks like Jalen Carter can be scratched off our big board if reports are true he was arrested for reckless driving after a fatality. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZ54 Posted March 1, 2023 Report Share Posted March 1, 2023 Hadn't seen that but in the NFL world this is old news so I wonder how teams dropped him? https://www.profootballrumors.com/2023/03/arrest-warrant-out-for-dt-jalen-carter-in-connection-with-fatal-crash Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ASHKUM BEAR Posted March 1, 2023 Report Share Posted March 1, 2023 38 minutes ago, AZ54 said: Hadn't seen that but in the NFL world this is old news so I wonder how teams dropped him? https://www.profootballrumors.com/2023/03/arrest-warrant-out-for-dt-jalen-carter-in-connection-with-fatal-crash It is huge news today. I did not know this before. If they are now making the arrest, they were able to link him in the area possibly with cell phone records to pin him in the vicinity. Not sure how the NFL will handle this, but I am sure the Bears will avoid him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearFan PHX Posted March 1, 2023 Report Share Posted March 1, 2023 This makes it easier to look at a trade down past #4. There are some great "Second tier" defensive linemen out there, like Breesee, and they look even better when paired with additional players you'd get by trading down past #4. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChileBear Posted March 1, 2023 Report Share Posted March 1, 2023 1 hour ago, BearFan PHX said: This makes it easier to look at a trade down past #4. There are some great "Second tier" defensive linemen out there, like Breesee, and they look even better when paired with additional players you'd get by trading down past #4. This will, and should, drop Carter out of no 1 consideration. He's probably going to get a fine for speeding, wreckless driving, leaving the scene, etc., and then wait for the NFL to make a call. He's still gonna be drafted and probably be a solid player. But this really screwed him. The things we do when we're young and stupid. (as opposed to old and stupid)! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZ54 Posted March 1, 2023 Report Share Posted March 1, 2023 2 hours ago, ASHKUM BEAR said: It is huge news today. I did not know this before. If they are now making the arrest, they were able to link him in the area possibly with cell phone records to pin him in the vicinity. Not sure how the NFL will handle this, but I am sure the Bears will avoid him. "Police asked a Georgia athletics official to have Carter return to the scene; he returned at around 4:15am and denied speeding or racing. Police did not find Carter had been drinking." The fact they asked him to "return" indicates they knew he was there when they first arrived so the "left the scene" might be a reporter embellishing the story. The arrest charges are only for misdemeanors which is odd since they are publicly saying he was committing felony speeding or reckless driving. It's also interesting timing for the prosecutor to do this on the day the combine starts when they already had him available for 6 weeks. He was obviously cooperating with the police investigators after the accident and returned immediately when this news broke. There is much we don't know so I will give it time but it definitely will take him down boards. Details will determine how far but from a personal side this is a very difficult life lesson for him. I hope he learns from this and also has some good support to help him. https://www.profootballrumors.com/2023/03/arrest-warrant-out-for-dt-jalen-carter-in-connection-with-fatal-crash Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearFan PHX Posted March 1, 2023 Report Share Posted March 1, 2023 The more I think about it, the more I think that this might drop Carter into the second half of the top ten or fifteen. If so, that opens up all kinds of lucrative trade down scenarios that were deemed to have been too big a drop before. I dont mind a bad boy for a 3T. I think about players like Suh, Haynesworth, Donald, Sapp and more who were all bad boys. It fits the profile of an angry disruptive DL mauler. Did anyone see what Deion Sanders said last week about personality types? He said he likes his Defensive Linemen to be angry and come from one parent homes. Another anonymous defensive coach said "I like D linemen who have had to stab someone before to get their dinner" - I assume that is metaphor, but the point is that Offensive Linemen fold their clothes neatly and everything in their locker is at right angles. Their personality is to protect, work within a structure as a teammate, and create order. A defensive 3T is supposed to eat everything in front of him and create chaos, destroying that order. The good ones "play angry" If Carter falls, and we can pay less than a top 5 pick for him, I want him for sure. Trade with Detroit, get pick #6, pick #18, next years first rounder, and another 2nd or 3rd round pick this year to make the deal. Even if we need to give up next years 5th to make it happen. Of course it means Young goes to Detroit and we have to win the division from him every year. Then again, we have Carter to terrorize him and make him want to play baseball instead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZ54 Posted March 1, 2023 Report Share Posted March 1, 2023 On 2/27/2023 at 11:29 AM, killakrzydav said: Skor has really short arms. Really short. He’s not going to be a tackle at the next level. He could be a pro bowl level guard though. I take him around twelve in my mocks to play guard. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mongo3451 Posted March 2, 2023 Report Share Posted March 2, 2023 1 hour ago, AZ54 said: He is one of the reasons is like them trade out of the top 10. Edge is seriously deep this year. I said somewhere else that Van Ness reminds me of Hutchinson. A lot of people don't know him because he wasn't even a starter, due to some rule coach has about starting the older guys. The second and third rounds hold great value for RT, G, C, TE and CB. I'd love to have five or six picks in that area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ASHKUM BEAR Posted March 2, 2023 Report Share Posted March 2, 2023 2 hours ago, Mongo3451 said: He is one of the reasons is like them trade out of the top 10. Edge is seriously deep this year. I said somewhere else that Van Ness reminds me of Hutchinson. A lot of people don't know him because he wasn't even a starter, due to some rule coach has about starting the older guys. The second and third rounds hold great value for RT, G, C, TE and CB. I'd love to have five or six picks in that area. Supposedly he has played more 3T than edge. Maybe the Bears like him there? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mongo3451 Posted March 2, 2023 Report Share Posted March 2, 2023 38 minutes ago, ASHKUM BEAR said: Supposedly he has played more 3T than edge. Maybe the Bears like him there? I like him at edge. He'll have to get a little bigger for inside. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearFan PHX Posted March 2, 2023 Report Share Posted March 2, 2023 46 minutes ago, ASHKUM BEAR said: Supposedly he has played more 3T than edge. Maybe the Bears like him there? he sure does push people around! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinger226 Posted March 2, 2023 Report Share Posted March 2, 2023 13 hours ago, AZ54 said: I like that Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted March 8, 2023 Author Report Share Posted March 8, 2023 OK, if the Bears do move back to somewhere around 9 (CAR). Who are you picking at 9? Anderson, Carter, Wilson, Witherspoon, and Murphy are off the board as positional players. Is that the spot for JSN or do you go Paris Johnson? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted March 8, 2023 Author Report Share Posted March 8, 2023 The post combine consensus mock has the following players going in this order: Anderson, Young, Wilson, Stroud, Carter as the top 5. Then Gonzalez, Levis, Murphy, Richardson, and Witherspoon to finish the top 10. That leaves the next 5 as Paris Johnson, Quentin Johnston, Broderick Jones, Bryan Bresee, and Michael Mayer as 11-15. JSN is going 21 right now. So if the Bears go down to 4, they will get Anderson, Wilson, or Carter. If they go to 9, they will be looking at Witherspoon, Johnson, Johnston, Jones, Bresee, Mayer, or JSN as their options there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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