Anything comments

[Stinger226]

40 minutes ago, killakrzydav said:

So lame that the two of you are always fighting.  It makes the forum of a few dozen people unreadable.

I agree with you, I just post information for and against keeping Fields, I post on prospects ,on mock drafts, other peoples information but I have no intert in fighting with anyone.  .That is not my agenda, I dont care if Im right or wrong, if doesnt matter if no one agrees with me. Its just being a Bears fan. If my posts annoy anyone, stop reading them , poeple dont need to get personal because they dont agree with me. I do repond when people bad mouth me, thats not going to change. I am not going to quit posting , none of it is done for sake of fighting. So i apologize to anyone that doesnt like this, I dont like it either. 

[Stinger226]

1 hour ago, adam said:

Guys, you both have been right and wrong before, I have too, it's ok. I can post about someone having a 300 yard game to support something I am posting about, but then Grizz comes in and reminds me that 120 of those yards were in garbage time. Everything has context and nuance, and we only ever know 50% or so of what is really going on unless someone on here is inside Halas Hall.

I try to post interesting info I find and discuss. I am wrong a lot, called out a bunch. It's all for fun. I laugh to myself at some comments, I disagree with others. Either I engage when it is counter to what I think and I try to provide evidence or I don't engage at all.

You are the most grounded person on this site , I dont always agree with you but I never attack you for it. I too, like to post both sides of a topic, of course I lean one way or another but always leave both options open. You can be wrong about facts, mis quote someone, but opinions dont have a right or wrong answer. This site is about dicussiong the Bears, it never has to get personal.

[Stinger226]

1 hour ago, adam said:

Here is the thing with the Fields vs Williams vs Other QB debate. I think no matter what direction the Bears go, they are a playoff team. If the Bears get a historic haul to trade out of the #1 pick, they will take it. If they don't get that type of offer, they probably go with a QB at #1, or even trade down and draft one later. 

If the Bears go into 2024 with Fields, they win at least 9 games, and probably as high as 11. I think if they go with Williams, for his rookie year, the floor may be 8, but the ceiling is around 12. If they go with someone like Maye, I think the floor is a little lower, 7-8 wins, and the ceiling is probably around 9-10 for his rookie year.

I totally agree with all of that, there is no wrong decision , one may have better results than the other one but both can still allow us to be a winning team in 2024.

[adam]

We sort of thought about this, but now it was said. Just some dudes opinion, but it does make sense because the Raiders think Getsy is one of the top 32 OC's in the world if they hired him. Getsy was Davante Adams' WR Coach early on his career, so I am sure he got a vote of confidence from him.

 

 

 

[BearFan PHX]

I saw a lot of open receivers on the all 22. I think Getsy did a pretty good job installing a modern NFL offense.

I think you can possibly criticize him for not creating an offense that is tailored only to what Justin does, but then again, I dunno if that would win games in the NFL anyway.

You had a QB that said he was thinking too much - in other words, he wasnt getting it.

We called too many screen passes, then again, maybe that was the only way to get Fields to actually throw the ball in structure. Almost every other pass he threw was on the run, other than the scripted 15 plays at the beginning of the game where he looked like a totally different QB.

So in other words, unless Justin could spend a LOT of time specifically on a play he knew was coming, he couldnt execute.

Now would I have rather we kept Getsy if we are going to draft Caleb Williams? Nope. I like Waldron and his staff a lot better.

But Justin was the problem. At this point, 3 years in with a ton of tape, it's fair to say.

otherwise we could talk about how Trubiksy didnt have perfection around him, and he might be JUST about to turn into a hall of famer any minute now.

So dumb.

[Stinger226]

 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

Saw the below post on X over the weekend.  Got me to thinking and ... whaddya know?  

  Aikman 1989-1991  Win/Loss record:  14-24 

  7,082 ttl passing yards, 31 TDs, 46 INTs

• 1989  159 passing yards / game  55.7 rate
• 1990  171.7 passing yds / game 66.6 rate
• 1991  229.5 passing yds / game 86.7 rate (made the Pro Bowl)

Fields 2021-2023  Win/Loss record:  10-28

6,674 ttl passing yards, 40 TDs / 30 INTs

• 2021  155.8 passing yds / game  73.2 rate
• 2022  149.5 passing yds / game  85.2 rate (chosen as #86 overall player by peers)
• 2023  197.1 passing yds / game  86.3 rate

Year four for Aikman (1992) was a pretty big one for him (and Dallas).  After losing in the second round of the playoffs in 1991 the Cowboys made it all the way to the Super Bowl and won it.  

 

[Mongo3451]

56 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Year four for Aikman (1992) was a pretty big one for him (and Dallas).  After losing in the second round of the playoffs in 1991 the Cowboys made it all the way to the Super Bowl and won it.  

Oh Skip.  I can tell you're a journalist.  Nice try.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

5 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

Oh Skip.  I can tell you're a journalist.  Nice try.

Well to be fair, Skip and Troy are not friends.  Ne’er theless…the stats are what they are.  

[adam]

3 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Saw the below post on X over the weekend.  Got me to thinking and ... whaddya know?  

  Aikman 1989-1991  Win/Loss record:  14-24 

  7,082 ttl passing yards, 31 TDs, 46 INTs

• 1989  159 passing yards / game  55.7 rate
• 1990  171.7 passing yds / game 66.6 rate
• 1991  229.5 passing yds / game 86.7 rate (made the Pro Bowl)

Fields 2021-2023  Win/Loss record:  10-28

6,674 ttl passing yards, 40 TDs / 30 INTs

• 2021  155.8 passing yds / game  73.2 rate
• 2022  149.5 passing yds / game  85.2 rate (chosen as #86 overall player by peers)
• 2023  197.1 passing yds / game  86.3 rate

Year four for Aikman (1992) was a pretty big one for him (and Dallas).  After losing in the second round of the playoffs in 1991 the Cowboys made it all the way to the Super Bowl and won it.  

 

That's the thing. Aikman should've never been a HoFer, he never was an All-Pro, never won the MVP, and led only 1 4QC in 15 playoff games.

His career stats are terrible, in 165 starts: 199 Y/G, 165 TD, 141 INT and a QB Rating of 81.6. He was on one of the most stacked teams of all time. He started his career 0-11 his rookie year. Even in his best season, he would fall 300+ yards short of the Bears Franchise record in a season. What is kind of funny is, he had Michael Irvin, Alvin Harper, Jay Novacek, and Emmitt and Aikman never passed for over 3,500 yards.

That Dallas team was so odd. They had double digit wins for 6 years straight from 1991 to 1996, yet their best record was 13-3. Having the best O-Line in football, one of the top 5 RBs of all-time and a top 10 Receiving Corps sure helps.

[Lucky Luciano]

1 hour ago, adam said:

That's the thing. Aikman should've never been a HoFer, he never was an All-Pro, never won the MVP, and led only 1 4QC in 15 playoff games.

His career stats are terrible, in 165 starts: 199 Y/G, 165 TD, 141 INT and a QB Rating of 81.6. He was on one of the most stacked teams of all time. He started his career 0-11 his rookie year. Even in his best season, he would fall 300+ yards short of the Bears Franchise record in a season. What is kind of funny is, he had Michael Irvin, Alvin Harper, Jay Novacek, and Emmitt and Aikman never passed for over 3,500 yards.

That Dallas team was so odd. They had double digit wins for 6 years straight from 1991 to 1996, yet their best record was 13-3. Having the best O-Line in football, one of the top 5 RBs of all-time and a top 10 Receiving Corps sure helps.

i gotta disagree. i HATE the cowboys with a passion but aikman was an excellent qb who in my opinion does belong in the HOF.

the reason the stats are so skewed is because of emmit smith and the offensive line. he didn't HAVE to light it up every game. the boys running game was exemplary.

[Stinger226]

1 hour ago, Lucky Luciano said:

i gotta disagree. i HATE the cowboys with a passion but aikman was an excellent qb who in my opinion does belong in the HOF.

the reason the stats are so skewed is because of emmit smith and the offensive line. he didn't HAVE to light it up every game. the boys running game was exemplary.

True good QBs get on teams that are running teams first, it screws up thier stats.

[Mongo3451]

I should have went into more detail, why I disagree with the analogy.  The game was different 32 years ago.  If anyone thinks that Justin and Aikman took the same beating, they would be completely wrong.  That's just the start.  It was a RB dominated league back then, yet Aikman's stats are better.  In today's game, they would be 20-30% higher.  Year three, Aikman makes Pro Bowl.  Justin made the swirly bowl.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

Jerry in camp JF1.  He felt OC was the issue. 

 

[ChileBear]

49 minutes ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

Jerry in camp JF1.  He felt OC was the issue. 

 

Most "talented" yes, but definitely not the most winning nor who you want when trailing late in the game. Athleticism is awesome, but the ability to read D and release quick is better at the QB position. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[BearFan PHX]

Adam Schefter is usually pretty reliable. he's not a clickbait guy, and he is a true insider reporter.

"ESPN insider Adam Schefter appeared on The Pat McAfee Show, where he explained the belief around the league is Chicago will draft Williams with the first overall pick."

"the feeling around the league seems to be that they’ll wind up trading Justin."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/other/adam-schefter-widespread-consensus-that-bears-will-draft-caleb-williams-at-no-1/ar-BB1hODaX

[Mongo3451]

Urlacher was just on Waddle and Silvey.  They brought up how popular Justin is in the locker room.  He spoke about what a great dynamic that is.  Then, he asked, "but are they winning"?  As a locker room leader, he said that players love their QB more when they win.  He said Caleb...

[Stinger226]

19 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

Adam Schefter is usually pretty reliable. he's not a clickbait guy, and he is a true insider reporter.

"ESPN insider Adam Schefter appeared on The Pat McAfee Show, where he explained the belief around the league is Chicago will draft Williams with the first overall pick."

"the feeling around the league seems to be that they’ll wind up trading Justin."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/other/adam-schefter-widespread-consensus-that-bears-will-draft-caleb-williams-at-no-1/ar-BB1hODaX

Im interested in what Poles is feeling, anonymous opinions are irrelevant. 

[Stinger226]

This is long but at 1:02 Cris Simms gives an interview. He has a feeling that the Bears will draft CW but does like Justin. Runs the whole gamit of the argument.

 

[adam]

12 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

This is long but at 1:02 Cris Simms gives an interview. He has a feeling that the Bears will draft CW but does like Justin. Runs the whole gamit of the argument.

 

I think Fields situation is going to come down to financials, that will be the trigger. 

If the Bears tag or resign JJ, even with cuts of Whitehair and Jackson, they would be up against the cap with a Fields pay raise. So basically the Bears would have to run this back with no new FAs other than vet minimum roster fillers and new rookies. It is doable, but you need to stock up on early picks to replace your expensive vets. 

The Chiefs cap is comical next year. Mahomes is $57M, Thuney is $26M, Taylor is $24M, Kelce is $15M, Reid is $14M, MVS is $14M, and Omenihu is $11M. No other player is over $5M. So basically, the new framework with the outrageous QB salaries is $50M QB, 2x players in the $20M range, then 4-5 in the $10M range, then every other player on a rookie deal or making under $5M. 

The Bears ironically have a similar structure already, just without the QB salary, Sweat and Edmunds - $20M, Moore, Kmet, and Davis - $10M, and we are assuming JJ comes in under Edmunds but over Moore. That would be 6 non-QBs making over $10M just like the Chiefs. 

SF has low QB contract structure with 10 over $10M (1 even over $30M), but don't have to pay a QB right now. That is the other model. 

If the Bears don't make a trade before FA opens, but start signing 2-3 guys to $10M deals, we sort of know which way they are going because they can't afford those guys if Fields is going to get paid. 

6-7 guys $10M or more = big QB contract
10-11 guys $10M or more = small QB contract

[Alaskan Grizzly]

Kittle being Kittle 

https://www.instagram.com/reel/C3AlG8sL65w/?igsh=MThpemk0NTJ0OGhxbw==

[Stinger226]

2 hours ago, adam said:

I think Fields situation is going to come down to financials, that will be the trigger. 

If the Bears tag or resign JJ, even with cuts of Whitehair and Jackson, they would be up against the cap with a Fields pay raise. So basically the Bears would have to run this back with no new FAs other than vet minimum roster fillers and new rookies. It is doable, but you need to stock up on early picks to replace your expensive vets. 

The Chiefs cap is comical next year. Mahomes is $57M, Thuney is $26M, Taylor is $24M, Kelce is $15M, Reid is $14M, MVS is $14M, and Omenihu is $11M. No other player is over $5M. So basically, the new framework with the outrageous QB salaries is $50M QB, 2x players in the $20M range, then 4-5 in the $10M range, then every other player on a rookie deal or making under $5M. 

The Bears ironically have a similar structure already, just without the QB salary, Sweat and Edmunds - $20M, Moore, Kmet, and Davis - $10M, and we are assuming JJ comes in under Edmunds but over Moore. That would be 6 non-QBs making over $10M just like the Chiefs. 

SF has low QB contract structure with 10 over $10M (1 even over $30M), but don't have to pay a QB right now. That is the other model. 

If the Bears don't make a trade before FA opens, but start signing 2-3 guys to $10M deals, we sort of know which way they are going because they can't afford those guys if Fields is going to get paid. 

6-7 guys $10M or more = big QB contract
10-11 guys $10M or more = small QB contract

I agree money will come into play but not for several  years. 6 mil this year, 25 mil if we pick up the option for 2025. The tag for a QB in 2024 is 35 mil . It will be a little higher in 2026. say 40 mil? The cap will continue to climb and Poles is managing the cap well. Only 7 players over 10 mil this year. 2 of those will be gone this year and in 2025 both Nate Davis and Edmunds could be cut with only 7 mil in dead money. In 2026 only Sweat and Kmet are over 10 mil. We will resign Moore (23 mil?) The base will all be young players on cheap contracts, Poles moves are surgical to allow to pay  QB in 2026. 

He will load up on draft picks and keep the cycle going. he will bring in people like Billings, Walker and Edwards, that total 16 mil in year 2025. This year he will tag JJ for 18.4 mil, 2025 it will cost 20 mil to tag him. By then Terrel Smith will unseat JJ. He will sign a few FAs to contracts like Edwards, and Billings. I doubt he signs another big contract.

He will bring in a WR, FS,OC,3 T all on contracts under 10 mil. The other spots will be filled by the draft.

Money is not a problem period.

 

[Mongo3451]

1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:

Money is not a problem period.

Money is not a problem, yet.  The minute you overpay Fields, it compromises the ability to retain other players.  If you pay Mahomes, he makes up for it with his greatness.  If you pay Justin, he will need to do the same or it's a flatline. It may not be that way ?, but percentages say it is.  I'm not going to the casino with that mindset.

[Stinger226]

9 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

Money is not a problem, yet.  The minute you overpay Fields, it compromises the ability to retain other players.  If you pay Mahomes, he makes up for it with his greatness.  If you pay Justin, he will need to do the same or it's a flatline. It may not be that way ?, but percentages say it is.  I'm not going to the casino with that mindset.

He definitely has to make a decision on Fields, i just dont thinks its this year. If he takes Williams, that process goes away. I still think he will keep Fields and draft a QB ,maybe with the second round pick.  McCarthy, Nix, Penix, or a surprise pick. He developes him in one or two years, he moves on from Fields unless we make a trip to the SB. He can bring him back and not pick up the option. Giants did that with Jones. The first pick in the draft will make more money than Justin does this year. I think Poles is  using this year to advance the talent on the roster and still have a QB option. 

 KC is in the SB with paying a 57 mil, 27 mil, 25 mil, 15 mil, 14 mil, 14 mil, and 11 mil in contracts. They will have 24 mil to the good in cap space this year. We dont have to worry about money for two years. 

[adam]

2 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

I agree money will come into play but not for several  years. 6 mil this year, 25 mil if we pick up the option for 2025. The tag for a QB in 2024 is 35 mil . It will be a little higher in 2026. say 40 mil? The cap will continue to climb and Poles is managing the cap well. Only 7 players over 10 mil this year. 2 of those will be gone this year and in 2025 both Nate Davis and Edmunds could be cut with only 7 mil in dead money. In 2026 only Sweat and Kmet are over 10 mil. We will resign Moore (23 mil?) The base will all be young players on cheap contracts, Poles moves are surgical to allow to pay  QB in 2026. 

He will load up on draft picks and keep the cycle going. he will bring in people like Billings, Walker and Edwards, that total 16 mil in year 2025. This year he will tag JJ for 18.4 mil, 2025 it will cost 20 mil to tag him. By then Terrel Smith will unseat JJ. He will sign a few FAs to contracts like Edwards, and Billings. I doubt he signs another big contract.

He will bring in a WR, FS,OC,3 T all on contracts under 10 mil. The other spots will be filled by the draft.

Money is not a problem period.

 

I am not saying money is a problem, but it is a huge consideration, and in order to have sustained success, you have to look out and plan 3-5 years out.  If every contract was a one year deal, sure no problem, but some contracts are 4-5 years. Poles obviously has a road map and the entire path is predicated on players and their contracts. 

I honestly think Poles never envisioned being in this position. He was planning on going into Year 3 with Fields as QB in his 4th season with 2x new 1st round draft picks on the roster. Getting the #1 overall pick has changed things.

Now he has two of the best options a GM can have. Keep rolling with the current QB and load up on picks or roll the dice, draft a new QB and reset the QB timeline.

Drafting a rookie QB does buy him 3 years of a small QB cap hit. If he goes with Fields, he knows that he has to pay that big money 3 years sooner (in 2026) but would have more players on rookie deals. He can make it work either way.