2023 Schedule

[adam]

Week 1 - SUN, SEP 10.............. PACKERS.....................3:25PM .... FOX
Week 2 - Sun, Sep 17............... at Tampa Bay.............Noon ........ FOX
Week 3 - Sun, Sep 24.............. at Kansas City ...........3:25pm .... FOX
Week 4 - SUN, OCT 1................ BRONCOS....................NOON.......CBS
Week 5 - Thu, Oct 5................. at Washington...........7:15pm.....PRIME
Week 6 - SUN, OCT 15 .............VIKINGS .....................NOON....... FOX
Week 7 - SUN, OCT 22 ............. RAIDERS .....................NOON....... FOX
Week 8 - Sun, Oct 29 .............. at LA Chargers..........7:20pm ....NBC
Week 9 - Sun, Nov 5 ................ at New Orleans..........NOON.......CBS
Week 10 - THU, NOV 9 ............... PANTHERS..................7:15PM.....PRIME
Week 11 - Sun, Nov 19 .............. at Detroit ...................Noon ........ FOX
Week 12 - Mon, Nov 27.............. at Minnesota .............7:15pm.....ESPN
Week 13 - Bye Week 
Week 14 - SUN, DEC 10 ............. LIONS..........................NOON....... FOX
Week 15 - TBD............................ at Cleveland...............TBD...........TBD
Week 16 - SUN, DEC 24.............CARDINALS................3:25PM .... FOX
Week 17 - SUN, DEC 31 ............. FALCONS.....................NOON.......CBS
Week 18 - TBD............................ at Green Bay..............TBD...........TBD

I like the late bye week and it comes after a MNF game which would've been a short week. Two TNF games though, which sucks. No more than back to back away games. After the bye looks very favorable. Honestly, outside of KC as the 2nd of two road games, the schedule seems pretty favorable.  The only other challenging weeks will be going from home to LA to NO, then back to home on TNF. 

A quick look feels like 9 wins would be the target, splitting the division games, then getting 6 others (TB, WAS, CAR, CLE, ARZ, ATL), with other up for grab games (DEN (at home), LVR (at home), NO). LAC and KC being guaranteed losses plus losing 3 in the division for 5 losses.

What do you think? No PHI, SF, CIN, or BUF, which feels like 4 of the top 5 teams in the league outside of KC. 

[Mongo3451]

30 minutes ago, adam said:

What do you think? No PHI, SF, CIN, or BUF, which feels like 4 of the top 5 teams in the league outside of KC. 

Before knowing the schedule, I was thinking 8-9 tops.  I may change to 9-8 after thinking about it and seeing some pre season stuff.  Who knows what will happen with trades and cap cuts?  We have the clout to win in both arenas.

[dawhizz]

Outstanding. 
 

 

[AZ54]

That was well done.  

[adam]

Looking at it by opposing QB makes the schedule seem a little lighter:

Week 1 - SUN, SEP 10.............. PACKERS.....................Jordan Love  - W
Week 2 - Sun, Sep 17............... at Tampa Bay.............Kyle Trask/Baker Mayfield - W
Week 3 - Sun, Sep 24.............. at Kansas City ...........Patrick Mahomes - L
Week 4 - SUN, OCT 1................ BRONCOS....................Russell Wilson - L
Week 5 - Thu, Oct 5................. at Washington...........Sam Howell in Prime Time - W
Week 6 - SUN, OCT 15 .............VIKINGS .....................Kirk Cousins - W
Week 7 - SUN, OCT 22 ............. RAIDERS .....................Jimmy G - L
Week 8 - Sun, Oct 29 .............. at LA Chargers..........Justin Herbert  in Prime Time - L
Week 9 - Sun, Nov 5 ................ at New Orleans..........Derek Carr - L
Week 10 - THU, NOV 9 ............... PANTHERS..................Andy Dalton in Prime Time - W
Week 11 - Sun, Nov 19 .............. at Detroit ...................Jared Goff - L
Week 12 - Mon, Nov 27.............. at Minnesota .............Kirk Cousins in Prime Time - W
Week 13 - Bye Week 
Week 14 - SUN, DEC 10 ............. LIONS..........................Jared Goff - W
Week 15 - TBD............................ at Cleveland...............Deshaun Massageson - L
Week 16 - SUN, DEC 24.............CARDINALS................Kyler Murray  - W
Week 17 - SUN, DEC 31 ............. FALCONS.....................Desmond Ridder - W
Week 18 - TBD............................ at Green Bay..............Jordan Love - L

I count 9 wins and it could easily be 2-3 more from these games: (DEN, LVR, NO, DET, CLE, and GB).

[Stinger226]

I think the weakness of the schedule is games 8 thru 12 . 4 road games and a Thur game. If we can have a 3-2 record there , we will win 10-11 games. The key will be winning the NOs game.  Another key game will be the Denver game. Its a home game after a loss to KC. I think the thought of losing two games in a row will have us up for this game. Wilson is bad when pressured up the middle. I think by the 4th game the younger DT will start to ascend. Both of NO and Den will be keyed by TOs. Both of those QBs are capable of putting up interceptions. 

The games we have to be careful about is the high power Offensives. I dont see a lot of them on the schedule. KC, Chargers, and who else? Det and Minn? 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

Anyone see that KC was scared to play the Bears in Germany? It would be KCs home game and they feared there would be more Bear fans in attendance making it a difficult game to Win.

Now they are playing the Dolphins on 11/5 in Germany.

It worked out for me.  I am either going to KC or NO for a vacation game.

[adam]

1 hour ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

Anyone see that KC was scared to play the Bears in Germany? It would be KCs home game and they feared there would be more Bear fans in attendance making it a difficult game to Win.

Now they are playing the Dolphins on 11/5 in Germany.

It worked out for me.  I am either going to KC or NO for a vacation game.

Congrats, I was hoping for ATL in ATL as I am in Alabama. So Nashville and Atlanta are close for me. No luck this year for me. I could even do Jacksonville. 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

19 minutes ago, adam said:

Congrats, I was hoping for ATL in ATL as I am in Alabama. So Nashville and Atlanta are close for me. No luck this year for me. I could even do Jacksonville. 

It is fun to travel and see many other Bear fans invading a city.  I did Nashville on the covid year.  KC would be a 6 hour drive, NO would most likely fly, but Bourbon St has been a destination I want to do anyways.  Tampa would have been if it was later in the season.  I'm trying to hit an away game a year while I'm capable. 

[AZ54]

 

[Mongo3451]

8 hours ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

Anyone see that KC was scared to play the Bears in Germany? It would be KCs home game and they feared there would be more Bear fans in attendance making it a difficult game to Win.

Now they are playing the Dolphins on 11/5 in Germany.

It worked out for me.  I am either going to KC or NO for a vacation game.

They are actually wanting the Bears fans to travel to KC because we follow the team well.  Lots of money gets spent when the Bears fans come to town.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

59 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

They are actually wanting the Bears fans to travel to KC because we follow the team well.  Lots of money gets spent when the Bears fans come to town.

I figured that it was both, but the thought the Chiefs were scared feels better.

[adam]

The QBs the Bears will play this year:

Love
Mayfield
Mahomes
Wilson
Howell
Cousins
Jimmy G
Herbert
Carr
Young (R)
Goff
Cousins
Goff
Watson
Ridder
Love

Mahomes is obviously the toughest, but after him, Herbert, Cousins, Goff and Watson? The Bears have to beat Howell, Ridder, and Young, and should beat Mayfield, Love, Wilson, Jimmy G, and Carr. Those guys are mid (Mayfield) to unproven (Love). None of them scare me.

The Bears evade Allen, Hurts, Tua, Burrow, Jackson, Prescott, G. Smith, and D. Jones. 

The only QB in the top 10 for QBR other than Mahomes was Goff (5th). So 14 games against QBs outside of the top 10. That seems like a favorable schedule to me.

[AZ54]

5 hours ago, adam said:

The QBs the Bears will play this year:

Love
Mayfield
Mahomes
Wilson
Howell
Cousins
Jimmy G
Herbert
Carr
Young (R)
Goff
Cousins
Goff
Watson
Ridder
Love

Mahomes is obviously the toughest, but after him, Herbert, Cousins, Goff and Watson? The Bears have to beat Howell, Ridder, and Young, and should beat Mayfield, Love, Wilson, Jimmy G, and Carr. Those guys are mid (Mayfield) to unproven (Love). None of them scare me.

The Bears evade Allen, Hurts, Tua, Burrow, Jackson, Prescott, G. Smith, and D. Jones. 

The only QB in the top 10 for QBR other than Mahomes was Goff (5th). So 14 games against QBs outside of the top 10. That seems like a favorable schedule to me.

I’d bet every team we play has our game marked down as a win or at least winnable.  

[Mongo3451]

1 hour ago, AZ54 said:

I’d bet every team we play has our game marked down as a win or at least winnable.  

As they should.  I think every game, in our schedule, except two are winnable.

[adam]

W - GB 8-9, w/ no Rodgers (3-5 on the road last year)
W - @TB 8-9, Mayfield (@MIN week prior both teams travel)
L - @KC 14-3
W - DEN 5-12, (1-8 on road last year, @MIA the week prior, back to back away for DEN)
L - @WAS 8-8-1, w/ Howell at QB (TNF, @PHI week prior, short week, both travel)
W - MIN 13-4, unsustainable, roster gutted (mini bye for Bears, MIN plays KC week prior)
W - LVR 6-11, (2-7 on road last year, back to back home games for Bears)
L - @LAC 10-7, (SNF, play at KC the week before)
L - @NO 7-10, (@IND week prior, both teams travel)
W - CAR 7-10, no McCaffrey or Moore (TNF, vs IND week prior 325pm SUN)
L - @DET 9-8, Goff is still their QB (@LAC week prior, both teams travel)
L - @MIN 13-4, unsustainable, roster gutted (MNF, @DEN week prior, both teams travel)
BYE
W - DET 9-8, Goff is still their QB (@NO week prior, Bears with bye and no travel)
W - @CLE 7-10
W - ARZ 4-13, barebones roster tank mode (vs SF week prior)
W - ATL 7-10, w/ Ridder at QB (back to back home games for Bears)
L - @GB 8-9, w/ no Rodgers (@MIN week prior on SNF)

So I relooked the schedule, if the Bears split home and home with divisional teams (3-3), it seems like they can beat DEN, LVR, CAR, ARZ, and ATL at home, and beat TB and CLE on the road. The team with the best record out of all of them is TB at 8-9 and that was with Brady, not Mayfield. They still lose to KC, WAS, LAC, and NO out of the division. That is 10-7 beating only 2 teams with winning records from last year (MIN and DET). 

Looking at the division games, it does make sense. Bears beat GB Week 1, beat MIN coming off mini-bye, and then DET off their real bye. They lose to DET and MIN in back to back weeks right before their bye (in need of a break), then lose to GB the last game of the season as the Bears rest starters for the Wild Card game. Seeing that only one team can get a bye, the seeding from 2-7 is almost irrelevant anymore. 

PHI 15-2, SF 13-4, DET 11-6, NO 9-8, DAL 11-6, CHI 10-7, SEA 10-7

NYG 9-8 and WAS 8-9 beat up on each other in packed NFC East, GB and MIN both finish around 7-8 wins, ARZ goes 1-16, CAR goes 3-14 (Bears get 2nd overall pick), LAR goes 4-13, ATL goes 5-12.

CHI at DET (Bears win, Goff chokes and throws 4 INTs)
SEA at SF (SF wins)
DAL at NO (DAL wins)

CHI at PHI (Bears win, Jalen Carter extends 2 drives with bone headed penalties, Bears fans rejoice over taking Wright)
DAL at SF (SF wins, but Purdy gets hurt)

CHI at SF (Bears win against Sam Darnold, Trey Lance becomes a Bears fan, SF looks even dumber for passing on Fields)

CHI vs BUF (Bears win, Bills cannot stop Fields, who runs for 200 yards, Santos kicks GW FG, hits upright but goes in, the curse ends, this starts a BUF run of multiple SB losses.)

[killakrzydav]

I’m actually lowering my prediction one win from 8-9 to 7-10.

[BearFan PHX]

6 hours ago, killakrzydav said:

I’m actually lowering my prediction one win from 8-9 to 7-10.

either way youre in the ballpark.

I see this team having somewhere between 7 to 10 wins. Probably 8 or 9.

[adam]

If you look at this roster, the Bears played most of the season with only 3 defensive starters that are currently on the roster. So Week 1 this season will feature 8 new starters on defense, and at least 3 on offense from the end of last season. 

The offense is going from Claypool as the #1 at the end of the year to Moore, Mooney, Claypool

TE goes from just Kmet, to Kmet, Tonyan, and Lewis.

RB goes Monty/Evans to Foreman/Homer/Johnson

Mustipher is no longer the Center and they added Wright.

There literally has been no downgrades. 

[killakrzydav]

There’sa brutal stretch of Ls second half of the season

[Mongo3451]

10 hours ago, adam said:

There literally has been no downgrades. 

It's weird.  The only other times I can remember this happening were after our two Superbowl appearances.  One repeat chance ended with a Charles Martin body slam, while the other eroded away with "Rex Grossman is our quarterback".  This time around, we'll get to root for up and coming players.

[adam]

1 hour ago, Mongo3451 said:

It's weird.  The only other times I can remember this happening were after our two Superbowl appearances.  One repeat chance ended with a Charles Martin body slam, while the other eroded away with "Rex Grossman is our quarterback".  This time around, we'll get to root for up and coming players.

I think we lost a few guys to free agency after the Super Bowls, a few of the starters looking to cash in on the team's success. 

Like in 2007, we moved on from Thomas Jones (for Benson), Alex Brown was replaced by Mark Anderson. Nathan Vasher replaced by Trumaine McBride, and Chris Harris replaced by Adam Archuleta. All of those were arguably downgrades. So not many, but a few.

 

To replace Mustipher with a tackling dummy gains one win, to actually replace him with a league average player is like 2 wins. The LB Corps is the best in the league, and if Stevenson plays league average, the secondary is at least top 10. So if the Edge players produce (Ngaokue), there is no way the team cannot improve. 

[adam]

Updated predictions after two weeks of play. 

Week 3 - Sun, Sep 24 at Kansas City - L
Week 4 - SUN, OCT 1 BRONCOS - L (lost to LVR and WAS, so we don't know how good or bad they really are)
Week 5 - Thu, Oct 5 at Washington - L (barely beat both ARZ and DEN, who both could be really bad)
Week 6 - SUN, OCT 15 VIKINGS - L (Jefferson makes this a loss)
Week 7 - SUN, OCT 22 RAIDERS - L (this would be 17 in a row)
Week 8 - Sun, Oct 29 at LA Chargers - L (this will not be pretty)
Week 9 - Sun, Nov 5 at New Orleans - L (the 07/08/09 Lions lost 19 in a row)
Week 10 - THU, NOV 9 PANTHERS - T (could be a loss of Young looks good, this loss would be 20 in a row).
Week 11 - Sun, Nov 19 at Detroit - L (couldn't beat them last year)
Week 12 - Mon, Nov 27 at Minnesota - L  (Jefferson makes this a loss)
Week 13 - Bye Week - L 
Week 14 - SUN, DEC 10 LIONS - L  (couldn't beat them last year)
Week 15 - TBD at Cleveland - L (might be the best team in AFC North)
Week 16 - SUN, DEC 24 CARDINALS - L (2 losses by a combined 7 pts)
Week 17 - SUN, DEC 31 FALCONS - L (beat GB)
Week 18 - TBD at Green Bay - L (crushed Bears in Week 1)

There is a real chance at 0-17, there are only 5 potential competitive games that could go either way (DEN, WAS, LVR, CAR, and ARZ), that's it. So at most 5 wins, more than likely only 2 or 3. 

 

[Stinger226]

1 hour ago, adam said:

Updated predictions after two weeks of play. 

Week 3 - Sun, Sep 24 at Kansas City - L
Week 4 - SUN, OCT 1 BRONCOS - L (lost to LVR and WAS, so we don't know how good or bad they really are)
Week 5 - Thu, Oct 5 at Washington - L (barely beat both ARZ and DEN, who both could be really bad)
Week 6 - SUN, OCT 15 VIKINGS - L (Jefferson makes this a loss)
Week 7 - SUN, OCT 22 RAIDERS - L (this would be 17 in a row)
Week 8 - Sun, Oct 29 at LA Chargers - L (this will not be pretty)
Week 9 - Sun, Nov 5 at New Orleans - L (the 07/08/09 Lions lost 19 in a row)
Week 10 - THU, NOV 9 PANTHERS - T (could be a loss of Young looks good, this loss would be 20 in a row).
Week 11 - Sun, Nov 19 at Detroit - L (couldn't beat them last year)
Week 12 - Mon, Nov 27 at Minnesota - L  (Jefferson makes this a loss)
Week 13 - Bye Week - L 
Week 14 - SUN, DEC 10 LIONS - L  (couldn't beat them last year)
Week 15 - TBD at Cleveland - L (might be the best team in AFC North)
Week 16 - SUN, DEC 24 CARDINALS - L (2 losses by a combined 7 pts)
Week 17 - SUN, DEC 31 FALCONS - L (beat GB)
Week 18 - TBD at Green Bay - L (crushed Bears in Week 1)

There is a real chance at 0-17, there are only 5 potential competitive games that could go either way (DEN, WAS, LVR, CAR, and ARZ), that's it. So at most 5 wins, more than likely only 2 or 3. 

 

Is it fair to say I like being an optimist compared to actual thinking we could be 0-17. You say maybe 5 wins and right now I think 8-9 is still possible. I sleep well at night, how are you sleeping these days?

[adam]

3 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

Is it fair to say I like being an optimist compared to actual thinking we could be 0-17. You say maybe 5 wins and right now I think 8-9 is still possible. I sleep well at night, how are you sleeping these days?

I'm good with sleeping, I am immune to this team. I try my best to be fair and realistic. I would love for them to be great, it is really fun, but we have seen so much losing that more doesn't matter. In a way it is humorous at this point. 0-17 is a very real possibility if this is the same team we see week in and week out. If they play better and catch another team on a bad week, they can easily win a few. If they improve and maintain that improvement, they could win 5 or 6. However, anything more than that would be a huge leap as they should already have a win, so 7 wins is a 7-8 record the rest of the way. I am thinking 5-10 even seems tough considering they were 3-14 last year.