Ray of Hope

[adam]

I was looking at some stats to see if there were other cases of QBs with similar stats to Fields after their second years, and surprisingly, there were actually quite a few and some that ended up very successful.

Here is a screenshot of the output.

16 QBs qualified, since 1980, in their first two seasons, totaled less than 30 TDs, more than 20 INTs, Comp % under 60, and yards less than 5000.

[adam]

14 first rounders and 6 #1 overall picks. Fields was actually the 4th latest draft slot of this group.

[AZ54]

You should get an Unsportsman Like penalty for making me see the name Rick Mirer again.  

It appears your filter was the Rating field.  I suspect if you expanded that just a bit to include a bit over 80 you might find that he's at the bottom of a cluster of players with a higher % of success.  In other words not all distributions are normal bell curve. 

Aikman was the really rare exception but I lived in DFW area during his first season and IIRC the Cowboys went through a massive roster overhaul (fire sale) and what he had to work with his first year.   Might be some parallels to what Fields suffered through last year, albeit in his second season.  

[adam]

16 hours ago, AZ54 said:

You should get an Unsportsman Like penalty for making me see the name Rick Mirer again.  

It appears your filter was the Rating field.  I suspect if you expanded that just a bit to include a bit over 80 you might find that he's at the bottom of a cluster of players with a higher % of success.  In other words not all distributions are normal bell curve. 

Aikman was the really rare exception but I lived in DFW area during his first season and IIRC the Cowboys went through a massive roster overhaul (fire sale) and what he had to work with his first year.   Might be some parallels to what Fields suffered through last year, albeit in his second season.  

Lol but in his Seattle days.

I sorted by Rating, but did not include it in the filter. The only other stat was sacks over 50. So basically Fields is the best of this group when it comes to rating, Comp%, and top 3 in TDs.

[adam]

16 hours ago, AZ54 said:

You should get an Unsportsman Like penalty for making me see the name Rick Mirer again.  

It appears your filter was the Rating field.  I suspect if you expanded that just a bit to include a bit over 80 you might find that he's at the bottom of a cluster of players with a higher % of success.  In other words not all distributions are normal bell curve. 

Aikman was the really rare exception but I lived in DFW area during his first season and IIRC the Cowboys went through a massive roster overhaul (fire sale) and what he had to work with his first year.   Might be some parallels to what Fields suffered through last year, albeit in his second season.  

If I switch things around, look for QBs with at least 4K yards, 24 TDs, less than 25 INTs, over 59% Comp rate, Fields ends up in a group of 24 QBs at #23 for QB Rating and dead last in yards and TDs. Trubisky was 15th for QB Rating, 19th in yards, 20th in TDs. So we have seen some pretty poor young QB play for quite some time.

[AZ54]

Greg Gabriel is on board.  He doesn't reference anything from team sources but on occasion he gets some insight from team insiders.  This just might be him looking at it from the outside but his experience combined with what he's seen gives him a lot of confidence in Fields.       

https://www.windycitygridiron.com/2023/7/11/23791003/chicago-bears-2023-the-year-that-justin-fields-lives-up-to-expectationsluke-getsy-ryan-poles

[ASHKUM BEAR]

7 hours ago, AZ54 said:

Greg Gabriel is on board.  He doesn't reference anything from team sources but on occasion he gets some insight from team insiders.  This just might be him looking at it from the outside but his experience combined with what he's seen gives him a lot of confidence in Fields.       

https://www.windycitygridiron.com/2023/7/11/23791003/chicago-bears-2023-the-year-that-justin-fields-lives-up-to-expectationsluke-getsy-ryan-poles

Gregs take makes since.  I've heard a few people state that this offense is difficult to learn as a QB/WR, then throw in WRs we had and the below average oline, it made Fields year two a disaster.  He might not light it up right away, but he will be improved.  I would say the same about Claypool too.  He struggled knowing his job right away.  He will get the grasp of it down in TC and be able to play a bigger role.  2024, the offense should be a good one while the D will be starting to spark.

[adam]

They need reps, a ton of them. Until they are comfortable with all the wrinkles, it will be clunky. They are still in the phase where they have to think about what they are doing, instead of it being instinctual. 

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, adam said:

They need reps, a ton of them. Until they are comfortable with all the wrinkles, it will be clunky. They are still in the phase where they have to think about what they are doing, instead of it being instinctual. 

right. a lot of these guys are the names of All Pro players in 2024 and/or 2025, but right now, they are football babies.

[AZ54]

1 hour ago, adam said:

They need reps, a ton of them. Until they are comfortable with all the wrinkles, it will be clunky. They are still in the phase where they have to think about what they are doing, instead of it being instinctual. 

Reps are on the menu...and it seems every WR on the roster is down there, along with the backup QBs, except Velus isn't listed.  

https://bearswire.usatoday.com/2023/07/14/bears-justin-fields-holds-offseason-workout-florida-darnell-mooney/

[Alaskan Grizzly]

14 hours ago, AZ54 said:

Reps are on the menu...and it seems every WR on the roster is down there, along with the backup QBs, except Velus isn't listed.  

Yeah all three QBs it says (a very good thing).  Also good to see Claypool there.  Also this Twitter thread mentions more than once that Moore and his wife are about to have a baby, so good to see his commitment.  Of note, no Tonyan on the list.  ??‍♂️
 

Hard to think when we’ve last had players purposefully meet off-season like this as many times as they have.   Justin sure is pushing that commitment to success and I’m here for it.

 

 

[Stinger226]

That is the exact reason, I think Justin will have a breakout type of year. He has leadership skills ,hard working, and commitment to be great.  Anyone remember when covid shutdown the Big Ten, he's the one that got the players together to demand they play the season, and it worked.  We are toying with the notion that he will be a good QB. I'm toying with the notion how great will he be? 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

51 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

Anyone remember when covid shutdown the Big Ten, he's the one that got the players together to demand they play the season, and it worked. 

In an extra piece of ironic trivia, current Bears Prez Kevin Warren (who was the Big 10 commish at the time) are well acquainted. And Warren has mad respect for Fields because of it.  In fact Warren showed up for Fields’ graduation from Ohio State this last summer.  
 

 

[Stinger226]

I think everyone agrees, last year and now are different. I know we have a long way to go but my trust is getting better. Of course, one big difference is Fields, but the regime running the Bears appear to know what their doing. Poles talks to everyone,  Pace showed up once or twice a year. Flus has players buying in , we will see the results very soon.

[jason]

On 7/7/2023 at 12:49 PM, adam said:

I was looking at some stats to see if there were other cases of QBs with similar stats to Fields after their second years, and surprisingly, there were actually quite a few and some that ended up very successful.

Here is a screenshot of the output.

16 QBs qualified, since 1980, in their first two seasons, totaled less than 30 TDs, more than 20 INTs, Comp % under 60, and yards less than 5000.

That is a scary list. Aside from a few hits, it's loaded with busts and guys who never reached their potential.

[AZ54]

 

[adam]

On 7/15/2023 at 11:06 PM, jason said:

That is a scary list. Aside from a few hits, it's loaded with busts and guys who never reached their potential.

It really is. No matter how you cut the stats up in the first two years, if you count all the games, the odds are against him but he still has a shot.

I would have to look back at some of the other QBs on the list, but I don't know if any had such a bad supporting cast and team the first two years, then got an influx of talent in Year 3 like he has. So it will definitely be one of the most interesting years we have had in a long time.

[Mongo3451]

2 minutes ago, adam said:

So it will definitely be one of the most interesting years 

Amen to that.  I remember 1984 and attending IU.  I talked so much Bears smack and got owned by the Redskins.  Next year was a different story...??