Anything comments

[BearFan PHX]

1 minute ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

The Bears need to draft Harrison Jr…AT ALL COSTS.  This was an incredible catch . While being tackled and with one hand. ???

MHJr and Moore would give us one of the best receiver rooms in the league.

[Stinger226]

I find it interesting that at today's OSU - Mich game 22 scouts from 13 teams are there. The bears don't have anyone there.

[Stinger226]

55 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

yes, but cover 2 specifically funnels all the tackles to the SLB spot. When you have a team that calls cover 2 as part of their defense, but not every play is cover 2, then the SLB totals will decrease. Also, if the defense can get off the field there will be fewer tackles to go around in general too, and that will be a GOOD thing.

And I didn't say anything about 3-4? There are all kinds of defenses you can run out of a 4-3 front, and we are in nickel most of the time anyway. But they still play cover 2, out of the 4-3 and nickel, most plays, and predictably. That's what will hopefully change with new coaches. This isn't the 1990s anymore.

Tony Dungy brought the cover 2 to prominence in the mid 90s in Tampa Bay. That defensive staff included Monte Kiffen, Rod Marinelli and Lovie Smith. Tony then went to Indianapolis and installed the cover 2 there. Eberflus was at the cowboys in the 2010s under Monte Kiffen, and helped install the cover 2 in Dallas, transitioning out of a 3-4. And Eberflus ended up in Indianapolis, because they were a cover 2 team and had been since Dungy was there.

You see these names over and over as related to the Cover 2; Dungy, Kiffen, Marinelli, Smith and Eberflus.

A few years ago, as the NFL had high powered offenses like the Rams routinely scoring 30+ points, Vic Fangio went back to the old(er) idea of having 2 safeties deep on more plays. That limited offenses abilities to make a lot of big plays. As a result, the copycat league saw a resurgence of cover 2 calls.

Everything in the NFL evolves quickly. Fads come and go. What works one season is already obsolete by the end of that season. You cannot base your defense on one concept and succeed for very long without adapting.

The truth is that there is no play call that is better or that always works. It'd be like saying "Rock is better than paper or scissors" Lets imagine that you have some statistical information that tells you that people pick scissors 40% of the time. Then, statistically, calling rock will be a winning move. BUT if your opponent scouts you and sees that you're calling rock all the time, expect a heavy dose of paper. If you dont make adjustments, you're gonna lose.

So there is no one play thats good on defense - you gotta mix it up. Create rhythms and expectations and then break them. Cover 2 is a great play and it should definitely be a part of your mix. But if you call it (or ANY defense) 85% of the time, you're gonna lose.

A lot of these coaches get stubborn - they have their way of doing things, and they dont adapt. And the coaches that do adapt beat them.

So you could see the Eberflus way, if he is given two more years, go to 9-8 and see a playoff game. If they execute on a high level, they might advance a round or two in the playoffs. But that way will never beat the top teams who adapt and do more than one thing.

We've seen it for so many years.

The best possible was the year Lovie snuck us into the Super Bowl, and there you saw how a real offense (Ironically head coach Dungy made the adjustments!) picked our cover 2 apart. We never had a chance in that Super Bowl, even with Hester spotting us a 7 point lead. No one but fans thought the Bears would win that game, and they didn't.

Contrast this with Belichick coached defenses that play all kinds of different styles year to year depending on who is on the roster. Watch how he plays divisional opponents twice a year and unveils a completely different game plan the second time they play that year.

That's coaching.

I'm not sure it's ( the Flus way). He's taken the defense that you gave the history on, handed down from Dungy that many successful coaches have run. He won't be truly successful at it until he gets a legitimate 3T, Dexter may grow into that role but not there yet. Edwards would be on he field no matter what defense is run. Maybe won't lead the league in tackles but good players get snaps. 

[BearFan PHX]

14 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

I'm not sure it's ( the Flus way). He's taken the defense that you gave the history on, handed down from Dungy that many successful coaches have run. He won't be truly successful at it until he gets a legitimate 3T, Dexter may grow into that role but not there yet. Edwards would be on he field no matter what defense is run. Maybe won't lead the league in tackles but good players get snaps. 

no Im saying you have to mix it up. There is nothing wrong with cover 2, but if you call it more than 85% of the time, youre gonna lose.

For every defensive play, there is an offensive play that will beat it. If you become too predictable on defense, offenses will eat you alive. it doesnt matter if you are predictably cover 2 or man or cover 3 or cover 4 or whatever.

Edwards is a good LB, and he will do well in any system. When we arent running cover 2 on every play he wont lead the league in tackles, but the defense will rank better in all categories.

[Stinger226]

30 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

no Im saying you have to mix it up. There is nothing wrong with cover 2, but if you call it more than 85% of the time, youre gonna lose.

For every defensive play, there is an offensive play that will beat it. If you become too predictable on defense, offenses will eat you alive. it doesnt matter if you are predictably cover 2 or man or cover 3 or cover 4 or whatever.

Edwards is a good LB, and he will do well in any system. When we arent running cover 2 on every play he wont lead the league in tackles, but the defense will rank better in all categories.

I guess my attention isnt as great as yours, I dont chart every defensive snap to know that 85% of what scheme he stays in . I  will have to start giving you more respect with that kind of passion for the game. T J was 6th in the league last year and I dont think they run the cover 2 most of the time. The leading tackler last year was a Miami LBer  and they ran a 3-4 Flores style defense. Im not sure scheme is always the reason some players make a lot of Ts.

[BearFan PHX]

I dont know why you want to fight about specifically everything I say. Thats up to you. Im really not interested in returning fire. Its dumb.

Im not even talking down Edwards. Hes great. I said so. In fact the whole reason we are talking about him on this thread right now is because *I* posted that he is leading the league in tackles and praised poles for dumping Roquan and getting the same production without him for a lot less $.

I also said, in addition to scheme funneling tackles to that position, that we have too many plays on defense in general, so that also inflates numbers. Leading the league in tackles isn't necessarily the sign of a great defense.

Somehow you took this as criticism of Edwards, of you, I dunno what. But its really getting old. I cant help it if your feelings are hurt by these facts. I couldnt have even imagined that they would have. I figured you were gonna agree. Naive I guess.

But I am going to continue to talk about the Bears here. I keep trying to ignore this one way fight you seem to be in with me. Soon Im just not gonna respond to you at all if you cant sort out your emotions. Either that or Im gonna stop being so polite about it and be more direct. Not mean, but direct.

Can I ask you, and I mean this seriously, NOT as a dig: do you drink while youre posting?

[Mongo3451]

Kiffen actually knew the cover two before Dungy.  Dungy got most of the credit.  Then came the Tampa 2, where the middle linebacker covered the deep middle.  Dungy took the lions share of the credit again.

[BearFan PHX]

2 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

Kiffen actually knew the cover two before Dungy.  Dungy got most of the credit.  Then came the Tampa 2, where the middle linebacker covered the deep middle.  Dungy took the lions share of the credit again.

Thanks for that - I thought Dungy was first, but youre right!

I also appreciate and agree about the difference between the Cover 2 and the Tampa 2. I thought when we got Edmunds that he would be playing that deep middle Urlacher style, but Eberflus couldnt even get that right.

Also, Edwards plays the Will of course, and thats the position that the cover 2 funnels tackles to. I had mistakenly typed SLB, and then I realized I meant WLB, and went up and fixed that.

[Mongo3451]

Mongo's tip of the week.

Bet the moneyline on KC and parlay that with the Bears outright and the over.  It will pay you 3-1.

[Stinger226]

5 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

I dont know why you want to fight about specifically everything I say. Thats up to you. Im really not interested in returning fire. Its dumb.

Im not even talking down Edwards. Hes great. I said so. In fact the whole reason we are talking about him on this thread right now is because *I* posted that he is leading the league in tackles and praised poles for dumping Roquan and getting the same production without him for a lot less $.

I also said, in addition to scheme funneling tackles to that position, that we have too many plays on defense in general, so that also inflates numbers. Leading the league in tackles isn't necessarily the sign of a great defense.

Somehow you took this as criticism of Edwards, of you, I dunno what. But its really getting old. I cant help it if your feelings are hurt by these facts. I couldnt have even imagined that they would have. I figured you were gonna agree. Naive I guess.

But I am going to continue to talk about the Bears here. I keep trying to ignore this one way fight you seem to be in with me. Soon Im just not gonna respond to you at all if you cant sort out your emotions. Either that or Im gonna stop being so polite about it and be more direct. Not mean, but direct.

Can I ask you, and I mean this seriously, NOT as a dig: do you drink while youre posting?

Since I broke my neck I may have had a 6 pack since August 23. I was just curious where you got the stat that Flus runs cover 2 85% of the time ? I will admit I was being sarcastic because I think you made that stat up but if Im wrong, i have no problem apologizing for that sarcasm.

[BearFan PHX]

54 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

Since I broke my neck I may have had a 6 pack since August 23. I was just curious where you got the stat that Flus runs cover 2 85% of the time ? I will admit I was being sarcastic because I think you made that stat up but if Im wrong, i have no problem apologizing for that sarcasm.

It's not a stat, for all I know it's 90%, I was speaking figuratively. I didn't intend it to be taken literally.

But it's easy to see while watching that we are in Cover 2 on most snaps. And the opponent knows it too.

[Stinger226]

1 hour ago, BearFan PHX said:

It's not a stat, for all I know it's 90%, I was speaking figuratively. I didn't intend it to be taken literally.

But it's easy to see while watching that we are in Cover 2 on most snaps. And the opponent knows it too.

That explains it , all I needed to know. 

[Stinger226]

Here is a video on the top WRs in this class. The talent is large. 

 

[Mongo3451]

The dude I watched from Washington last night is extremely talented, but raw.

[ChileBear]

1 hour ago, Mongo3451 said:

The dude I watched from Washington last night is extremely talented, but raw.

And he has had some injuries. 

 

[Mongo3451]

24 minutes ago, ChileBear said:

And he has had some injuries. 

 

Agree on the QB, was referring to his WR.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

Just wanna say this has been one of the best football weekends in recent history.  Three NFL games on Thursday. The first ‘Black Friday’ NFL game, rivalry college football Saturday (Ohio State vs Michigan being the highlight), more NFL Sunday followed by the ‘Beloved’ on Monday night.  
 

This post brought to you by Maker’s Mark.  ?

[adam]

19 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Just wanna say this has been one of the best football weekends in recent history.  Three NFL games on Thursday. The first ‘Black Friday’ NFL game, rivalry college football Saturday (Ohio State vs Michigan being the highlight), more NFL Sunday followed by the ‘Beloved’ on Monday night.  
 

This post brought to you by Maker’s Mark.  ?

Yeah, they really need to consider doing things like that more often.

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Just wanna say this has been one of the best football weekends in recent history.  Three NFL games on Thursday. The first ‘Black Friday’ NFL game, rivalry college football Saturday (Ohio State vs Michigan being the highlight), more NFL Sunday followed by the ‘Beloved’ on Monday night.  
 

This post brought to you by Maker’s Mark.  ?

hahaha it sure has been a great week, and happy holidays!

[adam]

This might not sound like progress, but the Bears are now 24th in DVOA, 25th on offense and 25th on defense. They haven't been this high all year. The teams behind the Bears: ATL, NE, NYJ, LVR, WAS, ARZ, CAR, NYG. The Bears 3 wins are in there, and they still play ARZ and ATL.

I don't know if anyone saw the CLE game but they did not look good at all. So that games looks much easier and the Browns may be without Garrett for a few weeks, or if he plays, may just be coming back from injury.

The Bears should've beaten both MIN and DET, so those games are also winnable. That leaves GB as the last game. So the Bears could easily go 2-4 or 6-0 down the stretch. Odds say somewhere in the middle, so 4-2 seems very realistic and would basically be a given with a win tonight.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

2 hours ago, adam said:

The Bears should've beaten both MIN and DET, so those games are also winnable. That leaves GB as the last game. So the Bears could easily go 2-4 or 6-0 down the stretc

I watched portions of the GB/DET game and couldn't help but notice GB deployed almost exactly the same game plan as did Chicago, especially on the defensive side (a lot of pressure on Goff and the offense -resulting in three TOs).  Problem is GB's defense was able to hold off Detroit. 

I'll be curious to see how Dobbs does after coming out of the gate hot for Minny before losing to Denver last week.  Denver is the common denominator for both Fields and Dobbs this year with their current teams.  Fields performance against them on October 1 resulted in him throwing 335 yards with 4TDs and one 1 INT (132.7 passer rating).  Dobbs did 221 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT (80.3 passer rating) on the 19th of November.  Tonight's game will come down to who puts more pressure on the opposing QB and how that QB and team adapt to it.  

As far as playing Detroit and GB again, I see that going 1-1.  We'll be at home for Detroit and should do as good as they did before but manage to win this time.  With GB I'm not 100% convinced the Bears will lose but I'm less inclined to think they'll win.  Love is having a weird season and appears to be leveling out as of late.  

[adam]

2 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

I watched portions of the GB/DET game and couldn't help but notice GB deployed almost exactly the same game plan as did Chicago, especially on the defensive side (a lot of pressure on Goff and the offense -resulting in three TOs).  Problem is GB's defense was able to hold off Detroit. 

I'll be curious to see how Dobbs does after coming out of the gate hot for Minny before losing to Denver last week.  Denver is the common denominator for both Fields and Dobbs this year with their current teams.  Fields performance against them on October 1 resulted in him throwing 335 yards with 4TDs and one 1 INT (132.7 passer rating).  Dobbs did 221 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT (80.3 passer rating) on the 19th of November.  Tonight's game will come down to who puts more pressure on the opposing QB and how that QB and team adapt to it.  

As far as playing Detroit and GB again, I see that going 1-1.  We'll be at home for Detroit and should do as good as they did before but manage to win this time.  With GB I'm not 100% convinced the Bears will lose but I'm less inclined to think they'll win.  Love is having a weird season and appears to be leveling out as of late.  

There is enough tape on Dobbs now.

First, I can't believe this is Dobbs 7th season. In his first 6 seasons he appeared 6 games, 2 where he was sent out to take a knee (lol). He started 2 games with TEN at the end of last season, both losses. Then went to ARZ this season where he started from Week 1. Somehow he beat DAL in Week 3, which was his first and only career win until he went to MIN a few weeks ago. So before MIN, he was 1-9 as a starter. Then came in for Cousins to finish the win against ATL, beat NO, then lost to DEN. 

The one thing about Dobbs, he will take off and run. In his 3 wins, he rushed for over 40 yards (55, 66, and 44) and has hit 40 yards in 4 other starts. So 7 of his 12 starts, he has rushed for 40 yards. So it will be imperative for the Bears to stop him from scrambling and getting first downs on scrambles. 

 

If Dobbs beats Fields, it pretty much speaks to where Fields is in his career arc.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

44 minutes ago, adam said:

So it will be imperative for the Bears to stop him from scrambling and getting first downs on scrambles. 

I think using a spy on him will help...and I think Sanborn is just the man.  

44 minutes ago, adam said:

If Dobbs beats Fields, it pretty much speaks to where Fields is in his career arc.

Meh...I'd still think this would be more on the defense being able to hold up and do their part. 

[BearFan PHX]

For those saying Eberflus has a top Defense, here are some stats...

The (seeming) good news:
Bears have the 11th best defense overall for yards allowed
Bears have the 2nd best defense for rushing yards allowed

The back to earth context of those numbers:
Bears have the 25th best defense for passing yards allowed
Bears have the 27th best defense for scoring allowed (which is the one that really matters)
Bears have the 32nd best (the worst!) defense for TD% in the Red Zone (teams score a TD 73.5% of the time on us)
Bears have the 30th best defense on 3rd down (teams convert 46.1% of the time against us on 3rd down)

So if we cant stop anyone on 3rd down or in the red zone, how do we have the 11th best vs total yards? It means poor field position because of the offense.

We are not the 11th best defense in the league. Teams convert and score on us as much as any team in the league. They were just somehow closer on average to the end zone when they started those drives!

Now by the eye test, I see massive improvement. The roster is growing in experience and you can see that on the field. I just can't in good faith give a lot of credit to Eberflus - mostly because, by the numbers - there isn't that much to praise.

I think the roster is getting good. I think we are so used to seeing awful football that something that looks like it has some hope looks really good to us. Wait for the next coach to come in, and hopefully then we'll see something from this group that makes what we're seeing this year fade into a memory quickly.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

25 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

Bears have the 27th best defense for scoring allowed (which is the one that really matters)
Bears have the 32nd best (the worst!) defense for TD% in the Red Zone (teams score a TD 73.5% of the time on us)
Bears have the 30th best defense on 3rd down (teams convert 46.1% of the time against us on 3rd down)

This right here is the difference between why the Bears are not 6-6 right now. Had they been able to hold the lead against Denver and Detroit we’d be talking a different tune. 
 

Granted the defense’s stats haven’t been great ALL season, they sure have been fun to watch these last couple games.