Likely scenario at #9

[adam]

Based on everything I have read so far. I feel like the following is going to happen:

• Only 3 QBs will go in the top 8, which might give the Bears potential to trade down. Either Levis or Richardson could be available at #9.
• For defenders, Anderson and Wilson both will be gone before 9.
• I think Carter goes in the top 8. Seattle or Detroit.
• That leaves 2 other players selected before the Bears pick, if 4 QBs do go, then it is only 1 other player before the Bears pick.
• The top players remaining are: Witherspoon, Gonzalez, Johnson Jr, Skoronski, Jones, Robinson, JSN, and Van Ness.
• With those players listed, the Bears could drop all the way to #13 or #14 (depending on QB's selected) and still get one of them. 

Prediction: trade down, if no partners, draft Johnson Jr, if he is gone, they go Van Ness. 

[Mongo3451]

I truly believe that four QB's will be gone at eight.  There's too much talent in Richardson and Levis.  Nobody wants to pass on the next Josh Allen.  On a side note, I really don't understand why Levis isn't regarded higher than he is.  Dude is a stud.  To me, he's the best QB of this class.

[AZ54]

Saw a quote from Dan Campbell last night where he was asked about the QB position.  He gave the usual stuff about Goff being the guy but then awkwardly left the door open on needing a QB soon in the future because of Goff's age.  Don't be surprised if they grab Levis and let him sit behind Goff for a year.   

[Pixote]

2 hours ago, AZ54 said:

Saw a quote from Dan Campbell last night where he was asked about the QB position.  He gave the usual stuff about Goff being the guy but then awkwardly left the door open on needing a QB soon in the future because of Goff's age.  Don't be surprised if they grab Levis and let him sit behind Goff for a year.   

I would love it if they grabbed Levis with their first pick, I don't want anyone in the NFCN to pick Carter unless it is the Bears. I don't want a "possible" dominate 3T to worry about in our division. Let Seattle take Carter off the board to make it easy for us to forget  him.

[Stinger226]

I think other than the  Cardinals, anyone of those teams could pick a QB and that spot could be a trade back scenario. I think all 4  QBs are gone plus Anderson. That leaves 3 teams to pick Wilson and Carter. Probably gone. Do not count out a GM taking Hooker with a high pick, probably not top ten thou. I tink we could see Robinson, JSN, or A CB picked in that range also. If Philly wants Robinson, they have extra picks to trade up to get him. I think Carter makes it to us. 

[AZ54]

CB is the likely wild card in the top 10.  It's hard to gauge for me because I'm focused on other positions.   While I know there is  very good talent at the top of the draft the big question I have is how quickly does that talent drop off?  Teams might be thinking to get the CB early because they can get an edge rusher in Rd 2.   There's always a surprise in the top 10, or two.     

[ASHKUM BEAR]

3 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

I think other than the  Cardinals, anyone of those teams could pick a QB and that spot could be a trade back scenario. I think all 4  QBs are gone plus Anderson. That leaves 3 teams to pick Wilson and Carter. Probably gone. Do not count out a GM taking Hooker with a high pick, probably not top ten thou. I tink we could see Robinson, JSN, or A CB picked in that range also. If Philly wants Robinson, they have extra picks to trade up to get him. I think Carter makes it to us. 

I think Detroit takes Hooker with their 2nd 1st rd pick.  If he stayed healthy, he could have been in the talks for #1 overall.  

[dawhizz]

10 hours ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

I think Detroit takes Hooker with their 2nd 1st rd pick.  If he stayed healthy, he could have been in the talks for #1 overall.  

Not coming in as a 25-year-old rookie. 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

11 hours ago, dawhizz said:

Not coming in as a 25-year-old rookie. 

Maybe for #1 overall, but a QB compared to Deshaun Watson and was putting up elie numbers until he tore the ACL will garner some 1st rd consideration.  Be a perfect place for a team like Detroit who has Goff.  We will see in a few weeks. 

[AZ54]

How ironic would it be for this deal to happen on draft day and we end up with 17 and get 32 back from the Steelers.  Straight up that deal is a little heavy in our favor so we'd have to give back about 200pts in value on the traditional trade chart.  We'd likely do something with 64, maybe swap it with their 3rd Rd pick at 80.  Value-wise that'd still be in our favor but they are trading into the top 10 with a shot at "the best OT" in the draft so maybe they bite.  Or we have to toss in one of our 5th Rd picks and Trubisky.     

The easy trade value would be 9 for 17 and 49.  Then we'd have 17,  followed by a run of 49, 53, 61, and 64.  Cap that run off with the pick of the litter at 103, the first pick on day 3.    That's 6 picks in top 103 which is generally regarded as the area of the draft where you find starters.    

https://www.windycitygridiron.com/2023/4/11/23679565/chicago-bears-nfl-draft-pittsburgh-steelers-rumors-trade-back-from-nine-been-discussed-ryan-poles

[AZ54]

Had to force that Steelers trade 9 for 17/49 just to do a what-if scenario.  I think McDonald goes higher than 49 but there other Edge players available that I like.  I like Spears but should have drafted a CB there... Riley Moss who I think can fit our scheme well.  I realized my mistake and then of course the Patriots took him before I got to 136.   The only position groups untouched were LB and CB.  

[BearFan PHX]

I think we need to be looking for at least one blue chipper. We could take this year to build depth, but next year a lot of these guys could be replaced by our first round picks. So why bother to build depth as job one?

I love getting more picks, and I know that for some positions taking them at 9 instead of say, 14, is overpaying, but who cares if youre going to miss out on them by 17?

Maybe they will show me that I am wrong about Carter, and take the player. Id sure love to see him thrive - but again, Im getting excited about the position, not the player, not the value. I wish there was a perfect 3T out there who fit the value at 9, or maybe 6 and fell because of QBs.

I do see what everyone else sees - that the value is right for a choice of OTs at that point, and OT is certainly a position of need.

But I wish we had more to look at on the DL, both 3T and pass rushers for that 9 pick.

 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

23 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

I think we need to be looking for at least one blue chipper. We could take this year to build depth, but next year a lot of these guys could be replaced by our first round picks. So why bother to build depth as job one?

I love getting more picks, and I know that for some positions taking them at 9 instead of say, 14, is overpaying, but who cares if youre going to miss out on them by 17?

Maybe they will show me that I am wrong about Carter, and take the player. Id sure love to see him thrive - but again, Im getting excited about the position, not the player, not the value. I wish there was a perfect 3T out there who fit the value at 9, or maybe 6 and fell because of QBs.

I do see what everyone else sees - that the value is right for a choice of OTs at that point, and OT is certainly a position of need.

But I wish we had more to look at on the DL, both 3T and pass rushers for that 9 pick.

 

They say positional value goes QB, Pass Rusher, OLT, WR, and then shut down CB.  Lovies D never needed the elite CB so we can spare that.  The Bears pass rush starts at 3T, if Carter isn't available I'd take the best OT.  The OTs at the top are believed to be flexible to play either side. Why not break them in on at RT and if the coaches think they are best at LT and an improvement over Brax Jones, move them to the LT.  Braxton was interviewed and mentioned he is preparing to play either side. He prefers the LT, but wants to play.

 

[BearFan PHX]

I agree with all of that, but for example, is Kancey for real? Any edge rushers that might be there?

[AZ54]

I'm doing my usual scan of Youtube videos and apparently there are rumors, totally unsubstantiated of course, that Darnell Wright is our top target for RT.  Whatever little that is worth, taking him at 9 is too rich for sure so this could be noise surrounding the hope we can trade down.  Plus, for any trade down scenario you must have at least two, if not more, targets.   If we trade down, Darnell Wright or Anton Harrison?    I'd have high confidence at least one if not both will be available at 17.  Dawand Jones doesn't feel like a scheme fit for the running game but would we work around that?     

[BearFan PHX]

I think we are working options, and the trade down for Darnell Wright is definitely one of them.

[Stinger226]

9 hours ago, AZ54 said:

Had to force that Steelers trade 9 for 17/49 just to do a what-if scenario.  I think McDonald goes higher than 49 but there other Edge players available that I like.  I like Spears but should have drafted a CB there... Riley Moss who I think can fit our scheme well.  I realized my mistake and then of course the Patriots took him before I got to 136.   The only position groups untouched were LB and CB.  

Harrison and AA are day one starters. Harrison was  Stills is a high upside get . Stromberg is a sleeper, fits everything Poles looks for in a OC. Was there a CB of value at 64? I don't think we take 2 WRs in this draft. Wilson is a sleeper. Like all the names but never heard of Sims. Other than WR at 64 , I totally think this is how the draft will go  down. Heavy in the lines with a WR, RB, and TE.

[adam]

The more I think about the trade down worries me a little bit.

On one hand people say that we need to build with top talent, and when you are this high you have to take one. Then on the other hand, it's like, it's ok, trade down from 9 into the late first round so we can get a high second rounder (who won't be elite talent). 

I get that if you on your highly rated guys falls and you can get him later, great, but that is the only scenario I see that makes sense. I feel like once you get to the mid-3rd round, almost every guy is replaceable by a guy on a vet minimum deal unless you get lucky.

 

[Stinger226]

58 minutes ago, adam said:

The more I think about the trade down worries me a little bit.

On one hand people say that we need to build with top talent, and when you are this high you have to take one. Then on the other hand, it's like, it's ok, trade down from 9 into the late first round so we can get a high second rounder (who won't be elite talent). 

I get that if you on your highly rated guys falls and you can get him later, great, but that is the only scenario I see that makes sense. I feel like once you get to the mid-3rd round, almost every guy is replaceable by a guy on a vet minimum deal unless you get lucky.

 

I agree to a point, but moving to 17 still gets you a blue chip OT, If it falls the way predicted, Brandon Thorn has him as the 4 th rated OT and could be pro bowl elite OT. Plus we get an extra pick with 49. If none of the second round or third round don't end up being blue chip, red would be fine. Above average starters in Poles rating system. We already got one blue chip player out of this draft in CJ Moore. That would be 2 blue chip and 5 red , that's a good draft. If we got this draft. I figured Spears and Stromberg as future starters to go along with the first 4 picks. Plus an extra number one next year. 

[Pixote]

I just watched a video by Swifty. He confirms what we have been hearing that the word is we are looking to trade down, possibly Pittsburgh as a partner. But what surprised me more was he said the Bears are bringing in ROT from Ohio, Dewand Jones as a top 30 predraft interview.

I know nothing but the stats I dug up.

Height - 6'8"
Weight - 374 lbs
Wingspan - 89.5 Inches!
Arms - 36 3/8 Inches
Hands - 11 5/8 Inches
40 Time - 5.35 

I've read positive reviews and negative. Is this a guy Poles might draft late round one if he trades down?

Have any of you guys watched this guy play? Would he be a good 1st, or 2nd round pick for ROT?

I'm guessing he'd be asked to drop 20 lbs. ?

[BearFan PHX]

RJ is a physical beast. He doesnt have the finesse and polish that PJJ has on the left side, but he has the physical tools to make any coach drool. Think Big Cat Williams.

There are lots of intriguing OTs this year, and RJ is definitely on that list.

[dawhizz]

1 hour ago, Pixote said:

I just watched a video by Swifty. He confirms what we have been hearing that the word is we are looking to trade down, possibly Pittsburgh as a partner. But what surprised me more was he said the Bears are bringing in ROT from Ohio, Dewand Jones as a top 30 predraft interview.

I know nothing but the stats I dug up.

Height - 6'8"
Weight - 374 lbs
Wingspan - 89.5 Inches!
Arms - 36 3/8 Inches
Hands - 11 5/8 Inches
40 Time - 5.35 

I've read positive reviews and negative. Is this a guy Poles might draft late round one if he trades down?

Have any of you guys watched this guy play? Would he be a good 1st, or 2nd round pick for ROT?

I'm guessing he'd be asked to drop 20 lbs. ?

Doesn’t seem like fit to me. My understanding is that the offense requires more mobile linemen. This dude ain’t that. 

[AZ54]

5 minutes ago, dawhizz said:

Doesn’t seem like fit to me. My understanding is that the offense requires more mobile linemen. This dude ain’t that. 

He's better on reach blocks than I was expecting.  In part that because he's got arms forever and his feet are more nimble than expected.  I'd say he moves better than Orlando Brown but he has technique issues, likely because he's been able to rely on his length and strength so far.  

[ASHKUM BEAR]

3 hours ago, Pixote said:

I just watched a video by Swifty. He confirms what we have been hearing that the word is we are looking to trade down, possibly Pittsburgh as a partner. But what surprised me more was he said the Bears are bringing in ROT from Ohio, Dewand Jones as a top 30 predraft interview.

I know nothing but the stats I dug up.

Height - 6'8"
Weight - 374 lbs
Wingspan - 89.5 Inches!
Arms - 36 3/8 Inches
Hands - 11 5/8 Inches
40 Time - 5.35 

I've read positive reviews and negative. Is this a guy Poles might draft late round one if he trades down?

Have any of you guys watched this guy play? Would he be a good 1st, or 2nd round pick for ROT?

I'm guessing he'd be asked to drop 20 lbs. ?

The Bears got to coach him in the senior bowl. They would know best on what he is capable of.  I believe he really shined well that week too.

[Stinger226]

Scheme fit is important in the draft. Would he or could he lose 40 lbs to be more mobile? Not sure they risk that with a high pick.Good players should succeed anywhere but to maximize a player is getting one that fits their scheme.  I think with the first pick, it will be a OL, whether they trade back or not. Unless Carter or Wilson drop.