Anything comments

[BearFan PHX]

4 hours ago, adam said:

It actually helps the Bears playoff chances a little bit because it improves the Strength of Victory, which is one of the tie breakers. 

I stand corrected - every little bit helps - thank you Adam

[DABEARSDABOMB]

1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:

Some Robinson journalist reported that 7 GMs responded back to his survey about draft Williams and trade Fields  or keep Fields. All said they would trade Fields and draft Williams. 

7 of 32, that settles it, we have to trade Fields, Im glad we cleared that up. 

Since Mahomes was drafted only 4 QBs would be considered  tier 1 ;him, Jackson, Allen, Burrow.

Tier2 (QBs that may become tier 1) Stroud, Lawrence, Tua, Herbert, Hurts, Purdy, Presscott

Out of 71 QBs drafted only 11 are at or to become elite level in 7 yrs.  Out of that 71 only 2 were drafted #1.

 The moral of the story is , be careful what you wish for.

I think the points they made were all valid though.  I really think if you still have questions about Fields - you really can't take that risk at this point, when you have coming out of college an equally good prospect as Fields was and you are starting the clock over and surrounding said young player with a far better situation.

I'll say the inverse - if Caleb Williams was the current Bears starter and he had produced like he had for the 1st 3 years - with the same questions, and Justin Fields was now the #1 pick in this draft class (or Trevor Lawrence) and the roles were reversed and Bears were sitting there - I would say, go get Fields because we haven't seen enough in 3 years out of Williams.  

Now part of this is circumstance - Bears actually are sitting in a spot where they can get one of these guys without mortgaging ANYTHING and at a time when there own guy has upside, but still a lot of question(s) and you can still trade them (in my mind - I think if Fields finishes solid - you are talking about getting a 2nd this year and I'd love to see like a conditional 2nd the following year).  

Bears than would get back the 2nd round pick they lost - plus have #1 for QB and another top 10 (or close to top 10) pick to add an OT or a Wideout.  

[AZ54]

56 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

I think the points they made were all valid though.  I really think if you still have questions about Fields - you really can't take that risk at this point, when you have coming out of college an equally good prospect as Fields was and you are starting the clock over and surrounding said young player with a far better situation.

I'll say the inverse - if Caleb Williams was the current Bears starter and he had produced like he had for the 1st 3 years - with the same questions, and Justin Fields was now the #1 pick in this draft class (or Trevor Lawrence) and the roles were reversed and Bears were sitting there - I would say, go get Fields because we haven't seen enough in 3 years out of Williams.  

Now part of this is circumstance - Bears actually are sitting in a spot where they can get one of these guys without mortgaging ANYTHING and at a time when there own guy has upside, but still a lot of question(s) and you can still trade them (in my mind - I think if Fields finishes solid - you are talking about getting a 2nd this year and I'd love to see like a conditional 2nd the following year).  

Bears than would get back the 2nd round pick they lost - plus have #1 for QB and another top 10 (or close to top 10) pick to add an OT or a Wideout.  

How many of those GMs need a QB this off-season and won’t have a top 5 pick?   

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

I think the points they made were all valid though.  I really think if you still have questions about Fields - you really can't take that risk at this point, when you have coming out of college an equally good prospect as Fields was and you are starting the clock over and surrounding said young player with a far better situation.

I'll say the inverse - if Caleb Williams was the current Bears starter and he had produced like he had for the 1st 3 years - with the same questions, and Justin Fields was now the #1 pick in this draft class (or Trevor Lawrence) and the roles were reversed and Bears were sitting there - I would say, go get Fields because we haven't seen enough in 3 years out of Williams.  

Now part of this is circumstance - Bears actually are sitting in a spot where they can get one of these guys without mortgaging ANYTHING and at a time when there own guy has upside, but still a lot of question(s) and you can still trade them (in my mind - I think if Fields finishes solid - you are talking about getting a 2nd this year and I'd love to see like a conditional 2nd the following year).  

Bears than would get back the 2nd round pick they lost - plus have #1 for QB and another top 10 (or close to top 10) pick to add an OT or a Wideout.  

yeah, theres some faulty math above, since we all know the best odds of getting a great QB come from early picks.

I also agree with your analysis here DABEARS. Justin isnt currently an elite QB. There is risk down every path here.

But one thing that is certain is that you need to make a decision on JF's 5th year option right after the draft this year. If you do that, you're committed to Fields including $25 Million for year five. You cant move on from him for two years. That isn't the free one year test drive that people think it is, because you have to guarantee his 5th year before training camp starts this year.

We have a lot of young players but if you start looking out to 2025 and 2026, you see that youll be having real cap troubles getting everyone signed if you stay with Fields. And if Fields is Mahomes, then you try to make it work, but you can even see how that's working with the real Mahomes in KC.

But yes if he is Mahomes, then you pay him. But if he isnt, youre buying a long term ticket right back to football purgatory where we have lived for decades.

On the other hand, if you trade Fields, and draft a rookie, then you have plenty of space to roll with this team going forward and keep adding talent around him.

Basically, if you look at the cap going forward, you have to KNOW that Fields is the MAN. If you dont, and I dont think anyone can say they do right now, then the financially smart thing to do is to draft a rookie.

This is why Fields' performance in these last games isnt the biggest issue in determining his future here. The salary cap is.

Sportwriters talk about talent. Fans talk about loyalty and hope. GMs talk about the salary cap, they understand the pressure of it better than anyone. If 100% of the GMs that responded said trade Fields, I'll bet they were thinking of the cap as much or more than JF's abilities when they said that.

And to AZ54's point about QB hungry teams, they might also constitute a market for a Fields trade?

[killakrzydav]

Oregon's Center was the All American over SVP and Frazier. Additionally, he gave up zero pressures all year.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

3 hours ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

I'll say the inverse - if Caleb Williams was the current Bears starter and he had produced like he had for the 1st 3 years - with the same questions, and Justin Fields was now the #1 pick in this draft class (or Trevor Lawrence) and the roles were reversed and Bears were sitting there - I would say, go get Fields because we haven't seen enough in 3 years out of Williams.  

I’d say comparing their collegiate careers would be a huge factor.  Where Williams has a Heisman and three postseason appearances (1-2 in those games and none in 2023) Fields has six playoff and conference championship appearances and a winning record against the SEC.  If the roles were reversed, it would be a whole different discussion.  

[Mongo3451]

2 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

We have a lot of young players but if you start looking out to 2025 and 2026, you see that youll be having real cap troubles getting everyone signed if you stay with Fields. And if Fields is Mahomes, then you try to make it work, but you can even see how that's working with the real Mahomes in KC.

This right here!

Can Fields get us to the playoffs with a superior supporting cast?  Yes he can.  Can he put a team on his back when the cap causes us to lose some premium talent?  I don't think he can.

If you can't throw people open, throw slants or hit tight windows over the middle, your silly not sustainable.

[Stinger226]

3 hours ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

I think the points they made were all valid though.  I really think if you still have questions about Fields - you really can't take that risk at this point, when you have coming out of college an equally good prospect as Fields was and you are starting the clock over and surrounding said young player with a far better situation.

I'll say the inverse - if Caleb Williams was the current Bears starter and he had produced like he had for the 1st 3 years - with the same questions, and Justin Fields was now the #1 pick in this draft class (or Trevor Lawrence) and the roles were reversed and Bears were sitting there - I would say, go get Fields because we haven't seen enough in 3 years out of Williams.  

Now part of this is circumstance - Bears actually are sitting in a spot where they can get one of these guys without mortgaging ANYTHING and at a time when there own guy has upside, but still a lot of question(s) and you can still trade them (in my mind - I think if Fields finishes solid - you are talking about getting a 2nd this year and I'd love to see like a conditional 2nd the following year).  

Bears than would get back the 2nd round pick they lost - plus have #1 for QB and another top 10 (or close to top 10) pick to add an OT or a Wideout.  

Only 2 of those GMs said Fields was worth a 2nd round pick. So are we trading a starting QB that has upside for a 3rd? There was other later picks also mentioned, not just a 3rd.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

23 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

Only 2 of those GMs said Fields was worth a 2nd round pick. So are we trading a starting QB that has upside for a 3rd? There was other later picks also mentioned, not just a 3rd.

I presume those GM's were careful what they said. I also think when you look at past trades, whether the Wentz deal and/or the Sam Darnold deal - you can see teams will ultimately overpay for the QB. Basically put - you just need 1-2 teams to have a view and they ultimately have a need.  Reality is - there are going to be a # of teams who aren't going to be picking early enough who are going to have a need at QB and for them it will be worth taking a chance on Fields.  

Steelers - Falcons - Seahawks (depending on their love of Geno) - Patriots (if they aren't in the top 3) - Raiders. All of those teams are likely not going to be in a spot (without moving up to get a QB). 

[Stinger226]

I think the Seahawks could be landing spot, they seem to be a QB away from being very good. Tomlin would figure out what to do with Justin and Pace is in Atlanta, he drafted him. Any of them would get a steal with a 3rd round pick if the GMs are right.

[killakrzydav]

Geno just had a year better than any Bears qb in history. They're not moving off of him right now. IIRC, he just got a little small salary extension.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

Finally watching the Bears vs Lions game from last Sunday since you don't see everything from the stands.  I am on board to resign RB Foreman.  Go jnto 2024 with Foreman, Johnson and  Herbert again.  Maybe take a late round flyer on a explosive change of pace RB.  Also, Fields had another + in my books.  4 games to go and if they keep playing well and get those W's I think you have to give this group another shot.

[BearFan PHX]

5 minutes ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

Finally watching the Bears vs Lions game from last Sunday since you don't see everything from the stands.  I am on board to resign RB Foreman.  Go jnto 2024 with Foreman, Johnson and  Herbert again.  Maybe take a late round flyer on a explosive change of pace RB.  Also, Fields had another + in my books.  4 games to go and if they keep playing well and get those W's I think you have to give this group another shot.

Agree on Foreman. I thought he would be the starter game 1.

Also, I'm probably the boards' biggest Fields detractor, and I agree he had his best game this past week.

Keeping Fields has more parameters than just how Fields plays though. There are serious salary cap implications that i think will cause us to take a QB int he 1st round and move on from Fields, even as he is playing better.

[Stinger226]

Whoever Poles decides to go with, I trust him to make that decision. I agree money is a part of the recipe  but that wouldnt happen until 2026.  Poles is trying to make a winner and manage the future at the same time. Next year , your best option would be the upside of Fields over any rookie drafted. A rookie brings growing pains. The draftee will have a higher ceiling but not floor in 2024 and maybe 2025. Build the team ,draft a prospect and go start winning.  

KC did that the exact yr they drafted Mahomes, won with Smith and let Mahomes develop. Poles was there that yr and it worked out for KC and the future.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

2 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

Agree on Foreman. I thought he would be the starter game 1.

Also, I'm probably the boards' biggest Fields detractor, and I agree he had his best game this past week.

Keeping Fields has more parameters than just how Fields plays though. There are serious salary cap implications that i think will cause us to take a QB int he 1st round and move on from Fields, even as he is playing better.

We will see, 4 games to go and If they continue playing well I do not see the GM worrying about salary cap implications over the most important position.  They will draft a QB somewhere in this draft so they have insurance.  If Fields craps these last 4, then the I can see your scenario. 

I am good if they move on from Mooney too, they need a legit #2 with some length.  Mooney as the 3 would be fine, but Scott should be ready for a larger role. 

[Stinger226]

You can bring back Mooney for cheap and still add a #2 in the draft. I think we will find out he has been nursing an injury along the way. He is a hard worker, a team guy and with DJ has probably lost some  of his confidence.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

3 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

You can bring back Mooney for cheap and still add a #2 in the draft. I think we will find out he has been nursing an injury along the way. He is a hard worker, a team guy and with DJ has probably lost some confidence.

I he signs a friendly WR3 type deal and the Bears add a decent WR 1 or 2, he should look better.

[BearFan PHX]

2 hours ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

We will see, 4 games to go and If they continue playing well I do not see the GM worrying about salary cap implications over the most important position.

Well I said that if you think Fields is Mahomes, then you pay him. Im not saying you walk away from a Super Bowl winning QB over the cap. Im saying if youre gonna pay a QB and lose all the other players around him that you cant afford, you'd better be sure he is a Super Bowl winning QB.

Im saying that i dont think anyone can say right now, or even at the end of this season that JF is 100% gonna be a Super Bowl winning QB, therefore, you gotta look to replace him, because it's too much of a risk to roll with him if he turns out not to be one?

[Stinger226]

57 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

Well I said that if you think Fields is Mahomes, then you pay him. Im not saying you walk away from a Super Bowl winning QB over the cap. Im saying if youre gonna pay a QB and lose all the other players around him that you cant afford, you'd better be sure he is a Super Bowl winning QB.

Im saying that i dont think anyone can say right now, or even at the end of this season that JF is 100% gonna be a Super Bowl winning QB, therefore, you gotta look to replace him, because it's too much of a risk to roll with him if he turns out not to be one?

Everyone cant always be compared to Mahomes, in that case no one would measure up. You are  right this year doesnt settle anything. Poles will bring in another QB if he thinks he will be better. A rookie QB doesnt compare to Mahomes either, there is no Mahomes in this draft.

[Stinger226]

Seen several clips on X where it shows George Pickens  not even trying to block on plays. One was a goal line play where a half assed block would have gotten Warren into the end zone. Anyone that wanted Pickens may be seeing him on the trade market  this offseason. Now I understand why Poles didnt draft him.

[Mongo3451]

27 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

A rookie QB doesnt compare to Mahomes either, there is no Mahomes in this draft.

You can't know or say that.  If anyone knew Mahomes was that dude, he would have went higher.  Now, there are guys coming out rated higher than Mahomes was.  So, how do we value that?  Everyone says Belichick was a genius for finding Brady.  Really... Wouldn't he run up with the first pick he could?

[Stinger226]

6 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

You can't know or say that.  If anyone knew Mahomes was that dude, he would have went higher.  Now, there are guys coming out rated higher than Mahomes was.  So, how do we value that?  Everyone says Belichick was a genius for finding Brady.  Really... Wouldn't he run up with the first pick he could?

Let me rephrase that IMO. The QB GOD Caleb Williams doesnt look like that to me but with any of 10 draftable QBs , one may emerge. I know Fields is not but which one is the magic carpet ride?

[Mongo3451]

3 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

Let me rephrase that IMO. The QB GOD Caleb Williams doesnt look like that to me but with any of 10 draftable QBs , one may emerge. I know Fields is not but which one is the magic carpet ride?

That's better kid...?

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:

Everyone cant always be compared to Mahomes, in that case no one would measure up. You are  right this year doesnt settle anything. Poles will bring in another QB if he thinks he will be better. A rookie QB doesnt compare to Mahomes either, there is no Mahomes in this draft.

You may be misunderstanding my point.

I'm saying with the market the way it is right now, paying a QB the going rate for a second deal with the same team, i.e. top 10 QB money, automatically puts your team into cap hell. You can have that QB, but you cant afford a full team around him.

Someone could argue that a Pat Mahomes is worth paying that to, because he can take inferior players and make them superstars by being so good, throwing lesser receivers open etc.

Someone else might argue that no QB is worth what that does to your cap, and KC and GB under Rodgers kinda show that to be true. A lot of Mahomes' passes are getting dropped by lesser receivers because they couldnt afford to keep Tyreek Hill.

But either way, whether Mahomes is worth it or not, you cant pay a QB that kind of money if you dont already KNOW they are at that Super Bowl winning level. That's how you end up in cap hell with NO WAY OUT of it for years. Like the Cutler 7 year deal. You think maybe after year 3 or 4, they might have thought "Crap, Jay isnt it" and then they had to roll with him for FOUR MORE YEARS because they had no way out? THis has been our story for decades. Stuck in mediocrity.

Now, if instead you've argued for putting talent around Fields, then that is the other model of cap management. You get a rookie QB on their rookie deal, and you have tons of cap space to add all kinds of talent around them, and try to win a Super Bowl within the first 4 years.

But if you are going into year 4 with a QB on their rookie deal, you have to decide at that point whether you are done with them, or want to roll with them long term. That's when you need to say yes or no to the $25 Mil guaranteed the year after the one coming up now.

Now if you say yes, and then find that he isnt the guy after year 4, then youre STUCK with him for year five because of the option, and then after that you have nothing and youre starting over looking for a QB without a guaranteed high first pick to even get a QB. That's how you end up 7-10 every year with no way out other than mortgaging multiple years drafts to move up for a rookie.

On the other hand, if you dont pick up the option, you know your QB is gone to free agency after that year, and again you have wasted the 4th year for nothing after that. You may think you can sign him then, but then youve missed the $25 Mil option and gone right to $40+ Mil a year early, so even more cap hell! Plus there's no guarantee that player picks your team since you didnt show you believed in them. And to try to franchise tag a QB? THAT is a certain holdout.

On another hand, if you take a rookie and strike out, you probably have a high draft pick again and can take another swing after 2 years, all the while having cap to keep building the roster into a monster.

That's why the 5th year option is there and structured the way it is - so teams will have to sh*t or get off the pot after year 3 with first round QBs. That's why the players union have negotiated it: specifically to force this decision.

Now Poles did a fantastic job of using our #1 pick last year to punt and get us in this position again were we have had this year 3 to evaluate Fields. And here we are at the end of that.

But the question isn't "Did Fields improve? Is he worth riding with one more year to see where he goes?" the question, forced by cap reality is "are you willing to bet your entire cap future right now that Fields is going to be Mahomes level" and another question is "is ANY QB worth that much?"

Now of course lesser QBs sign for lesser deals, but no one is building a plan based on paying inferior QBs $20 Mil a year and having them be franchise QBs for the long haul.

Like it or not, the decision time is May. And I dont see how anyone can say JF is 100% worth mortgaging our entire future for at this point.

Will a rookie be as good as Fields has been? Who knows? But you arent betting the farm on them - THATs the difference.

Also, as a PS, Brady always took $10 Mil less than his value so he could have a team around him.

[BearFan PHX]

46 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

You can't know or say that.  If anyone knew Mahomes was that dude, he would have went higher.  Now, there are guys coming out rated higher than Mahomes was.  So, how do we value that?  Everyone says Belichick was a genius for finding Brady.  Really... Wouldn't he run up with the first pick he could?

amen.