Anything comments

[Stinger226]

4 minutes ago, adam said:

If you are Poles, don't you take in all the information? 

Fields gets compared to Lamar more than any other QB, and rightfully so. The issue I see is like in hockey, and probably most pro sports, the playoffs are at an entirely different game than the regular season. Ask Dan Campbell, you can't just blindly go for every 4th down because you trust your guys. 

Lamar was supposed to be the MVP. He was shutdown for basically 58 minutes, then got 100+ garbage time yards that didn't even matter, but they look good on his stat sheet. He is primarily a running QB, while Mahomes is mobile and can run if needed, but that is normally his last option. 

My concern with Williams is, did he do enough in the system? He did a ton of hero ball, and in some cases, too much. 

I am thinking this may bring Maye back into the discussion. He plays within the system, has explosive plays, can play offscript, and runs when he needs to. Plus he is bigger, and is not going to get crushed every time he is hit.

I honestly think there is a 3-headed die. One is Fields, Lamar clone without the 4th quarter prowess, two is Williams who could be a Mahomes clone or taller Kyler Murray, or three is Maye, who could end up between a Josh Allen and Justin Herbert. 

As we keep mentioning Williams as the generational QB, Maye may be the better QB in this draft after the dust settles. If comparing Williams , he is closer to Murray , than Mahomes. With all that is stated Williams is small for the position.

[adam]

The Detroit loss shows coaching matters. SF scored 27 unanswered pts in the 2nd half. You want to talk about epic collapses, that one was one for the ages. Both sides of the ball turtled. 

Why are they throwing the ball to Reynolds in key situations when you have LaPorta, St. Brown, and Gibbs? 

Why is Vildor asked to cover Aiyuk that deep without a Safety over the top?

Why did Campbell go for it on 4th and 3 down only 3 pts when a FG ties the game? I didn't mind the earlier one as you had a lead, but when you are trailing by 3 or less, you kick the FG. Especially with the time left on the clock. 

If you look at that roster, Holmes did a great job, how hard is it to have a winning record with that squad? I really feel like Campbell is a little overrated, and everyone likes him because he is like that old school high school football coach that is always hooting and hollering. 

[adam]

2 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

As we keep mentioning Williams as the generational QB, Maye may be the better QB in this draft after the dust settles. If comparing Williams , he is closer to Murray , than Mahomes. With all that is stated Williams is small for the position.

The combine is going to be critical, with the 1v1 interviews and the measurables. If he comes in under 6'1", that is going to be a huge red flag. If I am him, I am getting botox injections on the top of my head a few days prior.

[Lucky Luciano]

30 minutes ago, adam said:

Monty's 2-yard loss run under a minute basically sealed the loss. Terrible call and run lol.

WTF kind of call is that? you have 3 timeouts left, need TWO scores and around a minute to go and you try running it in from the 3 on third down and burn up a timeout if he doesn't get in? that FORCES you to recover an onside kick.

even with that said, the game was LOST when they decided to go for it on 4th (and how many yards) at the 30 yard line instead of tying up the game with a field goal?

riddle me this batman....

what the hell is going on with the coaching in the NFL? i really don't understand it anymore. in my book you ALWAYS take the points. you don't get cute and go for on 4th down unless you are MORE than 10 points down in the last 5 min of a game.

for some reason has the league made field goal points count less than TD points? is there some magical points scored if you go for it on 4th down in your OWN territory in the first 3 quarters? has overtime penalized the winning team?

i see it time and time again. this is pop warner stuff that you see coaches doing nearly every game. it's so stupid i almost have to wonder if shaving points or predetermined wins and losses are involved in this. i have seen so many games determined by not going for that field goal during the game that it's mind boggling.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

2 hours ago, adam said:

I really feel like Campbell is a little overrated,

A coach who led his team to the playoffs for the first time in 50 years and one game from the Super Bowl “overrated”?  If only we had that sorta luck.  ??   Yeah he screwed the pooch in not going for three when he should have but he’s been lauded plenty of times for being aggressive when others play more traditional. 
 

That was inexperience more than anything. Saw a graphic during the game that showed the Lions having players with 7 total playoff games amongst them versus like 70-80 for the 9’ers.  
 

 

[Stinger226]

1 hour ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

A coach who led his team to the playoffs for the first time in 50 years and one game from the Super Bowl “overrated”?  If only we had that sorta luck.  ??   Yeah he screwed the pooch in not going for there when he should have but he’s been lauded plenty of times for being aggressive when others play more traditional. 
 

That was inexperience more than anything. Saw a graphic during the game that showed the Lions having players with 7 total playoff games amongst them versus like 70-80 for the 9’ers.  
 

 

Campbell has a losing year, his first year, then went 1-7 and fans were hammering him the same way Flus got hammered this year. They finished 9-8_ where Flus was 7-10 of which should have been 10-7. Now Campbell should be coach of the year. This will be the year Flus needs to show he's a good coach. We will see how it plays out. I expect us to have a winning season.

[adam]

3 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

A coach who led his team to the playoffs for the first time in 50 years and one game from the Super Bowl “overrated”?  If only we had that sorta luck.  ??   Yeah he screwed the pooch in not going for three when he should have but he’s been lauded plenty of times for being aggressive when others play more traditional. 
 

That was inexperience more than anything. Saw a graphic during the game that showed the Lions having players with 7 total playoff games amongst them versus like 70-80 for the 9’ers.  
 

He is everywhere right now. NFL Network, ESPN, Fox, etc. They have made Campbell out to be the second coming. I am just saying he is getting a lot of praise for taking a very good roster to the NFCC. A lot of coaches would be able to have similar results with that roster and Ben Johnson at OC. The history of a team beyond 5 years is irrelevant to the current team's performance. I always find that funny when they say a team has gone XX long either doing something or not doing something. Who cares?

Honestly, what does the 1978 Lions have to do with the 2023 Lions? Do any of those previous teams impact the outcome of any play or game in the 2023 season?

The experience is definitely important, but that was on the coaches. If it was a low scoring game, or if there was more time left, sure go for it, but not down 3 with 4 minutes left in a high scoring game.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

1 hour ago, adam said:

He is everywhere right now. NFL Network, ESPN, Fox, etc. They have made Campbell out to be the second coming. I am just saying he is getting a lot of praise for taking a very good roster to the NFCC. A lot of coaches would be able to have similar results with that roster and Ben Johnson at OC.

In no way would I endorse Campbell as the "second coming" but I could say the Lions have had decent players over the years and not go as far they did this year. Look at when Stafford was playing and had Megatron to throw to.  In that time Jim Caldwell was their HC where he compiled a record of 36-28 and all they managed to do was lose twice in the WC round.  Stafford threw for at least 4,000 yards each of the years Caldwell was HC by the by.  Goff has only had four 4,000 yard seasons - and two of those were his last two in Detroit.  Remember Jim Bob Cooter?  He was the OC for Detroit  halfway through the season in Caldwell's second season there.  JBC reminded me a lot of Johnson with the hype surrounding him at the time.  

So maybe its the players?  Stafford goes to LA and the first year with them wins the Super Bowl.  Only three years before that the Rams made it to the SB and lost while Goff was their QB. Point here is that McVay is probably a better overall HC than Campbell but couldn't get it done with Goff...

[BearFan PHX]

3 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

In no way would I endorse Campbell as the "second coming" but I could say the Lions have had decent players over the years and not go as far they did this year. Look at when Stafford was playing and had Megatron to throw to.  In that time Jim Caldwell was their HC where he compiled a record of 36-28 and all they managed to do was lose twice in the WC round.  Stafford threw for at least 4,000 yards each of the years Caldwell was HC by the by.  Goff has only had four 4,000 yard seasons - and two of those were his last two in Detroit.  Remember Jim Bob Cooter?  He was the OC for Detroit  halfway through the season in Caldwell's second season there.  JBC reminded me a lot of Johnson with the hype surrounding him at the time.  

So maybe its the players?  Stafford goes to LA and the first year with them wins the Super Bowl.  Only three years before that the Rams made it to the SB and lost while Goff was their QB. Point here is that McVay is probably a better overall HC than Campbell but couldn't get it done with Goff...

It's an interesting problem, and in some ways it's THE interesting problem.

I think there is enough chaos in the way it's all set up that while the very best teams rise, and the worst teams fall, there's a whole middle area that churns in the noise of "any given sunday"

So a 3-14 team isn't gonna go far into the playoffs, and the Chiefs are always gonna be there in the playoffs, and usually in the Championship game that there is enough chaos in the whole system that a team like ours could be 6-11 or 11-6 even if we are at the same skill level.

The Lovie team that went to the Superbowl was like that. They weren't a Superbowl caliber team per se, but the defense was good enough and a couple things went our way and boom there we were. No way we were beating the Colts though, even with Hester spotting a 7 point handicap by returning the opening kickoff.

But there are a couple of teams every year that are GOOD. They are gonna bully their way into the playoffs and win. Chaos happens, and they might not make the Super Bowl every year, but they are gonna be in it at the end.

Brady took the Pats to 9 superbowls, but he also took them to 13 AFC championship games, including EVERY single one between 2012 and 2019. So cream rises, but there is enough noise that the best team sometimes loses in the Championship game. And somehow the Bears get there only to lose to an actual dominant team.

So that's what I'm thinking about the Lions. They were good, and Goff is a pretty good QB. They had a pass rush, and the ball bounced their way a few times. They were like Lovie's Bears. Good, but no ones SB favorite.

So if they win at least 11 games next year, I'll say that Campbell is a good coach. But if they go 9-7 or worse, I'll think it was the roster and some luck.

So I guess you need that top 5 QB, a surrounding roster to at least some degree, and a coach to pull some magic tricks to give you an edge from being one of the top 4 to being the one holding the trophy at the end. It's chaotic, so some years youll miss out, but if you dont have those three things, then really youre not in the actual game at all.

And I suppose this philosophy is what drives me to want to move on from middle or decent coaches and QBs. i feel like until you have exceptional people at those two positions, youre just in the race, but not in the actual hunt to win it?

I mean, we beat the Lions. So what does that mean? That the Lions really are a Superbowl team and so are we? Or that the Bears are somewhere in the top teams between 12th to 16th best, and hoping for a breeze of luck to get us to the divisional round?

This is why incremental progress isnt actually a sign of becoming dominant. Once you get past the average, youre at the mercy of the winds of luck, and when you get a 10 win season you think youre on the way, and when you win 6 you fire the guy, but neither understands the deeper path to being truly dominant?

[Alaskan Grizzly]

2 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

So that's what I'm thinking about the Lions. They were good, and Goff is a pretty good QB. They had a pass rush, and the ball bounced their way a few times. They were like Lovie's Bears. Good, but no ones SB favorite.

So if they win at least 11 games next year, I'll say that Campbell is a good coach. But if they go 9-7 or worse, I'll think it was the roster and some luck.

In three years Campbell and the Lions progressively got better. There is 'enough tape' on them that after year two other teams could've/should've figured out how to beat them. They didn't (at least not 12 times). Now if Johnson leaves and the team dips to 'only' 9 wins we'll have to see what played into the 'downfall' (injuries etc) but i suspect Campbell will be around for awhile.  He's the "best" they've had in awhile.

I was replaying the game yesterday in my head and it seemed SF made some adjustments after halftime to overcome their 17 point deficit.  That and they got awful lucky with some penalties (against the Lions) and that one pass that Aiyuk caught late in the game was pure luck.  Had Vildor not been there and kept the ball alive with his facemask, Aiyuk would've never caught it.    

 

[BearFan PHX]

5 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

In three years Campbell and the Lions progressively got better. There is 'enough tape' on them that after year two other teams could've/should've figured out how to beat them. They didn't (at least not 12 times). Now if Johnson leaves and the team dips to 'only' 9 wins we'll have to see what played into the 'downfall' (injuries etc) but i suspect Campbell will be around for awhile.  He's the "best" they've had in awhile.

I was replaying the game yesterday in my head and it seemed SF made some adjustments after halftime to overcome their 17 point deficit.  That and they got awful lucky with some penalties (against the Lions) and that one pass that Aiyuk caught late in the game was pure luck.  Had Vildor not been there and kept the ball alive with his facemask, Aiyuk would've never caught it.    

 

I totally agree. I think the Lions OC is fantastic. The opening drive was like a magic show and the 49ers were always looking the wrong way.

But similarly, the 49ers made amazing halftime adjustments, and ended up outcoaching the Lions. After halftime the Niners defense seemed to have Goffs number and they clamped down on the run game.

So similar to how we have an opening script for Justin that looks better than the rest of the game, the Lions had a plan that got them a 24-7 halftime lead. But then it wasnt the week leading up planning but in game adjustments where the Niners coaching staff took control.

Im not saying Campbell is nothing, he's a very dynamic guy who amps up the players for sure. But he made some situational football mistakes that may have been the difference in the game, like going for it on 4th down instead of taking the FG.

But i give more coaching credit to the Lions OC, and Goff.

And for people making parallels to Campbell with Eberflus, it's all the same mistakes but without the huge magnetic personality Campbell has.

You're also right about the role luck played. It is always is a factor, but hopefully you have coaches that can create some tricky stuff to balance that out too?

[adam]

2 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

It's an interesting problem, and in some ways it's THE interesting problem.

I think there is enough chaos in the way it's all set up that while the very best teams rise, and the worst teams fall, there's a whole middle area that churns in the noise of "any given sunday"

So a 3-14 team isn't gonna go far into the playoffs, and the Chiefs are always gonna be there in the playoffs, and usually in the Championship game that there is enough chaos in the whole system that a team like ours could be 6-11 or 11-6 even if we are at the same skill level.

The Lovie team that went to the Superbowl was like that. They weren't a Superbowl caliber team per se, but the defense was good enough and a couple things went our way and boom there we were. No way we were beating the Colts though, even with Hester spotting a 7 point handicap by returning the opening kickoff.

But there are a couple of teams every year that are GOOD. They are gonna bully their way into the playoffs and win. Chaos happens, and they might not make the Super Bowl every year, but they are gonna be in it at the end.

Brady took the Pats to 9 superbowls, but he also took them to 13 AFC championship games, including EVERY single one between 2012 and 2019. So cream rises, but there is enough noise that the best team sometimes loses in the Championship game. And somehow the Bears get there only to lose to an actual dominant team.

So that's what I'm thinking about the Lions. They were good, and Goff is a pretty good QB. They had a pass rush, and the ball bounced their way a few times. They were like Lovie's Bears. Good, but no ones SB favorite.

So if they win at least 11 games next year, I'll say that Campbell is a good coach. But if they go 9-7 or worse, I'll think it was the roster and some luck.

So I guess you need that top 5 QB, a surrounding roster to at least some degree, and a coach to pull some magic tricks to give you an edge from being one of the top 4 to being the one holding the trophy at the end. It's chaotic, so some years youll miss out, but if you dont have those three things, then really youre not in the actual game at all.

And I suppose this philosophy is what drives me to want to move on from middle or decent coaches and QBs. i feel like until you have exceptional people at those two positions, youre just in the race, but not in the actual hunt to win it?

I mean, we beat the Lions. So what does that mean? That the Lions really are a Superbowl team and so are we? Or that the Bears are somewhere in the top teams between 12th to 16th best, and hoping for a breeze of luck to get us to the divisional round?

This is why incremental progress isnt actually a sign of becoming dominant. Once you get past the average, youre at the mercy of the winds of luck, and when you get a 10 win season you think youre on the way, and when you win 6 you fire the guy, but neither understands the deeper path to being truly dominant?

They also played a 4th place schedule last year, a 2nd place schedule this year, and now get a 1st place schedule next year. To me, it's like 3 tiers of schedules: 1st place, 2nd/3rd place, and 4th place. This same Detroit team is going to lose at least 2 more next year just by the schedule difficulty alone. Now if the OC was that big of a bump for their offense, then they may lose 3-4 more than they did this year. So from 12-5 to as low as 9-8 or 8-9. 

 

[BearFan PHX]

4 minutes ago, adam said:

They also played a 4th place schedule last year, a 2nd place schedule this year, and now get a 1st place schedule next year. To me, it's like 3 tiers of schedules: 1st place, 2nd/3rd place, and 4th place. This same Detroit team is going to lose at least 2 more next year just by the schedule difficulty alone. Now if the OC was that big of a bump for their offense, then they may lose 3-4 more than they did this year. So from 12-5 to as low as 9-8 or 8-9. 

 

good point, theres also that mid tier oscillation of strength of schedule, youre 6-11, so you get an easy schedule, you go 11-6 and then get a tough schedule, and then regress to 6 wins again - BOY have the Bears been on THAT cycle.

That the Lions progress as the schedule gets tougher does definitely show they are rising. Im not convinced they are really in the top 4 teams in the league, but they are surely in the top 8, maybe even 5 or 6.

If they keep moving forward next year, then Campbell is a good coach for sure.

But right now, I see Goff, the OC and Hutchinson as the primary reasons. I do think Campbell is probably a great motivator - I love his fiery attitude. But I dunno if he is a master strategy guy or not?  They seriously might be in the superbowl this year if they had bought into taking FGs on 4th down instead of going for it.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

59 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

But I dunno if he is a master strategy guy or not?  They seriously might be in the superbowl this year if they had bought into taking FGs on 4th down instead of going for it

I think he’s more Madden like in that he’s not so much the strategist than he is the old school smash mouth style of football guy (which I’m a huge fan of). How many times did we hear Greg Olsen comment on how it was assumed that every time the Lions were short and 4th down Campbell was the guy that would go for it?  He’s been doing that for how long?  And because he stuck to that “script” and believed he could do it again, he’s now all of sudden being questioned for it.  It’s a live by the sword die by it mentality.  If he’d been successful and ended up eventually winning, we’d be having a different conversation. 
 

Going back to the exchange I had with Adam about levels of experience. When you have a handful of guys who have 7 playoff games among them versus another handful of guys that have 10 times as many, experience will mostly win in those situations.  I’d be surprised if Campbell continues making those calls as predictable going forward. 

[BearFan PHX]

19 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

I think he’s more Madden like in that he’s not so much the strategist than he is the old school smash mouth style of football guy (which I’m a huge fan of). How many times did we hear Greg Olsen comment on how it was assumed that every time the Lions were short and 4th down Campbell was the guy that would go for it?  He’s been doing that for how long?  And because he stuck to that “script” and believed he could do it again, he’s now all of sudden being questioned for it.  It’s a live by the sword die by it mentality.  If he’d been successful and ended up eventually winning, we’d be having a different conversation. 
 

Going back to the exchange I had with Adam about levels of experience. When you have a handful of guys who have 7 playoff games among them versus another handful of guys that have 10 times as many, experience will mostly win in those situations.  I’d be surprised if Campbell continues making those calls as predictable going forward. 

I hear ya. And i am also a huge fan of the big alpha dog who demands excellence. I think that's Campbells strength. But i think he makes, or to your point, has made, some losing decisions as a strategist.

The headline at the Rich Eisen show today is "Take the points!" and the Pat McAfee show is "Should Dan Campbell be blamed for losing to the 49ers after leading 24-7 at half?"

Im not saying thats correct, there are obviously counter arguments too - but the question is being widely asked today, so it's hard to say Campbell is a top 5 coach, even as his team finished 3rd or 4th this year.

Im not here to crap on Dan Campbell at all, I like his personality a lot, and what the Lions did this year was great. But we beat them, and if Campbell was Andy Reid, we wouldnt have?

The OC for the Lions is really good too, so a lot of credit goes to him too.

I want to find a head coach who has that tough ass attitude. I want a strategist too, and someone with a pedigree of winning in college or the pros. All three. Maybe someone who just came off winning a national championship or something, but those guys are never available (cough)

[BearFan PHX]

I guess my point from several posts back was about the difference between actually dominant teams that are deep in the playoffs every year, and the kind of team that gets a little lucky and gets to the championship game or the super bowl, but isnt seen from again.

For example, our 2006 Bears went to the Superbowl, and the 2007 Bears were 7-9.

So were the 2006 Bears really evidence that we were a really good team?

When we got double doinked out of going deeper in the playoffs with Nagy and Trubisky, was that really evidence that we had arrived? That those guys would be a positive force for winning games in the future?

I dont want to be one of those teams that squeaks into the playoffs and we hope "if we get a fumble you never know! we could run the table if the ball bounces our way a few times" - I want that 1985 feeling - we are the baddest motherf*ckers, and favorites to win the superbowl.

Now I know you gotta build that. But you gotta believe the people youre building from 7-10 to 10-7 with have that in them, or youll end up... like the Lions.

We'll see what they do next year. Maybe Campbell will make me eat crow. Im not saying he wont, but I dont see it as obvious yet.

And the parallels to the current coach and QB are obviously heavily implied LOL

[Alaskan Grizzly]

Saw this on Facebook with the commentary:  ‘Of the 13 QBs chosen in the 2018 draft, Sam Darnold will be the first to go to the Super Bowl.’  Crazy.  

[adam]

8 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

I think he’s more Madden like in that he’s not so much the strategist than he is the old school smash mouth style of football guy (which I’m a huge fan of). How many times did we hear Greg Olsen comment on how it was assumed that every time the Lions were short and 4th down Campbell was the guy that would go for it?  He’s been doing that for how long?  And because he stuck to that “script” and believed he could do it again, he’s now all of sudden being questioned for it.  It’s a live by the sword die by it mentality.  If he’d been successful and ended up eventually winning, we’d be having a different conversation. 
 

Going back to the exchange I had with Adam about levels of experience. When you have a handful of guys who have 7 playoff games among them versus another handful of guys that have 10 times as many, experience will mostly win in those situations.  I’d be surprised if Campbell continues making those calls as predictable going forward. 

Grizz, for the 4th down calls, I don't know if the predictability matters that much in terms of catching a team by surprise to gain an advantage. I know Campbell is old school, and that is fine, but going for it on every 4th down is anything but old school lol. I was just saying you have to understand the game situation. That is totally different than passing 100% of the time on 3rd Down, that predictability will put the defense in a more favorable position. For the 4th Down calls, if you are within a 50 yard FG range with favorable conditions, and you are down 3 or less, you take the points. Beyond 50 yards, fine. Inside the 10, fine. The first time he did it, I had no issues, they were up and trying to put the game away. Then down 3 and he does it again? Someone made a good analogy about it. He was a gambler who was up big at the table playing with the house's money the first time, so he could bet big, but then later, he had to borrow money to make the bet, and lost again.

What is interesting to me. Why doesn't Detroit treat 2-pt conversions the same way? They can double their points on that play, and it is only 2 yards?

[adam]

5 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Saw this on Facebook with the commentary:  ‘Of the 13 QBs chosen in the 2018 draft, Sam Darnold will be the first to go to the Super Bowl.’  Crazy.  

Where did Sam Darnold play in college? Hmmmm, interesting timing.

and Purdy and the 2022 draft. He makes it before Pickett, Howell, Ridder, Zappe, Thompson, and Willis!

[Stinger226]

Yesterday, I looked at every interview and read everything Poles have said. I get a huge impression he's going for the big haul on trading the first pick and running back with Fields.

A few days ago , the Bears put out a team promotion video that was all Justin Fields. Does a team do that if they getting rid of him? 

Fields next 3 years of cost, 2024=6 mil, 2025=22 mil, 2026 franchise tag 32.4 mil as of now. That's 3 years of an average 20 mil a year.   (The first pick in the draft will earn  a 38 mil contract for 4 years, that rookie contract is guaranteed money) Fields contract would be 20 th on QB contracts list right now. Last time I looked that's cheap for a starting QB in the NFL these days. Money won't come into play if they keep Fields.

 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

3 hours ago, adam said:

Where did Sam Darnold play in college? Hmmmm, interesting timing.

I didn’t remember so I had to look it up.  Did you know he was recruited by one of the defensive coaches to play linebacker?  

[adam]

1 hour ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

I didn’t remember so I had to look it up.  Did you know he was recruited by one of the defensive coaches to play linebacker?  

No who was he recruited by? Singletary?

[Alaskan Grizzly]

1 hour ago, adam said:

No who was he recruited by? Singletary?

From Wikipedia:  "USC defensive coordinator Justin Wilcox, who recruited Darnold to the school, wanted him to play linebacker before he declined."

[BearFan PHX]

we could probably pay Trubisky half that, whats the point?

I want a GOOD QB.

[adam]

Ben Johnson is staying in Detroit, turned down the SEA and WAS jobs, wow. Maybe he is waiting on the Bears position to open up?