Situational Football and Position Groups

[adam]

So it seems that the offseason moves have improved pretty much every facet of the team.

If you look at it from a high level, on offense, the passing game should be improved, and at worst, the running game should be the same. The Bears added Moore, Wright, and Davis, as well as Foreman, Johnson, Scott, and Tonyan, and really only "lost" Montgomery since losing Mustipher is an upgrade in itself. If the offense is better and has some additional TOP, then the defense will be a little more rested and potentially get off the field a few more times.

On defense, the run defense was historically bad. With the additions to the DLine and LB Corps, the run defense should be better. Edmunds and Edwards are tackling machines and rarely miss tackles. For pass defense, it should be the same, if not better with the addition of Stevenson and the ability of Edmunds. The pass rush is still an issue, but again, it is no worse than last year. Like I said above, if the offense is slightly better, then the defense should benefit from that as well.

Now if we look into situational football, the the 1st Down offense is going to be better. Moore alone should do that, but also Foreman and Johnson as well. Then on 3rd Down, here is a crazy stat from Twitter: 

So the Bears targeted Pettis 21 times on 3rd and 4th Down and got 2 first downs from those targets. Moore, Tonyan, and Scott should improve that number drastically. Even if the Bears go from 2 of 21, to say 10 of 21, that is 8 additional first downs, just from targets to Pettis.

On defense, with a much improved run defense, 1st Down defense should be better giving the other team some additional 3rd and longs. Without much of an upgraded pass rush, 3rd Down defense will probably be very similar to last year, but possibly a tick better if the other teams have longer downs to convert. 

 

So what do you think? It feels like the 8 to 9 win target seems completely reasonable based on this perspective. 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

I think Billings alone will improve the DT position, Justin Jones and Armon Watts couldn't stop teams from running.  The Bears were bottom in almost every run stopping category. Add Dexter/Pickens with Billings and the rotation should be worst case middle of the pack.  They tinkered with the idea of moving Justin Jones to DE, so he might get some time outside this year too. When teams cannot run, it will give the DBs more opportunity to take the ball when they shift the game plan to pass more. Eberflus's D needs take aways to be potent and if we stop the run, opportunities for int will increase.  They also have the money to bring in a pass rusher and Justin Houstin could be an addition to bring another vet to help bolster that until we can address it long term in the draft.

On offense, Fields needs to process faster and if the additions the Bears made helps him there, they should take off.  

The Bears will not get national respect until they show up.  Us diehards have the vision, but nationally there will be negative expectations and projections of being a bottom 5 team. 

[Stinger226]

What we have now are DTs can play run better but also occupy OL that will allow LBers to be more viable in coverage and the run game. Our LB group now will have  the best missed tackle percentage in the league. Last year Edmunds only had one missed tackle. As much as I was shocked by the spending at the LB spot but it adds so much to both pass coverage and run stops. We have some smart people running this team.

[BearFan2000]

23 hours ago, adam said:

So it seems that the offseason moves have improved pretty much every facet of the team.

If you look at it from a high level, on offense, the passing game should be improved, and at worst, the running game should be the same. The Bears added Moore, Wright, and Davis, as well as Foreman, Johnson, Scott, and Tonyan, and really only "lost" Montgomery since losing Mustipher is an upgrade in itself. If the offense is better and has some additional TOP, then the defense will be a little more rested and potentially get off the field a few more times.

On defense, the run defense was historically bad. With the additions to the DLine and LB Corps, the run defense should be better. Edmunds and Edwards are tackling machines and rarely miss tackles. For pass defense, it should be the same, if not better with the addition of Stevenson and the ability of Edmunds. The pass rush is still an issue, but again, it is no worse than last year. Like I said above, if the offense is slightly better, then the defense should benefit from that as well.

Now if we look into situational football, the the 1st Down offense is going to be better. Moore alone should do that, but also Foreman and Johnson as well. Then on 3rd Down, here is a crazy stat from Twitter: 

So the Bears targeted Pettis 21 times on 3rd and 4th Down and got 2 first downs from those targets. Moore, Tonyan, and Scott should improve that number drastically. Even if the Bears go from 2 of 21, to say 10 of 21, that is 8 additional first downs, just from targets to Pettis.

On defense, with a much improved run defense, 1st Down defense should be better giving the other team some additional 3rd and longs. Without much of an upgraded pass rush, 3rd Down defense will probably be very similar to last year, but possibly a tick better if the other teams have longer downs to convert. 

 

So what do you think? It feels like the 8 to 9 win target seems completely reasonable based on this perspective. 

I think this is a good assessment of the big picture. It wasn’t all going to be fixed in one offseason but Poles addressed as many areas as could and he’s not done.  But the changes made should at the very least raise the floor and the ceiling on the Bears in 2023. To me it’s a sum of all parts being better kinda thing.  
 

One narrative this offseason that has annoyed the crap out of me.  That Ashkum eluded to about the national perspective vs us fan’s perspective.  It bugs me when I hear the line “they were the worst team in football last year”.  It’s lazy low hanging fruit.  Yes, we had the worst record but if you actually watch the games you see a team that was better than it’s record. Certainly the most competitive 3-14 team I’ve seen in some time.  We know that, but the reality is the national perspective won’t change till that competitive effort translates into results.  

[adam]

43 minutes ago, BearFan2000 said:

I think this is a good assessment of the big picture. It wasn’t all going to be fixed in one offseason but Poles addressed as many areas as could and he’s not done.  But the changes made should at the very least raise the floor and the ceiling on the Bears in 2023. To me it’s a sum of all parts being better kinda thing.  
 

One narrative this offseason that has annoyed the crap out of me.  That Ashkum eluded to about the national perspective vs us fan’s perspective.  It bugs me when I hear the line “they were the worst team in football last year”.  It’s lazy low hanging fruit.  Yes, we had the worst record but if you actually watch the games you see a team that was better than it’s record. Certainly the most competitive 3-14 team I’ve seen in some time.  We know that, but the reality is the national perspective won’t change till that competitive effort translates into results.  

The Bears as a punching bag ramped back up after the Trubisky pick unfortunately. Not only was it laughed at then, we have been reminded of it constantly since that point. 

I just don't understand the hate of Fields. The Bears were not even in position to draft a QB in 2021. So to get Fields and after Wilson and Lance seems like a crazy good deal. The Giants got Neal and Toney out of the Fields trade. Toney is no longer on the team and Neal was terrible as a rookie. 

Do people even look at other players' stats? Lamar Jackson averages about 175 passing yards per game for his career, and has never topped 3127 yds (when he won MVP) in a season. Fields is not that far off other QBs that made huge leaps in their 3rd years.

Fields comps pretty favorably to Hurts and Allen In their first two seasons:

20/21 Hurts 19 GS, 22-13 TD-INT, 5343 total yds, 13 Rushing TDs 
21/22 Fields 25 GS, 24-21 TD-INT, 5677 total yds, 10 Rushing TDs
18/19 Allen 27 GS, 30-21 TD-INT, 6304 total yds, 17 Rushing TDs

Yet Fields is the only QB they are worried about. Very odd.

 

The overall team narrative is tired. However, until the Bears actually win, the media will continue to repeat the shallow storyline.