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adam

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Here is what I got after the draft w/o UDFAs. I still feel like the Bears could use an upgrade at TE (Allen), OL (Leatherwood/Eiselen), LB (Weatherford), and DB (Vildor or at Safety).

All the colored cells are the available slots, blue being filled, and red being filled but in need of upgrade. 

It looks like Poles raised the floor considerably across the board. The DL may have 6 new players from last year (out of 9), while the LB corps will have 4 new out of 6. That is 10 new players in the front 7. 

The worst players on offense are Allen and Leatherwood. On defense, it's Vildor or Hicks. 
Travis Ebner is the odd man out in the RB room. With Blasingame, there is only room for 4 backs. The RB room will have 3/5 new faces.

So DL, LB, and RB are the position groups with the biggest turn over. If the Bears want to add a veteran Edge, who do you drop from the DL group? Bell to the PS?

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2 hours ago, adam said:

Here is what I got after the draft w/o UDFAs. I still feel like the Bears could use an upgrade at TE (Allen), OL (Leatherwood/Eiselen), LB (Weatherford), and DB (Vildor or at Safety).

All the colored cells are the available slots, blue being filled, and red being filled but in need of upgrade. 

It looks like Poles raised the floor considerably across the board. The DL may have 6 new players from last year (out of 9), while the LB corps will have 4 new out of 6. That is 10 new players in the front 7. 

The worst players on offense are Allen and Leatherwood. On defense, it's Vildor or Hicks. 
Travis Ebner is the odd man out in the RB room. With Blasingame, there is only room for 4 backs. The RB room will have 3/5 new faces.

So DL, LB, and RB are the position groups with the biggest turn over. If the Bears want to add a veteran Edge, who do you drop from the DL group? Bell to the PS?

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Need to add Terell Smith, who I think makes the team over Jaylon Jones. Bump Bell to the PS for an Edge and probably Williamson too for a better 3rd safety. 

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Adding an asterisks to all the players that are under contract in 2024:

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Key Notes:

  • TE has zero players signed beyond 2023. I assume Kmet gets done soon.
  • WR2 and WR3 are both open for business in 2024 unless one or both of Mooney/Claypool sign
  • The entire projected starting OLine is signed thru at least 2024.
  • If you project Dexter and Pickens into the starting lineup, the only starting spots not signed in 2024 are CB (Johnson) and Edge on defense.
    • So in total, only 5 starting spots not signed for 2024 (TE, WR2, WR3, Edge, CB)
  • The Bears have 2 2024 1st rounders, so if they lock up Kmet and one of the WRs, it looks like Edge, WR, and CB will be priorities next offseason
  • The Bears still have the next wave of free agency to upgrade and fill holes with vets.
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44 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

I'm thinking we're good at G, LB, WR and corner.  A move TE, swing tackle and backup free safety are the big upgrade opportunities.  We're on the verge of BPA only drafts.

TE for sure, I could see DHC brought back for safety, maybe another vet Edge. I hope they upgrade at CB, Vildor is a huge liability.

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1 hour ago, adam said:

Cut and Paste fail, pasted right over him, he definitely bumps Jones down. Still feels like we need an upgrade, I don't know if Poles is sold on Vildor either.

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You know exactly what Poles thinks of Vildor based on all the draft capital he’s used at CB in the last year.  

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2 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

I dunno if they want to risk Bell on the PS, they might just get rid of Robinson if they sign a starting caliber DE.

I know Bell is apparently a great guy and all, and I saw where Corey Wooten speculated he might be more ready to play right away than Dexter or Pickens (which is . . . a take) and I’m certainly willing to see how he performs in preseason, but I have a real hard time believing the Bears are in serious jeopardy of losing Bell from their practice squad considering he’s a 6’1” DT who never had outstanding production, never even made first team in the Big South, and was a 7th round pick that was pegged as a UDFA by pretty much every draft expert I’m aware of. 

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37 minutes ago, dawhizz said:

I know Bell is apparently a great guy and all, and I saw where Corey Wooten speculated he might be more ready to play right away than Dexter or Pickens (which is . . . a take) and I’m certainly willing to see how he performs in preseason, but I have a real hard time believing the Bears are in serious jeopardy of losing Bell from their practice squad considering he’s a 6’1” DT who never had outstanding production, never even made first team in the Big South, and was a 7th round pick that was pegged as a UDFA by pretty much every draft expert I’m aware of. 

as I was writing that, I sort of thought of that too, and you're not wrong. It's a fine point, and one I agree with.

It's just a gamble I guess if he starts to show up in the preseason. I don't know if he will amount to anything, or whether another team would want him bad enough to put him on the roster, but if you asked me today if I brought in a starting DE, and I had to cut Bell or Robinson, Id pick Robinson.

The rest is a gamble, the odds of which I think you're correct about. So you could be a tiny bit of a poker player to keep Robinson, and keep both, or you could be 100% safe and lose Robinson. And I'm just wondering about Robinson's worth on this roster if we bring a starting caliber DE anyway. He'd be #5 then I guess? Or even #6?

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What is fairly interesting is usually the last 2-3 spots on the 53-man are pretty fluid and there will be at least that many new players on the opening day 53 compared to today. 

So if you had to replace 3 players with say league average vets at their positions, who would it be?

 

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21 minutes ago, adam said:

What is fairly interesting is usually the last 2-3 spots on the 53-man are pretty fluid and there will be at least that many new players on the opening day 53 compared to today. 

So if you had to replace 3 players with say league average vets at their positions, who would it be?

 

Currently of the players in red or blue above it would be Bell and Williamson (who I’m pretty confident I can retain on the PS at this point) and Leatherwood (who has had his shot and doesn’t seem to be a league average guy). 

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35 minutes ago, adam said:

What is fairly interesting is usually the last 2-3 spots on the 53-man are pretty fluid and there will be at least that many new players on the opening day 53 compared to today. 

So if you had to replace 3 players with say league average vets at their positions, who would it be?

 

That's the perfect question for analyzing the strength and depth of a roster. i think right now, I agree Leatherwood would be one.

The other two, Bell and Williamson are probably the only other good answers (agree with you dawhizz) but theyre rookies, and we might like them better in September. They are unknowns, but their ceilings are probably higher than league average, so it's worth keeping them to see. neither are anywhere near a starter as of today anyway, which speaks pretty well of our roster.

Our holes are no longer needing league average players, so we have reached at least that level. We need some more dominant playmakers to be a real contender, especially on the DL, but we are no longer begging for league average types, so that's a milestone weve reached now.

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It's amazing how Leatherwood has underperformed.  As an Outland trophy winner and from Alabama, a guy who has all the prototypical tools and can't get it right, amazes me.  But that's how the NFL goes.  It's the best of the best of the best.

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4 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

I think  that what will be interesting is last years draftees. Will Braxton Jones, Brisker,  and Gordon be better? Does Velus, Robinson, Carter take a step forward. Some rookies will shine but most are on a 3 year growth to be good. 

To me, some of the signings, trades, and draft picks kind of tell you what they think about some of the younger players:

Wright > Borom

Moore, Scott > Velus

Foreman, Johnson, Homer > Ebner

They basically bumped Ebner off the team. Velus has been bumped down to the edge of the roster. If he can't handle punts, but someone like Pettis can, Velus is a possible 53-man roster cut. Borom is not leaving, but was dropped to a swing tackle after starting several games.

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8 minutes ago, adam said:

To me, some of the signings, trades, and draft picks kind of tell you what they think about some of the younger players:

Wright > Borom

Moore, Scott > Velus

Foreman, Johnson, Homer > Ebner

They basically bumped Ebner off the team. Velus has been bumped down to the edge of the roster. If he can't handle punts, but someone like Pettis can, Velus is a possible 53-man roster cut. Borom is not leaving, but was dropped to a swing tackle after starting several games.

This is why Pace was bad.  I had hoped he would get it, but he just kept trading away draft capital to move up. Poles, so far knows the importance of those picks.  They might not need 10 picks a year once they are solid top to bottom, but then the key is to net future picks if they trade down.

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1 hour ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

This is why Pace was bad.  I had hoped he would get it, but he just kept trading away draft capital to move up. Poles, so far knows the importance of those picks.  They might not need 10 picks a year once they are solid top to bottom, but then the key is to net future picks if they trade down.

With CAR's first rounder in 2024 and second rounder in 2025, the Bears are set for the next two years to bring in 4 top starting caliber players. I do like that about Poles. Pace was always trading up, then saying you have to go up and get your guy. His guys were Trubisky, Shaheen, etc. 

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2 hours ago, adam said:

To me, some of the signings, trades, and draft picks kind of tell you what they think about some of the younger players:

Wright > Borom

Moore, Scott > Velus

Foreman, Johnson, Homer > Ebner

They basically bumped Ebner off the team. Velus has been bumped down to the edge of the roster. If he can't handle punts, but someone like Pettis can, Velus is a possible 53-man roster cut. Borom is not leaving, but was dropped to a swing tackle after starting several games.

Poles is filling needs. Borom didnt pan out so he grabbed a virtual day one starter at RT.

Moore was brought in because we needed a #1, its not related to V Jones. 

Scott was brought in to compete with V Jones, because Velus has yet to prove himself. Easily both can make the roster which just adds to depth if they both work out. I see Jones getting 6-8 touches of which I believe will get you one wow play a game. It that becomes reality, he will be a viable playmaker on this team. 

Johnson was the BPA available at that time of the draft. With the Johnson upside it easily pusher Ebner off the roster. Ebner didnt show enough to last on this roster. He missed out on his opportunity to get playing time. Poles brings in competition, any spot he had questions in, he added to it. If Johnson is real good, it probably pushes Homer off the roster. 

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21 hours ago, dawhizz said:

I know Bell is apparently a great guy and all, and I saw where Corey Wooten speculated he might be more ready to play right away than Dexter or Pickens (which is . . . a take) and I’m certainly willing to see how he performs in preseason, but I have a real hard time believing the Bears are in serious jeopardy of losing Bell from their practice squad considering he’s a 6’1” DT who never had outstanding production, never even made first team in the Big South, and was a 7th round pick that was pegged as a UDFA by pretty much every draft expert I’m aware of. 

I have no idea what Corey Wooten sees but IMO there is zero chance Bell is the best of our 3 rookie DTs.  

Gervon Dexter had 23 solo, 55 tot tackles in the SEC

Zacch Pickens had 22 solo, 42 tot tackles in the SEC

Travis Bell had just 16 solo, 32 tot tackles in some conference I don't know

I don't even know why we drafted him instead of just signing him as a UDFA.  I've come to accept the fact we used a 7th Rd pick on a "glue guy" who will help the other 2 rookies with his leadership, work ethic, and hustle on the field.  That's not necessarily a bad thing either with such a young roster because both Dexter and Pickens have 1st Rd talent if they can put it all together.  You can say that's why we have coaches but there are severe limitations on when they can work with players.  If Bell can add anything on the football field that's a bonus, otherwise he's the 24yr old glue guy who likely ends up on the practice squad.  

How much do Poles and Flus value having a few of these players?  Just look at Montgomery who they were willing to pay.  Replacing his talent on the field was not a difficult task but replacing him in the locker was a different matter.  IMO they were willing to pay him in large part for the leadership, at least for a couple seasons until we establish new leaders.  That may also be the top reason Detroit was willing to pay him and shuffle their RB room with Swift departing and Gibbs added.  In the end it appears we landed on our feet with Roschon. 

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Travis Bell is a virtual unknown to most of the football community. Poles drafted Bell on the premise that no one else could take him. He speaks highly of him for the same reason he drafted Pickens and Dexter, he likes his traits. (size is ignored)

No reason to think he will even make the 53 man roster but Poles has reasons for drafting him and am very curious to see him play. I believe he   didnt draft AA because he had a similar player he could get at the end of the draft. 

Cant wait to see if he is any good. another late round gem? Maybe so , he hit on Braxton Jones with the same kind of faith.

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3 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

Travis Bell is a virtual unknown to most of the football community. Poles drafted Bell on the premise that no one else could take him. He speaks highly of him for the same reason he drafted Pickens and Dexter, he likes his traits. (size is ignored)

No reason to think he will even make the 53 man roster but Poles has reasons for drafting him and am very curious to see him play. I believe he   didnt draft AA because he had a similar player he could get at the end of the draft. 

Cant wait to see if he is any good. another late round gem? Maybe so , he hit on Braxton Jones with the same kind of faith.

the numbers say no, but the heart says yes - so mayhe we get a Rudy situation lol

Sanborn wasnt even drafted last year...

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