Roster Depth

[AZ54]

Gene Chamberlain put together a really good summary of our roster depth.  This is not a by-position analysis, he focus on the bottom third of the roster where you get your special teams players.  This is one aspect of what Poles did this offseason that is easily overlooked but I think this might become a strength of this team.  

https://www.si.com/nfl/bears/news/supporting-bears-cast-looking-stronger

[Stinger226]

Definitely a lot of players brought  in also contributed on STs last year. Better depth will give us better ST.

[BearFan PHX]

Poles has put some real players into important positions and developed a roster with good depth at most positions.

He's also been very disciplined, and not pulled the trigger on long term deals for B+ grade players. Sometimes that has meant that we have to ride with less than B+, for example at DE. But it's much better to be lacking at a position, and have a chance to fill it next year (or later this year) with a player who has A level upside, than it is to be stuck with a B+ level guy because youre paying him on a 4 year deal. We've seen that mistake over and over here in Chicago.

We may have holes this coming year, although not too many. But imagine, having avoided marrying those B players, what our roster and cap is going to look like in 2024.

I think we will be a legit SB contender with the window opening in 2024.

We have a bunch of the pieces already. Could they ascend this year? It's possible. Some prognosticators have us with 12 wins. I'm not sure of that, but it is possible. So is 7 wins. But yes, they could make a run early. But we are working toward a 2024 deadline, and that is the way to do it.

Poles is the real deal. Of course he will have some swings and misses. Perhaps Claypool will be one of them. But even so, Poles is avoiding so many short term traps, and has made enough good moves to say this guy knows what he is doing. Finally. Finally. Lets go.

[Stinger226]

Even though edge is still a weakness, Poles still added pieces at that position. The OL has been upgraded at 4 positions and usually you see a big jump in the second year for young players, Braxton Jones. 

Poles have strengthen every other group. Still the most important element for success this year is Justin Fields . I don't see any way this is a so so year for him. He has all the traits of a winner. Great leader, football intelligence, hard worker and  a small ego. Top athletics, and gifted legs and arm. 

Poles is set to roll this year . I know the plan was for 2024 to start the run but after this year Cunningham and Getsy are likely to be gone so I think the timetable has moved up. 

X

[BearFan PHX]

12 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

Even though edge is still a weakness, Poles still added pieces at that position. The OL has been upgraded at 4 positions and usually you see a big jump in the second year for young players, Braxton Jones. 

Poles have strengthen every other group. Still the most important element for success this year is Justin Fields . I don't see any way this is a so so year for him. He has all the traits of a winner. Great leader, football intelligence, hard worker and  a small ego. Top athletics, and gifted legs and arm. 

Poles is set to roll this year . I know the plan was for 2024 to start the run but after this year Cunningham and Getsy are likely to be gone so I think the timetable has moved up. 

X

Fully agree. Im just saying he resisted the temptation to sign or trade for one of the bigger names thinking he might get there this year, and waited because he obviously didnt think any of those guys were an A. That's discipline that will pay off over time.

[Mongo3451]

Whoa!  Pump the brakes on the kool-aid train fellas.  The year is still gonna be 2024 for the playoff run.  Unless Justin has a meteoric year, we won't even contend for the NFC North.  Sorry for being a buzz kill, but that's what friend are for, right?

[AZ54]

2 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

Whoa!  Pump the brakes on the kool-aid train fellas.  The year is still gonna be 2024 for the playoff run.  Unless Justin has a meteoric year, we won't even contend for the NFC North.  Sorry for being a buzz kill, but that's what friend are for, right?

Not ready to make a playoff run I agree but the NFC North?   There is no team in our division we can't compete with and I don't think that requires a meteoric improvement from Fields to do so.  

Detroit is largely the same team as last year and they added David Montgomery as their lead back but complimented by a smaller/faster Gibbs.  I didn't like Jack Campbell in the draft and he is struggling and already being talked about as a likely backup this year.  They did have some upgrades in the secondary but could have done much better if they had drafted well in Rd 1.  

Minn is in rebuild/retool mode... whatever you want to call it with Kirk Cousins at the helm.  They've lost Dalvin Cook and Adam Thielen (not a bad decision), and paid a lot of money for a broken down DE Marcus Davenport to help their pass rush.  

In back2back seasons the Packers have lost one of the best WRs and then QBs and they haven't replaced either with high end talent.  

I just don't see any NFC North team in a much better spot than we are.  I also don't see any easy wins but I think the division is wide open.  Fields is going to play better than last year but if he does take a massive step up then we immediately rise to the top in this division.   Week 1 is going to be an interesting bellwether for the year.  

At the link is a little more in depth analysis than my opinion.  I simply recall how well we competed in Weeks 5 through 12 before the wheels fell off late in the year.   https://www.si.com/nfl/bears/news/its-wide-open-in-nfc-north-if-bears-can-get-it-together

[Mongo3451]

52 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

Not ready to make a playoff run I agree but the NFC North?   There is no team in our division we can't compete with and I don't think that requires a meteoric improvement from Fields to do so.  

Detroit is largely the same team as last year and they added David Montgomery as their lead back but complimented by a smaller/faster Gibbs.  I didn't like Jack Campbell in the draft and he is struggling and already being talked about as a likely backup this year.  They did have some upgrades in the secondary but could have done much better if they had drafted well in Rd 1.  

Minn is in rebuild/retool mode... whatever you want to call it with Kirk Cousins at the helm.  They've lost Dalvin Cook and Adam Thielen (not a bad decision), and paid a lot of money for a broken down DE Marcus Davenport to help their pass rush.  

In back2back seasons the Packers have lost one of the best WRs and then QBs and they haven't replaced either with high end talent.  

I just don't see any NFC North team in a much better spot than we are.  I also don't see any easy wins but I think the division is wide open.  Fields is going to play better than last year but if he does take a massive step up then we immediately rise to the top in this division.   Week 1 is going to be an interesting bellwether for the year.  

At the link is a little more in depth analysis than my opinion.  I simply recall how well we competed in Weeks 5 through 12 before the wheels fell off late in the year.   https://www.si.com/nfl/bears/news/its-wide-open-in-nfc-north-if-bears-can-get-it-together

I see us as 3rd place in the division.  Too many young guns need to become seasoned vets before we contend for the division.  That's why I stated Justin would require a big jump for us to contend for the North. I really hope I'm wrong.  The talent and depth is night and day from last year.  There will be a great deal to talk about this year.

[BearFan PHX]

4 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

Whoa!  Pump the brakes on the kool-aid train fellas.  The year is still gonna be 2024 for the playoff run.  Unless Justin has a meteoric year, we won't even contend for the NFC North.  Sorry for being a buzz kill, but that's what friend are for, right?

I agree our window wont truly open until 2024, but I see 7 to 10 wins possible with this team depending on how they gel.

We could well see a playoff game, but I agree with you that I dont think we will see a playoff "run"

[adam]

Jacksonville went 3-14 to 9-8. That also included a coaching and scheme change. 

Comparing the teams, Fields vs Lawrence is a wash, Etienne/Robinson vs Herbert/Foreman is also probably a wash. WRs? Kirk/Jones/Jones vs Moore/Mooney/Claypool, edge Bears. TEs? Engram/Arnold vs Kmet/Tonyan, edge Bears. For O-Line, edge Jags until we see what the Bears unit can do.

So it is not out of the realm of possible for the Bears to get 8 or 9 wins and be in the playoff hunt. The division is a lot weaker than it has been in a long time. 

[BearFan PHX]

56 minutes ago, adam said:

Jacksonville went 3-14 to 9-8. That also included a coaching and scheme change. 

Comparing the teams, Fields vs Lawrence is a wash, Etienne/Robinson vs Herbert/Foreman is also probably a wash. WRs? Kirk/Jones/Jones vs Moore/Mooney/Claypool, edge Bears. TEs? Engram/Arnold vs Kmet/Tonyan, edge Bears. For O-Line, edge Jags until we see what the Bears unit can do.

So it is not out of the realm of possible for the Bears to get 8 or 9 wins and be in the playoff hunt. The division is a lot weaker than it has been in a long time. 

I think a lot of the pieces of the 2024+ run are in place. They need to gel and grow, that can happen faster or not as fast. Un,ikely but possible to start peaking this year, especially in December.

One thing that's going to be lacking though is the pass rush. And that's a big thing. Add that piece, and we are half a year ahead.

This roster, plus two more DEs: a dominant DE and also another pretty good DE, would be ready to contend on paper. A lot of younger players still need to grow into their roles, but they are the guys we are going to war with. At that point, you can tinker with another WR or TE, maybe another player in the secondary, but your core would be set.

Without those DEs, especially the first round star type, it's a very different story. They probably come in next years draft. but who knows whether someone already on the team ascends to be that pretty good DE, and I dunno who we might acquire before the season starts.

The smart bet is that the window opens for real in 2024, but we have a bunch of the pieces here already, and who knows whether they might catch critical mass and be a team in December?

I also klnow we need a swing OT, but that doesnt really affect our status as contenders per se.

I say 8 wins, maybe 10 and a possible short lived playoff appearance.

[Stinger226]

Saying we can make a run for a playoff spot is totally because of two reasons. Not a strong division and the breakout of Justin Fields. If Justin breaks out its not going to be over 3000 yds and 24 TDs. Its going to be a giant step. Pushing 4000 yds and 30 TDs. Add in selective running and you have a star. Yes Im being overly optimist even with  a lot of question marks. The improvement on the offense has less questions than the defense will be based off of how well our pass rush improves. RB group is one of the leagues strongest. WR group has potential to be one of the top 10 groups in the league. We now have two viable TEs and the OL in stronger at 4 positions. Yes there will be injuries and it will guide what happens but our depth is better now. 

[BearFan PHX]

16 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

Saying we can make a run for a playoff spot is totally because of two reasons. Not a strong division and the breakout of Justin Fields. If Justin breaks out its not going to be over 3000 yds and 24 TDs. Its going to be a giant step. Pushing 4000 yds and 30 TDs. Add in selective running and you have a star. Yes Im being overly optimist even with  a lot of question marks. The improvement on the offense has less questions than the defense will be based off of how well our pass rush improves. RB group is one of the leagues strongest. WR group has potential to be one of the top 10 groups in the league. We now have two viable TEs and the OL in stronger at 4 positions. Yes there will be injuries and it will guide what happens but our depth is better now. 

I disagree. Even if Fields breaks out, this team is going to run the ball, and I dont see a 4,000 yard passing year for Fields. If he DOES throw that much, we are in real trouble.

Also, making a run for a wildcard spot, or even winning the division because other teams fail isnt the same as being a top 6 dominant team. We are not going to be that in 2023, no matter how much we come together.

For example, two years from now, Tyrique Stevenson may well be a serious shut down corner with league wide attention. But this year he is going to be a rookie, and he is going to make mistakes. Think of last year how Gordon and Brisker looked in the first half of the season. He has a lot of talent, and he is going to make plays, but he is also going to make mistakes and learn.

Ditto on the D line, where some positions dont even have the rookie who is going to ascend on the roster yet!

Will Claypool grow? etc

We are relying on a LOT of young players to grow. And they will, but this is not a team that's gonna make a run in the playoffs.

10 wins and a playoff loss would be an excellent outcome for this team for 2023.

Give this roster two more first round picks and a year of experience, and it's a whole other thing. That's 2024.

[Mongo3451]

3 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

I disagree. Even if Fields breaks out, this team is going to run the ball, and I dont see a 4,000 yard passing year for Fields. If he DOES throw that much, we are in real trouble.

Also, making a run for a wildcard spot, or even winning the division because other teams fail isnt the same as being a top 6 dominant team. We are not going to be that in 2023, no matter how much we come together.

100%.  I don't think any of us doubts the Bears are going to be greatly improved.  3-14 was no joke.  Sure we were in some games and had a chance.  On the other hand, truly believe teams slept on us.  Not this year; so a tight game game against the Eagles should lead to another tight game against the Eagles with the same outcome.(We improve, so they use a little more of their A game on us)  As an up and coming team, they'll have to learn how to close out the big games.  That also means they'll have to earn the respect of the officiating crew, as the good teams usually get the most breaks.  This will be a good growth year with some really hard to swallow losses, due to them whooping ass in the process.

[BearFan PHX]

2 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

100%.  I don't think any of us doubts the Bears are going to be greatly improved.  3-14 was no joke.  Sure we were in some games and had a chance.  On the other hand, truly believe teams slept on us.  Not this year; so a tight game game against the Eagles should lead to another tight game against the Eagles with the same outcome.(We improve, so they use a little more of their A game on us)  As an up and coming team, they'll have to learn how to close out the big games.  That also means they'll have to earn the respect of the officiating crew, as the good teams usually get the most breaks.  This will be a good growth year with some really hard to swallow losses, due to them whooping ass in the process.

yeah this is how I see it too. A lot fo these guys are gonna be the guys that contend for a Super Bowl, but first they have to learn how to win in the NFL, and a few of them (next years top picks) aren't on the team yet!

[Stinger226]

 Not sure if my statement came across clear, I never said we will be a dominant team. Running to a  playoff spot is not the same a run to the SB or even one of the better teams in the NFC. I don't see a strong team in the North. Detroit is not a bottom feeder but Jared Goff ain't taking them to the promise land. Jordon Love is  not making anyone forget Rodgers. If Fields averages 200 yds passing a game that's 3400 for the yr. I think he does better than that. I think we win 10 games, that's not dominant but that's not last place in the division either. Yes we will run the ball but my basis is on the fact we will be near the league average of 512 passing attempts on the yr. Eagles had 536 passing atps. and 544 rushing atps.I think we will be around 500 in both rush and pass.