Anything comments

[BearFan PHX]

5 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

Of course.   Feeney showed why he was an easy trade midseason.   Even without that on individual blocks guys were just getting beat.  Nobody looked like they came to play.  Saw a lot of that on D too.   

Yeah there were individuals who played hard and well, but it was hardly the HITS philosophy in action. I liked Wright's season for sure, and Jenkins is a beast. But yeah, we need better.

I know I still think Fields had his issues, regardless of the line, but we agree the line needs more.

[AZ54]

8 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

I stopped watching that idiot when he gave Wright praise for performing a great reach block, when the DT obviously bit on a read option fake.  That being said, Wright is gonna be that dude.  The blogger is just trying to make his nut, getting follows by parroting sentiment from guys like Baldy.

I know there is more to it than he goes over but the trend for Wright across the season was upward.  It was really obvious, at least to me, in the repeat games (Detroit, GB, Minn) that he had a much better handle on the players across from him.  Now he carries those lessons into a full offseason. 

OTOH I saw somebody with their 2023 draft grades give him a C because he gave up 7 sacks on the year.  A lot of people isolate stats simplistically and that doesn't tell the story across a 17 game season.    Nobody puts together a time trend for example, box plots, opponent level of play, supporting talent around them, did they account for the games he played injured and could only block with one arm, etc.  You just get assigned a number, or a grade.  It's interesting to watch.    

[BearFan PHX]

15 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

I know there is more to it than he goes over but the trend for Wright across the season was upward.  It was really obvious, at least to me, in the repeat games (Detroit, GB, Minn) that he had a much better handle on the players across from him.  Now he carries those lessons into a full offseason. 

OTOH I saw somebody with their 2023 draft grades give him a C because he gave up 7 sacks on the year.  A lot of people isolate stats simplistically and that doesn't tell the story across a 17 game season.    Nobody puts together a time trend for example, box plots, opponent level of play, supporting talent around them, did they account for the games he played injured and could only block with one arm, etc.  You just get assigned a number, or a grade.  It's interesting to watch.    

I totally agree. I think Wright is going to be a Hall Of Famer before it's all over, and i said so before his first snap. 25 years from now I'll remind you all again LOL

Stats are funny, with some players they tell a story, with others they actually hide the story. And if it's PFF doing the stats, then all bets are off!

You gotta watch the all 22 and/or the behind the QB tape, and you gotta watch the player you're judging. And you need to have some decent guess at what they were supposed to do on that play too.

But yeah, Wright is a beast you can build around for a decade or more. I was very pleased with all of our rookies really. Scott needs to get more dialed in, but who knows really, the whole passing game was screwed. Whatever the reason. But Scott aside, the rookies all got significantly better across the season.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

17 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

Here's a good one. Think Mahomes wouldnt have made this play? Justin just didnt pull the trigger on Moore. Or the other open WR either. Instead he ran to the left out of the pocket. Why?

Good question. Found the below link from guy who does random QB video analysis.  The video was posted about a month ago when KC (and Mahomes) was in a slump where they went about 2-3 games without Mahomes being able to connect with his receivers.  Either because he's missing the read or the recievers were dropping passes.  The short of this video is about how Mahomes missed his primary read (Kelce) and ended up scrambling because as the commenter stated "he had a clean pocket and ran for no reason".  

At any rate, I'm curious to see once you get around to 'analyzing the upcoming QB draftees' you convince me how any of them are going to be better than Fields.  And if they aren't this year, how long do we wait until they are?  

 

[BearFan PHX]

So youre saying that because a good QB has bad games, that means that a QB who has only ever had one game over 300 yards is as good as Mahomes because Mahomes is bad like Fields sometimes?

I just dont get it. Weve seen 3 years of Fields, and Im not judging him on stats, I know the context he was in - I just watch the film and see that Fields doesnt show he has it to play QB within a system. And Its not me saying it, all kinds of pundits, those who like Fields too, know that this is his problem.

Why do you want to hitch the Bears future to a QB who hasnt shown he can play the position?

[Alaskan Grizzly]

2 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

So youre saying that because a good QB has bad games, that means that a QB who has only ever had one game over 300 yards is as good as Mahomes because Mahomes is bad like Fields sometimes?

I just dont get it. Weve seen 3 years of Fields, and Im not judging him on stats, I know the context he was in - I just watch the film and see that Fields doesnt show he has it to play QB within a system. And Its not me saying it, all kinds of pundits, those who like Fields too, know that this is his problem.

Why do you want to hitch the Bears future to a QB who hasnt shown he can play the position?

The first point was to show you that 'yes' QBs occasionally have bad games. And more specifically you asked what I thought Mahomes would do in that same situation.  The video clip I shared was nearly identical, and what's more was from this year's version of Patrick, not the one from 3-4 years ago.  The illustration you shared about Justin was from earlier this season.  You yourself said he 'improved' in that Atlanta game, which was the second to last of the season.  I suppose the loss the GB the following week was all because Justin can't play the position or???

For all the "pundits" you say who he can't play the position, I can show just as many say he can and the team should build around him.  Former players who have played the position and in Chicago to boot, Jay Cutler and Chase Daniel among them.  

I'm more inclined to stick with Fields because it's the 'bird in the hand' philosophy.  I know what Justin can do for us and despite your insistence otherwise, I'm sure he can do more for us.  I'm not convinced that Williams, Maye or any of the upcoming "generational" QBs coming out for the draft can.  And if they do decide to draft a "can't miss" in one of those guys (presumably in the #1 position) how long do they have to prove they are 'it'?  In my mind they'd have to literally be able to plug in play by next season to continue the upward growth of the team overall.  

You've said this before, as have many others, but ultimately this discussion we're having now won't matter at the end of the day. When April 25th is in the books, we'll have a better idea who our QB will be for next year.  And I'm sure Poles won't be asking either of us our opinion to make that decision.

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

You yourself said he 'improved' in that Atlanta game

You've said this before, as have many others, but ultimately this discussion we're having now won't matter at the end of the day. When April 25th is in the books, we'll have a better idea who our QB will be for next year.  And I'm sure Poles won't be asking either of us our opinion to make that decision.

Youre right on both accounts. Fields showed some things I hadnt seen from him before against Atlanta, and if Fields is our QB next year, Im gonna root for him, until (if) he starts paying poorly at least.

I just havent really seen enough evidence to think that Fields is a good bet, and if they keep him and Eberflus, and they dont come out of the gate humming, I'll start thinking we really messed up pretty quick. And also, I need to see us beat GOOD teams.

And of course with Mahomes, the reason we talk about him is because of all the good games he's had, and Justin just doesnt have them on tape.

We won half of the games that Bagent started. Im not suggesting that Bagent should be our presumptive starter, but that the team CAN win without Justin. For all his flashy plays, Im not sure he increases our ability to win games more than any of the rookies would.

And thats kind of my main point - a new QB doesnt put you back to 0 wins. Justin isnt that far over baseline. Play to play he is - he makes amazing escapes. But at the end of the day, on the scoreboard, I dont think Justin's added value over the median QB is much at all. But more to the point - the rookie will get better, whereas I dont think Justin is ever gonna be that guy to play in structure.

If we have a rookie QB next year, it shouldnt be awful. If the OC is good, we should be able to win as many games as we won this year.

QB aside, I think the schedule we would like to be on is playoffs this year, NFC Championship game in 2025 and Superbowl contender 2026 and 2027. You have to grow into that. If you have a rookie, that probably pushes that back a year - but its one that can be made up in 2025 if the team is clicking.

I think it's a mistake to take a trend line and predict the future from that. Its not a line, its a curve as diminished returns kick in when youre looking to unseat the good teams. I dont think you can look at Fields' growth curve and expect a Superbowl at the end of it. You cant say "we went from 3 wins to 7 wins so I expect 10 wins next year" Going from awful to mediocre is growth but it doesnt imply better than average is next. If you plug holes you get to mediocre, that doesnt imply that greatness is next.

I dont know if any of the rookie QBs will be good. I expect at least 1 will be great. i dont know which one though. Poles gets to stake his reputation on that, or on keeping Justin. But if you dont try, youll never get a great one, and I dont think Justin will ever be great on the scoreboard.

I think that the floor for rookie QBs isnt as low as you think either. If you pick the wrong one, I doubt they will be unserviceable. I doubt that if they dont hit that they will be functionally that much worse than Fields has been if at all. You wont get the highlight plays, but youll get an offense that is recognizable as football.

So I dont see a lot of upside to Fields, and I dont see as much downside to a rookie.

The biggest selling point for keeping Fields is the haul you get with that #1 pick. But a franchise QB is worth even more, if you can get it right.

[Mongo3451]

At some point, we have to really look at the fact, Justin is going to want to get paid.  Danny Dimes got 40 a year.  Is Justin worth the 50, he's going to expect?  Can our team survive it?

[BearFan PHX]

But said more simply: what is it about Justin's play so far that makes you think he would be a better overall QB, from the point of view of points on the board and wins, than a rookie QB in their rookie season?

I dont even think there would be regression at all. I dont think Fields has done anything consistent that moves the needle on points and wins.

[BearFan PHX]

1 minute ago, Mongo3451 said:

At some point, we have to really look at the fact, Justin is going to want to get paid.  Danny Dimes got 40 a year.  Is Justin worth the 50, he's going to expect?  Can our team survive it?

all true, but secondary to the fact that Justin just isnt a very good QB.

[ChileBear]

12 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

all true, but secondary to the fact that Justin just isnt a very good QB.

Rookie QB with a rookie deal for four years? That's certainly good for other positions on the team. The upcoming season is Fields last before we need to give him and extension, right? Interesting issues for Poles, and I agree that paying Fields big money doesn't fit with his production.

[BearFan PHX]

8 minutes ago, ChileBear said:

Rookie QB with a rookie deal for four years? That's certainly good for other positions on the team. The upcoming season is Fields last before we need to give him and extension, right? Interesting issues for Poles, and I agree that paying Fields big money doesn't fit with his production.

well you know I agree with everything you said, Im just saying if you have a GREAT QB they are worth the money. I dont think Justin is better than a rookie. And he wont be better than them in 2025 for sure.

[ChileBear]

1 hour ago, BearFan PHX said:

well you know I agree with everything you said, Im just saying if you have a GREAT QB they are worth the money. I dont think Justin is better than a rookie. And he wont be better than them in 2025 for sure.

And I agree with you that a rookie will serve just as well as what we've got with Fields.

[Stinger226]

1 hour ago, ChileBear said:

Rookie QB with a rookie deal for four years? That's certainly good for other positions on the team. The upcoming season is Fields last before we need to give him and extension, right? Interesting issues for Poles, and I agree that paying Fields big money doesn't fit with his production.

The first pick in the draft will make more than Justin does this year. In 2025 his fifth year option costs 22 to 25 mil, I've seen two different numbers, so not sure which one is right. Those are two years of doable money if they keep him for that time. I still  think the option is on the table of keeping Fields and drafting a QB not with the first pick.  

[Alaskan Grizzly]

3 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

I dont think Justin is better than a rookie. And he wont be better than them in 2025 for sure.

Interesting.  

Is the CJ Stroud effect an anomaly or the new norm?  

[BearFan PHX]

13 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Interesting.  

Is the CJ Stroud effect an anomaly or the new norm?  

hes still an anomaly. but I dont think Justin Fields is that high of a threshold, thats probably the difference in our opinions?

And hes an anomaly in that hes doing it year one. But could I see Williams do the same next year with the Bears team? For sure. Am I confident he WILL be that guy? Not right now, but maybe after i watch more film.

But I am confident Williams will be at least as good as Fields is now, right out of the gate.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

All this talk about drafting a QB is bogus until you get the right playcallers.  Everyone was high on Hurts, now he looks bad and they are blaming his coaches.  What about Herbert? There is no QB that makes it without a genius behind him. Stroud? Wait until his play caller becomes a HC elsewhere.  I don't care what Poles does but who is going to have the team ready to beat NFL defenses for years? 

[DABEARSDABOMB]

46 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

hes still an anomaly. but I dont think Justin Fields is that high of a threshold, thats probably the difference in our opinions?

And hes an anomaly in that hes doing it year one. But could I see Williams do the same next year with the Bears team? For sure. Am I confident he WILL be that guy? Not right now, but maybe after i watch more film.

But I am confident Williams will be at least as good as Fields is now, right out of the gate.

We are in same boat. Fields is just a guy. So my worry is they waste two more years, make a wild card or two and than are at a cross roads / pay Justin 40M plus per year or find a new qb at that point but when you are now looking you have a wild card pick and basically no way to go get a real upgrade without mortgaging the future and setting franchise back (or you pay Fields and a mediocre qb at 40M…well look no further than the NY football Giants). 

[DABEARSDABOMB]

39 minutes ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

All this talk about drafting a QB is bogus until you get the right playcallers.  Everyone was high on Hurts, now he looks bad and they are blaming his coaches.  What about Herbert? There is no QB that makes it without a genius behind him. Stroud? Wait until his play caller becomes a HC elsewhere.  I don't care what Poles does but who is going to have the team ready to beat NFL defenses for years? 

You know what - if Justin fields had a year where he did what Stroud, Herbert or Hurts did at their peak and than they looked like Fields, maybe I would have a different take, but all of them are light years better than Justin in real on field production. 
 

Justin wins or ties Herbert if it came to pure physical tools - but on field no comparison between Fields and everyone else you list. 

[DABEARSDABOMB]

1 hour ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Interesting.  

Is the CJ Stroud effect an anomaly or the new norm?  

I don’t think a rookie will be better than Fields, but I think by year two they will be better than what Justin has produced the last 3 years (at least if they are solid - no guarantee but Fields is mediocre, I’m not sticking with mediocre at this position). 

[Stinger226]

41 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

I don’t think a rookie will be better than Fields, but I think by year two they will be better than what Justin has produced the last 3 years (at least if they are solid - no guarantee but Fields is mediocre, I’m not sticking with mediocre at this position). 

Under a better play caller with more weapons, Fields will have a good year. Chances of a rookie having a Stroud year is not likely. Poles needs to win next year, it's less risky with Justin. Williams ceiling is higher than Fields but that will take a few years.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

2 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

But I am confident Williams will be at least as good as Fields is now, right out of the gate

I’m genuinely curious how you can say that?  What makes you sure that his skills will transfer better to the NFL than Justin’s have?  Is it winning the Heisman?  Is it how he performed against PAC12 competition vs top-25 competition?   And lastly, is it possible he’s a result of a well designed system?  The same one that yielded his backup 6 TDs in the bowl game a few weeks ago.   

[BearFan PHX]

1 minute ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

I’m genuinely curious how you can say that?  What makes you sure that his skills will transfer better to the NFL than Justin’s have?  Is it winning the Heisman?  Is it how he performed against PAC12 competition vs top-25 competition?   And lastly, is it possible he’s a result of a well designed system?  The same one that yielded his backup 6 TDs in the bowl game a few weeks ago.   

hes athletic and functional. Im not saying Williams will be great - it has more to do with how I rate Fields right now.

But if Williams struggles, but is athletic, he will be the same as Fields?

[BearFan PHX]

2 hours ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

All this talk about drafting a QB is bogus until you get the right playcallers.  Everyone was high on Hurts, now he looks bad and they are blaming his coaches.  What about Herbert? There is no QB that makes it without a genius behind him. Stroud? Wait until his play caller becomes a HC elsewhere.  I don't care what Poles does but who is going to have the team ready to beat NFL defenses for years? 

for sure. the great thing about football is everything is a multiplier, and if one part of the chain is a zero, the product is a zero.

To your point about losing successful coordinators - this is why I prefer to have an offensive minded head coach.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

1 hour ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

I don’t think a rookie will be better than Fields, but I think by year two they will be better than what Justin has produced the last 3 years (at least if they are solid - no guarantee but Fields is mediocre, I’m not sticking with mediocre at this position). 

Would you agree that it’s possible Justin could improve if he had a better OC that caters more to his skill set?  Theres no doubt Getsy could not and Flus will not.  Many here have said they think he’d do better on a different team.  Why would that be?