Anything comments

[Alaskan Grizzly]

Point of discussion.  Saw this on a random social media site. 
 

[Mongo3451]

It's weird that their QBR is so far apart.  I like Sanders.  He'll be one of the top QBs next year.

[Stinger226]

3 hours ago, adam said:

I am not saying money is a problem, but it is a huge consideration, and in order to have sustained success, you have to look out and plan 3-5 years out.  If every contract was a one year deal, sure no problem, but some contracts are 4-5 years. Poles obviously has a road map and the entire path is predicated on players and their contracts. 

I honestly think Poles never envisioned being in this position. He was planning on going into Year 3 with Fields as QB in his 4th season with 2x new 1st round draft picks on the roster. Getting the #1 overall pick has changed things.

Now he has two of the best options a GM can have. Keep rolling with the current QB and load up on picks or roll the dice, draft a new QB and reset the QB timeline.

Drafting a rookie QB does buy him 3 years of a small QB cap hit. If he goes with Fields, he knows that he has to pay that big money 3 years sooner (in 2026) but would have more players on rookie deals. He can make it work either way.

All options are on the table, it makes for the biggest off season we have ever had. IMO they keep Fields and draft a QB is his best option. If Williams is Mahomes !!, sign me up. If we get a draft load and MHJ, I'm all in. I like all the options. 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

2 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

It's weird that their QBR is so far apart.  I like Sanders.  He'll be one of the top QBs next year.

My original answer didn't make it...hmm.

QBR isn't something I'm well versed in.  Its an ESPN schematic that I think factors in other things like rushing yardage, turnover percentages and a few other "scientific" factor points.  Adam is much more adept at it than I. 

Anyhow, I didn't realize both were Juniors.  And assume that Sanders is staying in Colorado for another year?  What I find interesting is that they were both in the same Conference so they (mostly) had the same competition.  I do recall you liking Sanders, so that should be my primary reason for dis-liking him.  ?

[adam]

11 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

My original answer didn't make it...hmm.

QBR isn't something I'm well versed in.  Its an ESPN schematic that I think factors in other things like rushing yardage, turnover percentages and a few other "scientific" factor points.  Adam is much more adept at it than I. 

Anyhow, I didn't realize both were Juniors.  And assume that Sanders is staying in Colorado for another year?  What I find interesting is that they were both in the same Conference so they (mostly) had the same competition.  I do recall you liking Sanders, so that should be my primary reason for dis-liking him.  ?

Those are not the final stats. Here they are:

Sanders: 298-430, 69.3%, 3230 yds, 8.5 Y/A, 27 TD, 3 INT; Rushing 111- (-77) yds, 4 TD

Williams: 266-388, 68.6%, 3633 yds, 9.4 Y/A, 30 TD, 5 INT; Rushing 97-142 yds, 11 TD

QBR does factor in rushing and sacks. Williams ended up with an extra TD per game, which is a pretty big deal. 
 

Sanders is an intriguing prospect, but that was his only year at QB, so he only has 430 pass attempts, which would have an extremely high bust rate. He went back to school to pad his stats and he should be one of the top picks in 2025. He is sort of overshadowed by his coach.

 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

38 minutes ago, adam said:

Sanders is an intriguing prospect, but that was his only year at QB,

"Intriguing" indeed.  Especially when you compare him to a QB who started for three years AND won the Heisman once and these were the comps.  Hmm....?

 

 

 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

37 minutes ago, adam said:

Sanders: 298-430, 69.3%, 3230 yds, 8.5 Y/A, 27 TD, 3 INT; Rushing 111- (-77) yds, 4 TD

Williams: 266-388, 68.6%, 3633 yds, 9.4 Y/A, 30 TD, 5 INT; Rushing 97-142 yds, 11 TD

QBR does factor in rushing and sacks. Williams ended up with an extra TD per game, which is a pretty big deal. 

Would you look at that.  The big disparity in overall TDs appears to be in the "rushing TDs".  Hmmm...  ?

[BearFan PHX]

25 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Would you look at that.  The big disparity in overall TDs appears to be in the "rushing TDs".  Hmmm...  ?

LOL If Fields could read defenses at even just a pretty good level, his running would put him over the top and he'd be a top 5 QB. No doubt a QB with legs adds a whole other dimension to what the defense has to defend against, which should make the passing easier!

But without the core competency, it just doesnt work.

It'd be like having a running back who was a genius at cutting and breaking tackles, but just couldnt run forward at all. Without the core skill, the additional ones arent enough.

Now I hear that some people think a new coach and situation will unlock that. And if they do, he will be a really good QB.

I just dont personally see the film that shows me it's in there. It was his #1 weakness coming out of college too.

But, someone is gonna bet a 2nd or 1st rounder that they can unlock him, and if they do, it will be a huge upside for them if they succeed. I just wouldnt bet on it myself. I think it is really unlikely.

[Mongo3451]

2 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

My original answer didn't make it...hmm.

What was your original answer?

[Alaskan Grizzly]

15 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

What was your original answer?

Same thing different delivery.  For some reason my phone doesn't always make the connection.  Sometimes I'll submit a message only to see it didn't take.  

There's a lot of internets-webby stuff between Alaska and the rest of the world.  

 

[DABEARSDABOMB]

2 hours ago, adam said:

Those are not the final stats. Here they are:

Sanders: 298-430, 69.3%, 3230 yds, 8.5 Y/A, 27 TD, 3 INT; Rushing 111- (-77) yds, 4 TD

Williams: 266-388, 68.6%, 3633 yds, 9.4 Y/A, 30 TD, 5 INT; Rushing 97-142 yds, 11 TD

QBR does factor in rushing and sacks. Williams ended up with an extra TD per game, which is a pretty big deal. 
 

Sanders is an intriguing prospect, but that was his only year at QB, so he only has 430 pass attempts, which would have an extremely high bust rate. He went back to school to pad his stats and he should be one of the top picks in 2025. He is sort of overshadowed by his coach.

 

You also have fact that against Top 25 competition - Caleb Williams actually performed better across his career than all of the other top QB's.  I need to find the article - but there was a myth busting article done which highlighted all of the main QB's performance(s) vs. Top 25 and Top 10.  Williams was consistently 1/2 and in all cases his stats were very strong. JJ McCarthy and Daniels were other benefactors - Bo Nix and Drake Maye's metrics were not good.  

[DABEARSDABOMB]

2 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Would you look at that.  The big disparity in overall TDs appears to be in the "rushing TDs".  Hmmm...  ?

In college - on unpressured rushes - Caleb Williams ran <3% of the time - Justin Fields ran ~10% of the time.  Caleb Williams can run - but he DOES NOT look to run.  In fact one of the knocks on him holding the ball too long is that he continues to use his eyes to look downfield to make the pass when he could actually take off more and move on to the next play. 

Caleb Williams and Justin Fields ARE NOT anywhere on the same spectrum in terms of the type of play they have. Fields is huge and physically elite across all things - but reality is - everything he does is off script and outside the pocket. Caleb Williams excels in the pocket and off script. He can go off script more than you like - but his eyes are consistently downfield and he looks to make plays with his arm vs. legs.  

Both were incredibly good college QB's and Williams does have all the physical passing traits that Field(s) does - i.e., huge arm that can make all the throws and an accurate arm.  Williams is mobile - but Fields is way way better in terms of his pure running athleticism.  Fields pocket awareness is weak and his ability to play in the pocket is poor (if it was even decent no one would even be commenting on whether they should keep the #1 pick or trade for a haul) where as in college Williams pocket awareness was a strength.  

None of that may translate into the pro's - but they are not the same player / type of player.  

[Alaskan Grizzly]

13 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

In college - on unpressured rushes - Caleb Williams ran <3% of the time - Justin Fields ran ~10% of the time.  Caleb Williams can run - but he DOES NOT look to run.  In fact one of the knocks on him holding the ball too long is that he continues to use his eyes to look downfield to make the pass when he could actually take off more and move on to the next play.

Williams' collegiate career rushing (3 years / 37 games):  289 attempts for 966 yards for 27 TDs  

Fields' collegiate career rushing (3 years / 34 games):  260 attempts for 1133 yards for 19 TDs.

How is "holding the ball too long is that he continues to use his eyes to look downfield to make the pass..." different from what we've seen Justin do?  

[BearFan PHX]

19 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

How is "holding the ball too long is that he continues to use his eyes to look downfield to make the pass..." different from what we've seen Justin do?  

Because Williams is looking for deeper routes to come open, and Fields takes the ball down and runs.

When Fields doesnt pull the trigger on his first read, he usually bails and then improvises. if he throws after that, it's not at the break point of a route, but free form sandlot stuff. Which is fun to watch with NFL level players.

When Williams isn't taking his first read, it's because he is looking for a homerun throw. Not done looking at the play, but being too greedy; waiting for the longest route to reach its break. Not giving up on the routes as designed altogether.

The difference is Williams is still in structure at that point, and Fields has already broken the play.

[BearFan PHX]

36 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

In college - on unpressured rushes - Caleb Williams ran <3% of the time - Justin Fields ran ~10% of the time.  Caleb Williams can run - but he DOES NOT look to run.  In fact one of the knocks on him holding the ball too long is that he continues to use his eyes to look downfield to make the pass when he could actually take off more and move on to the next play. 

Caleb Williams and Justin Fields ARE NOT anywhere on the same spectrum in terms of the type of play they have. Fields is huge and physically elite across all things - but reality is - everything he does is off script and outside the pocket. Caleb Williams excels in the pocket and off script. He can go off script more than you like - but his eyes are consistently downfield and he looks to make plays with his arm vs. legs.  

Both were incredibly good college QB's and Williams does have all the physical passing traits that Field(s) does - i.e., huge arm that can make all the throws and an accurate arm.  Williams is mobile - but Fields is way way better in terms of his pure running athleticism.  Fields pocket awareness is weak and his ability to play in the pocket is poor (if it was even decent no one would even be commenting on whether they should keep the #1 pick or trade for a haul) where as in college Williams pocket awareness was a strength.  

None of that may translate into the pro's - but they are not the same player / type of player.  

well said.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

Maybe one last rambling. Both are good choices for the Bears. If the Bears didn’t have the Panthers pick and just had our pick at 9 - I would be entirely focused on  adding more weapons for Justin and continuing to see if we could unlock his potential. 
 

That is because everything I said about Justin - physically he has all the tools - mentally he is an incredible leader - it is purely as a pocket passer what limits him and if Bears weren’t holding #1 pick I would say let’s see what another year could do cause the upside is worth it. 

So in my mind - the above implies Fields is absolutely still a viable qb1 with upside. Hence if we trade him the market should be good, because everything I said above.

Where everything gets wild is the Bears have a #1 pick with an elite qb prospect in the draft where the Bears don’t have to trade assets to get him, don’t have to mortgage future, and can reset the clock. It could be Williams is worse but pure passing wise he is a better prospect than Fields. Fields is an absolute stud from the pure tools side though (Allen and Herbert are the 2 on same hemisphere as Justin when it comes to physical tools. 
 

So if Poles wanted to get a haul and build a better team - while it isn’t what I do - I still think the Bears are a better team because of it. 
 

Really the only scenario I would hate is - Bears select MHJ at #1. I hate hate hate that scenario. If I’m not taking a qb at #1 than I advocate for a haul. Now maybe I get that haul and am at #3 and take MHJ which I am perfectly fine with. 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

57 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

Maybe one last rambling. Both are good choices for the Bears. If the Bears didn’t have the Panthers pick and just had our pick at 9 - I would be entirely focused on  adding more weapons for Justin and continuing to see if we could unlock his potential. 
 

That is because everything I said about Justin - physically he has all the tools - mentally he is an incredible leader - it is purely as a pocket passer what limits him and if Bears weren’t holding #1 pick I would say let’s see what another year could do cause the upside is worth it. 

So in my mind - the above implies Fields is absolutely still a viable qb1 with upside. Hence if we trade him the market should be good, because everything I said above.

Where everything gets wild is the Bears have a #1 pick with an elite qb prospect in the draft where the Bears don’t have to trade assets to get him, don’t have to mortgage future, and can reset the clock. It could be Williams is worse but pure passing wise he is a better prospect than Fields. Fields is an absolute stud from the pure tools side though (Allen and Herbert are the 2 on same hemisphere as Justin when it comes to physical tools. 
 

So if Poles wanted to get a haul and build a better team - while it isn’t what I do - I still think the Bears are a better team because of it. 
 

Really the only scenario I would hate is - Bears select MHJ at #1. I hate hate hate that scenario. If I’m not taking a qb at #1 than I advocate for a haul. Now maybe I get that haul and am at #3 and take MHJ which I am perfectly fine with. 

Well said. I would agree with just about all of it. I’d be willing to take MHJ overall just because that’s how talented I think he is.  But because the team needs more overall pieces and capital I can’t overlook that aspect just to have him “at any cost”.  Really for the same reason I can’t consider taking any of the prospective QBs at #1.  I’m of the belief there is enough talent among the QB prospects that one of them could be had in the lower part of round one or early 2.  And while doing so giving Justin a run for his money.  Thank you for the great response.  Much appreciated.  

[Alaskan Grizzly]

Hey Mongo, looks like your namesake is making it in.  Along with Peppers and Hester.  How cool!  

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

Maybe one last rambling. Both are good choices for the Bears. If the Bears didn’t have the Panthers pick and just had our pick at 9 - I would be entirely focused on  adding more weapons for Justin and continuing to see if we could unlock his potential. 
 

That is because everything I said about Justin - physically he has all the tools - mentally he is an incredible leader - it is purely as a pocket passer what limits him and if Bears weren’t holding #1 pick I would say let’s see what another year could do cause the upside is worth it. 

So in my mind - the above implies Fields is absolutely still a viable qb1 with upside. Hence if we trade him the market should be good, because everything I said above.

Where everything gets wild is the Bears have a #1 pick with an elite qb prospect in the draft where the Bears don’t have to trade assets to get him, don’t have to mortgage future, and can reset the clock. It could be Williams is worse but pure passing wise he is a better prospect than Fields. Fields is an absolute stud from the pure tools side though (Allen and Herbert are the 2 on same hemisphere as Justin when it comes to physical tools. 
 

So if Poles wanted to get a haul and build a better team - while it isn’t what I do - I still think the Bears are a better team because of it. 
 

Really the only scenario I would hate is - Bears select MHJ at #1. I hate hate hate that scenario. If I’m not taking a qb at #1 than I advocate for a haul. Now maybe I get that haul and am at #3 and take MHJ which I am perfectly fine with. 

I hear your logic. I dont think the light is ever going to come on for Fields, but if you think it's a good possibility, (and youre not alone in that), then cool.

But just consider that if you're wrong in that, we dont sniff the #1 pick again, and are doomed to hell until the defense fades and we can win fewer than 3 games. Last time we had to strip the roster to get here. So thats many years off.

On the other hand, if you draft a rookie and they do OK it doesnt really matter if Juston goes and balls out somewhere else - then youre still on schedule and can build around the rookie QB.

I do know how seductive that treasure trove thats offered form #1 is, but then again there is someone who cant wait to pay it because they think Caleb is worth more. And if he IS the guy they say, then hes worth a LOT more. (or some other top QB if you prefer)

But even if you trade down a few slots and take a Maye or Daniels or whatever, youve got a rookie deal window, and a top first round pick QB to work with. And there is less risk in that, than there is in developing Justin who has 3 years on film against NFL defenses not seeing the WRs.

I believe that from where Im standing right now, there's a 1 in 3 chance that if we draft Caleb, he will be a HOF QB and win multiple superbowls for us. 1/3 HOF & SBs, 1/3 serviceable top 10 QB in the league, 1/3 bust.

I think you gotta punch that ticket or have a really compelling reason not to, and two extra first round picks isnt it for me. I dont see 2 extra first rounders taking us to SB wins. Not like a franchise type QB can.

But if you think Caleb will bust, and Justin will flourish, then obviously everything Ive just said doesnt mean much.

But I think there are more winning outcomes with a rookie QB than with Justin, and the stakes are so high this year.

 

[Mongo3451]

1 hour ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Hey Mongo, looks like your namesake is making it in.  Along with Peppers and Hester.  How cool!  

I can only hope.  I called Carmen and Jurko to ask, who was Mongo first?  They couldn't define, so I call a tie.  He was always be the greatest Mongo.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

3 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Hey Mongo, looks like your namesake is making it in.  Along with Peppers and Hester.  How cool!  

This is awesome. 

[DABEARSDABOMB]

3 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

I hear your logic. I dont think the light is ever going to come on for Fields, but if you think it's a good possibility, (and youre not alone in that), then cool.

But just consider that if you're wrong in that, we dont sniff the #1 pick again, and are doomed to hell until the defense fades and we can win fewer than 3 games. Last time we had to strip the roster to get here. So thats many years off.

On the other hand, if you draft a rookie and they do OK it doesnt really matter if Juston goes and balls out somewhere else - then youre still on schedule and can build around the rookie QB.

I do know how seductive that treasure trove thats offered form #1 is, but then again there is someone who cant wait to pay it because they think Caleb is worth more. And if he IS the guy they say, then hes worth a LOT more. (or some other top QB if you prefer)

But even if you trade down a few slots and take a Maye or Daniels or whatever, youve got a rookie deal window, and a top first round pick QB to work with. And there is less risk in that, than there is in developing Justin who has 3 years on film against NFL defenses not seeing the WRs.

I believe that from where Im standing right now, there's a 1 in 3 chance that if we draft Caleb, he will be a HOF QB and win multiple superbowls for us. 1/3 HOF & SBs, 1/3 serviceable top 10 QB in the league, 1/3 bust.

I think you gotta punch that ticket or have a really compelling reason not to, and two extra first round picks isnt it for me. I dont see 2 extra first rounders taking us to SB wins. Not like a franchise type QB can.

But if you think Caleb will bust, and Justin will flourish, then obviously everything Ive just said doesnt mean much.

But I think there are more winning outcomes with a rookie QB than with Justin, and the stakes are so high this year.

 

Well said and I agree with you. I prefer the take Caleb and go from there but I certainly get the other side of the coin. In either case - Bears are in a spot they haven’t been in in my lifetime and I hope whatever choice they make turns this team into a dynasty!!! 

[BearFan PHX]

6 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

Well said and I agree with you. I prefer the take Caleb and go from there but I certainly get the other side of the coin. In either case - Bears are in a spot they haven’t been in in my lifetime and I hope whatever choice they make turns this team into a dynasty!!! 

me too! and also that whatever choice they make doesnt damn them to QB hell in the foreseeable future.

Whatever we do, if we get it wrong, it'll be a while before we could have a #1 pick again, and we'd be replacing that QB with the 2nd or 3rd rated QB in the draft most likely without a #1 pick. And we've been in that hell for many decades.

The only ways out are to

1) tank hard (which you cant do for years with this defense)

2) trade future first rounders to move up IF the team at #1 doesnt want to just stay and take their 1st choice of QB

3) pay huge for a free agent ala Cutler, and they are never the best guy in the NFL either.

This is our shot right here, and that's reason alone to move on from Justin. This opportunity wont come again for a long time.

[Stinger226]

7 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

me too! and also that whatever choice they make doesnt damn them to QB hell in the foreseeable future.

Whatever we do, if we get it wrong, it'll be a while before we could have a #1 pick again, and we'd be replacing that QB with the 2nd or 3rd rated QB in the draft most likely without a #1 pick. And we've been in that hell for many decades.

The only ways out are to

1) tank hard (which you cant do for years with this defense)

2) trade future first rounders to move up IF the team at #1 doesnt want to just stay and take their 1st choice of QB

3) pay huge for a free agent ala Cutler, and they are never the best guy in the NFL either.

This is our shot right here, and that's reason alone to move on from Justin. This opportunity wont come again for a long time.

im at O'Hare and a guy sitting near me is on the phone with John Harbaugh, this guy is some kind of coach. I overheard JH say he was going to try to trade for Justin Fields. It's strange he's on speaker phone, but now I'll try to verify that and get back to you.

 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

On 2/5/2024 at 10:25 PM, BearFan PHX said:

Adam Schefter is usually pretty reliable. he's not a clickbait guy, and he is a true insider reporter.

"ESPN insider Adam Schefter appeared on The Pat McAfee Show, where he explained the belief around the league is Chicago will draft Williams with the first overall pick."

"the feeling around the league seems to be that they’ll wind up trading Justin."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/other/adam-schefter-widespread-consensus-that-bears-will-draft-caleb-williams-at-no-1/ar-BB1hODaX

This one got me...